pepe1991 wrote:So both moderators were arguing me how it's still much better to improve odds by sucking, when i said you can't suck your path toward great picks, and now they are ones who are doing demage control and telling people how being 2# worst or 6# worst isn't big deal?
It's not damage control, and it's contextually a different point than the points you were trying to make when it came to losing. I still want us to have a high floor and finish second worst, but I am acutely aware that the top 4 odds are not that much greater from that position compared to 5th. That's my personal opinion but I'm not going to get pissed if the young guys win games. It happens and it's not something I have control over. I think if you are going to be a bad team, trying to maximize your draft position is the smart thing to do. For the most part, we've played young guys and rode with really bad lineups and still won games. If we're winning with all veterans it's a different story.
And it's also specifically responding to people that think we're losing out on a top pick 4 because of us winning these games when in reality we're lowering our floor. So I'm trying to point out that if people are worried about the top 4 chances being gone, that's not the thing to freak out about.. it's if we're worried about Kuminga turning into Barnes or Kispert or Moody or something.
Ending up 29th in standings means you will have 52,1% chance at keeping top 4 pick, and you can't fall pass 6.
Only actual way how team COULD fall out of 4 is if somehow all 4 drawn picks end up not being owned by 29th worst team NOR 30th worst team. There is very, very little probabilty of it . Average pick range for 29th worst record is 3rd to 4th.
Average pick range for 25th worst team ( 6th worst record) is 5th or 6th.
Again, most people don't really understand how lottery is even played out. Only 4 picks are drawn 1,2,3 and 4th. All other picks are in seeding order. It's not JUST about odds, it's about where you are slotted after if don't win lottery and you are not drawn with 4 balls.
If 4 teams jump over 29th and 30# worst team, they are guaranteed 5th and 6th pick. IF that happends and Magic are not among those 4 jumping teams, Magic are drafting 9th from 25th spot.
Also in this draft in particular, if you don't have top 4 pick ( Mobley, Cade, Suggs or Green) it's terrible draft to have two mid first round lottery picks because this is very bad draft when it comes to depth of talent. This is probably worst lottery in years anyway.
This idea that you will offer somebody Kispert and Mitchell and they will trade you Cade or Suggs is hilarious. It's like offering Thon Maker and Chriss Dunn for Ben Simmons. It's fan -fiction and it doesn't matter how many picks you attach to it, that trade won't happen.
Lottery is still lottery and luck will play big part of Magic future.
For the most part, we've played young guys and rode with really bad lineups and still won games. If we're winning with all veterans it's a different story.
This is just bu*** argument and you know it. It doesn't matter. You are not winning because you are beating some high level contending teams that give their apsolute best just can't beat your young, upcomming stars, you play esencially Cavs third stringers with your own young third stringers, who, just like Cavs or Pistons third stringers, are projected to be career backups who won't do anything for you.
Pistons send you roster with tallest player being 6'8 and your two centers + Wagner score 43 points on them. Is that "winning by young players"?
You beat Cavs in game where Kevin Love looks like lucky fan selected to play a game by Dwayne Bacon (26) and Gery Harris (28) combine for 35 points.
You beat Memphis on buzzerbeater but who actually wins that game? Mo Wagner ( 24 points, 24 years, basically out of nba) and again Dwayne Bacon ( 23 points , 26 years old).
There is not single player on current Orlando Magic worth "letting lose" if that means winning games. Not a single one. There is not a single aveliable young player that will carry this team anywhere nor be part of "winning " roster. What they are doing now is finding "pride" in winning games against equally terrible team that they outhustle because they are allowed to do so.
You have Hampton ( definition of G league player ) and Cole Anthony ( definition of player that will never be positive contributor ) barking on twitter how they are not going to tank.
Congratulations, among G league rosters remaining in nba, Magic might have most prideful one.
Prediction day after Vuc, Gordon, Evan departure - most fans who are celebrating birth of new rebuild will be crying how rebuild is painful before 2022-23 season ends.
Date of writeup: March 26th, 2021.