ImageImageImageImage

Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th

Moderators: Knightro, SOUL, Def Swami, Howard Mass, UCFJayBird, UCF, ChosenSavior

User avatar
SOUL
Forum Mod - Magic
Forum Mod - Magic
Posts: 45,895
And1: 26,669
Joined: Dec 11, 2006
Location: 트와이스
     

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#41 » by SOUL » Wed May 26, 2021 10:48 pm

drsd wrote:
SOUL wrote:If we do it's probably a stash. I don't see us taking on 3 rookies on a team with 8-9 young guys already.


To be fair, Orlando played six rookies this year: Okeke, Anthony, Hampton, Mané, Cannady, and Franks.


To put it in a drsd-esque post:

If HC Clifford wants to make it through the year without losing his mind completely, we will only bring two more rookies on. :lol:
User avatar
KillMonger
RealGM
Posts: 12,365
And1: 6,089
Joined: Oct 13, 2012
     

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#42 » by KillMonger » Thu May 27, 2021 12:19 am

RookieStar wrote:
KillMonger wrote:
Creativetran wrote:First draw today after reading your post, Magic 1 and bulls pick 8...PLEASE MAKE IT HAPPEN BBALL GODS, we have had crap luck these past 10 years in the lotto.

Cade and Jalen Johnson would be a nice haul....hopefully we actually use our second rounder as well


Im kinda leaning into this thinking as well. Cade of course would be the #1 trophy but as to the 2nd pick we have ,looking at the position we are thin at AND (for me anyway) no clear cut player separating himself from the rest of the pack in the 6-12 range, why not Jalen right? ( This of course is contingent upon the fact that our FO talked to him and comes out knowing there isn't something wrong in his head to always run away when going gets tough)

2nd rounder.. I at first want one of the big pure shooting PF/C in the draft like Luka, PEtrusev, Huff , Hurt and etc.. but if we keep Wagner, then I can live with choosing maybe a PG for this

I mean the talent is certainly there but his interviews will be a good opportunity to really see what's going on with him between the ears....but look at his per36 numbers vs scottie barnes....comparable....although the caveat is jalen only played 13 games so the sample is small but....

Jalen: 19 points/10 rebounds/4 assists/2 blocks/2 steals
Barnes: 15 points/6 rebounds/6 assists/1 block/2 steals

very comparable...small sample but if you put any stock in jalen green/kuminga stats you should put some stock in Jalen Johnsons' as well as they played a similar amount of games....he needs to answer the questions about his character though....i look at Jalen Johnson and for whatever reason i'm thinking julius randle
Image

FREE MO BAMBA......R.I.P DMX ....... FREE MO BAMBA......R.I.P DMX
User avatar
RookieStar
RealGM
Posts: 11,791
And1: 2,635
Joined: Jul 01, 2009
 

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#43 » by RookieStar » Thu May 27, 2021 1:50 am

KillMonger wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
KillMonger wrote:Cade and Jalen Johnson would be a nice haul....hopefully we actually use our second rounder as well


Im kinda leaning into this thinking as well. Cade of course would be the #1 trophy but as to the 2nd pick we have ,looking at the position we are thin at AND (for me anyway) no clear cut player separating himself from the rest of the pack in the 6-12 range, why not Jalen right? ( This of course is contingent upon the fact that our FO talked to him and comes out knowing there isn't something wrong in his head to always run away when going gets tough)

2nd rounder.. I at first want one of the big pure shooting PF/C in the draft like Luka, PEtrusev, Huff , Hurt and etc.. but if we keep Wagner, then I can live with choosing maybe a PG for this

I mean the talent is certainly there but his interviews will be a good opportunity to really see what's going on with him between the ears....but look at his per36 numbers vs scottie barnes....comparable....although the caveat is jalen only played 13 games so the sample is small but....

Jalen: 19 points/10 rebounds/4 assists/2 blocks/2 steals
Barnes: 15 points/6 rebounds/6 assists/1 block/2 steals

very comparable...small sample but if you put any stock in jalen green/kuminga stats you should put some stock in Jalen Johnsons' as well as they played a similar amount of games....he needs to answer the questions about his character though....i look at Jalen Johnson and for whatever reason i'm thinking julius randle


Yeah.. character and smarts. He gets a reputation of a quitter with what he did to 2 of his high school and more glaringly with what he did at Duke. The question is if that is his character or its because as a kid, he is forced to do those by his "handlers"

But as i have said, skill-wise and measurements he belongs to the top 10.
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,837
And1: 5,317
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#44 » by drsd » Thu May 27, 2021 9:08 pm

SOUL wrote:To put it in a drsd-esque post:

If HC Clifford wants to make it through the year without losing his mind completely, we will only bring two more rookies on. :lol:


Where is the And-2 button?

..
User avatar
Xatticus
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,930
And1: 5,596
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
Location: the land of the blind
         

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#45 » by Xatticus » Fri May 28, 2021 12:37 am

SOUL wrote:
drsd wrote:
SOUL wrote:If we do it's probably a stash. I don't see us taking on 3 rookies on a team with 8-9 young guys already.


To be fair, Orlando played six rookies this year: Okeke, Anthony, Hampton, Mané, Cannady, and Franks.


To put it in a drsd-esque post:

If HC Clifford wants to make it through the year without losing his mind completely, we will only bring two more rookies on. :lol:


Let's do the six-rookie thing again then just to be sure.

Clifford knows this is his last head coaching job in the NBA and he probably won't let it go. If he were leaving, he would've done so already, I think. This front office is probably very reluctant to make a change as well. Firing a coach you hired is a tacit admission of failure. Clifford's contract is winding down though, so we can rectify this problem while still saving face as long as we don't give him an extension.

There are better coaches out there without jobs right now. That doesn't necessarily mean I would make the switch to someone like Joerger, but I'd hope that our front office is vigorously scouring CVs to try to unearth the next promising coach that hasn't yet been afforded an opportunity. There is zero reason to hitch your wagon to a lower-tier retread that has never had any meaningful success when guys like Nurse, Daignault, Finch, Jenkins, etc... hit the ground running as soon as they step into the league. You should never be satisfied having the 25th best out of 30 for anything. You should aspire for more.
"Xatticus has always been, in my humble opinion best poster here. Should write articles or something."
-pepe1991
jonbob17
Pro Prospect
Posts: 781
And1: 429
Joined: Jul 01, 2020

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#46 » by jonbob17 » Fri May 28, 2021 5:42 pm

Xatticus wrote:
SOUL wrote:
drsd wrote:
To be fair, Orlando played six rookies this year: Okeke, Anthony, Hampton, Mané, Cannady, and Franks.


To put it in a drsd-esque post:

If HC Clifford wants to make it through the year without losing his mind completely, we will only bring two more rookies on. :lol:


Let's do the six-rookie thing again then just to be sure.

Clifford knows this is his last head coaching job in the NBA and he probably won't let it go. If he were leaving, he would've done so already, I think. This front office is probably very reluctant to make a change as well. Firing a coach you hired is a tacit admission of failure. Clifford's contract is winding down though, so we can rectify this problem while still saving face as long as we don't give him an extension.

There are better coaches out there without jobs right now. That doesn't necessarily mean I would make the switch to someone like Joerger, but I'd hope that our front office is vigorously scouring CVs to try to unearth the next promising coach that hasn't yet been afforded an opportunity. There is zero reason to hitch your wagon to a lower-tier retread that has never had any meaningful success when guys like Nurse, Daignault, Finch, Jenkins, etc... hit the ground running as soon as they step into the league. You should never be satisfied having the 25th best out of 30 for anything. You should aspire for more.



He's not that bad, Clifford is cut from the same cloth as Thibedou. They are going to come in and raise the floor, and they are going to grind out wins for a few years with defense and limiting mistakes, and then their style will start to wear on the group and the team will have to find someone more player-centric. That the Magic are taking a step back and not likely to be a serious playoff contender next year is probably why they should find someone new. I expect them to part ways with Clifford after the draft, or maybe even the lottery should we secure a top 2-3 and know who we are going to take. Guess it could be right after finals too.

Clifford is perfect for teams with decent talent that are under performing. Would love to see him with some real players, but also not sure if he would be the right personality for the type of players it takes to win championships.
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,837
And1: 5,317
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#47 » by drsd » Fri May 28, 2021 6:17 pm

jonbob17 wrote:They are going to come in and raise the floor, and they are going to grind out wins for a few years with defense and limiting mistakes, and then their style will start to wear on the group and the team will have to find someone more player-centric.


This reminds me of Doug Collins leading to Phil Jackson.


..
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,837
And1: 5,317
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#48 » by drsd » Fri May 28, 2021 9:54 pm

Knightro wrote:If my math is correct...

20.2% chance of losing the pick via Chicago hitting the draft lottery.

34.5% chance of 8th pick
36.2% chance of 9th pick
8.5% chance of 10th pick
0.5% chance of 11th pick
Less than >0.0 of 12th pick


I got all excited about the Magic being 8th, and forgot that this had nothing to do with the lottery itself; it is what happens if Chicago and one of the teams tied both (or all three) do not win the lottery.

Chicago's odds to go top 4 are 20.27%; you were right all along! This is a three-way split of 135 lottery tickets in the 1000 combos.

In that sense, that Chicago tied New Orleans and Sacramento but then went on to win the coin toss is the best case scenario for Orlando. The Magic get the best pick possible whilst having the lowest odds possible of losing the pick.


..
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,837
And1: 5,317
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#49 » by drsd » Fri May 28, 2021 9:57 pm

drsd wrote:
Knightro wrote:If the Bulls had been solo 8th, their odds would have been 26.2% instead of 20.2%.


For completeness, odds for going top-4 collectively:
8 is 26.30%
9 is 20.27%
10 is 13.88%

..


This is incorrect. Sacramento, New Orleans and Chicago all have a 20.27% chance to go top-4.

..
User avatar
fendilim
RealGM
Posts: 27,970
And1: 3,861
Joined: Jun 11, 2002
Location: 孫悟空, 时间太?!

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#50 » by fendilim » Sat May 29, 2021 3:00 am

SOUL wrote:History of 8th seed is kinda **** lately but it used to produce a lot of really good picks. Let's hope Chicago doesn't move up and we can grab two good prospects!

Speaking of history, What’s the history of the 8th seed jumping to the top 3 picks?
Image
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 29,837
And1: 5,317
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Bulls Win NBA Draft Lotto Coin Flip, Officially Slotted 8th 

Post#51 » by drsd » Sat May 29, 2021 6:59 am

fendilim wrote:
SOUL wrote:History of 8th seed is kinda **** lately but it used to produce a lot of really good picks. Let's hope Chicago doesn't move up and we can grab two good prospects!

Speaking of history, What’s the history of the 8th seed jumping to the top 3 picks?


2020: Hornets up to 3
2019: (3-ay tie for 8/9/10): Pelicans up to 1, Grizzlies up to 2, Mavericks dropped to 10
2018: Nets at 8
2017: Mavericks down to 9
2016: (3-ay tie for 8/9/10): Kings at 8, Raptors*(via trade) at 9, Bucks at 10
2015: Pistons at 8
2014: Pistons down to 9
2013: Wizards up to 3
2012: Raptors at 8
2011: Cavaliers*(via trade) up to 1

Interesting to see the 8 moving up more frequently than any other option; notable is that there were much poorer odds for some of these jumps, which still happened.

..

Return to Orlando Magic