James Bouknight, and ending a 2 decade drought

[D J C]

The draft thread has been debating a lot about Bouknight lately as he's been 'climbing' up perceived draft boards. I think he deserves his own thread at this point as he's a legit option at #8 (and some are even debating #5)..

First and foremost, Bouknight is a scorer. We need scorers.. there's solid pieces on the roster but realistically there's no one that we can predict will be getting 20+ PPG and be a 1st option on offense right now. The only player on our roster that has touched 15 PPG even has been T Ross (im not counting the shell of Gary Harris) and no one is going to argue he should be a lead man.

Since TMac, we've had a drought of not having a 25+ PPG player, or even a 20+ PPG guard/wing scorer, in the last 18 years. Every other team in the league has had those. We've had a severe starvation for offense for too long and it needs to be addressed over all else.

That leads me right into some of the positives for Bouknight..

18.7 PPG | 23.7 PTS/PER40 | 35.7 PTS/100 Possessions
23.2 PER | 54.6% TS | 52.8% 2PT

He can score. Those numbers stack up against any SG prospect you can pull out. Even with his injury and dip in 3pt shooting, his overall TS% stayed above average and his 2PT% is one of the top you'll find among top guard prospects.

Athletically, his first step and ball handling are two of his strengths as a prospect. He's 6'5 in shoes and has a 6'8+ wingspan and 8'5 standing reach. Size isn't a plus persay, but it shouldn't be a problem.

His two biggest knocks that people bring up are his low 3PT shooting, and his low assist numbers. Context helps explain both of these.

First, his 3PT shooting:

As a freshman he shot 34.7% from 3 on a decent amount of attempts and showed promise. His sophomore year started out at a bit of a slump and shooting 33% from 3, then his elbow injury happened. When he came back that dipped even lower and brought his season average down to 29.3% from 3.. well below average.

So why the expectation that his 3pt will improve in the league? A few reasons..

Injury
The most documented reason.. elbow surgery right in middle of the season. Shooting 45/32.4/80.6 and 20.3 PPG to start the year, and dropped to 44.5/26.8/75.6 and 17.7 PPG when he returned. Clearly not 100%, but still played through and was the teams only legit scoring option.

Difficulty
Nearly of his 3pt attempts his senior year were pull up 3s, the hardest 3 you can take. He only took 2 pull up 3s all year his freshman year. Those pull ups definitely pulled down his overall %, especially considering the injury. For comparison, this past year on those shots: Jaylen Brown, Sexton, Beal and Booker shot 31%.. James Harden, Donovan Mitchell and Kyrie were around 36%.

Necessity
Bouknight had to carry the offense, and he's said as much that he didn't play as his true self because he knew that. For example, his final game (vs Maryland in the tourney), he shot 1/6 from 3 which is not good. It got .5 PTS per possession. But look at the rest of the team for the game.. if you take out Bouknight's play they only made 15 FG total and shot 30.5% from the field and had 7 turnovers.. the team really had no other option but for Bouknight to try to carry them.

Also, you look at his games were he shot his worst from 3.. 0-4 vs DePaul in a 21 point win, 0-4 vs Marquette in a 18 point win, 0-4 vs DePaul in a 34 point win, 0-3 vs Creighton in a 3 point loss, and 1-6 vs Maryland in a 9 point loss. I touched on the Maryland game already, but the other games you can see its not like he's shooting his team out of games with low IQ shots.. they were all blowouts.

Next, his low assist numbers..

Just by looking at his 12.8% assist percentage, he wasn't awful or really below average for a SG. Not ideal, but for comparison the final years of college for a few players:

Booker - 10.8%
Murray - 12.1%
Lavine - 12.6%
Beal - 12.7%
Jaylen Brown - 15.3%
Mitchell - 16%

Bouknight's team didn’t do him any favors either.. they were 249th in the nation in 2P% and 184th in the nation in 3P%. Also, under Hurley, the team has never been better than 194th in the nation is APG. I think that context is important here.

Some people want to say he didn't elevate the teams play because of his low assist numbers, but when you look past that you're talking about a team that was 11-4 with him and made it into the tourney as a 7 seed, vs 4-4 without him. Two of those wins coming against a 10-15 Butler team and one win coming against a 5-14 Depaul. I don't think its really debatable that he had a huge impact.

Overall

Yes, there are risks with him and he's not the perfect prospect. There's a chance that those excuses above for his shot are just that, excuses.. and he never becomes a dependable outside shooter. There's a chance he developed some bad habits in college trying to be #1 but just doesn't have that ability in the league. We could play it safer and take a Moody, or Wagner, or Barnes and know that they are going to be positive contributors to our team, but even if they hit we are still left with a gaping hole of a legit scorer.

Bottom line, if i'm going to be on a prospect in this draft to be a #1 option for us, a legit go-to guy on a playoff team, something we haven't had in decades.. then I don't think that there is a better bet right now than Bouknight.

[PrimeThyme]

I’d take him at 5, personally.

Of all the prospects in the 5-10 range he has the skillset that most intrigues me. With us having another top 10 pick I think in this case If you believe in a player enough and are convinced he’s going to be the elite scorer he’s projected to be, you take him there and don’t risk him going before 8. That’s pretty common practice in the NFL.

If not for the injury, Bouknight would probably creep into that Green/Suggs/Mobley tier for me. He’s already at the edge of it now.

[arkknight1988]

I’d take him at 5, personally.

Of all the prospects in the 5-10 range he has the skillset that most intrigues me. With us having another top 10 pick I think in this case If you believe in a player enough and are convinced he’s going to be the elite scorer he’s projected to be, you take him there and don’t risk him going before 8. That’s pretty common practice in the NFL.

If not for the injury, Bouknight would probably creep into that Green/Suggs/Mobley tier for me. He’s already at the edge of it now.

I tend to agree, if he’s who we want then get him at 5. Maybe Barnes or Kuminga drop to 8. He has the potential to be a 1st option scorer.

Bouknight + Barnes would be a excellent draft IMO. I like Barnes more than Kuminga anyway.

[swarlesbarkley]

I'm down with Bouk. Just want us to take at least 1 guy with offensive skill. Kuminga + Bouk seems good. Even Barnes + Bouk would work.

I just don't want a Kuminga + Keon situation.

[basketballRob]

I think his knee problems with his meniscus will probably keep him out of the top 10.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[89Magicfan]

I think his knee problems with his meniscus will probably keep him out of the top 10.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Who? Bouk?

[tiderulz]

I think his knee problems with his meniscus will probably keep him out of the top 10.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

the knee injury before he turned 18 that doesnt seem to be an issue now? or a different one?

[basketballRob]

I think his knee problems with his meniscus will probably keep him out of the top 10.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

the knee injury before he turned 18 that doesnt seem to be an issue now? or a different one?

No he tore his meniscus before he was 18. It seems once you start having meniscus tears, it's always a lingering problem.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[tiderulz]

I like what i think Bouknight "could be". No prospect is perfect right now. If we cant get Jalen Green, Bouknight to me is a close 2nd. He is the same size as Green, Bouknight drew more fouls and FTA than Green (5.4 vs 2.3) which to me says he goes to the rim more. Translates into some easy points.

[tiderulz]

I think his knee problems with his meniscus will probably keep him out of the top 10.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

the knee injury before he turned 18 that doesnt seem to be an issue now? or a different one?

No he tore his meniscus before he was 18. It seems once you start having meniscus tears, it's always a lingering problem.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

so YES, the injury before he turned 18 which hasnt bothered him since. other players to have this tear, Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, CP3. I wont claim to be a doctor, but medicine seems to have progressed a lot that they should be able to tell if this would be a issue in the near future. And doesnt look like it will keep him out of the top-10 at all.

According to a 2012 study by the American Journal of Sports Medicine, 129 NBA players with meniscus tears over a 21-year span missed an average of 40 days. Research showed no statistical change in most injured players’ efficiency ratings once they returned to the court.

[basketballRob]

the knee injury before he turned 18 that doesnt seem to be an issue now? or a different one?

No he tore his meniscus before he was 18. It seems once you start having meniscus tears, it's always a lingering problem.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

so YES, the injury before he turned 18 which hasnt bothered him since. other players to have this tear, Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, CP3.

According to a 2012 study by the American Journal of Sports Medicine, 129 NBA players with meniscus tears over a 21-year span missed an average of 40 days. Research showed no statistical change in most injured players’ efficiency ratings once they returned to the court.

Yeah it takes 4-6 weeks to come back, but that doesn't mean that it might not linger.

His may have been a more severe one, because I think he missed significant time.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[tiderulz]

No he tore his meniscus before he was 18. It seems once you start having meniscus tears, it's always a lingering problem.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

so YES, the injury before he turned 18 which hasnt bothered him since. other players to have this tear, Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, CP3.

According to a 2012 study by the American Journal of Sports Medicine, 129 NBA players with meniscus tears over a 21-year span missed an average of 40 days. Research showed no statistical change in most injured players’ efficiency ratings once they returned to the court.

Yeah it takes 4-6 weeks to come back, but that doesn't mean that it might not linger.

His may have been a more severe one, because I think he missed significant time.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

what is significant time? he missed 4 months after surgery. that doesnt sound like a lot of time to me after surgery. I know after my abdominal surgery, i couldn't do a lot for 2 months

[basketballRob]

so YES, the injury before he turned 18 which hasnt bothered him since. other players to have this tear, Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, CP3.

Yeah it takes 4-6 weeks to come back, but that doesn't mean that it might not linger.

His may have been a more severe one, because I think he missed significant time.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

what is signification time? he missed 4 months after surgery. that doesnt sound like a lot of time to me after surgery. I know after my abdominal surgery, i could do a lot for 2 months

Some players can come back after 4-6 weeks depending I guess on what kind of tear they have. I don't think it took Porzingas long to come back last year. Embiid played on his this postseason, because it was a small tear. I think Aminu missed over a year.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[jayrehme]

I'm a huge fan of Bouknight.... now if Suggs is available at 5 and not Kuminga, which could be very likely, do you go Bouknight still?

[tiderulz]

I'm a huge fan of Bouknight.... now if Suggs is available at 5 and not Kuminga, which could be very likely, do you go Bouknight still?

personally, i take Suggs.

[D J C]

I'm a huge fan of Bouknight.... now if Suggs is available at 5 and not Kuminga, which could be very likely, do you go Bouknight still?

It's probably a very unpopular opinion, but I would be happier with Bouknight. Suggs is a safer bet to be a productive player, but I don't see as high of a ceiling with him. Suggs just scares me that he could just as likely be an Antonio Daniels/Devin Harris type of player, and I just dont see him turning into the elite scorer we desperately need.

I do see the appeal to Jalens Suggs, but look at his stats in conference play and the tourney:

Conference (15 games): 13.3 / 5.3 / 3.9 with 2.9 TOV on 48 / 25 / 78 splits
NCAA Tourney (6 games): 14.5 / 4.7 / 4.7 with 3.7 TOV on 47 / 28 / 86 splits

Impressive still for a freshman on a championship level team, but a certain step down from his overall numbers for the season.

The most concerning part on there is the 3 point shooting in those games, shooting under 30% from 3 for more games than Bouknight, while having the luxury of having the best offensive team and system in the nation around him.

His AST%, STL%, TS%, 2PT% and PTS/100 are promising and he is a very very good prospect, I just would rather take the risk on Bouknight.

[KillMonger]

If it's between Suggs and Bouknight.....then it's Bouknight easily for me....that being said at 5 i wouldn't select either

[D J C]

If it's between Suggs and Bouknight.....then it's Bouknight easily for me....that being said at 5 i wouldn't select either

Interesting.. so if the top 4 goes Cade - Green - Kuminga - Mobley, who do you have at 5? Scottie?

[RookieStar]

As said, I like Bouknight, been beating that drum ever since. However, im not a blind homer. #8 is the highest I will pick for him. No way will i pick him at 5. Well... GSW is rumored to take him at #7 though.

However, I will also admit his stock could drop down especially since Moody Wagner and J. Johnson still hasnt "shown their stuff" yet.

P.S. to those who really like J.Green, JB is perfect for you. Same physical measurement,
just 1-2 years older with comparable athleticism... alright maybe 10% less..

[Bensational]

I’m not a Bouknight fan, but I like that people are thinking outside of general projected rankings and looking for the guy who grabs them the most. Really appreciate the detail and effort put into the OP. Good discussion.