James Bouknight, and ending a 2 decade drought
Posted: Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:34 pm
The draft thread has been debating a lot about Bouknight lately as he's been 'climbing' up perceived draft boards. I think he deserves his own thread at this point as he's a legit option at #8 (and some are even debating #5)..
First and foremost, Bouknight is a scorer. We need scorers.. there's solid pieces on the roster but realistically there's no one that we can predict will be getting 20+ PPG and be a 1st option on offense right now. The only player on our roster that has touched 15 PPG even has been T Ross (im not counting the shell of Gary Harris) and no one is going to argue he should be a lead man.
Since TMac, we've had a drought of not having a 25+ PPG player, or even a 20+ PPG guard/wing scorer, in the last 18 years. Every other team in the league has had those. We've had a severe starvation for offense for too long and it needs to be addressed over all else.
That leads me right into some of the positives for Bouknight..
18.7 PPG | 23.7 PTS/PER40 | 35.7 PTS/100 Possessions
23.2 PER | 54.6% TS | 52.8% 2PT
He can score. Those numbers stack up against any SG prospect you can pull out. Even with his injury and dip in 3pt shooting, his overall TS% stayed above average and his 2PT% is one of the top you'll find among top guard prospects.
Athletically, his first step and ball handling are two of his strengths as a prospect. He's 6'5 in shoes and has a 6'8+ wingspan and 8'5 standing reach. Size isn't a plus persay, but it shouldn't be a problem.
His two biggest knocks that people bring up are his low 3PT shooting, and his low assist numbers. Context helps explain both of these.
First, his 3PT shooting:
As a freshman he shot 34.7% from 3 on a decent amount of attempts and showed promise. His sophomore year started out at a bit of a slump and shooting 33% from 3, then his elbow injury happened. When he came back that dipped even lower and brought his season average down to 29.3% from 3.. well below average.
So why the expectation that his 3pt will improve in the league? A few reasons..
Injury
The most documented reason.. elbow surgery right in middle of the season. Shooting 45/32.4/80.6 and 20.3 PPG to start the year, and dropped to 44.5/26.8/75.6 and 17.7 PPG when he returned. Clearly not 100%, but still played through and was the teams only legit scoring option.
Difficulty
Nearly of his 3pt attempts his senior year were pull up 3s, the hardest 3 you can take. He only took 2 pull up 3s all year his freshman year. Those pull ups definitely pulled down his overall %, especially considering the injury. For comparison, this past year on those shots: Jaylen Brown, Sexton, Beal and Booker shot 31%.. James Harden, Donovan Mitchell and Kyrie were around 36%.
Necessity
Bouknight had to carry the offense, and he's said as much that he didn't play as his true self because he knew that. For example, his final game (vs Maryland in the tourney), he shot 1/6 from 3 which is not good. It got .5 PTS per possession. But look at the rest of the team for the game.. if you take out Bouknight's play they only made 15 FG total and shot 30.5% from the field and had 7 turnovers.. the team really had no other option but for Bouknight to try to carry them.
Also, you look at his games were he shot his worst from 3.. 0-4 vs DePaul in a 21 point win, 0-4 vs Marquette in a 18 point win, 0-4 vs DePaul in a 34 point win, 0-3 vs Creighton in a 3 point loss, and 1-6 vs Maryland in a 9 point loss. I touched on the Maryland game already, but the other games you can see its not like he's shooting his team out of games with low IQ shots.. they were all blowouts.
Next, his low assist numbers..
Just by looking at his 12.8% assist percentage, he wasn't awful or really below average for a SG. Not ideal, but for comparison the final years of college for a few players:
Booker - 10.8%
Murray - 12.1%
Lavine - 12.6%
Beal - 12.7%
Jaylen Brown - 15.3%
Mitchell - 16%
Bouknight's team didn’t do him any favors either.. they were 249th in the nation in 2P% and 184th in the nation in 3P%. Also, under Hurley, the team has never been better than 194th in the nation is APG. I think that context is important here.
Some people want to say he didn't elevate the teams play because of his low assist numbers, but when you look past that you're talking about a team that was 11-4 with him and made it into the tourney as a 7 seed, vs 4-4 without him. Two of those wins coming against a 10-15 Butler team and one win coming against a 5-14 Depaul. I don't think its really debatable that he had a huge impact.
Overall
Yes, there are risks with him and he's not the perfect prospect. There's a chance that those excuses above for his shot are just that, excuses.. and he never becomes a dependable outside shooter. There's a chance he developed some bad habits in college trying to be #1 but just doesn't have that ability in the league. We could play it safer and take a Moody, or Wagner, or Barnes and know that they are going to be positive contributors to our team, but even if they hit we are still left with a gaping hole of a legit scorer.
Bottom line, if i'm going to be on a prospect in this draft to be a #1 option for us, a legit go-to guy on a playoff team, something we haven't had in decades.. then I don't think that there is a better bet right now than Bouknight.
First and foremost, Bouknight is a scorer. We need scorers.. there's solid pieces on the roster but realistically there's no one that we can predict will be getting 20+ PPG and be a 1st option on offense right now. The only player on our roster that has touched 15 PPG even has been T Ross (im not counting the shell of Gary Harris) and no one is going to argue he should be a lead man.
Since TMac, we've had a drought of not having a 25+ PPG player, or even a 20+ PPG guard/wing scorer, in the last 18 years. Every other team in the league has had those. We've had a severe starvation for offense for too long and it needs to be addressed over all else.
That leads me right into some of the positives for Bouknight..
18.7 PPG | 23.7 PTS/PER40 | 35.7 PTS/100 Possessions
23.2 PER | 54.6% TS | 52.8% 2PT
He can score. Those numbers stack up against any SG prospect you can pull out. Even with his injury and dip in 3pt shooting, his overall TS% stayed above average and his 2PT% is one of the top you'll find among top guard prospects.
Athletically, his first step and ball handling are two of his strengths as a prospect. He's 6'5 in shoes and has a 6'8+ wingspan and 8'5 standing reach. Size isn't a plus persay, but it shouldn't be a problem.
His two biggest knocks that people bring up are his low 3PT shooting, and his low assist numbers. Context helps explain both of these.
First, his 3PT shooting:
As a freshman he shot 34.7% from 3 on a decent amount of attempts and showed promise. His sophomore year started out at a bit of a slump and shooting 33% from 3, then his elbow injury happened. When he came back that dipped even lower and brought his season average down to 29.3% from 3.. well below average.
So why the expectation that his 3pt will improve in the league? A few reasons..
Injury
The most documented reason.. elbow surgery right in middle of the season. Shooting 45/32.4/80.6 and 20.3 PPG to start the year, and dropped to 44.5/26.8/75.6 and 17.7 PPG when he returned. Clearly not 100%, but still played through and was the teams only legit scoring option.
Difficulty
Nearly of his 3pt attempts his senior year were pull up 3s, the hardest 3 you can take. He only took 2 pull up 3s all year his freshman year. Those pull ups definitely pulled down his overall %, especially considering the injury. For comparison, this past year on those shots: Jaylen Brown, Sexton, Beal and Booker shot 31%.. James Harden, Donovan Mitchell and Kyrie were around 36%.
Necessity
Bouknight had to carry the offense, and he's said as much that he didn't play as his true self because he knew that. For example, his final game (vs Maryland in the tourney), he shot 1/6 from 3 which is not good. It got .5 PTS per possession. But look at the rest of the team for the game.. if you take out Bouknight's play they only made 15 FG total and shot 30.5% from the field and had 7 turnovers.. the team really had no other option but for Bouknight to try to carry them.
Also, you look at his games were he shot his worst from 3.. 0-4 vs DePaul in a 21 point win, 0-4 vs Marquette in a 18 point win, 0-4 vs DePaul in a 34 point win, 0-3 vs Creighton in a 3 point loss, and 1-6 vs Maryland in a 9 point loss. I touched on the Maryland game already, but the other games you can see its not like he's shooting his team out of games with low IQ shots.. they were all blowouts.
Next, his low assist numbers..
Just by looking at his 12.8% assist percentage, he wasn't awful or really below average for a SG. Not ideal, but for comparison the final years of college for a few players:
Booker - 10.8%
Murray - 12.1%
Lavine - 12.6%
Beal - 12.7%
Jaylen Brown - 15.3%
Mitchell - 16%
Bouknight's team didn’t do him any favors either.. they were 249th in the nation in 2P% and 184th in the nation in 3P%. Also, under Hurley, the team has never been better than 194th in the nation is APG. I think that context is important here.
Some people want to say he didn't elevate the teams play because of his low assist numbers, but when you look past that you're talking about a team that was 11-4 with him and made it into the tourney as a 7 seed, vs 4-4 without him. Two of those wins coming against a 10-15 Butler team and one win coming against a 5-14 Depaul. I don't think its really debatable that he had a huge impact.
Overall
Yes, there are risks with him and he's not the perfect prospect. There's a chance that those excuses above for his shot are just that, excuses.. and he never becomes a dependable outside shooter. There's a chance he developed some bad habits in college trying to be #1 but just doesn't have that ability in the league. We could play it safer and take a Moody, or Wagner, or Barnes and know that they are going to be positive contributors to our team, but even if they hit we are still left with a gaping hole of a legit scorer.
Bottom line, if i'm going to be on a prospect in this draft to be a #1 option for us, a legit go-to guy on a playoff team, something we haven't had in decades.. then I don't think that there is a better bet right now than Bouknight.
