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Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#541 » by pepe1991 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:57 am

basketballRob wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
basketballRob wrote:Are those your projections?

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that's from real GM.com

Cap space for 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 are already set. Salary cap won't exceed $120M mark until 2024-25. So your implications that salary cap will go to $170 in near future is simply data you made up.
MLE won't hit $12M a year mark until at least 2026. You said that MLE will hit $15M soon, by this projections, it won't reach that point until somewhere in 2030.

Regardless, paying Mikal Brdiges $25M in 2022 (119M cap space = 21% cap space) is equal as paying Ryan Anderson /Jabari Parker $20M in 2019. Simply overpay for little they offer.
I don't think the future salary cap is set, that's only projections, just like I'm doing. The NBA has never set the cap years in advance.

In this one it says 2027-28 that the cap will be 167m. That's closer to my projection. The one from capology is using percentages of past increases to come up with a projection. The one you posted is using past increases in terms of the total amount to come up with a projection, which I think is flawed.

It also says the MLE will be 14m.


https://www.capology.com/nba/salary-cap/projections/

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In this one it says 2027-28 that the cap will be 167m. That's closer to my projection

Witch is completley irrelevant since restricted free agents can't sign contracts longer than 4 years.

If Mikal, or any other nba free agent, signs for any other team but Suns, his contract expires at the end of 2025-26 season.


The one from capology is using percentages of past increases to come up with a projection.

Why do you use projections of salary from page that couldn't even get current salary cap right? Nor their salary from already finished season was right?
Salary cap for upcomming 2021-22 season is $112,414 000 , their projection was $125 000 000. From start their projection is dead wrong. They missed whole thing by massive $12M.

I assume whole carculator was based on 2019 salary talks before COVID and they simply didn't bother to fix it after economy went to garbage.

Image

This is official statment from nba.com

It's not hard to read it, compare it to capology and figure they simply missed whole thing. Even MLE was wrong. Capology MLE is 10,6M, actual MLE is $9,5 .
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#542 » by basketballRob » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:25 am

pepe1991 wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
that's from real GM.com

Cap space for 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 are already set. Salary cap won't exceed $120M mark until 2024-25. So your implications that salary cap will go to $170 in near future is simply data you made up.
MLE won't hit $12M a year mark until at least 2026. You said that MLE will hit $15M soon, by this projections, it won't reach that point until somewhere in 2030.

Regardless, paying Mikal Brdiges $25M in 2022 (119M cap space = 21% cap space) is equal as paying Ryan Anderson /Jabari Parker $20M in 2019. Simply overpay for little they offer.
I don't think the future salary cap is set, that's only projections, just like I'm doing. The NBA has never set the cap years in advance.

In this one it says 2027-28 that the cap will be 167m. That's closer to my projection. The one from capology is using percentages of past increases to come up with a projection. The one you posted is using past increases in terms of the total amount to come up with a projection, which I think is flawed.

It also says the MLE will be 14m.


https://www.capology.com/nba/salary-cap/projections/

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In this one it says 2027-28 that the cap will be 167m. That's closer to my projection

Witch is completley irrelevant since restricted free agents can't sign contracts longer than 4 years.

If Mikal, or any other nba free agent, signs for any other team but Suns, his contract expires at the end of 2025-26 season.


The one from capology is using percentages of past increases to come up with a projection.

Why do you use projections of salary from page that couldn't even get current salary cap right? Nor their salary from already finished season was right?
Salary cap for upcomming 2021-22 season is $112,414 000 , their projection was $125 000 000. From start their projection is dead wrong. They missed whole thing by massive $12M.

I assume whole carculator was based on 2019 salary talks before COVID and they simply didn't bother to fix it after economy went to garbage.

Image

This is official statment from nba.com

It's not hard to read it, compare it to capology and figure they simply missed whole thing. Even MLE was wrong. Capology MLE is 10,6M, actual MLE is $9,5 .
It's hard to predict the future salary cap, that's like predicting the stock market. Either way, 5 years from now, 25m will be a reasonable contract.

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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#543 » by Skybox » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:10 pm

Great. Let's pay him 25 5 years from now when it makes fiscal sense.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#544 » by pepe1991 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:30 pm

I'm not against getting solid role players. I'm against overpaying for their services.

Current landscape of nba contracts shows that not a single person who is payed $25M or more is "role player". All of those guys are either : allstar contenders, former allstars, allstars or at aspolute worst- failed projected allstars ( Wiggins ).
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#545 » by jonbob17 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:31 pm

pepe1991 wrote:I'm not against getting solid role players. I'm against overpaying for their services.

Current landscape of nba contracts shows that not a single person who is payed $25M or more is "role player". All of those guys are either : allstar contenders, former allstars, allstars or at aspolute worst- failed projected allstars ( Wiggins ).


Where does John Collins fall in with his 5/125. He's a nice player, but he doesn't scream all star. This is who you have to compare Bridges against. Guys from the prior year draft class who have signed their new deals/extensions.

Jarrett Allen. 5/100
Jonathan Isaac 4/69 injury discount

The best comparison for Bridges is OG Anunoby, who signed an extension at 4/72 last offseason. If he had waited to this offseason, he probably would have got significantly more as one of the best available (restricted) free agents. I guess that is the gamble of signing extension early, you outplay the deal before the deal starts. IMO OG is better, or at least more valuable, than Collins, especially when considering positional scarcity. Collins is a unique player, but give me the the wing who can guard the best players in the league.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#546 » by MagicMatic » Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:31 pm

They throw in a frp.

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ye6dtvmv

Wall/Cole
Suggs/RJ/Ross
House/Ross/Wagner
Isaac/Okeke
Carter/Mo/Lopez

Orlando isn’t competing and the price of getting off of a contract like Walls is a frp. In two years Orlando can use the expiring money towards resignings and a legitimate free agent for when the stars align.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#547 » by tiderulz » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:59 pm

jonbob17 wrote:Where does John Collins fall in with his 5/125. He's a nice player, but he doesn't scream all star. This is who you have to compare Bridges against. Guys from the prior year draft class who have signed their new deals/extensions.

Jarrett Allen. 5/100
Jonathan Isaac 4/69 injury discount

The best comparison for Bridges is OG Anunoby, who signed an extension at 4/72 last offseason. If he had waited to this offseason, he probably would have got significantly more as one of the best available (restricted) free agents. I guess that is the gamble of signing extension early, you outplay the deal before the deal starts. IMO OG is better, or at least more valuable, than Collins, especially when considering positional scarcity. Collins is a unique player, but give me the the wing who can guard the best players in the league.

Collins is a better player than Mikal Bridges and has more skills, imo
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#548 » by tiderulz » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:03 pm

MagicMatic wrote:They throw in a frp.

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ye6dtvmv

Wall/Cole
Suggs/RJ/Ross
House/Ross/Wagner
Isaac/Okeke
Carter/Mo/Lopez

Orlando isn’t competing and the price of getting off of a contract like Walls is a frp. In two years Orlando can use the expiring money towards resignings and a legitimate free agent for when the stars align.

Why does Houston do this? they arent competing either. They run Wall for 2 years giving Green a competent running mate in the back court (for the games he is healthy). But Houston isnt competing so they arent going to throw away a pick just to get off 2 years of Wall's deal.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#549 » by MagicMatic » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:23 am

tiderulz wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:They throw in a frp.

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ye6dtvmv

Wall/Cole
Suggs/RJ/Ross
House/Ross/Wagner
Isaac/Okeke
Carter/Mo/Lopez

Orlando isn’t competing and the price of getting off of a contract like Walls is a frp. In two years Orlando can use the expiring money towards resignings and a legitimate free agent for when the stars align.

Why does Houston do this? they arent competing either. They run Wall for 2 years giving Green a competent running mate in the back court (for the games he is healthy). But Houston isnt competing so they arent going to throw away a pick just to get off 2 years of Wall's deal.


True, but rumor is that Houston is shopping him anyway. I would imagine it would be mainly to break up his immovable contract in order to resign Christian Wood and others.

Easier to offload a few medium priced guys rather than a guy that many teams simply cannot acquire for cap purposes.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#550 » by Xatticus » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:31 am

tiderulz wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:Where does John Collins fall in with his 5/125. He's a nice player, but he doesn't scream all star. This is who you have to compare Bridges against. Guys from the prior year draft class who have signed their new deals/extensions.

Jarrett Allen. 5/100
Jonathan Isaac 4/69 injury discount

The best comparison for Bridges is OG Anunoby, who signed an extension at 4/72 last offseason. If he had waited to this offseason, he probably would have got significantly more as one of the best available (restricted) free agents. I guess that is the gamble of signing extension early, you outplay the deal before the deal starts. IMO OG is better, or at least more valuable, than Collins, especially when considering positional scarcity. Collins is a unique player, but give me the the wing who can guard the best players in the league.

Collins is a better player than Mikal Bridges and has more skills, imo


It's a moot conversation. One has signed an extension. The other hasn't.

I don't really know what additional skills Collins has? They play different positions, so any comparison is going to be subjective and relative to need. Collins is a good roll man. That's fine. It's not a quality you seek from a wing. Collins' value is going to depend heavily on whether or not the other team has someone on the floor that he can defend.

Bridges is a really good shooter. He is an exceptional finisher. He is a plus defender that you will never have to pull off the floor at the end of the game. He has played as many minutes as Collins has in one fewer season. He has topped 2k minutes in every season. Collins hasn't topped 2k minutes in any season. You'd be locking up a young player that is going to give you a ton of really quality minutes and has yet to show any signs of stagnated development. You might be overpaying the market, but you aren't going to overpay on his production. That contract will not be a problem barring some catastrophic injury.

He'd immediately be the best player we have had since Howard's departure. If Suggs hits and/or Isaac finds his fitness, then we have a core. I think the biggest risk you run by adding Bridges to your roster is that he masks the deficiencies of some of your other pieces. That's obviously not a bad thing unless it leads you to overvalue the quality of those other pieces.

Phoenix is in a weird spot. The clock is ticking on Chris Paul. Can they afford to keep Bridges after they re-sign Ayton? If they decide that they can't, then their window is going to close at some point in the next couple years.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#551 » by tiderulz » Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:13 am

Xatticus wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:Where does John Collins fall in with his 5/125. He's a nice player, but he doesn't scream all star. This is who you have to compare Bridges against. Guys from the prior year draft class who have signed their new deals/extensions.

Jarrett Allen. 5/100
Jonathan Isaac 4/69 injury discount

The best comparison for Bridges is OG Anunoby, who signed an extension at 4/72 last offseason. If he had waited to this offseason, he probably would have got significantly more as one of the best available (restricted) free agents. I guess that is the gamble of signing extension early, you outplay the deal before the deal starts. IMO OG is better, or at least more valuable, than Collins, especially when considering positional scarcity. Collins is a unique player, but give me the the wing who can guard the best players in the league.

Collins is a better player than Mikal Bridges and has more skills, imo


It's a moot conversation. One has signed an extension. The other hasn't.

I don't really know what additional skills Collins has? They play different positions, so any comparison is going to be subjective and relative to need. Collins is a good roll man. That's fine. It's not a quality you seek from a wing. Collins' value is going to depend heavily on whether or not the other team has someone on the floor that he can defend.

Bridges is a really good shooter. He is an exceptional finisher. He is a plus defender that you will never have to pull off the floor at the end of the game. He has played as many minutes as Collins has in one fewer season. He has topped 2k minutes in every season. Collins hasn't topped 2k minutes in any season. You'd be locking up a young player that is going to give you a ton of really quality minutes and has yet to show any signs of stagnated development. You might be overpaying the market, but you aren't going to overpay on his production. That contract will not be a problem barring some catastrophic injury.

He'd immediately be the best player we have had since Howard's departure. If Suggs hits and/or Isaac finds his fitness, then we have a core. I think the biggest risk you run by adding Bridges to your roster is that he masks the deficiencies of some of your other pieces. That's obviously not a bad thing unless it leads you to overvalue the quality of those other pieces.

Phoenix is in a weird spot. The clock is ticking on Chris Paul. Can they afford to keep Bridges after they re-sign Ayton? If they decide that they can't, then their window is going to close at some point in the next couple years.

Bridges is a good shooter. But Collins is a better shooter, a better finisher than Bridges. Better rebounder. Bridges can defend wings that Collins cant, Collins is bigger and can defend PF's and some centers.

I dont know that Collins is worth $25mil a year, probably not. I do know that Bridges isnt worth that. at least not with the skills he has shown so far.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#552 » by thelead » Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:43 am

I can't believe we're only 2 and half weeks away from preseason already.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#553 » by pepe1991 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:06 am

We really gonna pretend that career 10,2 ppg, 3,8 rpg, 2,0 apg, 37,6% three point shooter is now ballpark of Jaylen Brown, Chris Paul, Lowry, Randle?

Collins isn't perfect player, but he had 21,7 ppg 11 rpg season and his "down year " is still better than any season Mikal ever had.

Pros:
Mikal is very good spot up shooter.
Mikal is oke defender.

Cons:
Mikal can't rebound to save his life.
Mikal can't pass to save his life.
Mikal can't take players off dribble to save his life.
Mikal is alergic to free throws.

Mikal is good defender but not All-NBA defender type.

Duncan Robinson, both Bogdanovic, Joe Harris, OG, Powell, ... that's pretty much talent group of Mikal, non of them makes more than $20M a year.

Things that Mikal can do needs to be viewed through all 3 seasons of his tennure with Suns, not one year where he was sharing "spotlight" for 4th, 5th sometimes 6th "most important" player on team that has 3 allstar type players (2 of them superstars).
Just year before this one, Mikal was 9 ppg , 4 rpg player. And even his "great" year is just great from efficiency POV. In reality he only averaged 13,5 ppg . That PPG total wasn't high enough to rank him among top 100 in scoring.
I really struggle to understand what execlly Mikal does better than let's say Ross.
Ross just does not have Chris Paul and Devin Booker to get him WIDEEEE open jumpers.
Mikal Bridges & Ross pretty much have identical splits when it comes to hitting wide open 3s over 3 seasons.. Difference is, one got 177 open threes this year , other got 38 whole season.

Ross and 46% for 3 on wide open 3s during 2019-20 season was better shooter than Mikal ever was.

And we know this has nothing to do with their skillset. Mikal is incapable of doing anything else on offense but hit open 3s. During whole damn season, he had 11 isolation plays for him.

His spot ups aren't even that amazing, he is 82,7 percentile. Nothing to sneeze at, but pretty much ballpark with Harrison Barnes, Corey Joseph, Hayward, Porzingis, Campazzo or Batum. Difference? Well, non of them got 311 spotups like Mikal did.

It's very dangerous game to look at his skillset and ignore superiority of his ballhandlers that get him open. His game is dependent on others to do everything for him. And in that sense he is like Joe Harris and i already wrote what's issue with Joe Harris. He is amazing player as long as you don't rely on him to be one.

Mikal is fine player, but role player. Mikal won't expend his game, guy is 25 years old and is what he is. Paying for modern day Ariza truck full of money is usless if you don't have set team in place where his services are pivotal for compeating for a title. Magic are polar opposite of that.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#554 » by cedric76 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:09 am

MagicMatic wrote:They throw in a frp.

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ye6dtvmv

Wall/Cole
Suggs/RJ/Ross
House/Ross/Wagner
Isaac/Okeke
Carter/Mo/Lopez

Orlando isn’t competing and the price of getting off of a contract like Walls is a frp. In two years Orlando can use the expiring money towards resignings and a legitimate free agent for when the stars align.


Why TF would we do that?
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#555 » by drsd » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:32 am

MagicMatic wrote:They throw in a frp.

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ye6dtvmv

Wall/Cole
Suggs/RJ/Ross
House/Ross/Wagner
Isaac/Okeke
Carter/Mo/Lopez

Orlando isn’t competing and the price of getting off of a contract like Walls is a frp. In two years Orlando can use the expiring money towards resignings and a legitimate free agent for when the stars align.



I love this:
Hollinger's Analysis:
You have not affected the winning percentage of this team


That is the predicted outcome for both the Rockets and the Magic. LOL


..
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#556 » by pepe1991 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:07 am

drsd wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:They throw in a frp.

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ye6dtvmv

Wall/Cole
Suggs/RJ/Ross
House/Ross/Wagner
Isaac/Okeke
Carter/Mo/Lopez

Orlando isn’t competing and the price of getting off of a contract like Walls is a frp. In two years Orlando can use the expiring money towards resignings and a legitimate free agent for when the stars align.



I love this:
Hollinger's Analysis:
You have not affected the winning percentage of this team


That is the predicted outcome for both the Rockets and the Magic. LOL


..



I laughed to this way too hard :lol: :lol:
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#557 » by drsd » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:01 pm

pepe1991 wrote:I laughed to this way too hard :lol: :lol:


Seriously, it makes no sense for two teams that will not win 30 games to make a major trade. Neither team will get worse or get better.
A third team would need to be in this to make any sense. Perhaps Toronto, for example

For Orlando, it's even worse as Wall is a terrible fit for the roster that would result. Maybe there is an argument to trade Harris and Fultz for an expiring in 2023, but that's all I can see. And then, why would Orlando want a very, very moody player for two years???

..
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#558 » by pepe1991 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:31 pm

drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:I laughed to this way too hard :lol: :lol:


Seriously, it makes no sense for two teams that will not win 30 games to make a major trade. Neither team will get worse or get better.
A third team would need to be in this to make any sense. Perhaps Toronto, for example

For Orlando, it's even worse as Wall is a terrible fit for the roster that would result. Maybe there is an argument to trade Harris and Fultz for an expiring in 2023, but that's all I can see. And then, why would Orlando want a very, very moody player for two years???

..


it depends what picks Houston is willing to unload. You can argue that some 8th pick from 2022 has more value than Wall, Fultz or Harris combined given where they are as players and how much salary they commit.

But win-loss record debate in trade between two of four worst teams is hilarious
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#559 » by jonbob17 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:50 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:I laughed to this way too hard :lol: :lol:


Seriously, it makes no sense for two teams that will not win 30 games to make a major trade. Neither team will get worse or get better.
A third team would need to be in this to make any sense. Perhaps Toronto, for example

For Orlando, it's even worse as Wall is a terrible fit for the roster that would result. Maybe there is an argument to trade Harris and Fultz for an expiring in 2023, but that's all I can see. And then, why would Orlando want a very, very moody player for two years???

..


it depends what picks Houston is willing to unload. You can argue that some 8th pick from 2022 has more value than Wall, Fultz or Harris combined given where they are as players and how much salary they commit.

But win-loss record debate in trade between two of four worst teams is hilarious


I can't imagine Houston giving up a good pick given their situation (in a rebuild). I also can't see a team trading for a 40M a year Wall.
I'd say a buyout, but we are so late in the process, i don't see too many contenders with cash. He'd have to offer some sort of discount on his deal to get bought out. Curious to see how this one plays out. Maybe Houston just values the playing time for the young guys and eats most of this. No idea.
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Re: Official Spec Thread: Heart and Hustle Magic 2.0 

Post#560 » by jonbob17 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:47 pm

Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux did a mock rookie extension on Duncan's podcast. These are estimates on extensions this offseason, not hitting restricted Free agency.

Ayton max 5/172M
Bagley Kings pass
Jaren Jackson 4/96 including games played bonus, 4/85 guaranteed. Max or close if make it through this season healthy and good.
Bamba 3/25 plus 2M a year in incentives. Magic happy to have him play out season and pay next year if Bamba plays like NBA center
WCJ. 3/22 Magic side to 3/39 player side. NO deal....wait until next season or trade
Sexton. Sides are too far apart
Knox - pass
Mikal Bridges 4/85 guaranteed plus incentives...comps, otto, batum, OG
Miles Bridges 4/64 with 4M incentives
Porter Jr. Max 4 years guaranteed team option for 5th

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