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WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER

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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#381 » by Knightro » Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:57 pm

Xatticus wrote:I thought it was a really poor game. The pass that was picked off by Kuminga was just a dreadful play. It was probably a full 2-point swing in the outcome of the game. It reduced the EV of that possession by about a point and increased the value of the ensuing possession for GS by about a point. It's a losing play.

I was also a bit surprised by how much space he was giving to shooters. I saw him as comparable to Mikal Bridges at the defensive end. If he has to give up that much space to prevent guys from getting past him, then that sort of defensive ceiling is probably outside of his reach. You generally prefer to give up that long shot, but he was sagging too far to contest.

All of that said, I'm not making anything out of that performance. I said I wouldn't complain about the pick, so I won't. He wasn't my preference, but I think he will be just fine in the long run. For those out here that were expecting more from him offensively, this is what he is. If you expect more from him, you are just projecting hope. I'm not saying he can't improve, but this is what he is.

I wanted Sengun. I thought it was an easy decision. I'll try not to bring it up on a nightly basis. The problem with Wagner at 8 is that you can get that sort of player much later. If you press me to answer who will be better in the long run between Murphy and Wagner, I probably have to give the edge to Murphy because he is just a much better shooter. I know that Wagner is quite a bit younger, but I'm not sure what skills you expect him to add or improve, so I don't really see the upside.


Ehhh I wouldn't say I agree on the defensive side of things. Particularly the contesting jumpers part. I thought for the most part he was great on Kuminga. A couple of GSW's scrubby non-NBA guys I think took him by surprise by actually shooting when he expected them to not shoot, but I wouldn't say he was giving them a lot of space because he was scared they blow by him.

That DHO turnover was definitely his worst play by a mile. Not only was the turnover really terrible, but he was too scared to shoot the open jumper right before that. To his credit, that was really the only possession that he really passed up an open jump shot.

I do think if the plan is to use him as a spot shooter 75-80% of the possessions, then he's going to disappoint unless there's a significant uptick in his 3PT shot. He's just not nearly as natural of a shooter as Moody or Duarte or Murphy.

The Magic are going to have to utilize him more as a ball handler initiating ball screens, as a screener who can make plays in pick and pop or on the short roll and as a passer from the elbows.

If they're not going to do that, then he's gonna be a 3&D guy without a consistent 3 yet.

Now look... are we over-analyzing one summer league game? Of course we are.

But I think Wagner is a lot like Barnes in the respect that if you don't utilize the things he *can* do, then you're doing him and your team a disservice.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#382 » by YosemiteSam » Wed Aug 11, 2021 9:06 pm

Xatticus wrote:
YosemiteSam wrote:
Xatticus wrote:I thought it was a really poor game. The pass that was picked off by Kuminga was just a dreadful play. It was probably a full 2-point swing in the outcome of the game. It reduced the EV of that possession by about a point and increased the value of the ensuing possession for GS by about a point. It's a losing play.

I was also a bit surprised by how much space he was giving to shooters. I saw him as comparable to Mikal Bridges at the defensive end. If he has to give up that much space to prevent guys from getting past him, then that sort of defensive ceiling is probably outside of his reach. You generally prefer to give up that long shot, but he was sagging too far to contest.

All of that said, I'm not making anything out of that performance. I said I wouldn't complain about the pick, so I won't. He wasn't my preference, but I think he will be just fine in the long run. For those out here that were expecting more from him offensively, this is what he is. If you expect more from him, you are just projecting hope. I'm not saying he can't improve, but this is what he is.

I wanted Sengun. I thought it was an easy decision. I'll try not to bring it up on a nightly basis. The problem with Wagner at 8 is that you can get that sort of player much later. If you press me to answer who will be better in the long run between Murphy and Wagner, I probably have to give the edge to Murphy because he is just a much better shooter. I know that Wagner is quite a bit younger, but I'm not sure what skills you expect him to add or improve, so I don't really see the upside.


Can you please explain why you were/are so down on Vuc but up on Sengun? To me Sengun is a younger, shorter Vuc, which is why I didn't want us to take him. Not because I don't value that but I couldn't take the board hate of Vuc and Fournier and didn't want a new white Euro whipping boy. But now we have that anyway in Wagner. But your Sengun support confuses me. Honest question


I don't see them as being comparable at all. They are both centers, I suppose. Sengun has a huge advantage in mobility and athleticism. He is far more skilled. Have you ever seen Vucevic go end to end with his dribble to set up a transition basket for a teammate? Have you ever seen Vucevic catch an alley oop? He scarcely ever gets more than a couple inches off the floor.

Sengun is a better pick-and-roll guy right now than Vucevic will ever be. Vucevic didn't really learn how to screen until we hired Clifford. He slipped every screen before that. Sengun slips on some and lays the wood on others. He really mixes it up and he screens incessantly. He greases the wheels for the offense. If the ball handler rejects a screen, he immediately swings around and sets an off-ball screen.

Sengun has much more defensive upside. He posted high block and steal rates in Turkey. We've seen this in summer league as well. He has blocked four shots in each game. His mobility is a huge advantage in this regard, but he also has really good anticipation and he is high energy at the defensive end. He understands verticality and he gets out to contest people away from the rim. He gets his body into guys while keeping his arms up. Vucevic, by contrast, simply sags under the basket. He has no mobility. He is ineffectual even when he is right next to someone. He just fades under the hoop and stretches out his arms.

Sengun is far more dynamic offensively. He creates offense in the same way that Jokic creates offense. He'll catch the ball and advance his position to force the defense to react. This opens up passing lanes and frees up shooters. Vucevic can't really move after he catches the ball. He is a stationary threat, which is far more limited. Sengun is a threat in the post. Vucevic isn't. Sengun posted absurd efficiency numbers from the post. Vucevic has been below average in post efficiency in almost every season.

Even if they were comparable, which I'd argue they aren't, Sengun is the far superior talent. He's really good at basketball right now. He has some bad habits that can be cleaned up, but I don't think I've ever seen a more skilled 18-year-old big in my lifetime. His offensive rebounding is amazing, Vucevic's is non-existent.

For what it's worth, I don't believe I'm down on Vucevic. I've praised his ability to make quick decisions. He is a good ball mover and good decision-maker. He is a good 3-point shooter at this point. He is solid as a defensive rebounder. These are his positive attributes. He is deficient at pretty much everything else. He is a disaster at the defensive end. I don't think it's a lack of effort. I just think he has zero talent defensively. I just believe he is a bench big that this franchise tried to turn into a centerpiece.

The short version of all of this is one of the two guys is much more mobile, much more athletic, much more intuitive, and much more skilled than the other.


Thanks for the explanation. Though I don’t agree with you on the Vuc negatives or what I feel are rose colored glasses on Sengun. You called a two time All Star a bench player. So I would say your Vuc opinion is in the minority. And your Sengun opinions are way different than what we heard in draft run ups. He was positioned as a traditional big man. You make him sound like the evolutionary Bam A. Will be interesting to see how his career evolves.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#383 » by RookieStar » Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:04 am

Ok, im here for the Franz slander after his second game.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#384 » by Last Guardian » Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:08 pm

RookieStar wrote:Ok, im here for the Franz slander after his second game.


Game 2 was an improvement, he settled down a bit. How many 6'11 guys are this good at cutting to the basket? He's going to be a highly valuable player.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#385 » by pepe1991 » Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:26 pm

RookieStar wrote:Ok, im here for the Franz slander after his second game.


And nobody showed up for a party :lol:

I just kind a don't care, i just don't see star potential and given alternatives in a draft, i still think it was possible to trade down and get him.

Right now i don't really see him as some suprerior prospect to Sengun, Murphy or Johnson. And Johnson fell to 20#.

My prefered guy was Moody with 8th pick or trading down to Johnson.

But it is what it is.
He is projected 3 and D guy. I'm not sold on idea that Wagner will be plus defender against way more athletic players than he is. And his "3" hasn't been strenght of his at any point of college career.
He looks like likeable , good kid, so i don't really care that much nor i'm upset of pick, but i think there were better alternatives.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#386 » by The Real Dalic » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:03 pm

Are we really still judging a player after only 2 Summer League games which mean nothing?
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#387 » by PrimeThyme » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:55 pm

I think this setting is much more conducive for someone like Kuminga who has such an NBA-ready body and can just get to any spot around the basket that he wants to.

Sam Vecinie had a really good discussion about this on his podcast last night, when talking about Summer league and how it isn't actually real basketball. They specifically discussed Wagner in this segment and how they can't glean anything from his play in SL because what he does well and the impact he is expected to bring to an actual NBA team just isn't suited for this type of basketball.

Kuminga for the Warriors next year is going to be asked to hit 3's and become a smart positional defender. I've really seen nothing so far in SL that tells me he will be able to do both of those things at a high level out the gate. This is why I think it's highly likely he's out of the rotation. Wagner's skillset is much more suited for their needs.

Sengun is just another example of that, but to a lesser extent. I think he's going to be really good, but just the complete lack of NBA quality centers in the summer league combined with his skillset is a recipe for success in my opinion. He will be battling it out for minutes next year with Wood/Garuba/Wilson/Theis and I'm thoroughly intrigued to see what that looks like and if his game (primarily defensively) transitions as smoothly as it has in the SL.

I'm still not concerned with Wagner. He's got some weird things going on with his 3pt mechanics right now, but I'm still chalking that up to nerves && comfort level at this stage. I believe in his potential as a 3&D guy.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#388 » by basketballRob » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:45 pm

PrimeThyme wrote:I think this setting is much more conducive for someone like Kuminga who has such an NBA-ready body and can just get to any spot around the basket that he wants to.

Sam Vecinie had a really good discussion about this on his podcast last night, when talking about Summer league and how it isn't actually real basketball. They specifically discussed Wagner in this segment and how they can't glean anything from his play in SL because what he does well and the impact he is expected to bring to an actual NBA team just isn't suited for this type of basketball.

Kuminga for the Warriors next year is going to be asked to hit 3's and become a smart positional defender. I've really seen nothing so far in SL that tells me he will be able to do both of those things at a high level out the gate. This is why I think it's highly likely he's out of the rotation. Wagner's skillset is much more suited for their needs.

Sengun is just another example of that, but to a lesser extent. I think he's going to be really good, but just the complete lack of NBA quality centers in the summer league combined with his skillset is a recipe for success in my opinion. He will be battling it out for minutes next year with Wood/Garuba/Wilson/Theis and I'm thoroughly intrigued to see what that looks like and if his game (primarily defensively) transitions as smoothly as it has in the SL.

I'm still not concerned with Wagner. He's got some weird things going on with his 3pt mechanics right now, but I'm still chalking that up to nerves && comfort level at this stage. I believe in his potential as a 3&D guy.
I listened to Vecenie's podcast too. One thing that caught my ear was the Suggs was a big time scorer before he went to Gonzaga. He seems to the that Suggs will revert back to being a scorer. Also that he was feeling vindicated for having Suggs #2 on his board.

I know we're talking about Franz, but you brought up the Vecenie podcast.

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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#389 » by KillMonger » Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:02 pm

Remember guys he's 19 years old....summer league might not be the best environment for a player like him but he is getting better with each game....he'll be fine....chill out with the hot takes....Trae young had a terrible summer league....Lebron had a game where he shot like 2-16....Hezonja had a pretty good summer league....it's too volatile to extrapolate anything from it career wise
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#390 » by dc » Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:07 pm

pepe1991 wrote:But it is what it is.
He is projected 3 and D guy. I'm not sold on idea that Wagner will be plus defender against way more athletic players than he is. And his "3" hasn't been strenght of his at any point of college career.
He looks like likeable , good kid, so i don't really care that much nor i'm upset of pick, but i think there were better alternatives.
Best case Galinari, realistic case "declined Artest", worst case Al Faruq Aminu/James Johnson ?
:dontknow: Can't get exited but it's not some epic disaster. Just okeey.


Non-Magic fan (Warrior fan) giving a couple thoughts.

The utopian idea of Wagner is that he's some Hayward/AK47 hybrid, but that's super optimistic obviously. He does have length, but I don't know if he has that AK47 quickness to consistently guard smaller players on the perimeter.

Pre-injury Gallinari was a near Hayward level player, though not quite the playmaker. He was still a good all around player who could shoot the 3 well. Wagner has to shoot the ball better to get to that level. It's a shooting dependant league and Wagner has to shoot better than he did in college.

I still think he's a good prospect, but he's a project. There's a lot of what ifs with Wagner, as there are with most guys after you get past the Top 5. Given that you took Suggs (about as no brainer a pick there is), it probably didn't make sense to take Mitchell. Bouknight would've been a good value pick as well, but your backcourt is kinda crowded right now, so I suppose I understand that.

I think Sengun could be the guy many teams regret passing on.

Moody for the Warriors was a "safe" choice and good value at #14, but he's not that exciting. I suppose Klay wasn't a very exciting pick in 2011 in the same way, so who knows. But I don't see all-star potential from him. Probably Wes Matthews in his prime at most is what I see. I don't know if that's worth a #7/8 pick. Supposedly the Warriors considered him at #7, but that's them just hyping him up. The Warriors were likely going to take the much older Duarte at #14 before the Pacers surprisingly took him a pick ahead.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#391 » by tooler » Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:42 pm

dc wrote:Non-Magic fan (Warrior fan) giving a couple thoughts.

Please stop by anytime to talk to pepe so that we don't have to. 8-)
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#392 » by Horcy » Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:34 pm

dc wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:But it is what it is.
He is projected 3 and D guy. I'm not sold on idea that Wagner will be plus defender against way more athletic players than he is. And his "3" hasn't been strenght of his at any point of college career.
He looks like likeable , good kid, so i don't really care that much nor i'm upset of pick, but i think there were better alternatives.
Best case Galinari, realistic case "declined Artest", worst case Al Faruq Aminu/James Johnson ?
:dontknow: Can't get exited but it's not some epic disaster. Just okeey.


Non-Magic fan (Warrior fan) giving a couple thoughts.

The utopian idea of Wagner is that he's some Hayward/AK47 hybrid, but that's super optimistic obviously. He does have length, but I don't know if he has that AK47 quickness to consistently guard smaller players on the perimeter.

Pre-injury Gallinari was a near Hayward level player, though not quite the playmaker. He was still a good all around player who could shoot the 3 well. Wagner has to shoot the ball better to get to that level. It's a shooting dependant league and Wagner has to shoot better than he did in college.

I still think he's a good prospect, but he's a project. There's a lot of what ifs with Wagner, as there are with most guys after you get past the Top 5. Given that you took Suggs (about as no brainer a pick there is), it probably didn't make sense to take Mitchell. Bouknight would've been a good value pick as well, but your backcourt is kinda crowded right now, so I suppose I understand that.

I think Sengun could be the guy many teams regret passing on.

Moody for the Warriors was a "safe" choice and good value at #14, but he's not that exciting. I suppose Klay wasn't a very exciting pick in 2011 in the same way, so who knows. But I don't see all-star potential from him. Probably Wes Matthews in his prime at most is what I see. I don't know if that's worth a #7/8 pick. Supposedly the Warriors considered him at #7, but that's them just hyping him up. The Warriors were likely going to take the much older Duarte at #14 before the Pacers surprisingly took him a pick ahead.


Thanks for sharing! It's always good to read other teams fans when they are respectful and write constructive stuff.
Warriors made a great draft btw. Congrats!
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#393 » by dc » Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:43 pm

Horcy wrote:Thanks for sharing! It's always good to read other teams fans when they are respectful and write constructive stuff.
Warriors made a great draft btw. Congrats!


Thx. I'll try to chime in every now and then. I've spent more time in Florida than any state outside of California due to work travel from about 2010-2015, so I've flown in and out of MCO many times and I did go to a Magic-Heat game at Amway last year.

I think the Warriors had a solid draft. It was a deep draft so a decent chance guys taken after they picked will turn out better than who they got, but that's how it is with deep/talented drafts. I think they still got value whether they decide to keep these guys or not.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#394 » by PrimeThyme » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:05 pm

pepe1991 wrote:I just kind a don't care, i just don't see star potential and given alternatives in a draft, i still think it was possible to trade down and get him.

It's universally accepted that Wagner was pretty much a lock to go at 9 or 10.

There's a lot of speculation that the Kings, who reportedly promised Wagner before the draft, panicked once he was off the board at 9 and took a 6'1 point guard despite their two best players already being small point guards.

This isn't a Chuma scenario. Teams in the top 10 were high on Wagner during the draft process and I'm confident that 6-10 was his range of outcome. I think I'm also higher on Wagner than you are. I think he has the chance to be a far more impactful defender and secondary playmaker than Gallo ever was (Career 1.6 apg, -.6 DPBM).

He definitely has some room to grow on the offensive end, but I think I'm generally higher on his potential than the consensus.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#395 » by basketballRob » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:05 pm

dc wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:But it is what it is.
He is projected 3 and D guy. I'm not sold on idea that Wagner will be plus defender against way more athletic players than he is. And his "3" hasn't been strenght of his at any point of college career.
He looks like likeable , good kid, so i don't really care that much nor i'm upset of pick, but i think there were better alternatives.
Best case Galinari, realistic case "declined Artest", worst case Al Faruq Aminu/James Johnson ?
:dontknow: Can't get exited but it's not some epic disaster. Just okeey.


Non-Magic fan (Warrior fan) giving a couple thoughts.

The utopian idea of Wagner is that he's some Hayward/AK47 hybrid, but that's super optimistic obviously. He does have length, but I don't know if he has that AK47 quickness to consistently guard smaller players on the perimeter.

Pre-injury Gallinari was a near Hayward level player, though not quite the playmaker. He was still a good all around player who could shoot the 3 well. Wagner has to shoot the ball better to get to that level. It's a shooting dependant league and Wagner has to shoot better than he did in college.

I still think he's a good prospect, but he's a project. There's a lot of what ifs with Wagner, as there are with most guys after you get past the Top 5. Given that you took Suggs (about as no brainer a pick there is), it probably didn't make sense to take Mitchell. Bouknight would've been a good value pick as well, but your backcourt is kinda crowded right now, so I suppose I understand that.

I think Sengun could be the guy many teams regret passing on.

Moody for the Warriors was a "safe" choice and good value at #14, but he's not that exciting. I suppose Klay wasn't a very exciting pick in 2011 in the same way, so who knows. But I don't see all-star potential from him. Probably Wes Matthews in his prime at most is what I see. I don't know if that's worth a #7/8 pick. Supposedly the Warriors considered him at #7, but that's them just hyping him up. The Warriors were likely going to take the much older Duarte at #14 before the Pacers surprisingly took him a pick ahead.
We're hoping he can be a Detlef Schempf type player. Not sure where the AK 47 comparison is coming from. Wagner is really good defensively, but Kirilenko was elite.

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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#396 » by J the Drafter » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:17 pm

Going by Wagner’s college highlights he looks like a future point forward. I’m sure the FO picture him running the offense at some point in his career. If he can do that and add an outside shot I think we’ll be very happy with the pick.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#397 » by thelead » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:11 am

We need Franz to develop into this offensively:

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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#398 » by Knightro » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:43 am

The only discouraging thing for me so far is the lack of assertiveness.

Every time he's actually had the confidence to put the ball on the floor and drive, which in 2.5 games has only been a handful of times unfortunately, something good has typically happened.

Even if he gets cut off, he's still really tall and can see over most defenders and he's a good passer. It's not like he can't still make something positive happen.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#399 » by fendilim » Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:30 am

Knightro wrote:The only discouraging thing for me so far is the lack of assertiveness.

Every time he's actually had the confidence to put the ball on the floor and drive, which in 2.5 games has only been a handful of times unfortunately, something good has typically happened.

Even if he gets cut off, he's still really tall and can see over most defenders and he's a good passer. It's not like he can't still make something positive happen.

This

His shot will fall.

To me. He is still adjusting to game speed right now.

Also, Playing against NBA body is different than NCAA body. Even Mobley is dominating summer league. Not saying Wagner is at Mobley level, but this guys have to fill out first.
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Re: WELCOME TO ORLANDO FRANZ WAGNER 

Post#400 » by Bensational » Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:55 am

Knightro wrote:The only discouraging thing for me so far is the lack of assertiveness.

Every time he's actually had the confidence to put the ball on the floor and drive, which in 2.5 games has only been a handful of times unfortunately, something good has typically happened.

Even if he gets cut off, he's still really tall and can see over most defenders and he's a good passer. It's not like he can't still make something positive happen.


I feel like I’m watching early Isaac again in many ways on the offensive end. Bit too much inclination to put the team first, causing hesitation on his I ndividual moves.

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