Page 1 of 3

Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:27 pm
by YosemiteSam
We were the last team profiled lol - I'm sure it was not personal or indicative of the perceived general interest in our team (or was it?)

Anyway, the link and a few quotes:

Hollinger’s 2021-22 Orlando Magic preview: Lineup, roster, prediction, how long will rebuild take?

Some excerpts:

Orlando got some good stuff out of this, including the eighth pick in the 2021 draft, two future firsts, two promising young players and a massive trade exception, but inevitably it will take a little while for all this to coalesce into a real basketball team again. Injuries weren’t the only issue hurting the Magic, to be fair. The non-development of 2018 sixth pick Mo Bamba hurt, given how loaded the rest of that draft was. Clifford otherwise did great work, but his inexplicable, insatiable need to put Dwayne Bacon on the floor resulted in one of the league’s most statistically negative players leading the team in minutes by a wide margin.


The Magic finished as a bottom-five team at both ends of the court, but the offensive drudgery was especially painful. They were last in 2-point percentage at a ghastly 47.6 and not much better from beyond the arc (34.3 percent; 27th). Following the midseason trades, they were twice held under 80 points in an NBA basketball game in the Year of our Lord 2021.


Orlando ended up with two lottery picks that should serve as the foundation for whatever this team can become going forward. The backcourt will be a little crowded with young players now that Suggs is here, but he’s a much more compelling prospect than Cole Anthony and should immediately become the developmental focus. Wagner doesn’t have Suggs’ ceiling but is a good passer and defender who can make plays in transition; if you’re Orlando, you’re hoping for Mikal Bridges-type outcomes.


Orlando also traded the 33th pick to the Clippers for a 2026 Detroit second-rounder and cash, which, I mean … not great. The odds of Detroit’s 2026 second-rounder being as high as 33rd are vanishingly low, so I hope that was an awful lot of cash. A team in Orlando’s situation should be trying to hit on as many young guys as possible; if roster crowds were an issue, there were also a couple of good stash picks waiting in this spot


The Magic are a gazillion dollars from the tax line (OK, $22.5 million to be precise), and that could come into play because they’re sitting on a $17.1 million trade exception for Fournier until the trade deadline. Orlando could use that and draft equity to trade for a player under contract who can be part of its future, a more promising avenue than relying on free agency. Orlando also projects to have about $40 million in cap room next summer; extending or re-signing Carter could soak up some of that money, while using the Fournier exception may cut into it too. But the Magic could take a free agency plunge if they really wanted. A more likely scenario, perhaps, is some combination of the above: Using the Fournier exception on one player, using perhaps $20 million of the cap room to sign another player and extending or re-signing Carter with the rest.


A few player comments highlights:

Cole Anthony, PG – Respectable showing for 20-year-old rookie with waaaaaay too much offensive responsibility.
Mo Bamba, C – Actually got better last season, but his motor just never runs very hot.
R.J. Hampton, SG – Speedy scoring guard is only 20 and grew two inches since draft day.
Gary Harris, SG – Tough wing defender whose shot disappeared over the Bermuda Triangle in 2018.
Jonathan Isaac, PF – Can he stay healthy? Enters fifth season with just 136 career games.
Chuma Okeke, PF – Smart combo with good hands, but lacks athletic pop. Can he shoot?
Terrence Ross, SF – He’s still here? Veteran bomber is team’s most prominent trade bait.
Jalen Suggs, PG – Tough defender, excels in transition; pick-and-roll game looms as bigger question.
Franz Wagner, SF – Big, athletic and skilled, but low release raises concerns about 3-point volume.
Moritz Wagner, C – One Wagner brother could become really good. This is the other one.


Two factors suggest this might be a bit shorter than your standard teardown.

First, the Magic have some pieces here already — they were just injured last year. Isaac isn’t a star in the typical sense...but he profiles as somebody who can be the second-best player on a good team. Fultz...youth, athleticism and playmaking also bode well for his post-ACL future...Carter is in his fourth season, and if things go right, he’ll give the Magic a starting-caliber center immediately.

Second, the Magic have a lot of factors in their favor that can help accelerate a rebuilding timeline. Suggs might be good enough to legitimately raise their floor, for one. Enough other young faces are here — Wagner, Hampton, Anthony, Okeke and yes, Bamba — that only a couple of them need to pop to push the Magic forward. It goes without saying that a likely high lottery pick in 2022 will also help.

The cap room situation also bodes well; no, they aren’t getting an A-Lister, but the weather and touches available here should make the Magic competitive bidding for anyone on the notches below. Part of this coming season’s task is to thin out the herd a bit and figure out where the team remains weak going forward, so it can target those spots in free agency and trades.

Finally, the front office under Jeff Weltman and John Hammond is in its fifth season and has only one winning campaign (42-40) to show for it...The incentives are there to get this turned around relatively quickly. No, not this year. But, if everything goes right, maybe next year?


It might not be a lengthy rebuild, but this year is going to be uuuuugly...As a rookie coach, Mosley will also have to navigate a couple of delicate situations...At some point, a nod from management to declare winners and losers at these spots would soften his burden. That said, the Magic might be just competitive enough to be mildly entertaining while still stoking optimism for the future...If that doesn’t come to pass, Magic fans can at least circle March 20 on their calendars. That’s when Oklahoma City comes to town, and it will be one of the few games this year in which the Magic are favored.

Prediction: 21-61, 15th in Eastern Conference

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:41 pm
by JBSouthpaw
I thought it was a bit more upbeat than what I was expecting before reading it.
the section on Cap space and trade exemption really has me excited that we COULD pull something off.

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:59 pm
by pepe1991
Gary Harris, SG – Tough wing defender whose shot disappeared over the Bermuda Triangle in 2018.


:rofl:

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:31 pm
by YosemiteSam
pepe1991 wrote:Gary Harris, SG – Tough wing defender whose shot disappeared over the Bermuda Triangle in 2018.


:rofl:


Me favorite line was :

they were twice held under 80 points in an NBA basketball game in the Year of our Lord 2021.

With today’s defensive rules and 3 point focused offenses, it seems almost impossible for an NBA team not to score 80 points in 48 minutes. And they managed it twice with basically our current roster.

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:07 pm
by pepe1991
YosemiteSam wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Gary Harris, SG – Tough wing defender whose shot disappeared over the Bermuda Triangle in 2018.


:rofl:


Me favorite line was :

they were twice held under 80 points in an NBA basketball game in the Year of our Lord 2021.

With today’s defensive rules and 3 point focused offenses, it seems almost impossible for an NBA team not to score 80 points in 48 minutes. And they managed it twice with basically our current roster.


Just to think about it it's wild, it's not really easy to stay under 80 points given that in today's league there are around 104 possessions by team during 48 min. If you commit 20 turnovers ( witch is sky high) you should still be in play for 84 shots. Between 25 and 40 shots are 3s.
So esencially shooting 10-35 ( godawful 28% ) is good enough to give you 30 points, 40 possessions with 2s (18-40 for example , agian godawful 37,5%) it's 36 points and you finish 14 possessions with some shooting fouls and FTs ( 28 FTs) and you make 18 (again, way below average) you are still in play for 84 points, despite shooting 37,5-28-64

That's why that Hornets 68 points loss in preseason where they scored 59 points is once in a lifetime experience. Probably worst basketball played in nba since infamous Bobcats team was shut down.

Also most teams pull out starters in middle of 3rd quater, so if game is over (anything over 30 points ) you have 15-18 min of garbage time to make cosmeticlly more pleasing L.

Since shotclock was installed not a single team scored less than 19 points in one half ( Lakers- Clippers, 1999, Clippers menaged to score 3 points in second quater, with is also some sort of record in modern basketball).

Magic tail end of 2020-21 season with OKC was some of ugliest basketball in years.

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:52 pm
by Optimus_Steel
pepe1991 wrote:
YosemiteSam wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Gary Harris, SG – Tough wing defender whose shot disappeared over the Bermuda Triangle in 2018.


:rofl:


Me favorite line was :

they were twice held under 80 points in an NBA basketball game in the Year of our Lord 2021.

With today’s defensive rules and 3 point focused offenses, it seems almost impossible for an NBA team not to score 80 points in 48 minutes. And they managed it twice with basically our current roster.


Just to think about it it's wild, it's not really easy to stay under 80 points given that in today's league there are around 104 possessions by team during 48 min. If you commit 20 turnovers ( witch is sky high) you should still be in play for 84 shots. Between 25 and 40 shots are 3s.
So esencially shooting 10-35 ( godawful 28% ) is good enough to give you 30 points, 40 possessions with 2s (18-40 for example , agian godawful 37,5%) it's 36 points and you finish 14 possessions with some shooting fouls and FTs ( 28 FTs) and you make 18 (again, way below average) you are still in play for 84 points, despite shooting 37,5-28-64

That's why that Hornets 68 points loss in preseason where they scored 59 points is once in a lifetime experience. Probably worst basketball played in nba since infamous Bobcats team was shut down.

Also most teams pull out starters in middle of 3rd quater, so if game is over (anything over 30 points ) you have 15-18 min of garbage time to make cosmeticlly more pleasing L.

Since shotclock was installed not a single team scored less than 19 points in one half ( Lakers- Clippers, 1999, Clippers menaged to score 3 points in second quater, with is also some sort of record in modern basketball).

Magic tail end of 2020-21 season with OKC was some of ugliest basketball in years.
It's been a decade of the Magic being among the worst scoring and offensive teams in the league and I'm sick of it. Thats not changing this year either and I can't see anything exciting other than Suggs. It takes a special type of incompetence to put out so many bad scoring teams for a an entire decade.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using RealGM mobile app

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:57 pm
by tiderulz
i guess im a hater, but i dont see Isaac as the 2nd best player on a good team. not even close

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:52 am
by pepe1991
tiderulz wrote:i guess im a hater, but i dont see Isaac as the 2nd best player on a good team. not even close


It depends what's viewed as "good " team.
Is 45-37 team "good" ? if it is, than maybe, if best player is Steph Curry, he could be second best.
But if you are top tear contender, your second best player is basically perennial allstar.
Nets second best player is Harden
Lakers- Davis/Lebron / at apsolute worst Westbrook
Clippers- George
Suns- Booker
Heat- Lowry /Adebayo
Warriors- Klay Thompson
Bucks- Middelton
Jazz- Gobert/ Mitchell (depending how you value them)

when you look at those names, those are almost all HOF players

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:01 pm
by Last Guardian
YosemiteSam wrote:
Me favorite line was :

they were twice held under 80 points in an NBA basketball game in the Year of our Lord 2021.

With today’s defensive rules and 3 point focused offenses, it seems almost impossible for an NBA team not to score 80 points in 48 minutes. And they managed it twice with basically our current roster.


One of the games under 80 points was with Vuc, Evan, AG...which is not our current roster. And the other was after the trades, which included Dwayne Bacon, Chasson Randle, James Ennis, Donta Hall...none of whom are on the roster anymore and they were a combined 5/26 that game (and Bacon had the most minutes). That is hardly "basically our current roster".

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:29 pm
by YosemiteSam
Last Guardian wrote:
YosemiteSam wrote:
Me favorite line was :

they were twice held under 80 points in an NBA basketball game in the Year of our Lord 2021.

With today’s defensive rules and 3 point focused offenses, it seems almost impossible for an NBA team not to score 80 points in 48 minutes. And they managed it twice with basically our current roster.


I

One of the games under 80 points was with Vuc, Evan, AG...which is not our current roster. And the other was after the trades, which included Dwayne Bacon, Chasson Randle, James Ennis, Donta Hall...none of whom are on the roster anymore and they were a combined 5/26 that game (and Bacon had the most minutes). That is hardly "basically our current roster".


I didn’t post it but he said both under 80 games were after the trades. So that was why I said it was a lot of who is still on the team.

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:28 pm
by drsd
pepe1991 wrote:Magic tail end of 2020-21 season with OKC was some of ugliest basketball in years.


The Charlotte Hornets went from winning at 34% team to 46% when Bacon moved on. And the Magic went from 45% to 29%.

Coincidence or causality????

I was a bit frustrated reading the Hollinger report on Coach Clifford playing Bacon. It was Clifford's job to actively lose. There is no better A-lister than Mr. Bacon at this NBA role, in my opinion. There is a legitimate case that Bacon is the worst ever NBA starting SG.


..

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2021 4:55 pm
by pepe1991
drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Magic tail end of 2020-21 season with OKC was some of ugliest basketball in years.


The Charlotte Hornets went from winning at 34% team to 46% when Bacon moved on. And the Magic went from 45% to 29%.

Coincidence or causality????

I was a bit frustrated reading the Hollinger report on Coach Clifford playing Bacon. It was Clifford's job to actively lose. There is no better A-lister than Mr. Bacon at this NBA role, in my opinion. There is a legitimate case that Bacon is the worst ever NBA starting SG.


..


Bacon is ilike Lebron of tanking, mr reliable :lol:

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:05 pm
by basketballRob
Knicks are going to be bad this season.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:49 pm
by drsd
basketballRob wrote:Knicks are going to be bad this season.


I also do not trust the Hawks to be what the odd-season of last year turned out for them (still no defense). The Bulls is a player-X injury from being not very good. One of the Pacers, Raptors, or Wizards will be much worse than the press predicts.

Orlando was horrible last year because of injuries. And swapping Fournier, Gordon, and Vučević for what became Harris, Carter, Hampton, and F-Wagner is a down-grade, but it does given minutes and developmental-time to Okeke and Bamba to complement those four. Adding the mystery that is Fultz and Isaac to this ....

.... I absolutely see a path for Orlando being the 10th seed this season.


..

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:32 pm
by Knightro
drsd wrote:I absolutely see a path for Orlando being the 10th seed this season.


:lol: C'mon. Stop with this.

It's significantly more likely the Magic will have the worst record in the NBA than they'll even sniff the 10 seed.

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:37 am
by drsd
Knightro wrote:
drsd wrote:I absolutely see a path for Orlando being the 10th seed this season.


:lol: C'mon. Stop with this.

It's significantly more likely the Magic will have the worst record in the NBA than they'll even sniff the 10 seed.


I like the Magic to go for 26-28 wins. WWith a couple rainbows and some fairy dust, for me, it is not impossible that is stretched to 32 wins. THat could be the 10 seed.

There is no path for me to imagine the Magic as the league's worst team. The Magic was horrible last season because of injuries. Orlando is not bad. What it is is ubnbalanced. At least that's how I see this team.

And in that: the playoffs in 2022/23 needs to be a clear goal.

..

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:48 pm
by OrlDave
tiderulz wrote:i guess im a hater, but i dont see Isaac as the 2nd best player on a good team. not even close


You are a bit. We are looking at best potiental JI which is a near Dwight level defensive presence with a slightly better offensive game. When healthy people were talking DPOY for him, but of course he can't stay healthy. So if your point is you don't see the talent to be a strong #2, I disagree. If it's you don't see the ability to stay on the court to reach that talent, then I probably would agree.

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:18 pm
by Knightro
drsd wrote:I like the Magic to go for 26-28 wins. WWith a couple rainbows and some fairy dust, for me, it is not impossible that is stretched to 32 wins. THat could be the 10 seed.

There is no path for me to imagine the Magic as the league's worst team. The Magic was horrible last season because of injuries. Orlando is not bad. What it is is ubnbalanced. At least that's how I see this team.

And in that: the playoffs in 2022/23 needs to be a clear goal.


I mean I think you are just way off. So far off that this feels like just blind optimism and nothing more than that. No basis in reality.

The Magic are unquestionably going to be one of the three worst teams in the league, if not the very worst. This is a 20 win roster.

And the 10 seed last year won 33 in a 73 game season. Which is 37-38 in a regular full 82-game season. 32 wins, which the Magic have absolutely no chance to reach, isn't going to be close to the 10 seed.

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:20 pm
by Optimus_Steel
Knightro wrote:
drsd wrote:I like the Magic to go for 26-28 wins. WWith a couple rainbows and some fairy dust, for me, it is not impossible that is stretched to 32 wins. THat could be the 10 seed.

There is no path for me to imagine the Magic as the league's worst team. The Magic was horrible last season because of injuries. Orlando is not bad. What it is is ubnbalanced. At least that's how I see this team.

And in that: the playoffs in 2022/23 needs to be a clear goal.


I mean I think you are just way off. So far off that this feels like just blind optimism and nothing more than that. No basis in reality.

The Magic are unquestionably going to be one of the three worst teams in the league, if not the very worst. This is a 20 win roster.

And the 10 seed last year won 33 in a 73 game season. Which is 37-38 in a regular full 82-game season. 32 wins, which the Magic have absolutely no chance to reach, isn't going to be close to the 10 seed.


Its pretty simple to gauge: you can't shoot, you can't score, you have youth and limited talented. Those are recipes for one of the worst records in the league.

Re: Hollinger Deep Dive Magic Season Preview

Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:27 pm
by basketballRob
Optimus_Steel wrote:
Knightro wrote:
drsd wrote:I like the Magic to go for 26-28 wins. WWith a couple rainbows and some fairy dust, for me, it is not impossible that is stretched to 32 wins. THat could be the 10 seed.

There is no path for me to imagine the Magic as the league's worst team. The Magic was horrible last season because of injuries. Orlando is not bad. What it is is ubnbalanced. At least that's how I see this team.

And in that: the playoffs in 2022/23 needs to be a clear goal.


I mean I think you are just way off. So far off that this feels like just blind optimism and nothing more than that. No basis in reality.

The Magic are unquestionably going to be one of the three worst teams in the league, if not the very worst. This is a 20 win roster.

And the 10 seed last year won 33 in a 73 game season. Which is 37-38 in a regular full 82-game season. 32 wins, which the Magic have absolutely no chance to reach, isn't going to be close to the 10 seed.


Its pretty simple to gauge: you can't shoot, you can't score, you have youth and limited talented. Those are recipes for one of the worst records in the league.
I think we have talent. You can't overcome the lack of experience tho.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app