We Are Winning Our Way Out of a Top Draft Pick

orthoman · Post #1 » by **orthoman** » Sat Mar 5, 2022 8:14 pm

I'm very concerned we are going to win ourselves out of a top draft pick.

Are my concerns to be dismissed, or are they legitimate?

Can the Forum comment on all these recent wins.

Thanks

Rainwater · Post #2 » by **Rainwater** » Sat Mar 5, 2022 8:17 pm

orthoman wrote:I'm very concerned we are going to win ourselves out of a top draft pick.

Are my concerns to be dismissed, or are they legitimate?

Can the Forum comment on all these recent wins.

Thanks

Didn't we have a tread about this already, lol.

orthoman · Post #3 » by **orthoman** » Sat Mar 5, 2022 8:23 pm

The Forum deleted my previous post on this subject...didn't want to hear the bad news I proclaimed, but a new reality is setting in
and IMO we could eliminate ourselves from a top 3 pick.

Post #4 » by **Knightro** » Sat Mar 5, 2022 8:30 pm

orthoman wrote:I'm very concerned we are going to win ourselves out of a top draft pick.

Are my concerns to be dismissed, or are they legitimate?

Can the Forum comment on all these recent wins.

Thanks

To be dismissed IMO.

The Magic are for sure going to finish with one of the three worst records in the NBA and will thus have the same odds at 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th as they would have if they had the worst record.

In the absolute worst case scenario, they finish with the third-worst record and they drop to 7th instead of dropping just to 5th in the worst case scenario with the worst record, but if you consider this a 4 player draft, the difference between 5 and 7 is pretty negligible.

Post #5 » by **Knightro** » Sat Mar 5, 2022 8:31 pm

orthoman wrote:The Forum deleted my previous post on this subject...didn't want to hear the bad news I proclaimed, but a new reality is setting in
and IMO we could eliminate ourselves from a top 3 pick.

The Magic could lose the rest of their games, finish with the worst record in the league by a mile, and still not end up with a top 3 pick.

KillMonger · Post #6 » by **KillMonger** » Sat Mar 5, 2022 8:33 pm

Not worried about it in the slightest....maybe that would be a bit different if this draft was a little stronger at the top but that's just me..... There's about 7 or 8 prospects that would fit in very well for us.

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jezzerinho · Post #7 » by **jezzerinho** » Sat Mar 5, 2022 9:14 pm

This thread is not needed. There are other ones to use.

RookieStar · Post #8 » by **RookieStar** » Sat Mar 5, 2022 9:16 pm

We already made a lot of deposits early in the season to cushion whatever runs we make late in the season. I mean those tanktastic losses might be hard for us to take then, but it sure is comforting to know we have them in the bag.

drsd · Post #9 » by **drsd** » Sat Mar 5, 2022 9:40 pm

For Orlando to play tough team defense to win a road game is more valuable than ping-pong balls.

orthoman · Post #10 » by **orthoman** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 12:08 am

Ok, you all brush off my heed.

I am telling you, if we keep winning games, we are going to lose a top 3 pick.

Last Guardian · Post #11 » by **Last Guardian** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 12:21 am

orthoman wrote:Ok, you all brush off my heed.

I am telling you, if we keep winning games, we are going to lose a top 3 pick.

1. We certainly won’t catch up to 4th place team

2. The new odds make tanking pretty much worthless. They were designed that way for a reason.

3. What is brush off my heed?

axl_c_cool · Post #12 » by **axl_c_cool** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 12:27 am

It means ignore his warning

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axl_c_cool · Post #13 » by **axl_c_cool** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 12:35 am

Last Guardian wrote:
orthoman wrote:Ok, you all brush off my heed.

I am telling you, if we keep winning games, we are going to lose a top 3 pick.

1. We certainly won’t catch up to 4th place team

2. The new odds make tanking pretty much worthless. They were designed that way for a reason.

3. What is brush off my heed?

orthoman wrote:I'm very concerned we are going to win ourselves out of a top draft pick.

Are my concerns to be dismissed, or are they legitimate?

Can the Forum comment on all these recent wins.

Thanks

I personally I have a slight concern, I'd rather we limit our pick to being #5 at worst by finishing with the worst record in the league.

I don't agree players learn winning or losing habits at this stage.

We are still also another year of losing away from competing for the playoffs, and while this draft is weak, we don't know with next years. If we look at what roles we want ideally in the next 3 years (injuries considered

Suggs/Fultz
?/Anthony/Hampton
Wagner/
Carter Jr/Okeke
?/Bamba

Isaac* unsure due to injuries

That's our core, in their best role, in my opinion. So we still need 2 starters and a few back ups and the core has to develop too

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SHAQ32 · Post #14 » by **SHAQ32** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 1:36 am

Magic will Magic unfortunately

RichCollab · Post #15 » by **RichCollab** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 2:17 am

Nobody has a top 3 pick and odds are you won’t get a top 3 pick with any record.

Skin · Post #16 » by **Skin** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 2:29 am

As long as our wins put us out of range for Banchero I'll be happy. That guy is a scrub.

Rainwater · Post #17 » by **Rainwater** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 4:34 am

Pretty certain this thread won't age well.

drsd · Post #18 » by **drsd** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 8:22 pm

The Thunder is at 20-43 and ill probably finish with a 25-57 record.

For Orlando to rise to the 26th worst team this means, if the Thunder go winless, the Magic must go 5-12 (29.7%). As the Magic is only 29.0% to this point of the season, that already means an increase in winning rate. Even more, assuming the OKC final record, this means the Magic need to go 10-7 (58.8% win rate). Not even a Homer-McHomerson would believe that is possible for this team. Add to that that we have probably seen the last of a "normal" rotation ....

As an aside, the computers favor Orlando and Detroit to close out with 22 wins and Houston at 21. There is no lottery advantage at slotting 2 vs. 3 so the coin flip that would result would be for the actual positioning.

In conclusion: brace for Orlando finishing as either the 29th or 28th worst team this year. It is the most probable outcome. But there is an outside chance that Orlando finishes dead last as the 30th worst team.

p.s. it is still mathematically possible for Orlando to make the play-ins !!!! (( just win ))
The Magic number is 16, meaning 2 losses or two Atlanta wins and Orlando will not make the play-ins this year.

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Xatticus · Post #19 » by **Xatticus** » Sun Mar 6, 2022 10:50 pm

There isn’t enough season left for this to matter. The models have us at 22 wins for the year. Look at the standings. Our focus should be on sifting through the talent we have.

drsd · Post #20 » by **drsd** » Mon Mar 7, 2022 7:46 am

Xatticus wrote:There isn’t enough season left for this to matter. The models have us at 22 wins for the year. Look at the standings. Our focus should be on sifting through the talent we have.

Last game as an example:
Anthony: show-case stats in case there is a trade to be made
Hampton starting: can he be an NBA calibre player?
F-Wagner at only 24 minute: don't get injured
Okeke: can he be an NBA Starting-calibre player
Bamba: show-case stats in case there is a trade to be made

Schofield and Brazdeikis: is the practice squad leading to court-time capable minutes?
Ross (and then Harris): these two will alternate play to keep them game ready for off-season moments.
M-Wagner rehab game
Carter: don't get injured

I think the last 17 games will all have explainers as such. Actually winning is not defined above. That said, there will be another 4-6 fluke wins because something like "Schofield goes for 30" type box-score quotes.

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