We Are Winning Our Way Out of a Top Draft Pick

[drsd]

t's already mission accomplished as far as I'm concerned. The only difference between us and Houston is our floor, but it's important to note that the only way we actually end up with the 6th pick if our position holds is if Houston ends up with the 5th pick. The incentive to lose out at this point is negligible.

I am amazed that all mock drafts have some version of 104 set and then from 5 on it is almost like a random-player generator.

If Mathurin is available at 5 or 6, then I think he has to be the guy. But if Griffin or Davis is selected, that's fine too. In conclusion, I see no difference whatsoever in 5 vs. 6, as Orlando has many options at either slot.

... the only way we actually end up with the 6th pick if our position holds is if Houston ends up with the 5th pick.

Statistics is funny: both the worst team and the second worst team are most probable to draft 5th, exactly because of what you point to above.

..

[drsd]

Get to learn to love the number 52.14.

This number is the percent chance (52.14%) Orlando drafts in the top-4 (i.e. "wins" in the lottery).

[jonbob17]

Orlando cannot catch OKC and can only catch Detroit. That is, Orlando cannot finish "better" than a tied for the 29th worse team in the NBA.

The magic number for Orlando to be outright the 2nd worst team, guaranteed, in only one. That is, if Orlando has a loss in either of its two final games, or Detroit has a win in either of its two final games, Orlando is only "competing" with Houston for lotto balls.

There is a ~97% chance Orlando losses one of their final two games.
Three is also a ~63% chance Detroit wins one of their games.

I like the odds for Orlando to slot below Detroit.

It's already mission accomplished as far as I'm concerned. The only difference between us and Houston is our floor, but it's important to note that the only way we actually end up with the 6th pick if our position holds is if Houston ends up with the 5th pick. The incentive to lose out at this point is negligible.

Sure, BUT there is a 48% chance Houston picks 5th. There is little chance we finish in a position outside of 2nd worst at this point, so sure play them minutes now.
Of course there should have been enough statistical reason not to play guys this time Tuesday.

You want to see what late season tanking looks like, check out OKC's box score last night against Utah, and the Jazz had most of their rotation playing minutes until the game was out of hand. Maledon on Poku are too good to play. Good to see Melvin Frazier getting some run.
Better yet, OKC has 21 players listed on their roster, that is how deep they have gone to lose the last few

[fendilim]

This thread is lol

[drsd]

This thread is lol

[JBSouthpaw]

aged like fine whine!!

[shadrock]

aged like fine whine!!

Yawn.

[Optimus_Steel]

Always felt we were winning our way to the top!

Sent from my Pixel 5 using RealGM mobile app

[JBSouthpaw]

Im done with this team. Thats it. No more. This franchise still doesnt fuarking get it, that late season heartwarming wins DESTROY our top 3 pick chances, meanwhile teams who can actually stomach a tank overtake us and get the stars. Embarrassing to be connected to this franchise, the sooner this pyramid scheme milking ownership group sells the team and we move to Seattle or Vegas the better. Only then will i come back.

Yawn to you boy who cried wolf! I can't count the times you've quit this team. All you had to do was follow through once.

[CZ Eddie]

Ban @Orthoman!

[shadrock]

Im done with this team. Thats it. No more. This franchise still doesnt fuarking get it, that late season heartwarming wins DESTROY our top 3 pick chances, meanwhile teams who can actually stomach a tank overtake us and get the stars. Embarrassing to be connected to this franchise, the sooner this pyramid scheme milking ownership group sells the team and we move to Seattle or Vegas the better. Only then will i come back.

Yawn to you boy who cried wolf! I can't count the times you've quit this team. All you had to do was follow through once.

I stand by literally everything i said. This team was right on the edge of winning too many meaningless games late season. Its the reason we still suck 12 years after Dwight left. We dont get free agent stars in Orlando, we dont have the pieces for big trades, so its 100% draft that we rely on. For years we have picked a few picks too late and often thats been because we couldnt stomach a proper tank job, and because out PR happy franchise prioritised mickey mouse wins late season in the name of "building culture", albeit with players who are no longer even in Orlando now.

So like i said, i stand by my comments. Glad we finally had the balls bounce in our favour.

[Duradero]

Lock it up

[drsd]

Get to learn to love the number 52.14.

This number is the percent chance (52.14%) Orlando drafts in the top-4 (i.e. "wins" in the lottery).

Turns out 14.0 is an even better number (as in 14.0% chance to win the lottery).

Orlando winning the lottery was a 1 in 7.14 chance.

[KillMonger]

aged like milk

[richi_v25]

Some of our wins I actually really enjoyed like against the Knicks, I have nothing against them but I hate that their fanbase out numbers ours at home then we get the 1st pick too that's a cherry on top!

[ChosenSavior]

I think this thread has ran its course.