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The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic

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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#101 » by CZ Eddie » Fri May 20, 2022 10:21 pm

Aleksej Pokusevski hasn't been discussed in awhile.

Power Forward who is 7-0, 190lb

He played 45 games in 2020-21 as a rookie.
He played 61 games in 2021-22, averaging 20 minutes per game.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksej_Poku%C5%A1evski

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/pokusal01.html

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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#102 » by Mule Tears » Fri May 20, 2022 11:27 pm

I will vomit if we draft this frail, noodle-armed toothpick. HARD PASS!

JABARI @ 1

/end
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#103 » by Xatticus » Fri May 20, 2022 11:34 pm

Mule Tears wrote:I will vomit if we draft this frail, noodle-armed toothpick. HARD PASS!

JABARI @ 1

/end


I don't think it is /end though, is it?
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#104 » by Mule Tears » Fri May 20, 2022 11:36 pm

Xatticus wrote:
Mule Tears wrote:I will vomit if we draft this frail, noodle-armed toothpick. HARD PASS!

JABARI @ 1

/end


I don't think it is /end though, is it?


It should be as far as Chet goes. Heh.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#105 » by davey_wavy » Sat May 21, 2022 1:22 am

Chet-tuccine Alfredo. Pass
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#106 » by bigdogdylan5 » Sat May 21, 2022 3:38 am

I beg of people to at least watch some of him and not just say skinny hard pass. He is skinny that is true but man he has some skills and talent.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#107 » by fateis007 » Sat May 21, 2022 3:47 am

I just can't get over drafting a player being 20 and that skinny. Like maybe if he was Durant dropping 27/11 in college or something, but even then, durant was a SF, 4 inches shorter and had 20 lbs on him. It's just such a huge risk.

Is he extremely skilled? Yes. But were not talking Anthony davis out of college thin. His legs make Mo bomba look ripped, and we know how much he gets rag dolled.

If this pick goes bad, and his body cant deal with the physicality being huge in the NBA. Everyone is losing their job. I would play it safe here and ATLEAST pick someone you know can physically play in the nba right now. Maybe he can put in 10-15 lbs during offseason if hes selected.

Ingram is the only one I can see that came close. He was this skinny also, but not as tall. But also played SF, so not exactly the same.

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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#108 » by MagicFan101 » Sat May 21, 2022 3:56 am

JBSouthpaw wrote:
yoyojw17 wrote:
JBSouthpaw wrote:
And the 2 already in the NBA have struggled to stay on the court.

Lol... but that has no correlation with stats at all. but... funny.


Well, if you also added their slight builds to all 3, that would be a stat.


Or that they played for a team with the worst medical staff?

Hopefully we have managed to correct that finally.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#109 » by PrimeThyme » Sat May 21, 2022 4:10 am

Knightro wrote:
Read on Twitter

There’s obviously no correlation here and it wouldn’t deter me from drafting him, but it horrifies me nonetheless. No rationalization for it, but it just does.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#110 » by basketballRob » Sat May 21, 2022 4:20 am

If you replaced Chet with Jabari at Gonzaga, he would've put up some crazy stats.

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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#111 » by RookieStar » Sat May 21, 2022 4:29 am

basketballRob wrote:If you replaced Chet with Jabari at Gonzaga, he would've put up some crazy stats.

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If you put Chet with AUB wherein he doesnt have a defensive liability in Timme but instead the best shotblocker in Kessler, Chet might have displayed more as well.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#112 » by Nyce_1 » Sat May 21, 2022 11:40 am

CZ Eddie wrote:Aleksej Pokusevski hasn't been discussed in awhile.

Power Forward who is 7-0, 190lb

He played 45 games in 2020-21 as a rookie.
He played 61 games in 2021-22, averaging 20 minutes per game.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksej_Poku%C5%A1evski

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/pokusal01.html

Games played for any player on OKC have no weight, good or bad. They tanked hard and sat anyone that helped them win. I believe Poku had a triple-double(or big production output) late this season, in a win, and they sat him for the rest of the year.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#113 » by fendilim » Sat May 21, 2022 12:01 pm

Wouldnt be surprised if we ended up picking Chet.

He has one of the highest STOCKS in college.

And based on Kevin Pelton’s WARP right now (stats only)..

2 Jabari Smith Auburn PF Top 100: No. 2 Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 3.3 WARP

From a statistical standpoint, Smith's low 2-point percentage (44%) limits his projection a bit. Per Synergy Sports tracking, Smith made just 60% of his attempts inside 5 feet, as compared to 82.5% for Chet Holmgren. Smith is also fond of long 2-point attempts, which he makes at a decent clip (40%) but are not nearly as valuable as his 43% shooting from beyond the arc. Still, Smith projects well and has time at just 18 years old to improve on those weaknesses.

1 Chet Holmgren Gonzaga PF Top 100: No. 1 Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.4 WARP

It's actually relatively rare historically for the top prospect by the stats-only version of my projections to go No. 1 overall. It's happened just two times dating back to 2006, the first year for which I have full projections: Anthony Davis in 2012 and Zion Williamson in 2019. Holmgren isn't quite in their class as clear top prospects, but his consensus projection ranks among the top 10 for all players in that span.


Chet has the highest WARP and we know how much the role of WARP has played out in our draft list.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#114 » by basketballRob » Sat May 21, 2022 12:09 pm

RookieStar wrote:
basketballRob wrote:If you replaced Chet with Jabari at Gonzaga, he would've put up some crazy stats.

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If you put Chet with AUB wherein he doesnt have a defensive liability in Timme but instead the best shot-blocker in Kessler, Chet might have displayed more as well.
Auburn outside of Jabari was probably the worst shooting in basketball. The paint would've been clogged, plus Kessler would've taken rebounds and blocks from him.

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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#115 » by Skybox » Sat May 21, 2022 3:17 pm

Just too much risk of bust, IMO...if I thought his upside was miles ahead, clear #1 - I'd do it. I'm willing to bet on Jabari (or Paolo if FO has a vision) and live with it if Chet is a star elsewhere. I'm not even riding the "fragile/injury" train (although there may be merit)...I just don't think he can compete with the NBA muscle he'll encounter...seems like a great kid, just risk/reward to me..."worst scenario" planning has to be a factor for ORL given some of their recent history...They're on a draft roll-don't blow it.

I also believe that a large portion of his defensive contributions are matched by Isaac (probably even bettered by Isaac's switching/perimeter play)...so, If Isaac is or isn't healthy, that could be a factor in the decision for sure.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#116 » by BadMofoPimp » Sat May 21, 2022 3:59 pm

bigdogdylan5 wrote:I beg of people to at least watch some of him and not just say skinny hard pass. He is skinny that is true but man he has some skills and talent.


No doubt he has talent. Won't mean much if he ends up a part time player due to injuries. Magic has had enough of that.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#117 » by BadMofoPimp » Sat May 21, 2022 4:07 pm

CZ Eddie wrote:Aleksej Pokusevski hasn't been discussed in awhile.

Power Forward who is 7-0, 190lb

He played 45 games in 2020-21 as a rookie.
He played 61 games in 2021-22, averaging 20 minutes per game.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksej_Poku%C5%A1evski

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/pokusal01.html



Shot 34.1% FG rookie year and 40.8% 2nd season. Shoots under 30% from 3. He has similar talent to Chet though the way he plays.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#118 » by Xatticus » Sat May 21, 2022 4:45 pm

Skybox wrote:Just too much risk of bust, IMO...if I thought his upside was miles ahead, clear #1 - I'd do it. I'm willing to bet on Jabari (or Paolo if FO has a vision) and live with it if Chet is a star elsewhere. I'm not even riding the "fragile/injury" train (although there may be merit)...I just don't think he can compete with the NBA muscle he'll encounter...seems like a great kid, just risk/reward to me..."worst scenario" planning has to be a factor for ORL given some of their recent history...They're on a draft roll-don't blow it.

I also believe that a large portion of his defensive contributions are matched by Isaac (probably even bettered by Isaac's switching/perimeter play)...so, If Isaac is or isn't healthy, that could be a factor in the decision for sure.


Should we draft the guy that is really good at basketball or should we come up with excuses not to? This is so tough. I can see how the Sacramento Kings **** it up as well.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#119 » by thelead » Sat May 21, 2022 4:58 pm

I’m firmly in the Jabari camp but it would be our luck for the guy to just forget how to shoot once he puts a magic jersey on and we’re left with a big project on our hands. That’s what keeps me thinking about Chet.
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Re: The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic 

Post#120 » by MagicMatic » Sat May 21, 2022 5:03 pm

Xatticus wrote:
Skybox wrote:Just too much risk of bust, IMO...if I thought his upside was miles ahead, clear #1 - I'd do it. I'm willing to bet on Jabari (or Paolo if FO has a vision) and live with it if Chet is a star elsewhere. I'm not even riding the "fragile/injury" train (although there may be merit)...I just don't think he can compete with the NBA muscle he'll encounter...seems like a great kid, just risk/reward to me..."worst scenario" planning has to be a factor for ORL given some of their recent history...They're on a draft roll-don't blow it.

I also believe that a large portion of his defensive contributions are matched by Isaac (probably even bettered by Isaac's switching/perimeter play)...so, If Isaac is or isn't healthy, that could be a factor in the decision for sure.


Should we draft the guy that is really good at basketball or should we come up with excuses not to? This is so tough. I can see how the Sacramento Kings **** it up as well.


I understand this logic, but if he has a season ending injury during his rookie season nobody can say the red flags weren’t there.

Jonathan Isaac is also good at basketball. You just wouldn’t know because he hasn’t seriously played since 2018-2019.

Do you think fans would give the FO a pass if/when Chet gets seriously injured knowing everything fans have endured waiting for Isaac to see the court? Orlando will be a meme if that happens.

I don’t really care who this FO takes in the draft. The only caveat to that statement will be if they take Chet and he can’t keep healthy in a regular nba season. Why? Because this was the only concern with him as the pick. If the offense remains ****, while the had the opportunity to draft a knockdown shooter, then that’s on them as well.

If they think spending the #1 pick in the draft on Chet is a good investment, then by all means go for it.

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