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Cole Anthony Starting?

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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#41 » by drsd » Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:36 am

Bensational wrote:While the 3pt % gap seems large, it’s really not. As a rookie Cole took 0.4 less attempts per game and made
0.3 more shots per game (Cole 1.2/3.7, Suggs 0.9/4.1). If Suggs makes 1 extra 3 in every 3 games then the gap is closed. I think that’s very achievable.

But that’s only for him to reach Cole’s poor efficiency, he needs to do more to reach league average. Meanwhile Suggs plays defense and looks to actually pass the ball to his teammates more.

It’s really not a hard call to make. Cole is a scorer who can’t score efficiently. Suggs is a defender and team player who can’t score efficiently.


If Orlando (re)signs Harris/Oladipo, etc., as the SG starter, then Suggs and Anthony will get a lot of bench minutes together. It will be interesting to learn about their compatibilities.


..
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#42 » by The-Stallion70 » Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:54 am

Bensational wrote:
It’s really not a hard call to make. Cole is a scorer who can’t score efficiently. Suggs is a defender and team player who had one of the worst seasons offensively in the history of the league.


Fixed
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#43 » by basketballRob » Sat Jun 11, 2022 10:59 am

Does anyone know if we picked up the option on RJ? I think we have until June 29th.

Without him, it might be easier to figure out the minute's distribution.

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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#44 » by Knightro » Sat Jun 11, 2022 11:54 am

Bensational wrote:It’s really not a hard call to make. Cole is a scorer who can’t score efficiently. Suggs is a defender and team player who can’t score efficiently.


Bingo.

Suggs absolutely had a terrible rookie year offensively. He shot the ball very poorly and turned it over a lot. But he did provide positive value defensively and he was able to have a pretty solid free throw rate as a rookie which gives me some optimism he can improve offensively.

Cole Anthony was bad both offensively *and* defensively as a rookie (-2.1 ORaptor, -3.0 DRaptor, -5.1 RAPTOR) and while his offense went from horrible to mediocre in year 2, his defense remained very poor.

If Suggs can just see some moderate improvement offensively like Anthony did from year 1 to year 2, he’ll be miles better than Cole was this past year.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#45 » by Knightro » Sat Jun 11, 2022 12:09 pm

For context…

Cole went from -2.1 ORAP to -0.1 and -3.0 DRAP to -2.0 from his rookie to sophomore year.

So in one season his ORAP improved by 2.0 and his DRAP improved by 1.0.

Suggs as a rookie had a very poor -4.2 ORAP, but a very good +2.8 DRAP.

If he follows a similar trend to Cole and improves offensively by 2.0 and improves defensively by 1.0, he’ll be -2.2 ORAP and +3.8 DRAP for a total of +1.6 RAPTOR.

+1.6 RAPTOR would have ranked No. 1 on the Magic last year of guys who played enough minutes, ahead of Franz and Wendell.

Long story short, if Suggs can continue to play really good defense, even marginal improvement offensively will make him an overall positive contributor.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#46 » by jezzerinho » Sat Jun 11, 2022 1:08 pm

I love how Suggs and Fultz are locks to be better players next season but Anthony is doomed to be as bad or worse.

I'm not the world's biggest Cole fan by far, but the playing field is so tilted away from him on RealGM it's funny.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#47 » by IllMagic04 » Sat Jun 11, 2022 1:10 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
Bensational wrote:
The-Stallion70 wrote:Suggs wasn't just a bad shooter but he was also very turnover prone, extremely questionable decision maker and would often throw errant passes to teammates that would take them out of position in order to catch it. Suggs would throw these bullet passes three feet above someone's head when they were standing behind the three point line in the corner. They would have to jump so high in order to catch it to avoid turnovers and then they would have to try to save it and it woukd kill the shot clock abd discombobulate the offense. He would also often take contested, unnecessary shots too early in the shot clock. Both Cole and Fultz were better than Suggs last year, Suggs was so horrible on offense even if he was great on defense.


Cole and Suggs have very similar stats per36, and Cole is a 2nd year player who’s numbers we’re almost identical to his rookie numbers. Cole is marginally better as a shooter, but considering that’s his strength (other than fighting his own teammates for rebounds to pad his stats), it doesn’t paint a stronger picture for him.

Cole could be due for a 3rd year breakout, to be fair to him. But considering he’s had back to back years with the same numbers and poor efficiency, I’m doubtful of big gains. Suggs doesn’t have to do much to close the gap on Cole offensively, and defensively Cole will never close that gap.



Cole rookie season
39,7% FG
33,7% for 3
44,9% eFG
49,6% TS


Suggs
36% FG
21,4% for 3
40% eFG
45,5% TS

so 5% in eFG and 4,6% TS is the difference ( along with 3 point massive 12,3%). DIfference between is same as difference between rookie Cole Anthony and Malcolm Brogdon winning ROY ( or , efficiency vise- Dame Lillard ROY season , just with 19 ppg instad of 11-13 ppg ).

So shooting efficiency gap is rather massive one, not marginal.

Suggs was 2 three point shots away from breaking record of lowest 3 point shooter on 200 attemps in nba history, and only 1 nba player in modern history shot 3 ball worst in single season on 100 attemps than he did. Lance Stephenson.

Where Cole didn't set world on fire, having 52% TS for sophmore playing on team that has top 3 worst offense in nba, isn't really all that bad.

There is very strong bias on this forum in favor of Suggs due his draft status.
There is also very strong bias against Cole Anthony mostly because fans here tend to have wet dreams about Fultz because 6 years ago somebody told them he will be elite PG so they can't let it go.
This is all fine, but reality is bit different than narrative. Cole is chucker and lacks self awarness. HOWEVER, Fultz is still top 5 worst starting PG in nba, Suggs had historically awful rookie year. Magic still best path toward brighter future leads through trade for established elite ballhandler, instad of having army of awful ones.

As for "development", Suggs, Hampton, Cole are basically all the same age. Hampton showed zero improvments in 2 years, Cole marginal improvments. I don't expect Suggs to return and start shooting great. History says that basketball players don't enter Cap America steroid chamber in offseason and become new players next year. Especially if those players were objectivlly worst rotation players in some segments.

Nowdays, Magic PG rotation gives outlook for fans where they argue who is better: s**y version of Bledsoe, Reggie Jackson clone or shorter Jordan Crawford.
I disagree with the Fultz part but yall can't ignore those numbers. Suggs being better on defense does not make him a better player when he's not better at anything else. If you remember Coles rookie season he started out really awful shooting the ball and still ended up shooting it much better the Suggs. Cole also had injuries too. His first step aint better then Coles, his handles aint better then Coles. Theres a reason Cole was still the primary ball handler before Fultz came back. Im not giving up on Suggs but he's def gotta come off the bench next year. A 21% 3 point shooter cannot play next to Fultz. Suggs has a ways to go just to be as good as Cole offensively and Cole isn't even that good.

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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#48 » by The-Stallion70 » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:21 pm

Knightro wrote:
Bensational wrote:It’s really not a hard call to make. Cole is a scorer who can’t score efficiently. Suggs is a defender and team player who can’t score efficiently.


Bingo.

Suggs absolutely had a terrible rookie year offensively. He shot the ball very poorly and turned it over a lot. But he did provide positive value defensively and he was able to have a pretty solid free throw rate as a rookie which gives me some optimism he can improve offensively.

Cole Anthony was bad both offensively *and* defensively as a rookie (-2.1 ORaptor, -3.0 DRaptor, -5.1 RAPTOR) and while his offense went from horrible to mediocre in year 2, his defense remained very poor.

If Suggs can just see some moderate improvement offensively like Anthony did from year 1 to year 2, he’ll be miles better than Cole was this past year.


Why not post the stats for both players in each season?

2021-22 Cole Anthony: -0.1 OWS 1.7 DWS 1.6 Total Winshares 0.38 ws/48

2021-22 Jalen Suggs : -3.0 OWS (in 48 games) 1.3 DWS -1.6 Total Winshares -0.060 ws/48

2020-21 Cole Anthony: -0.9 OWS -0.9 DWS 0.0 Total winshares -0.001 ws/48

Suggs totaled -3 offensive winshares in his 48 games played and had negative total winshares despite strong DWS production.

Cole was dead even as a rookie and marginally better last year. This debate is more about which measure you value more, RAPTOR or winshares.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#49 » by Knightro » Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:54 pm

The-Stallion70 wrote:Why not post the stats for both players in each season?

2021-22 Cole Anthony: -0.1 OWS 1.7 DWS 1.6 Total Winshares 0.38 ws/48

2021-22 Jalen Suggs : -3.0 OWS (in 48 games) 1.3 DWS -1.6 Total Winshares -0.060 ws/48

2020-21 Cole Anthony: -0.9 OWS -0.9 DWS 0.0 Total winshares -0.001 ws/48

Suggs totaled -3 offensive winshares in his 48 games played and had negative total winshares despite strong DWS production.

Cole was dead even as a rookie and marginally better last year. This debate is more about which measure you value more, RAPTOR or winshares.


One of my issues with both defensive win shares and defensive box plus minus is that they both IMO too heavily weigh defensive rebounds as a positive defensive metric for a player. The logic is that a defensive rebound technically ends an offensive possession, thus making it a positive result for the defense, but there are a lot of players who rack up defensive rebounds (Cole is one of them IMO) who aren't actually capable defensively at all.

Take Russell Westbrook for example.

In 2016-2017 (the year he won MVP) he had 4.6 defensive win shares and a 2.4 defensive box plus/minus. But his defensive RAPTOR that season was only -0.9.

How? Because DWS and DBPM weighed his 727 defensive rebounds that season too heavily IMO.

Cole is a notorious defensive rebound chaser/thief, which is one of the few things keeping his bad defensive stats from being bottom of the barrel god awful.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#50 » by MagicMatic » Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:39 pm

People completely giving up on Suggs after an injury riddled rookie season on a trash roster are hilarious to me.

Cole Anthony isn’t a starter on a serious nba team.

Fultz is going into his 6th season and is average at best as a starter in this league. He does nothing exceptional and is overpaid for what he does provide. He’s been seriously injured 4/5 seasons he’s “played” and isn’t reliable. You might as well call him the guard version of Isaac.

Suggs will be starting on this team and people will do what? Cry for more Cole Anthony? Are you all masochists?
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#51 » by Flannerz » Sat Jun 11, 2022 11:50 pm

I'm just annoyed we didn't shut Suggs down and let him play on when he could have had the surgery earlier and have a lot of the summer to work on his game.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#52 » by ChiefWiggumz » Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:20 am

Suggs will definitely start over him. Cole is going to be.a great 6th man. I'd really like to trade back up into the 1st round and draft a young guard. I really like Dalen Terry from Arizona, he can do a little bit of everything and I think he will surprise a lot of people.

We need to push these guards and let the competition show who should be part of our core going forward.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#53 » by tommyg » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:35 am

Fultz and Suggs starting with Cole being the 6th man scoring punch off the bench.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#54 » by JTG_92940618 » Sun Jun 12, 2022 5:07 am

It's close but despite Suggs having clearly better pedigree (size, athleticism, desire, team orientation) we can't just hand him a start spot over Cole when Cole has outperformed him. Cole also gives us a lot more offensive hit and it's that side of the floor that we need help with.

All things being equal, Suggs should be able to leverage his superior traits into eventually overtaking Cole but based on what I've seen, if the season opener was tomorrow (and Suggs wasn't in a moot boot), Cole should start over Suggs.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#55 » by Bergmaniac » Sun Jun 12, 2022 10:54 am

JTG_92940618 wrote:It's close but despite Suggs having clearly better pedigree (size, athleticism, desire, team orientation) we can't just hand him a start spot over Cole when Cole has outperformed him.

Sure we can. Players with higher potential start over others which have outperformed them so far all the time in this league. We have to think long term. Besides, it's not like Cole has outperformed Suggs by a large margin so far in this career. You can easily make the case they have been about even or that Suggs has been better. Suggs is a way better defender and Cole while better offensive is not a good offensive player himself.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#56 » by zaymon » Sun Jun 12, 2022 11:28 am

Bergmaniac wrote:
JTG_92940618 wrote:It's close but despite Suggs having clearly better pedigree (size, athleticism, desire, team orientation) we can't just hand him a start spot over Cole when Cole has outperformed him.

Sure we can. Players with higher potential start over others which have outperformed them so far all the time in this league. We have to think long term. Besides, it's not like Cole has outperformed Suggs by a large margin so far in this career. You can easily make the case they have been about even or that Suggs has been better. Suggs is a way better defender and Cole while better offensive is not a good offensive player himself.


If we will build around Wagner + #1 fit will matter as much as talent.
If we want to switch a lot, Anthony has no chance starting. If we want to mostly fight over screens we need Isaac or Chet to block guys going full speed to the rim :) Overall if Cole is not the engine of your offense there is little reason to start him.
My money is on Banchero going number 1 !
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#57 » by JTG_92940618 » Sun Jun 12, 2022 12:20 pm

Bergmaniac wrote:
JTG_92940618 wrote:It's close but despite Suggs having clearly better pedigree (size, athleticism, desire, team orientation) we can't just hand him a start spot over Cole when Cole has outperformed him.

Sure we can. Players with higher potential start over others which have outperformed them so far all the time in this league. We have to think long term. Besides, it's not like Cole has outperformed Suggs by a large margin so far in this career. You can easily make the case they have been about even or that Suggs has been better. Suggs is a way better defender and Cole while better offensive is not a good offensive player himself.


I guess it depends on how you want to develop guys. This last season I don't think much mattered but as we get better, we're going to have to expect more from these guys and make them earn some stuff. To that end, if Suggs is really better than Cole, he should be able to take the starting spot from him.

If we do this correctly, we should have Suggs and Cole bringing the best out of each other through some friendly competition. If we do it incorrectly we'll have an entitled prick in the starting 5 and a disgruntled prick on the bench.

That's just my 2c.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#58 » by j-ragg » Sun Jun 12, 2022 12:39 pm

If we traded/didn’t bring back RJ, Cole and Bamba I think it’d have a tremendous positive ‘addition by subtraction’ effect.

Only thing I’d miss is Cole locker room energy with the guys. He feels like good vibes, and his interviews are top notch.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#59 » by JBSouthpaw » Sun Jun 12, 2022 12:53 pm

I think Suggs has the chance to be the better player, but I'm reading post after post of:

"IF Suggs improves"
We really need them both to improve.

Cole is closer to becoming a 40% 3pt shooter than Suggs is to becoming a 30% 3pt shooter.
Cole's FT % vs. Suggs is a good indicator.
Cole was 20th in the league in assists, on a team not great at shooting.

Let's not write off this guy.
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Re: Cole Anthony Starting? 

Post#60 » by Ralof » Sun Jun 12, 2022 3:49 pm

j-ragg wrote:
Only thing I’d miss is Cole locker room energy with the guys. He feels like good vibes, and his interviews are top notch.


energy,locker room guy,good vibes,but if you take those type of shots on the floor,i prefer hannibal the cannibal if he can at least share the ball a bit

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