The Official Paolo Banchero Thread: 2022-2023 NBA Rookie of the Year

[tooler]

It just makes me feel a bit strange, it feels so clear cut to me but these talking heads man. I saw a video with the ringer with one of the hosts of the video saying Jalen Williams may have the better career....I'm thinking like, P5 is having a season similar to rookie lebron... Make it make sense

Of course absolutely anything is possible, but that seems like a weird take. He had two extra season in college than Paolo and hasn’t faced the league reacting to him (traditionally in year 2, could argue it was the middle of this season for Paolo). With SGA, Chet, and Giddey on his roster, it’s possible the league never does because they have bigger things to worry about.

You never know though.

[eyriq]

The issue with advanced stats is that they miss the difference in role. He's our #1 option, the other rookies are role players. Voters will absolutely consider this and ignore efficiency.

[BaunceyChillups]

Yes players tend to have their efficiency metrics go up when they play next to a 31 PPG All-NBA Player.

The only efficient rookies in 'recent' history who had similar roles to Paolo right now were Zion (played only 24 games) and Embiid (played only 31 games and missed two years). His efficiency stats were heavily skewed downward because of the only 1 three made in February (that he's already largely turned around in March) but even with that he's still in the same ballpark as Luka and Donovan Mitchell re rookie efficiency. Paolo is likely going to be only the 5th rookie in the last 12 years who's averaged 20 his first season--to not give him the award is absurd.

[Bergmaniac]

Yeah, almost all rookies who are Number 1 options on bad teams have poor efficiency, I am not worried about this. Even KD was quite inefficient in his rookie season. Paolo's ability to get to the line means he doesn't need to improve his shooting all that much to become an efficient scorer.

[basketballRob]

Paolo compared to Trae Young's rookie season. Surprisingly, Paolo is getting to the 3 more times per 100 possessions.

Trae's second season, he averaged 29.6 ppg.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=youngtr01&p1yrfrom=2019&player_id2=banchpa01&p2yrfrom=2023

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[Knightro]

Paolo compared to Trae Young's rookie season. Surprisingly, Paolo is getting to the 3 more times per 100 possessions.

Trae's second season, he averaged 29.6 ppg.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=youngtr01&p1yrfrom=2019&player_id2=banchpa01&p2yrfrom=2023]

Maybe one day you'll probably stop comparing players who don't play the same positions or have the same roles

Trae Young in his 2nd season had the ball in his hands more than any other player in the league.

[basketballRob]

Paolo compared to Trae Young's rookie season. Surprisingly, Paolo is getting to the 3 more times per 100 possessions.

Trae's second season, he averaged 29.6 ppg.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=youngtr01&p1yrfrom=2019&player_id2=banchpa01&p2yrfrom=2023]

Maybe one day you'll probably stop comparing players who don't play the same positions or have the same roles

Trae Young in his 2nd season had the ball in his hands more than any other player in the league.

I have faith that Paolo can average 29 ppg next season.

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[Knightro]

I have faith that Paolo can average 29 ppg next season.

I like Paolo, but I'm just not seeing that at all.

29 PPG is really difficult to do. Only 6 NBA players are doing it right now.

[MasterGMer]

I have faith that Paolo can average 29 ppg next season.

I like Paolo, but I'm just not seeing that at all.

29 PPG is really difficult to do. Only 6 NBA players are doing it right now.

I hope Paolo has a productive and successful summer. He has so much to work on. His 3 point shooting and free throw. He has to lose some weight and become a better ball handler. I really like him. And I think the Sky is the limit!

[SOUL]

Paolo isn't going to have that green light next season but depending on our personnel in the future I can see a steady 23-27 ppg sort of situation.

[Skybox]

Paolo isn't going to have that green light next season but depending on our personnel in the future I can see a steady 23-27 ppg sort of situation.

Honestly, any more than that indicates a terrible team, imo. That much from a PF is reminiscent of our Vuc offense.

[drsd]

Paolo isn't going to have that green light next season but depending on our personnel in the future I can see a steady 23-27 ppg sort of situation.

And-1

Banchero on ~34 mpg is taking 15.7 shots per game. That leads the team. Last season Anthony lead the team on 14 fga per game. Before that, Vučević on 20.6 per, Vučević on 16.7 per, Vučević on 16.9 per, Gordon on 14.9 per, Fournier on 13.7 per, Vučević on 16.1 per, Vučević on 16.3 per, Afflalo on 13.8 per, Harris on 14.7 per, Howard on 13.4 per, Howard on 13.4 per. That takes us back to 2010-11.

F-Wagner went from 12.3 per last year to 14.1 fga per this year. Let's sum this up and expect Banchor to add about 1 fga per game next year; 1/2 on 2 balls and 1/3 to three balls. And add efficiency.

If Banchero goes from .286 to .32 with his three-ball, from .47 to .52 with his two ball and gets more fouls per attempt to go from 7.8 fta per game to 9, this leads to

2 points per game would be 12.9 fga per game at .52 = 13.4 ppg from twos
3 points per game would be 4.7 fga per game at .32 = 4.5 ppg from threes
FTs per game would be 9 fta per game at .75 = 6.8 ppg from FTs

In conclusion: I forecast 13.4 + 4.5 + 6.8 = 24.7 ppg next year from Banchero based on tiny usage increases and normal efficiency increases.


p.s. He probably makes the allstar game on that scoring stat line.

[KillMonger]

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[pepe1991]

Paolo isn't going to have that green light next season but depending on our personnel in the future I can see a steady 23-27 ppg sort of situation.

I don't care about his PPG count, i just want to see upgrade over that 42-28 percentages split

[tooler]

Paolo isn't going to have that green light next season but depending on our personnel in the future I can see a steady 23-27 ppg sort of situation.

I don't care about his PPG count, i just want to see upgrade over that 42-28 percentages split

If he tries hard like Cole, maybe he can get there!

[Audi]

Looks like Paolo gave an explanation for that poor 3pt shooting Feb.

"No one really knows this, it is my first time really saying it but I had nerve damage that was in my neck and it went through down my whole right arm. The injury happened, I think, in the last game of January (against Philadelphia) and so the whole February, my whole right arm was kind of messed up. I don’t want to blame that as the whole reason why I went 1-for-33 but people see that and 3% is crazy.
I do attribute it to that injury and once I got that out of the way and once February passed, everything went back up. I got my arm healthy. I did a lot of work on my nerves to try and get it right. I got through it by staying down. I had played a good season the whole way leading up to that so I didn’t really lose confidence, it was just trying to be more efficient. I knew I was going to get through it. I wasn’t too worried."

- Paolo on Ryen Russillo podcast

[basketballRob]

Looks like Paolo gave an explanation for that poor 3pt shooting Feb.

"No one really knows this, it is my first time really saying it but I had nerve damage that was in my neck and it went through down my whole right arm. The injury happened, I think, in the last game of January (against Philadelphia) and so the whole February, my whole right arm was kind of messed up. I don’t want to blame that as the whole reason why I went 1-for-33 but people see that and 3% is crazy.
I do attribute it to that injury and once I got that out of the way and once February passed, everything went back up. I got my arm healthy. I did a lot of work on my nerves to try and get it right. I got through it by staying down. I had played a good season the whole way leading up to that so I didn’t really lose confidence, it was just trying to be more efficient. I knew I was going to get through it. I wasn’t too worried."

- Paolo on Ryen Russillo podcast

https://open.spotify.com/episode/23iQNIMFVdAaHzynkbRYfj?si=gYoFsswFQQe6VETDu0mtPQ

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[KillMonger]

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[Knightro]

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[Audi]

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That finger gun move at the 28sec mark with Killian Hayes in the background writhing on the floor is *chefs kiss*