The Franz Wagner Thread

[PrimeThyme]

As one of our cornerstone building blocks, I feel like a dedicated thread to discuss him is in order.

After coming in with somewhat lower expectations as our 2nd 1st round pick, Franz burst onto the scene finishing 1st team all rookie and 4th in ROTY voting in what is predicted to be one of the most historic draft classes in recent memory.

With that said, what are we expecting out of Franz going forward?

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

I found this quote after last nights game to be an interesting reference point. With Franz’s ability to create off the dribble for himself and others, I think him developing into a Luka-lite type of player isn’t completely out of the cards.

We saw him begin to shoot some of the off the dribble 3’s in euro ball:

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

This is something I’m going to be tracking throughout the season. There will be some growing pains with him taking on higher usage and more playmaking abilities, but I think the potential rewards we could reap from it are huge.

[VFX]

I’m going with Perennial All-star (4+ appearances) for his ceiling.

He was a solid starter his rookie season. I believe this season he will be utilized as a higher end starter shouldering the majority of the offense with Paolo.

If he continues to transform himself into a point-forward, and learns to find more ways to create for himself and others, he will be one of the top wings.

The big question will come from the back court. Playing next to Paolo and Carter have already made things easier for him (albeit one game). Having a reliable back court will allow him to do a lot more.

I don’t think he’s on the level of Doncic where he’s capable of creating offense out of thin air, but who knows. I’d obviously be ecstatic if he became a first team nba talent type of guy.

[tooler]

The game last night showed me there's a difference between having a guy be a major part of the offense and having him bring the ball up the court every possession as the entire offensive engine of a team.

I love Franz but I don't think he's a Doncic, Harden, LeBron, etc. where you take the ball out of your own hoop, hand it to him on your own baseline, and tell him to go to work. Even last December I don't recall them doing that to him like they did last night.

Instead he's someone you make sure always touches the ball each possession, he's someone you run a little action for to get him going downhill to make a smart play, and yes, at the right time, you give him the ball and tell him to make something happen.

In the regular season we need our guards to run most of the offense and keep things flowing. In the playoffs if we need a bucket, give the ball to Franz or Paolo and put them to work.

[Skin]

I love the Euro comps, but why did they stop? I suggest...

HOF potential (Dirk)
Perennial All-star (Doncic)
High-end starter (Prime Turk)
Average starter (Bogdonavic)
Borderline starter (Fournier)

Which in this case, I select High-end starter. I don't see 4+ All Star appearances, if any All-Star selections. Love the guy, but I don't think the rest of America will see it. ...and I think Turk should've been an All-Star.

[Bakomagic]

Struggled with ball pressure yesterday, but I was happy to see it pissed him off!

Seems like the type of player who gets motivated by a weakness and works relentlessly to improve it.

[KillMonger]

All-Star level talent in my eyes....had 20/5/4 last game and it was considered an off game....bright future, glad we got him

[fendilim]

If he becomes a perennial all-star, I do believe he can go to HOF. Because of he will be the next great German star, if that happens, and will be an influence to Germany’s younger generation

[pepe1991]

That poole is bit funky.

Fournier wil by the end of this year start in more games than Turkogulu did in his entire career.

Assuming Bogdanovic is "Bojan" not Bogdan, today he is one of 18 nba players ( retired and active) who averages 15 ppg on 39% for 3 for career. Rest of that category are Ray Allen, Peja Stojakovic, Drazen Petrovic, Klay, Curry, Towns, Allan Houston, Price, Cj McCullum, Reggie Miller... So he is more than "average starter".




If i had to choose today, i think Franz can become allstar eventually. Witch, itself, is also funky thing because allstars are now mostly picked by fans, not experts, nor there is any objective criteria for it.
Case and point Jrue Holiday now, for 5 years in a row is guy who averages near 20 points, has over 6 assists and 5 rebounds, is elite defender yet he only played in one allstar game, decade ago.

First team all nba is also crowded with young players. Luka is 23, Ingram 25, Tatum 24, Young 24, Zion 22, Ja Morant is 22 hell, embiid , Jokic and Giannis are just 27-28.

And there are those guys who are in nba forver but not really that old like Davis ( 29), Siakam (28), Irving (29), Murray ( 25), Booker (25)... All of them have solid 4,5,6,7 years to give.


Top of the nba is crazy good. Last year oldest player picked in all nba first team was 27 years old. Giannis. Those guys will no nowhere in next 6-7 years. Among top 7 , by Vegas odds favorites for MVP award, 3 of them are younger than 25. (Tatum, Luka, Morant).

So when you put into perspective, Franz can hopefully become player that makes couple of allstar games. But it will all depend on how many games Magic can win and how relevant they will be in future ,especially playoffs.
To understand how hard it is to get to allstar game nowdays - Jaylen Brown was not allstar last year. He averaged 24- 6-3,5.
Wiggins on West, due funky voting was starter while averaging 17 -4-2

[Catledge]

The game last night showed me there's a difference between having a guy be a major part of the offense and having him bring the ball up the court every possession as the entire offensive engine of a team.

I love Franz but I don't think he's a Doncic, Harden, LeBron, etc. where you take the ball out of your own hoop, hand it to him on your own baseline, and tell him to go to work. Even last December I don't recall them doing that to him like they did last night.

Instead he's someone you make sure always touches the ball each possession, he's someone you run a little action for to get him going downhill to make a smart play, and yes, at the right time, you give him the ball and tell him to make something happen.

In the regular season we need our guards to run most of the offense and keep things flowing. In the playoffs if we need a bucket, give the ball to Franz or Paolo and put them to work.

As far as I can tell, it's a role that Franz has literally never played before. The turnovers were worrisome, but I'm willing to ride out the experiment for a few months.

It reminds me a little of the Oladipo days. It looks ugly, but I'm not sure the outcome is worse than the alternative, and there's a chance that he might grow into the role was some experience. Franz has clearly shown a willingness and ability to grow his game, and it's not really the end of the world if March comes around and we see the experiment didn't work out.

[tooler]

It reminds me a little of the Oladipo days. It looks ugly, but I'm not sure the outcome is worse than the alternative, and there's a chance that he might grow into the role was some experience. Franz has clearly shown a willingness and ability to grow his game, and it's not really the end of the world if March comes around and we see the experiment didn't work out.

This is a good way to view it, though in Oladipo’s case I feel like the PG experiment ended up holding him back medium-term.

As long as Franz doesn’t get frustrated and he’s still making big contributions (ignoring the turnovers) then I’ll put my faith in him to figure it out. It just feels a bit like one of those square peg round hole situations, like a guy that’s too good with the ball not to give it to him, but there are so many other ball handlers that you have to make this wacky rotation so everyone gets a chance. I don’t think he’s like that. Just do normal rotations and let him play.

Maybe they will when Fultz and Cole are back.

[Def Swami]

I initially thought it was high end starter when we drafted him, but that has to be readjusted. I hate putting a limit on his ceiling, but realistically it's perennial all-star. I'm hoping the Magic can turn Banchero-Wagner into their version of Tatum-Brown or Leonard-George.

[NavalAviator94]

He’s talented enough now(or will be soon) to become a credible Allstar. We’ll see if he gets the publicity to ever get there.

I’m honestly not thinking about that although it would be nice. I’m seeing a max player and now likely two with Paolo. The clock is now ticking on this team to figure it out going into next year.


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[PrimeThyme]

That poole is bit funky.

Don’t overthink it.

The caveat was “Prime Turk” (or “Peak Turk” would work as well), who was the third best player, closer, and primary playmaker on an NBA finals team. That’s a level Evan has never and will never sniff. Bojan is not a top 15 player at his own position.

I think he is good, but he would hover in the average to slightly above average NBA starter range for me. The advanced stats certainly back that claim as well, especially defensively where it’s going to be interesting to see what the numbers look like without a generational defensive talent next to him. No All-stars, no All NBAs, No defensive teams, no awards, && was never really on a true contender. Those Utah teams never even sniffed a finals.

I think Franz can get to the perennial all-star level. In my eyes that would entail making a few 3rd all-NBA teams as well, which is more of an objective criteria to an extent that’s voted on by NBA media.

[Viper1500]

He’s talented enough now(or will be soon) to become a credible Allstar. We’ll see if he gets the publicity to ever get there.

I’m honestly not thinking about that although it would be nice. I’m seeing a max player and now likely two with Paolo. The clock is now ticking on this team to figure it out going into next year.


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That won’t happen until we start winning, sadly.


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[drsd]

MVP!

[UCFJayBird]

His development has been extraordinary. He's a guy i thought might be a solid starter one day when we drafted him. Quite frankly the way he's played this summer and now is where I thought he might peak, but he's still young. If he continues to work at it and can continue to improve, he could certainly become a perennial all-star, though I think that's a tough order in today's league.

Regardless, i look forward to watching him progress.

[pepe1991]

That poole is bit funky.

Don’t overthink it.

The caveat was “Prime Turk” (or “Peak Turk” would work as well), who was the third best player, closer, and primary playmaker on an NBA finals team. That’s a level Evan has never and will never sniff. Bojan is not a top 15 player at his own position.

I think he is good, but he would hover in the average to slightly above average NBA starter range for me. The advanced stats certainly back that claim as well, especially defensively where it’s going to be interesting to see what the numbers look like without a generational defensive talent next to him. No All-stars, no All NBAs, No defensive teams, no awards, && was never really on a true contender. Those Utah teams never even sniffed a finals.

I think Franz can get to the perennial all-star level. In my eyes that would entail making a few 3rd all-NBA teams as well, which is more of an objective criteria to an extent that’s voted on by NBA media.

Ehh

look at Franz Wagner numbers, Klay Thompson advanced stats, Korver, Bogdanovic and you will notice something.

Stats, even advanced stats, don't like players that don't padd box score

Franz had great rookie year, we can all agree with that, right ? Klay Thompson is HOF we can all agree with that.

Now look at numbers. Franz Wagner rookie year:
14,7 PER- below league average
BPM of -0,7
winshare of .079 as definition of mediocrity
value over replacment 0,8
55,9% TS


Klay Thompson career numbers
PER 16,4- slightly above average
DBPM -1,1 ( despite being all nba second team selectee once)
BPM of +0,8
winshare of .110
TS = 57,3% ( slightly above average)

Korver
PER 12,8 - below average
DBPM +0,1
BPM 0,6
winshare .113
TS 60%

so by advanced stats Kyle Korver is not only better shooter, not only more valuable player but also better defender. ( nonsense).

And core issue with is that majority of "advanced stats" are bi-product of some type of calculation that use steals, blocks and defensive rebounds as actual indicator of defense. So you can be best on ball ,positional defender in history, if you go home with 4 rebounds, 0,8 steals a game and sub 0,5 blocks, advanced stats will look at you as bum.

That's why you have Jokic paradox where he is by some advanced stats not only MVP but DPOY candidate, and you watch him play and...it's not pretty on defense. But, his DBPM is whooping +4,5 . Why? Well...rebounds.

Now look at "prime Turkogulu" year before 2007-08 season.
0,4 BPM , 52,8% TS, 0,0 DBPM while playing with DPOY, 14,2 PER.... Why? Well, agian, because he averaged 4 rpg and 0,2 blocks

Moral of the story: steal rebounds, gamble on passing lines, leave assigments to chase blocks and nba data will tell everybody you are "good defender". * Mo Bamba enters the chat*

[DiplomaticMagic]

Even though Franz struggled at PG in Detroit, I dont think it can be understated who his teammates are.

[Bensational]

The game last night showed me there's a difference between having a guy be a major part of the offense and having him bring the ball up the court every possession as the entire offensive engine of a team.

I love Franz but I don't think he's a Doncic, Harden, LeBron, etc. where you take the ball out of your own hoop, hand it to him on your own baseline, and tell him to go to work. Even last December I don't recall them doing that to him like they did last night.

Instead he's someone you make sure always touches the ball each possession, he's someone you run a little action for to get him going downhill to make a smart play, and yes, at the right time, you give him the ball and tell him to make something happen.

In the regular season we need our guards to run most of the offense and keep things flowing. In the playoffs if we need a bucket, give the ball to Franz or Paolo and put them to work.

I think a lot of his game is still falling into place, but I agree that he doesn’t seem like a one-man takeover unit. That said, I think he makes exceptionally smarter plays when he touches the ball compared to almost everyone else on the team. He manages to keep the ball alive and draw defenders to create space for others, or himself.

If his turnaround fadeaway becomes consistent he’ll be an absolute weapon with a pretty unstoppable shot with the eyes and timing to hit the open man. He’s going to be a great #2 to Paolo, who seems to have that takeover mentality and game.

[tooler]

Paolo said Franz is the guy he’s appreciated the most on the team because they both like to get to the facility and work on their game. It’s going to be great to watch them both develop.