Tracking the 538 RAPTOR model of the Orlando Magic

[eyriq]

I thought it would be interesting to analyze the 538 RAPTOR model of the Magic and track its evolution over the season. I suspect young players and frequently injured players are hard to model due to limited sample size, so I'm expecting some large errors, which should be especially fun for Orlando fans.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Current Win Rate: 34%
Future Win Rate: 32%

It sees us decelerating from our current pace. A two point drop is around a one win difference from our current run rate.

10th seed record: They project the 10th seed to have a record of 36-46.
Needed Win Rate: 50%
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.6%

We'd need to win 50% of our remaining games to get that record. RAPTOR would be off our win rate by 18 points, a pretty large error. Considering that we would also need to win both play-in games they see us making the playoffs as highly improbable. RAPTOR has this happening in 6 worlds out of a 1,000.

Some Player RAPTOR +-

Top 5 Offense
0.5 Markelle Fultz
0.3 Cole Anthony
0.2 Franz Wagner
-0.4 Paulo Banchero
-0.8 Moritz Wagner

Top 5 Defense
1.6 Wendell Carter Jr.
0.8 Jonathan Isaac
0.7 Franz Wagner
0.6 Mo Bamba
0.5 Jalen Suggs

Top 5 Total
0.9 Franz Wagner
0.0 Wendell Carter Jr.
-0.1 Markelle Fultz
-0.3 Jonathan Isaac
-0.4 Cole Anthony

A total +- of 0 is an average starter and a .500 team.

Some of the teams' early season struggles are weighing especially tough on Banchero as he wasn't involved in some of our wins due to injury. I expect his +- to improve.

The model makes assumptions about playing time and we get penalized on Fultz, Moe Wagner, and JI, who are all relegated to the deep bench with no playing time in a Full-strength rotation. If Fultz stays healthy and JI comes back this model will swing on that.

I think that we are an ideal dark horse candidate due to RAPTOR's assumptions around our rotation and its lack of sample size on our young players and oft injured players.

[JoshuaPotter]

So maybe I do not understand the model, but if I just look at it as a "projected wins today" I would think 27 is in range.

That being said, when you look up or back from our win streak. We aren't far enough away from dead last. So I think we finish somewhere with the 4-5th worst record barring yet even more injuries. Well see though. We had what I would call a lot of "happy coincidences" in players getting hot on the bench at the same time as shown by the +- stats.

Our core, as much as I am pained to say it is still net negative, so unless they turn it around at the top end, I do not see our bench carrying us indefinitely.

[thelead]

Not sure projections matter when the team that was playing last month isn’t the same team that will be playing next month. The injuries have to throw a wrench into that model… especially when we’re talking about young and unproven players.

[eyriq]

Not sure projections matter when the team that was playing last month isn’t the same team that will be playing next month. The injuries have to throw a wrench into that model… especially when we’re talking about young and unproven players.

Those are my thoughts well. The model represents a pretty objective view of our talent and prospects, but as fans we can easily see that the team has flipped a switch. I'm excited to see how the model adapts over time. I also really like that Fultz is recognized by the model as starter quality already while other advanced plus minus stats are lagging.

[JoshuaPotter]

Not sure projections matter when the team that was playing last month isn’t the same team that will be playing next month. The injuries have to throw a wrench into that model… especially when we’re talking about young and unproven players.

Those are my thoughts well. The model represents a pretty objective view of our talent and prospects, but as fans we can easily see that the team has flipped a switch. I'm excited to see how the model adapts over time. I also really like that Fultz is recognized by the model as starter quality already while other advanced plus minus stats are lagging.

Do you think you are searching for "hope" by looking for these stats?

There is another way to look at Fultz that will be hard to quantify per say at least given the current sample size.

Is Fultz actually a good guard on a bad team? Or is he a bad guard on a potentially good team? Or is he a bad guard on a bad team?

Bad here isn't meant as criticism. We are 5th worst in the league as of yesterday. I wouldn't even consider us playoff contenders or turning a corner because.

Most advanced stats don't show our starters with net positive +- yet. Certain combos do, some of those combos are with players that overall have not lived up to expectations. I can only think that adding more players back into the roster could cause more losses then wins initially.

[eyriq]

Not sure projections matter when the team that was playing last month isn’t the same team that will be playing next month. The injuries have to throw a wrench into that model… especially when we’re talking about young and unproven players.

Those are my thoughts well. The model represents a pretty objective view of our talent and prospects, but as fans we can easily see that the team has flipped a switch. I'm excited to see how the model adapts over time. I also really like that Fultz is recognized by the model as starter quality already while other advanced plus minus stats are lagging.

Do you think you are searching for "hope" by looking for these stats?

There is another way to look at Fultz that will be hard to quantify per say at least given the current sample size.

Is Fultz actually a good guard on a bad team? Or is he a bad guard on a potentially good team? Or is he a bad guard on a bad team?

Bad here isn't meant as criticism. We are 5th worst in the league as of yesterday. I wouldn't even consider us playoff contenders or turning a corner because.

Most advanced stats don't show our starters with net positive +- yet. Certain combos do, some of those combos are with players that overall have not lived up to expectations. I can only think that adding more players back into the roster could cause more losses then wins initially.

I'm personally looking for an objective benchmark for my "hope". There's the eye test through rose colored glasses and then there's this RAPTOR model. One sees us winning 50%+ of our remaining games, the other says the tank is STRONG.

By tracking this I'm expecting to see the model move into alignment with my hope that we are a .500 team. It'll be interesting to see how it handles player updates as well, watching which players improve in plus minus as it gets more evidence.

[JoshuaPotter]

Allow me to be bold, but I would look at trends with either of our "F" be it P or F. I think as we look at their individual plus minus and at their plus minus between who they gel well with we will start to see a turn.

Some of the +- numbers we were seeing (during the win streak) were outrageous. Not sustainable because +- between the same "starters" indicated we shouldn't be winning games. If your theory holds true and we are a .500 team then I would think the starters would have to trend towards or above 0 with certain combos be it starter or bench players averaging similar.

[JoshuaPotter]

Also Fultz being +.05 is probably the most interesting stat to support your hypothesis thus far. The challenge is, and I can't believe I read it on twitter. But people are taking notice of his "improved" 3pt shot. At this point, I would be happy if Futlz turns into Jameer Nelson, but I just don't see it.

Edit to say : The data pool is just too limited. But still welcome.

[eyriq]

Also Fultz being +.05 is probably the most interesting stat to support your hypothesis thus far. The challenge is, and I can't believe I read it on twitter. But people are taking notice of his "improved" 3pt shot. At this point, I would be happy if Futlz turns into Jameer Nelson, but I just don't see it.

Edit to say : The data pool is just too limited. But still welcome.

Listening to Paolo on JJ's podcast talk about Markelle's drive to win and compete is really positive. Going to be a fun rest of the season, which is kind of surprising to say in only the second year of a rebuild.

[jonbob17]

I thought it would be interesting to analyze the 538 RAPTOR model of the Magic and track its evolution over the season. I suspect young players and frequently injured players are hard to model due to limited sample size, so I'm expecting some large errors, which should be especially fun for Orlando fans.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Current Win Rate: 34%
Future Win Rate: 32%

It sees us decelerating from our current pace. A two point drop is around a one win difference from our current run rate.

10th seed record: They project the 10th seed to have a record of 36-46.
Needed Win Rate: 50%
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.6%

We'd need to win 50% of our remaining games to get that record. RAPTOR would be off our win rate by 18 points, a pretty large error. Considering that we would also need to win both play-in games they see us making the playoffs as highly improbable. RAPTOR has this happening in 6 worlds out of a 1,000.

Some Player RAPTOR +-

Top 5 Offense
0.5 Markelle Fultz
0.3 Cole Anthony
0.2 Franz Wagner
-0.4 Paulo Banchero
-0.8 Moritz Wagner

Top 5 Defense
1.6 Wendell Carter Jr.
0.8 Jonathan Isaac
0.7 Franz Wagner
0.6 Mo Bamba
0.5 Jalen Suggs

Top 5 Total
0.9 Franz Wagner
0.0 Wendell Carter Jr.
-0.1 Markelle Fultz
-0.3 Jonathan Isaac
-0.4 Cole Anthony

A total +- of 0 is an average starter and a .500 team.

Some of the teams' early season struggles are weighing especially tough on Banchero as he wasn't involved in some of our wins due to injury. I expect his +- to improve.

The model makes assumptions about playing time and we get penalized on Fultz, Moe Wagner, and JI, who are all relegated to the deep bench with no playing time in a Full-strength rotation. If Fultz stays healthy and JI comes back this model will swing on that.

I think that we are an ideal dark horse candidate due to RAPTOR's assumptions around our rotation and its lack of sample size on our young players and oft injured players.

FWIW the player RAPTOR you are presenting is projected not actual.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

[jezzerinho]

I find the Estimated Plus Minus "EPM" guys a bit more credible than Raptor, just in terms of who appears where in their ranking.

It doesn't have the cool name that Raptor and Lebron have, but i find it a better representation of how players are doing (from my limited comprehension of the game).

http://www.dunksandthrees.com

[eyriq]

I thought it would be interesting to analyze the 538 RAPTOR model of the Magic and track its evolution over the season. I suspect young players and frequently injured players are hard to model due to limited sample size, so I'm expecting some large errors, which should be especially fun for Orlando fans.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/

Current Win Rate: 34%
Future Win Rate: 32%

It sees us decelerating from our current pace. A two point drop is around a one win difference from our current run rate.

10th seed record: They project the 10th seed to have a record of 36-46.
Needed Win Rate: 50%
Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.6%

We'd need to win 50% of our remaining games to get that record. RAPTOR would be off our win rate by 18 points, a pretty large error. Considering that we would also need to win both play-in games they see us making the playoffs as highly improbable. RAPTOR has this happening in 6 worlds out of a 1,000.

Some Player RAPTOR +-

Top 5 Offense
0.5 Markelle Fultz
0.3 Cole Anthony
0.2 Franz Wagner
-0.4 Paulo Banchero
-0.8 Moritz Wagner

Top 5 Defense
1.6 Wendell Carter Jr.
0.8 Jonathan Isaac
0.7 Franz Wagner
0.6 Mo Bamba
0.5 Jalen Suggs

Top 5 Total
0.9 Franz Wagner
0.0 Wendell Carter Jr.
-0.1 Markelle Fultz
-0.3 Jonathan Isaac
-0.4 Cole Anthony

A total +- of 0 is an average starter and a .500 team.

Some of the teams' early season struggles are weighing especially tough on Banchero as he wasn't involved in some of our wins due to injury. I expect his +- to improve.

The model makes assumptions about playing time and we get penalized on Fultz, Moe Wagner, and JI, who are all relegated to the deep bench with no playing time in a Full-strength rotation. If Fultz stays healthy and JI comes back this model will swing on that.

I think that we are an ideal dark horse candidate due to RAPTOR's assumptions around our rotation and its lack of sample size on our young players and oft injured players.

FWIW the player RAPTOR you are presenting is projected not actual.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

Gotcha. Yeah I should have called that out.

[drsd]

So maybe I do not understand the model, but if I just look at it as a "projected wins today" I would think 27 is in range.

That being said, when you look up or back from our win streak. We aren't far enough away from dead last. So I think we finish somewhere with the 4-5th worst record barring yet even more injuries. Well see though. We had what I would call a lot of "happy coincidences" in players getting hot on the bench at the same time as shown by the +- stats.

Our core, as much as I am pained to say it is still net negative, so unless they turn it around at the top end, I do not see our bench carrying us indefinitely.

Agreed on "27". I would think 26-32 wins is the range the Magic will land at. And whilst that will have the Magic sniffing play-ins quite late to the season, it is very, very hard to see the Magic getting there.

That said: the Magic is currently only 2 1/2 games out of the play-ins. So maybe 32 wins get the Magic in.


..

[drsd]

I find the Estimated Plus Minus "EPM" guys a bit more credible than Raptor, just in terms of who appears where in their ranking.

It doesn't have the cool name that Raptor and Lebron have, but i find it a better representation of how players are doing (from my limited comprehension of the game).

http://www.dunksandthrees.com

What I love about this visual is that is clearly reveals the Magic has promoted form terrible to just-bad.


Go MAGIC!



..

[eyriq]

Agreed on "27". I would think 26-32 wins is the range the Magic will land at. And whilst that will have the Magic sniffing play-ins quite late to the season, it is very, very hard to see the Magic getting there.

That said: the Magic is currently only 2 1/2 games out of the play-ins. So maybe 32 wins get the Magic in.


..

I'm impressed you have not bumped up your projection yet!

[drsd]

Agreed on "27". I would think 26-32 wins is the range the Magic will land at. And whilst that will have the Magic sniffing play-ins quite late to the season, it is very, very hard to see the Magic getting there.

That said: the Magic is currently only 2 1/2 games out of the play-ins. So maybe 32 wins get the Magic in.


..

I'm impressed you have not bumped up your projection yet!

There will be bumps. We cannot live on the high of a 7-1 eight game stand.

My current prediction, 30 wins plus/minus 2 wins. I really, really struggle to see Orlando at less than 28 wins.


..

[AaronB]

Agreed on "27". I would think 26-32 wins is the range the Magic will land at. And whilst that will have the Magic sniffing play-ins quite late to the season, it is very, very hard to see the Magic getting there.

That said: the Magic is currently only 2 1/2 games out of the play-ins. So maybe 32 wins get the Magic in.


..

I'm impressed you have not bumped up your projection yet!

There will be bumps. We cannot live on the high of a 7-1 eight game stand.

My current prediction, 30 wins plus/minus 2 wins. I really, really struggle to see Orlando at less than 28 wins.


..

All the Magic have to do is play 500 ball for the rest of the season and they are at 36 wins.

They look like a 500 team to me, with the possibility of being better or worse based on health.

[eyriq]

I'm impressed you have not bumped up your projection yet!

There will be bumps. We cannot live on the high of a 7-1 eight game stand.

My current prediction, 30 wins plus/minus 2 wins. I really, really struggle to see Orlando at less than 28 wins.


..

All the Magic have to do is play 500 ball for the rest of the season and they are at 36 wins.

They look like a 500 team to me, with the possibility of being better or worse based on health.

Exactly. This really looks like a .500 team and that play-in looks very attainable. Pluck some talent from Toronto in a trade and the odds get even better.

[drsd]

There will be bumps. We cannot live on the high of a 7-1 eight game stand.

My current prediction, 30 wins plus/minus 2 wins. I really, really struggle to see Orlando at less than 28 wins.


..

All the Magic have to do is play 500 ball for the rest of the season and they are at 36 wins.

They look like a 500 team to me, with the possibility of being better or worse based on health.

Exactly. This really looks like a .500 team and that play-in looks very attainable. Pluck some talent from Toronto in a trade and the odds get even better.

You two are definitely predicting a play-in. And as the Magic is only 2 1/2 games out of the 10 seed, I hope you are both correct!


..

[JoshuaPotter]

It's still early to declare "play-in" imho. I wont stop the optimism.

Our starting five is still -8. I know I know, we got people coming back. There is still something with the lineup that needs figuring out. Or maybe our bench has just discovered the meaning of life, the fountain of youth, call pre-game mediation/chanting, or are eating a snickers bar with a cup of coffee prior to the game.