What's next?

[Knightro]

The question now is... what's next for the Orlando Magic?

Fully Guaranteed Contracts for 23-24
Wendell Carter Jr: $13,050,000
Paolo Banchero: $11,608,080
Jalen Suggs: $7,252,080
Franz Wagner: $5,508,720
Cole Anthony: $5,539,771
Chuma Okeke: $5,266,713
Caleb Houstan: $2,000,000
TOTAL: $50,225,364

Partial or Non-Guaranteed Contracts for 23-24
Jonathan Isaac: $17,400,000 ($7,600,000 guaranteed)
Markelle Fultz: $17,000,000 ($2,000,000 guaranteed)
Gary Harris: $13,000,000 ($0 guaranteed)
Bol Bol: $2,200,000 ($0 guaranteed)
TOTAL: $49,600,000 ($9,600,000 guaranteed)

Draft Picks
2023 Magic 1st: Currently 5th Slot - $7,000,000 estimation
2023 Bulls 1st: Currently 10th Slot - $4,500,00 estimation

Free Agents
Terrence Ross: UFA ($17,250,000 cap hold)
RJ Hampton: UFA ($4,220,057 max Magic can offer)
Moritz Wagner: UFA ($1,855,319 cap hold)
Admiral Schofield: RFA ($1,974,849 qualifying offer)
Kevon Harris: RFA ($1,761,752 qualifying offer)

The absolute maximum cap space the Magic could create this summer is: $58.675 million dollars

I came to that number with the following math: $134M salary cap limit - $50.225M in guaranteed contracts - $9.6M in partial guaranteed contracts - $11.5M in draft picks - $4M empty roster charges.

This would mean moving on from literally everyone they can move on from - Isaac, Fultz, Harris, Bol, M. Wagner.

If the Magic do retain Isaac, Fultz and Bol at their full guarantees (all likely IMO), three of those empty roster charges go away (+$3M), but their cap space drops to $34.675M.

If they retain Harris, they get that final empty roster charge back (+$1M), but their cap space drops to $22.675M.

If they hang on to Moritz's cap hold (they should do this until they can work out a new deal), their cap space drops to $20.825M.

TL:DR
-If the Magic want to chase a FA in the $20M range, they don't have to move on from anyone.

-If the Magic want to chase a FA in the $30-35M range, they'll have to move on from Gary Harris.

-If the Magic want to aggressively chase multiple FA in the $20M range, they'll have to move on from Gary Harris *and* one of Markelle Fultz/Jonathan Isaac.

-If the Magic want to aggressively chase multiple FAs in the $25-30M range, they'll have to move on from all three of Harris, Fultz and Isaac.

What do you think they should do?

[tiderulz]

im not sure moving on from Harris is really that "aggressive" a move. moving on from Fultz would be aggressive, but i dont think this FO will do that.

Personally, they need to move 1 of Fultz/Cole, IF they can find a replacement either FA (like FVV) or thru trade. Also need a bruiser defensive/rebounding big man. i would scour G-league. you arent looking for someone at 30 mpg every night, but in spot situations. Have to be some hungry guys there. plenty of big men that cant shoot the 3 ball but good otherwise that would fit the bill.

[JoshuaPotter]

My keepers
Jonathan Isaac: $17,400,000 ($7,600,000 guaranteed)
Bol Bol: $2,200,000 ($0 guaranteed)
Moritz Wagner: UFA ($1,855,319 cap hold)

My targets
FVV
Draft pick
Markelle Fultz: $17,000,000 ($2,000,000 guaranteed)

If Cole continues showing his consistency off the bench he may deserve that starting spot next year as an experiment next to Suggs. Otherwise I am 100% convinced that Cole should be kept and convinced he is a 6th man of the year candidate.

[basketballRob]

Just let Ross and RJ go. Draft two first round picks and run it back.

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[UCFJayBird]

I think it's unlikely the Magic go chasing anyone in FA and probably retain most. I expect this team to be largely unchanged amongst the Top 10-12 players (i.e. I think we'll retain Isaac, Fultz, Bol Bol, Gary Harris, and resign Moe).

The Magic have really turned it around as they've gotten healthy. Barring significant injury setbacks, Isaac getting up to full speed will be like a free agent signing on it's own, plus potentially two more rookies (though i think odds are good we trade at least one of those lottery picks), and we can sign some mid level vets to fill out the roster a bit better. Plus just natural progression of players improving (specifically Banchero, Franz, Suggs, and even Fultz).

It's important when looking at these salaries to remember the MLE these days is $10m. So it's not like the players on the block have terrible salaries.

I can't see the Magic parting with Isaac unless he has another injury. They've been way too patient and determined to get him back to let him go.

Fultz has been very effective and the team's record with him is significantly better so I expect them to roll with him barring injuries as well.

Maaaaaaybe the team lets Gary Harris go because it's $13m, but I doubt it because he's turned into a really good 3 & D player this season. Maybe they think he's making too much for the bench, but he's just a little over the MLE and I doubt the Magic would find someone better. But if they wanted a little boost to cap space to pursue someone he'd be the guy IMO.

[basketballRob]

Assuming we get guards in the draft, Harris could be flipped for front court depth. They could even just let him go and sign a player like Naz Reid.

We have one more season before we have to make bigger decisions.

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[VFX]

Don’t extend or move : Gary Harris, Markelle

Keep: Isaaac, M.Wagner (for the right price). Moritz can be moved if Orlando can get a better frontcourt player in return from any other moves.

Test the market for Bol and Okeke. Tbh I don’t see where minutes are coming from for Okeke now with Isaac’s return, Bol, and Houstan helping from outside.

Draft one of: Scoot, C.Wallace, N.Smith
Draft one of: Jett, George, Miller, Dick

Going into next season:

Cole|Suggs|Franz|Paolo|Carter
xxxx|xxxx|Houstan|Bol|Isaac

Decisions made based on both top 10 picks skill sets and positions.

edit: if Miller is drafted they should go after FVV, if they can’t land FVV, then keep Harris for vet presence.

[eyriq]

I feel like we are in prime position to pull off a consolidation trade and upgrade a starting spot.

Which said another way, we move on from Fultz & Harris and sign FVV.

We also need a power center off the bench.

I keep Bol, Moe, and Isaac.

I draft a guard and wing.

Starting backcourt of FVV|Suggs with the same front court and Cole led bench with Bol, Isaac, rook, Caleb, and Moe ftw

Edit: or sign GTJ. Either way I want Suggs in the backcourt, either starting at the 1 or 2.

[eyriq]

ChatGPT wishes to opine:

It's a tough situation for the Magic as they have a lot of young talent on their roster, but also need to consider the financial aspects of the team. Ultimately, it will come down to what their goals are for the upcoming season and beyond.

...

In my opinion, the Magic should prioritize their young talent and keep Isaac, Fultz, and Bol, but consider moving on from Harris if it makes financial sense for the team. It's a delicate balance, but making the right decisions now will set the team up for success in the long term.

[zaymon]

Salary cap max is 134 M
I would trade or unguaranteed Fultz contract. He is geting beat by Cole Anthony even as a playmaker.
I would retain or extend Gary Harris to similar deal.
I would propably trade our frp(if it lands around 5) and draft Gradey Dick, Howard, Murray or Hendricks with bulls pick or ours if it ends outside top 5.
I would target FVV. Ideally by trading Fultz (doubt Masai wants him).
I would sign Kevon Harris and propably Admiral Schofield to minimums. I would target g league/international/vetaran bruiser

13 players(current players on contracts minus Fultz)+ pick+ Kevon+ Admiral=thats around 96M. I would sign FVV for around 30M. That would leave us with 8 M for some veteran big man.

FVV/Anthony/Kevon
Harris/Suggs/Houstan
Wagner/Okeke/Dick (or maybe here admiral and Hendricks/Murray PF)
Banchero/Isaac/Admiral
WCJ/Wagner/veteran

[tiderulz]

I think it's unlikely the Magic go chasing anyone in FA and probably retain most. I expect this team to be largely unchanged amongst the Top 10-12 players (i.e. I think we'll retain Isaac, Fultz, Bol Bol, Gary Harris, and resign Moe).

The Magic have really turned it around as they've gotten healthy. Barring significant injury setbacks, Isaac getting up to full speed will be like a free agent signing on it's own, plus potentially two more rookies (though i think odds are good we trade at least one of those lottery picks), and we can sign some mid level vets to fill out the roster a bit better. Plus just natural progression of players improving (specifically Banchero, Franz, Suggs, and even Fultz).

It's important when looking at these salaries to remember the MLE these days is $10m. So it's not like the players on the block have terrible salaries.

I can't see the Magic parting with Isaac unless he has another injury. They've been way too patient and determined to get him back to let him go.

Fultz has been very effective and the team's record with him is significantly better so I expect them to roll with him barring injuries as well.

Maaaaaaybe the team lets Gary Harris go because it's $13m, but I doubt it because he's turned into a really good 3 & D player this season. Maybe they think he's making too much for the bench, but he's just a little over the MLE and I doubt the Magic would find someone better. But if they wanted a little boost to cap space to pursue someone he'd be the guy IMO.

because our front office is scared, or you think the team is good

[tiderulz]

Salary cap max is 134 M
I would trade or unguaranteed Fultz contract. He is geting beat by Cole Anthony even as a playmaker.
I would retain or extend Gary Harris to similar deal.
I would propably trade our frp(if it lands around 5) and draft Gradey Dick, Howard, Murray or Hendricks with bulls pick or ours if it ends outside top 5.
I would target FVV. Ideally by trading Fultz (doubt Masai wants him).
I would sign Kevon Harris and propably Admiral Schofield to minimums. I would target g league/international/vetaran bruiser

13 players(current players on contracts minus Fultz)+ pick+ Kevon+ Admiral=thats around 96M. I would sign FVV for around 30M. That would leave us with 8 M for some veteran big man.

FVV/Anthony/Kevon
Harris/Suggs/Houstan
Wagner/Okeke/Dick (or maybe here admiral and Hendricks/Murray PF)
Banchero/Isaac/Admiral
WCJ/Wagner/veteran

what would you be looking for in return for trading that #5ish pick?

and Harris has a team option for next year. he is here if we want him

[eyriq]

1. How good is the backcourt of Fultz|Harris?
2. What is their ceiling over the next 3 years? Their floor over the next 3 years?

My answer to number 1 is that they aren't very good, one of the worst backcourts in the league.
My answer to number 2 is that they are at their ceiling and that their floor is lower than acceptable due to injury history.

Easy decision to move on IMO

[UCFJayBird]

I think it's unlikely the Magic go chasing anyone in FA and probably retain most.

because our front office is scared, or you think the team is good

Because the team is good when healthy and motivated. We beat the best teams in the league but will drop games against mid or bad teams. Some of that is consistency, leadership, and coaching, some of it is just youth.

I'll also say I want to see how the team plays out the rest of the season. If we falter then yea the FO probably gets more aggressive in FA. But if we finish strong and make the play-in, it's probably a better idea to keep the core together and just round out the bench with some different vets and run it back next year.

I personally always find free agency to be underwhelming these days. Few big names move, and when they do they go to contenders or teams on the cusp of becoming contenders. I just don't see that being the case for the Magic this offseason, we need another year of solid development, growth, and winning to really attract any big names. I'd target next offseason as the time to make moves.

[JoshuaPotter]

I think it's unlikely the Magic go chasing anyone in FA and probably retain most.

because our front office is scared, or you think the team is good

Because the team is good when healthy and motivated. We beat the best teams in the league but will drop games against mid or bad teams. Some of that is consistency, leadership, and coaching, some of it is just youth.

I'll also say I want to see how the team plays out the rest of the season. If we falter then yea the FO probably gets more aggressive in FA. But if we finish strong and make the play-in, it's probably a better idea to keep the core together and just round out the bench with some different vets and run it back next year.

I personally always find free agency to be underwhelming these days. Few big names move, and when they do they go to contenders or teams on the cusp of becoming contenders. I just don't see that being the case for the Magic this offseason, we need another year of solid development, growth, and winning to really attract any big names. I'd target next offseason as the time to make moves.

How dare you assume we shouldn't go after Irving when he has shown no interest in coming here! Average fans will be rioting by dawn at this comment.

Seriously great post, level headed. What I wish I could write.

[VFX]

1. How good is the backcourt of Fultz|Harris?
2. What is their ceiling over the next 3 years? Their floor over the next 3 years?

My answer to number 1 is that they aren't very good, one of the worst backcourts in the league.
My answer to number 2 is that they are at their ceiling and that their floor is lower than acceptable due to injury history.

Easy decision to move on IMO

I agree with this.

Suggs and Cole have been able to hold their own in the last few games. I didn’t even notice Gary Harris not being on the court last night. Resigning Fultz would be a mistake.

[Last Guardian]

I think it's unlikely the Magic go chasing anyone in FA and probably retain most. I expect this team to be largely unchanged amongst the Top 10-12 players (i.e. I think we'll retain Isaac, Fultz, Bol Bol, Gary Harris, and resign Moe).

The Magic have really turned it around as they've gotten healthy. Barring significant injury setbacks, Isaac getting up to full speed will be like a free agent signing on it's own, plus potentially two more rookies (though i think odds are good we trade at least one of those lottery picks), and we can sign some mid level vets to fill out the roster a bit better. Plus just natural progression of players improving (specifically Banchero, Franz, Suggs, and even Fultz).

It's important when looking at these salaries to remember the MLE these days is $10m. So it's not like the players on the block have terrible salaries.

I can't see the Magic parting with Isaac unless he has another injury. They've been way too patient and determined to get him back to let him go.

Fultz has been very effective and the team's record with him is significantly better so I expect them to roll with him barring injuries as well.

Maaaaaaybe the team lets Gary Harris go because it's $13m, but I doubt it because he's turned into a really good 3 & D player this season. Maybe they think he's making too much for the bench, but he's just a little over the MLE and I doubt the Magic would find someone better. But if they wanted a little boost to cap space to pursue someone he'd be the guy IMO.

Perfect and well said. Run it back, they’ve massively improved this year. The upcoming rookie situation will be interesting. They are good picks to have but playing time might not be available.

[Knightro]

I had a tiny error in my numbers, original post is now updated.

But it's good news for the Magic. More cap space than I expected. I subtracted the partial guarantees twice.

[drsd]

I think it's unlikely the Magic go chasing anyone in FA and probably retain most. I expect this team to be largely unchanged amongst the Top 10-12 players (i.e. I think we'll retain Isaac, Fultz, Bol Bol, Gary Harris, and resign Moe).

The Magic have really turned it around as they've gotten healthy. Barring significant injury setbacks, Isaac getting up to full speed will be like a free agent signing on it's own, plus potentially two more rookies (though i think odds are good we trade at least one of those lottery picks), and we can sign some mid level vets to fill out the roster a bit better. Plus just natural progression of players improving (specifically Banchero, Franz, Suggs, and even Fultz).

It's important when looking at these salaries to remember the MLE these days is $10m. So it's not like the players on the block have terrible salaries.

I can't see the Magic parting with Isaac unless he has another injury. They've been way too patient and determined to get him back to let him go.

Fultz has been very effective and the team's record with him is significantly better so I expect them to roll with him barring injuries as well.

Maaaaaaybe the team lets Gary Harris go because it's $13m, but I doubt it because he's turned into a really good 3 & D player this season. Maybe they think he's making too much for the bench, but he's just a little over the MLE and I doubt the Magic would find someone better. But if they wanted a little boost to cap space to pursue someone he'd be the guy IMO.

Agreed on all points.

For me this is the opening night line-up for the Magic until one of the PGs is traded for a new SG.


Fultz/Anthony/some-dude
Suggs/rookie/some-dude
F-Wagner/Bol/Houstan
Banchero/Isaac/Okeke
Carter/M-Wagner/rookie-or-some-due


Dependent on the draftees, the Magic might make no moves at all.


..

[Knightro]

Running it back with the exact same group with the two first round picks taking Ross/Hampton's roster spots would be a mistake.

This is still a flawed roster and you only get so many opportunities to use cap space to make tangible upgrades until the money dries up via contract extensions.

They need to be aggressive in both of the next two summers.