RealGM

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 2:43 pm**

1. Paolo Banchero 66%
2. Franze Wagner 100%
3. Orl 2023 FRP 50%
4. Jonathan Isaac 36%

I've got a fun little experiment for all you RealGMs out there. We're gonna do a poll to determine which Orlando Magic player is gonna have the most projected value in 2025. But here's the twist: we're gonna do it in rounds, eliminating the top pick after each one until we've got a complete ranking. We'll replace Free Agent / Trade with itself a few times, and Orlando 2023 FRP with Chicago's 2023 FRP as they get selected.

Now, you might be asking, why are we doing this? Well, it's simple. We wanna get a sense of which players the community thinks have the most upside and potential moving forward. Are we talking about a future superstar in the making, or a reliable veteran who's gonna keep producing for years to come? This is the kind of stuff we live for as RealGMs.

Plus, by taking out the top dog after each round, we're gonna get a better sense of who's consistently being overlooked or underrated.

Knightro put together a great overview our current state.

Fully Guaranteed Contracts for 23-24
Wendell Carter Jr: $13,050,000
Paolo Banchero: $11,608,080
Jalen Suggs: $7,252,080
Franz Wagner: $5,508,720
Cole Anthony: $5,539,771
Chuma Okeke: $5,266,713
Caleb Houstan: $2,000,000
TOTAL: $50,225,364

Partial or Non-Guaranteed Contracts for 23-24
Jonathan Isaac: $17,400,000 ($7,600,000 guaranteed)
Markelle Fultz: $17,000,000 ($2,000,000 guaranteed)
Gary Harris: $13,000,000 ($0 guaranteed)
Bol Bol: $2,200,000 ($0 guaranteed)
TOTAL: $49,600,000 ($9,600,000 guaranteed)

Draft Picks
2023 Magic 1st: Currently 5th Slot - $7,000,000 estimation
2023 Bulls 1st: Currently 10th Slot - $4,500,00 estimation

Free Agents
Terrence Ross: UFA ($17,250,000 cap hold)
RJ Hampton: UFA ($4,220,057 max Magic can offer)
Moritz Wagner: UFA ($1,855,319 cap hold)
Admiral Schofield: RFA ($1,974,849 qualifying offer)
Kevon Harris: RFA ($1,761,752 qualifying offer)

The absolute maximum cap space the Magic could create this summer is: $58.675 million dollars

I came to that number with the following math: $134M salary cap limit - $50.225M in guaranteed contracts - $9.6M in partial guaranteed contracts - $11.5M in draft picks - $4M empty roster charges.

This would mean moving on from literally everyone they can move on from - Isaac, Fultz, Harris, Bol, M. Wagner.

If the Magic do retain Isaac, Fultz and Bol at their full guarantees (all likely IMO), three of those empty roster charges go away (+$3M), but their cap space drops to $34.675M.

If they retain Harris, they get that final empty roster charge back (+$1M), but their cap space drops to $22.675M.

If they hang on to Moritz's cap hold (they should do this until they can work out a new deal), their cap space drops to $20.825M.

TL:DR
-If the Magic want to chase a FA in the $20M range, they don't have to move on from anyone.

-If the Magic want to chase a FA in the $30-35M range, they'll have to move on from Gary Harris.

-If the Magic want to aggressively chase multiple FA in the $20M range, they'll have to move on from Gary Harris *and* one of Markelle Fultz/Jonathan Isaac.

-If the Magic want to aggressively chase multiple FAs in the $25-30M range, they'll have to move on from all three of Harris, Fultz and Isaac.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 3:01 pm**

It's Paolo. There is room for people who want to say Franz but we expect more of Paolo at the moment due to his pick status and hopeful trajectory. With exception to his obvious game flaws in efficiency. Of which I will this year continue to look the other way and just raise the bar next year.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 3:13 pm**

JoshuaPotter wrote:It's Paolo. There is room for people who want to say Franz but we expect more of Paolo at the moment due to his pick status and hopeful trajectory. With exception to his obvious game flaws in efficiency. Of which I will this year continue to look the other way and just raise the bar next year.

My anticipation is that it will be close between Paolo and Franz, and then a clear signal for #2, probably not quite a landslide though as some will consider our pick turning into Wemby or Scoot. Then #3 is where it gets really interesting and will put things in perspective. Do you pull off a consolidation trade and that's our #3? Is it our pick? Suggs? Isaac? WCJ?

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 3:17 pm**

It really depends on their future salary for several of them.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 3:23 pm**

eyriq wrote:
JoshuaPotter wrote:It's Paolo. There is room for people who want to say Franz but we expect more of Paolo at the moment due to his pick status and hopeful trajectory. With exception to his obvious game flaws in efficiency. Of which I will this year continue to look the other way and just raise the bar next year.
My anticipation is that it will be close between Paolo and Franz, and then a clear signal for #2, probably not quite a landslide though as some will consider our pick turning into Wemby or Scoot. Then #3 is where it gets really interesting and will put things in perspective. Do you pull off a consolidation trade and that's our #3? Is it our pick? Suggs? Isaac? WCJ?

I missed the part about 2025 based on current roster.

Still Paolo. Fortunately between Paolo + Franz is one could be a hit one could just have flaws but both are looking very very good today.

I am not necessarily for getting a Zach Lavine or FVV today. I would just as soon get a backup rebound big or spend all the salary cap space on rebounding lessons before spending it on a player that isn't worth it.

That being said once we get two more draft picks and their position solidified I would change my opinion drastically. If its for example two picks in the 10-15 range I think its time to call the Bulls and see if they want Mr Lavin for their pick + our pick + denver pick + Cole + G harris or whatever makes salary match as long as it isn't suggs.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 3:44 pm**

Talking about 2025,no doubt about our #23 First pick.

+20% chance (at today) to draft a generational player or at least a franchise player has more value than anything else.

After that i'd Say Wagner,very solid player Who Will have Always a useful role in any type of franchise,even contenders.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 3:53 pm**

It’s either Franz or Paolo.

Franz plays a more valuable position. Paolo is considered the better prospect.

This might change depending on where the 2023 pick lands.

The 2023 pick pre-lotto isn’t worth Paolo or Franz.

As a #1 pick it’s worth more than them, as a #2 it might be equal value to them.

#3-10 the value obviously fluctuates based on who is taken and how they perform.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 4:23 pm**

MagicMatic wrote:It’s either Franz or Paolo.

Franz plays a more valuable position. Paolo is considered the better prospect.

This might change depending on where the 2023 pick lands.

The 2023 pick pre-lotto isn’t worth Paolo or Franz.

As a #1 pick it’s worth more than them, as a #2 it might be equal value to them.

#3-10 the value obviously fluctuates based on who is taken and how they perform.

Great thoughts. Wemby odds are super valuable. I like Simmons take, Wemby odds are less valuable than Franz and Paolo but not by much. Pick 1 or 2 and you've got a highly probable star to build around. Outside of there it's interesting. Best college kid will still be available as will the Thompson twins. I'm expecting this pick to go #1 on the third iteration, but the free agent / trade option looms as do Isaac and Suggs. It's not easy and we are loaded in value.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 4:32 pm**

Right now Franz, obivously, he can fit in almost any team and you dont have to build around him.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 5:12 pm**

For me it is comedic that there are votes for 2023 FRP, over Fultz, Suggs, and Carter. The two FRPs do not have that much value. Historically these selections in the 7-12 range would expect to gain a rotational player leaning towards marginal starter.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 5:15 pm**

byeganyo wrote:Right now Franz, obivously, he can fit in almost any team and you dont have to build around him.

Offensively, F-Wagner's upside is Scottie Pippen and Banchreo's is Chris Webber. I am 100% on F-Wagner in that context. BUT: I voted Banchero. He has tools suggesting he can will wins over a season. I cannot see F-Wagner getting to that me-alone capacity that suppurates all-stars from super-stars.

(That is, whereas I think both have future All-star upsides, I only target Banchero for Top-10 NBA player status)

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 6:13 pm**

drsd wrote:For me it is comedic that there are votes for 2023 FRP, over Fultz, Suggs, and Carter. The two FRPs do not have that much value. Historically these selections in the 7-12 range would expect to gain a rotational player leaning towards marginal starter.

The picks do have considerable value, but they are only lotto tickets at this point.

IF the pick lands at #1 it has more value than anyone on the current roster.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 6:52 pm**

Franz and Paolo are two at the top. This years picks, in best possible case being #1 and #5 (say Wembanyama and some guard), are yet to prove they can be on the level of those two. Most likely they are not and at least one of them is a bust. Rest of the roster is irrelevant, role players that will be kept if they fit around Franz and Paolo or let go / traded otherwise for better fitting pieces.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 7:19 pm**

p0peye wrote:Franz and Paolo are two at the top. This years picks, in best possible case being #1 and #5 (say Wembanyama and some guard), are yet to prove they can be on the level of those two. Most likely they are not and at least one of them is a bust. Rest of the roster is irrelevant, role players that will be kept if they fit around Franz and Paolo or let go / traded otherwise for better fitting pieces.

Interesting that you think everyone not named Franz, Paolo, or 2023 FRP is irrelevant. There are interesting cases to make for Suggs developing into an All-NBA defensive player, WCJ developing into a bigger, less agile Lamar Odom, Isaac turning into All-NBA defensive player, Bol turning into SuperBol, some narrative for Fultz showing shades of Shai, or us consolidating into Simons or FVV or longshot Trae Young.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 8:23 pm**

eyriq wrote:
p0peye wrote:Franz and Paolo are two at the top. This years picks, in best possible case being #1 and #5 (say Wembanyama and some guard), are yet to prove they can be on the level of those two. Most likely they are not and at least one of them is a bust. Rest of the roster is irrelevant, role players that will be kept if they fit around Franz and Paolo or let go / traded otherwise for better fitting pieces.

Interesting that you think everyone not named Franz, Paolo, or 2023 FRP is irrelevant. There are interesting cases to make for Suggs developing into an All-NBA defensive player, WCJ developing into a bigger, less agile Lamar Odom, Isaac turning into All-NBA defensive player, Bol turning into SuperBol, some narrative for Fultz showing shades of Shai, or us consolidating into Simons or FVV or longshot Trae Young.

They are role players. As I said, we will keep the ones that fit and I expect some of them will stay. To rank them in some order as asset, probably WCJ maybe ahead of others due to current production, contract and availability demonstrated in Magic, followed by Suggs due to potential. Isaac still has to prove he can be asset due to injury-prone concerns.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2023 8:31 pm**

The answer is probably Paolo. But given the prize, the 10.5% odds of Victor Wembanyama is a close 2nd.

Posted: **Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:04 am**

Def Swami wrote:The answer is probably Paolo. But given the prize, the 10.5% odds of Victor Wembanyama is a close 2nd.

This team wants to win. We're probably picking between 10-16. CHI pick protected. 0% chance at Wemby or Scoot.

Posted: **Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:10 am**

Skin wrote:
Def Swami wrote:The answer is probably Paolo. But given the prize, the 10.5% odds of Victor Wembanyama is a close 2nd.

This team wants to win. We're probably picking between 10-16. CHI pick protected. 0% chance at Wemby or Scoot.

What teams do we pass?

Posted: **Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:13 am**

Skin wrote:
Def Swami wrote:The answer is probably Paolo. But given the prize, the 10.5% odds of Victor Wembanyama is a close 2nd.

This team wants to win. We're probably picking between 10-16. CHI pick protected. 0% chance at Wemby or Scoot.

There's 0% our pick ends up at 10 or higher, 16 is less than 0% :lol:

Posted: **Thu Feb 16, 2023 12:17 am**

2023 PICK (assuming we pick top 4), Franz, Paolo, 2023 Pick (assuming we pick 5-6), Suggs, Isaac, rest

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