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Paolo Banchero
WINS: .431 FG%, .345 3PT%, .756 FT%, .545 TS%, 27.6 USG%, 34.5 MPG, 20.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.2 APG
LOSS: .421 FG%, .234 3PT%, .729 FT%, .515 TS%, 27.9 USG%, 33.4 MPG, 19.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.2 APG

Franz Wagner
WINS: .504 FG%, .405 3PT%, .814 FT%, .615 TS%, 22.9 USG%, 32.5 MPG, 18.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.6 APG
LOSS: .478 FG%, .347 3PT%, .852 FT%, .579 TS%, 24.0 USG%, 33.1 MPG, 18.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.4 APG

Markelle Fultz
WINS: .488 FG%, .261 3PT%, .754 FT%, .536 TS%, 20.1 USG%, 30.4 MPG, 12.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.7 APG
LOSS: .530 FG%, .333 3PT%, .862 FT%, .590 TS%, 22.3 USG%, 29.6 MPG, 15.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.5 APG

Wendell Carter
WINS: .535 FG%, .341 3PT%, .750 FT%, .622 TS%, 22.3 USG%, 29.8 MPG, 16.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.4 APG
LOSS: .519 FG%, .347 3PT%, .731 FT%, .614 TS%, 20.7 USG%, 30.2 MPG, 15.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.5 APG

Cole Anthony
WINS: .520 FG%, .386 3PT%, .885 FT%, .627 TS%, 21.2 USG%, 25.5 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.5 APG
LOSS: .387 FG%, .327 3PT%, .886 FT%, .513 TS%, 21.5 USG%, 25.4 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.5 APG

Gary Harris
WINS .504 FG%, .475 3PT%, .818 FT%, .683 TS%, 12.1 USG%, 26.6 MPG, 9.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 BPG
LOSS .410 FG%, .388 3PT%, .941 FT%, .568 TS%, 13.3 USG%, 24.0 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG

Jalen Suggs
WINS: .420 FG%, .345 3PT%, .733 FT%, .528 FT%, 21.3 USG%, 23.0 MPG, 10.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.8 APG
LOSS: .416 FG%, .295 3PT%, .679 FT%, .514 FT%, 19.6 USG%, 24.2 MPG, 9.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.4 APG

Bol Bol
WINS: .588 FG%, .333 3PT%, .762 FT%, .653 TS%, 17.6 USG%, 20.0 USG, 8.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 0.8 APG
LOSS: .554 FG%, .274 3PT%, .759 FT%, .607 TS%, 17.9 USG%, 22.6 USG, 9.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.0 APG

Moritz Wagner
WINS: .500 FG%, .373 3PT%, .889 FT%, .642 TS%, 21.2 USG%, 21.1 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.3 APG
LOSS: .497 FG%, .265 3PT%, .798 FT%, .617 TS%, 20.9 USG%, 19.9 MPG, 10.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 APG

I see what you did there considering your stance on Magic's PG

It's pretty insane how much our chance of winning correlates with Cole's shooting percentage.

The huge difference comes from Cole/Harris, so I can imagine if we had a top SG we would be unstoppable

BTW, Paolo needs to improve his FG%.

One way to consider this is that players playing bad in losses are the reason for the Loss. In that, Fultz looks like the next coming of point-god in how he elevates his game in losses.

And G-Harris looks like there personal reason for losses to ever accumulate.

Observations:

1. Based on these splits you can see why the coaching staff has the rotations set the way they do.
2. Gary Harris' efficiency might be the X factor for our winning chances.
3. Fultz playing better in losses is interesting and brings to mind some potential hypothesis:
i. Fultz periodically takes on a more aggressive role to pad stats and it hurts the team (contract year)
ii. Defenses focus on containing Paolo & Franz, resulting in Fultz finding more open looks and scoring opportunities
iii. When we are losing we rely on Fult'z playmaking ability to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates (plan a is initially to ride rookie Paolo and Sophmore Franz, when they can't deliver we switch into win-now mode and ride our best offensive player in Fultz)

I think we need to think deeply about why Fultz plays better in losses combined with why Harris's efficiency is so high in wins.

eyriq wrote:Observations:

1. Based on these splits you can see why the coaching staff has the rotations set the way they do.
2. Gary Harris' efficiency might be the X factor for our winning chances.
3. Fultz playing better in losses is interesting and brings to mind some potential hypothesis:
i. Fultz periodically takes on a more aggressive role to pad stats and it hurts the team (contract year)
ii. Defenses focus on containing Paolo & Franz, resulting in Fultz finding more open looks and scoring opportunities
iii. When we are losing we rely on Fult'z playmaking ability to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates (plan a is initially to ride rookie Paolo and Sophmore Franz, when they can't deliver we switch into win-now mode and ride our best offensive player in Fultz)

I think we need to think deeply about why Fultz plays better in losses combined with why Harris's efficiency is so high in wins.

I have watched every game this year and it is the third option. A pet peeve of mine with Fultz, but he starts the games thinking team first, once our guys are struggling, especially Paolo, he then becomes more aggressive and has a good game. It is like he can have a good game at will but only becomes aggressive when Paolo and others are struggling. That seems to have changed recently but only time will tell.

Then again, maybe for the best, the next complaint on Fultz will be that he is taking shots away from Paolo which will likely happen with any good volume PG we acquire.

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BCS wrote:

eyriq wrote:Observations:

1. Based on these splits you can see why the coaching staff has the rotations set the way they do.
2. Gary Harris' efficiency might be the X factor for our winning chances.
3. Fultz playing better in losses is interesting and brings to mind some potential hypothesis:
i. Fultz periodically takes on a more aggressive role to pad stats and it hurts the team (contract year)
ii. Defenses focus on containing Paolo & Franz, resulting in Fultz finding more open looks and scoring opportunities
iii. When we are losing we rely on Fult'z playmaking ability to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates (plan a is initially to ride rookie Paolo and Sophmore Franz, when they can't deliver we switch into win-now mode and ride our best offensive player in Fultz)

I think we need to think deeply about why Fultz plays better in losses combined with why Harris's efficiency is so high in wins.

I have watched every game this year and it is the third option. A pet peeve of mine with Fultz, but he starts the games thinking team first, once our guys are struggling, especially Paolo, he then becomes more aggressive and has a good game. It is like he can have a good game at will but only becomes aggressive when Paolo and others are struggling. That seems to have changed recently but only time will tell.

Then again, maybe for the best, the next complaint on Fultz will be that he is taking shots away from Paolo which will likely happen with any good volume PG we acquire.

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Building on that narrative, Fultz is on board with the big picture and embraces our draft & player development strategy. He is willing to sacrifice for Paolo to get needed reps but stands ready to take over when it looks dire, mostly to show the team that he deserves to be one of our highest paid players. He's such a team guy that when he turns it on he doesn't ball too outrageous such that it hurts our draft stock (hence he plays well in losses but not well enough to turn it into a win).

...

No, I don't think it's option 3

eyriq wrote:Observations:

1. Based on these splits you can see why the coaching staff has the rotations set the way they do.
2. Gary Harris' efficiency might be the X factor for our winning chances.
3. Fultz playing better in losses is interesting and brings to mind some potential hypothesis:
i. Fultz periodically takes on a more aggressive role to pad stats and it hurts the team (contract year)
ii. Defenses focus on containing Paolo & Franz, resulting in Fultz finding more open looks and scoring opportunities
iii. When we are losing we rely on Fult'z playmaking ability to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates (plan a is initially to ride rookie Paolo and Sophmore Franz, when they can't deliver we switch into win-now mode and ride our best offensive player in Fultz)
I think we need to think deeply about why Fultz plays better in losses combined with why Harris's efficiency is so high in wins.

iii. all the way for me on fultz.
When things aren't going for Paolo....and Franz .... and the game is on the line... he steps it up a notch and pushes the team and that still ends in losses. For me... that's what i see when i'm watching the games. He is NOT a selfish individual. he gives them the spotlight till they can't shoulder it. He want's them to grow and be centerpieces... because that unlocks the potential of the team.

I do not think Fultz is a selfish player by any means.

I just think he's more comfortable trying to score than pass in the halfcourt.

In transition and semi transition he's a much more willing and better passer.

yoyojw17 wrote:

eyriq wrote:Observations:

1. Based on these splits you can see why the coaching staff has the rotations set the way they do.
2. Gary Harris' efficiency might be the X factor for our winning chances.
3. Fultz playing better in losses is interesting and brings to mind some potential hypothesis:
i. Fultz periodically takes on a more aggressive role to pad stats and it hurts the team (contract year)
ii. Defenses focus on containing Paolo & Franz, resulting in Fultz finding more open looks and scoring opportunities
iii. When we are losing we rely on Fult'z playmaking ability to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates (plan a is initially to ride rookie Paolo and Sophmore Franz, when they can't deliver we switch into win-now mode and ride our best offensive player in Fultz)
I think we need to think deeply about why Fultz plays better in losses combined with why Harris's efficiency is so high in wins.

iii. all the way for me on fultz.
When things aren't going for Paolo....and Franz .... and the game is on the line... he steps it up a notch and pushes the team and that still ends in losses. For me... that's what i see when i'm watching the games. He is NOT a selfish individual. he gives them the spotlight till they can't shoulder it. He want's them to grow and be centerpieces... because that unlocks the potential of the team.

Good sense for a solid PG...but, like you said, he doesn't have the firepower to pull it out if they don't. We need a triple threat to not only enhance their games with is awareness and gravity, but a guy who can take over when needed and carry the team to wins.

eyriq wrote:Building on that narrative, Fultz is on board with the big picture and embraces our draft & player development strategy. He is willing to sacrifice for Paolo to get needed reps but stands ready to take over when it looks dire, mostly to show the team that he deserves to be one of our highest paid players. He's such a team guy that when he turns it on he doesn't ball too outrageous such that it hurts our draft stock (hence he plays well in losses but not well enough to turn it into a win).

Banchero's shooting numbers are indeed poor. As they are expected to be. Actually, his TSS% numbers would be horrible if he didn't get to the line so much.

One must credit coach (and Fultz rolling orders) as once Banchero becomes efficient, this is a differnt team than we could have imagined.

As an aside: I am very struck by F-Wagner's three ball percentage lines in wins vs. in losses.

And how in the heck does G-Harris become mister automative from the free-bee line in losses. That must be only statistical noise. It is too random otherwise.
..

Knightro wrote:Magic Stats In Wins v. In Losses

Thank you for this. It is super informative!


..

Cole's splits are remarkable. A bench guy that wins and loses games depending on how hot or cold he is.

Ultimately we need more efficient shooting. I think Gary Harris is a mirage. he's scoring 8 points a game. Next year, if he can double his shots and keep the efficiency great, but I don't think the shots are there.

jonbob17 wrote:Cole's splits are remarkable. A bench guy that wins and loses games depending on how hot or cold he is.

This is something...I think Cole can be a very valuable rotation piece and we'll be a LOT better if we don't need our 7th man to be so influential in our wins. In other words, our starting lineup needs to be a LOT better offensively.

As far as Harris, I can take him or leave him. He's only starting because noone else can hit an open 3 and our PG won't even try. If we upgrade our starting guards - at both spots, Gary probably gets the same output in 15mins of PT off the bench -instead of 25. I'm hoping they don't re-up him only because that would signal an imminent FA signing rather than the usual "roll it back and develop un-developable players" BS we've come to expect. WeHam sitting on his hands this summer would be a clear indication that avoiding a blunder is their highest priority - way above building a winner in this decade.

I brought this several weeks ago in Fultz's future discussion thread (one of many), people were wrongly attributing our success to his performance when in fact it was Cole.

MoMM wrote:
BTW, Paolo needs to improve his FG%.

Yeah, his 3pt % is a big part of that. Not all of it mind you. He's like 47.3% from 2 which is fine for a guard, but a bit low for a big wing. But Lebron shot 41.7 (overall) and 43.8 (2pt) his rookie year and it wasn't the end of the world. Kobe shot 41.7 and 43.7 his rookie year (nearly identical to Lebron). Granted both those guys were a year younger, but Kobe was still below Paolo in his second year (45.6 from 2), but he did make progress. Lebron jumped up a lot more to 49.9 from 2.

Note I'm not saying Paolo is either of those guys, just that FG% tends to trend upward as one gets acclimated to the league, develops the stamina for a 82-game season, develops counters to defenses they commonly see, gets more comfortable with a longer 3 pt line and so forth. If his fg% is the same or lower next year, that would be cause for some concern, but for now, it's fine given it's hard to do much work on his game midseason.

Point?

OrlDave wrote:

MoMM wrote:
BTW, Paolo needs to improve his FG%.

Yeah, his 3pt % is a big part of that. Not all of it mind you. He's like 47.3% from 2 which is fine for a guard, but a bit low for a big wing. But Lebron shot 41.7 (overall) and 43.8 (2pt) his rookie year and it wasn't the end of the world. Kobe shot 41.7 and 43.7 his rookie year (nearly identical to Lebron). Granted both those guys were a year younger, but Kobe was still below Paolo in his second year (45.6 from 2), but he did make progress. Lebron jumped up a lot more to 49.9 from 2.

Note I'm not saying Paolo is either of those guys, just that FG% tends to trend upward as one gets acclimated to the league, develops the stamina for a 82-game season, develops counters to defenses they commonly see, gets more comfortable with a longer 3 pt line and so forth. If his fg% is the same or lower next year, that would be cause for some concern, but for now, it's fine given it's hard to do much work on his game midseason.

And-1

To add: Last year F-Wagner was on .468/.354 and has increased both to .487/.361. And as his efficiency in increasing, he is also taking more shots.

Higher usage with Carter and Suggs you get wins.
Higher usage with Fultz and Harris you get losses.