Pelton's Top 30 Stat based projections

[jonbob17]

Kevin Pelton's Top 30 based on projected WAR. Seemed like prior to last year this was a great leading indicator of who the Magic would select.

Player WARP
1 Wembanyama 3.7
2 Miller 3.6
3 Whitmore 3.2
4 Wallace 2.8
5 Gradey 2.6
6 Hendricks 2.6
7 George 2.6
8 Sensabaugh 2.4
9 Lively 2.3
10 Scoot 2.3
11 Jerace Walker 2.3
12 Filipowski 2.3
13 Nick Smith 2.3
14 Podziemski 2.2
15 Whitehead 2.2
16 Black 2.2
17 Howard 2.1
18 Clingan 2.1
19 Edey 2.1
20 Richard 1.9
21 Scheirman 1.9
22 Arceneaux 1.8
23 Clowney 1.7
24 Leonard Miller 1.7
25 Colby Jones 1.6
26 Hawkins 1.5
27 Jordan James 1.5
28 Ware 1.4
29 Sasser 1.3
30 Terquavion 1.3

Scoot at 10. This coupled with a draft twitter guy calling Scoot a smaller version of Markelle Fultz has me worried. Miller has really risen to number 2 on a lot of draft boards. Doesn't currently have Thompson's modeled

I want Wallace and Gradey or one of those and Hendricks. Unless we pick top 3 and then i am starting to lean Miller over Scoot.

Link to past projections....not always great...but lots of Magic guys relatively high
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16235135/explaining-kevin-pelton-nba-draft-projection-system
Cole and RJ very high in 2020

[eyriq]

I love Keyonte being so high, not going to lie.

That said, Pelton voted for Walker Kessler for ROY. So...

But really stats are stats and this is a great data point.

Take Keyonte

[basketballRob]

After seeing this, I'm going with Wembanyama #1.

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[RookieStar]

I love Keyonte being so high, not going to lie.

That said, Pelton voted for Walker Kessler for ROY. So...

But really stats are stats and this is a great data point.

Take Keyonte

I too would like to be vindicated on George.. just worried why he is hiding his measurements..

[msmoore66]

That said, Pelton voted for Walker Kessler for ROY. So...

Pelton schmelton

[Bensational]

Wow, Whitmore ranking high. Someone sell me on him, I’m not sure what I’m not seeing.

[jonbob17]

Wow, Whitmore ranking high. Someone sell me on him, I’m not sure what I’m not seeing.

To be clear I don't like Whitmore that much, have him closer to 10, but he's big, thick, and athletic. Shot 34.3% on 6 3pt attempts a game, and shot 58% from 2, and can rebound.

Pelton is kind of showing what the floor is for these guys over their first 4 years, which is why i kind of think the Magic's model is probably somewhat similar. Whitmore seems like a pretty safe bet as a rotation player, even if I think his ceiling as like a Miles Bridges type is very much in question. He should be able to be like a not-as-good version of Aaron Gordon, which doesn't sound like much, but still has a good bit of value in this league, if for no other reason than the versatility of the position.

[jonbob17]

I love Keyonte being so high, not going to lie.

That said, Pelton voted for Walker Kessler for ROY. So...

But really stats are stats and this is a great data point.

Take Keyonte

I too would like to be vindicated on George.. just worried why he is hiding his measurements..

I am more worried he's hiding his lack of athleticism in some of the silly drills they do.

Does seem weird when some people have George mid lottery, and like Hollinger board someone posted the other day didn't have him in the top 20. You think you would want lock in that money with a good showing.

Last year rookie scale salary for pick 5 was about $28M for four years. Where pick 20 was $10M. That's a lot of cheese you will never get back, and for countless first rounders their rookie scale is their only big contract.

Or maybe he already knows where he will be picked, or at least his agent has sold him on that idea.

[JoshuaPotter]

After seeing this, I'm going with Wembanyama #1.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

You sir may have your seat, but truly you live on the edge....

[Residual-Heat]

He had Paolo 10th in 2022...

[Audi]

Kevin Pelton's Top 30 based on projected WAR. Seemed like prior to last year this was a great leading indicator of who the Magic would select.

Player WARP
1 Wembanyama 3.7
2 Miller 3.6
3 Whitmore 3.2
4 Wallace 2.8
5 Gradey 2.6
6 Hendricks 2.6
7 George 2.6
8 Sensabaugh 2.4
9 Lively 2.3
10 Scoot 2.3
11 Jerace Walker 2.3
12 Filipowski 2.3
13 Nick Smith 2.3
14 Podziemski 2.2
15 Whitehead 2.2
16 Black 2.2
17 Howard 2.1
18 Clingan 2.1
19 Edey 2.1
20 Richard 1.9
21 Scheirman 1.9
22 Arceneaux 1.8
23 Clowney 1.7
24 Leonard Miller 1.7
25 Colby Jones 1.6
26 Hawkins 1.5
27 Jordan James 1.5
28 Ware 1.4
29 Sasser 1.3
30 Terquavion 1.3

Scoot at 10. This coupled with a draft twitter guy calling Scoot a smaller version of Markelle Fultz has me worried. Miller has really risen to number 2 on a lot of draft boards. Doesn't currently have Thompson's modeled

I want Wallace and Gradey or one of those and Hendricks. Unless we pick top 3 and then i am starting to lean Miller over Scoot.

Link to past projections....not always great...but lots of Magic guys relatively high
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16235135/explaining-kevin-pelton-nba-draft-projection-system
Cole and RJ very high in 2020

Am I seeing this right or are the Thompson twins not on the list at all?

[basketballRob]

Wallace number 4. Out of the group that will be drafted 6-10, I have him as the best.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[RookieStar]

I love Keyonte being so high, not going to lie.

That said, Pelton voted for Walker Kessler for ROY. So...

But really stats are stats and this is a great data point.

Take Keyonte

I too would like to be vindicated on George.. just worried why he is hiding his measurements..

I am more worried he's hiding his lack of athleticism in some of the silly drills they do.

Does seem weird when some people have George mid lottery, and like Hollinger board someone posted the other day didn't have him in the top 20. You think you would want lock in that money with a good showing.

Last year rookie scale salary for pick 5 was about $28M for four years. Where pick 20 was $10M. That's a lot of cheese you will never get back, and for countless first rounders their rookie scale is their only big contract.

Or maybe he already knows where he will be picked, or at least his agent has sold him on that idea.

You can see his athleticism based on the games he played. For me, Baylor did him a disservice basically playing him as the SF because they had 2 undersized chucking guards in their backcourt to play with him.

[Black and Blue]

Kevin Pelton's Top 30 based on projected WAR. Seemed like prior to last year this was a great leading indicator of who the Magic would select.

Player WARP
1 Wembanyama 3.7
2 Miller 3.6
3 Whitmore 3.2
4 Wallace 2.8
5 Gradey 2.6
6 Hendricks 2.6
7 George 2.6
8 Sensabaugh 2.4
9 Lively 2.3
10 Scoot 2.3
11 Jerace Walker 2.3
12 Filipowski 2.3
13 Nick Smith 2.3
14 Podziemski 2.2
15 Whitehead 2.2
16 Black 2.2
17 Howard 2.1
18 Clingan 2.1
19 Edey 2.1
20 Richard 1.9
21 Scheirman 1.9
22 Arceneaux 1.8
23 Clowney 1.7
24 Leonard Miller 1.7
25 Colby Jones 1.6
26 Hawkins 1.5
27 Jordan James 1.5
28 Ware 1.4
29 Sasser 1.3
30 Terquavion 1.3

Scoot at 10. This coupled with a draft twitter guy calling Scoot a smaller version of Markelle Fultz has me worried. Miller has really risen to number 2 on a lot of draft boards. Doesn't currently have Thompson's modeled

I want Wallace and Gradey or one of those and Hendricks. Unless we pick top 3 and then i am starting to lean Miller over Scoot.

Link to past projections....not always great...but lots of Magic guys relatively high
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16235135/explaining-kevin-pelton-nba-draft-projection-system
Cole and RJ very high in 2020

Am I seeing this right or are the Thompson twins not on the list at all?

“Doesn't currently have Thompson's modeled”

[jonbob17]

“Doesn't currently have Thompson's modeled”

Which probably means something along the lines of I don't know how to predict their professional stats off a 13th or 14th year in primary school. Birthday January 30th, 2003, should have been class of 2021.