The case for Jordan Hawkins
Posted: Fri May 19, 2023 8:30 pm
The 2023 lottery is over and now is the time for wishing and hoping who the next piece of the puzzle will be to join the Orlando Magic!
I can't believe it has now been 10 years since I've been making these declaration threads!
This year, my choice is Jordan Hawkins! I can see the favortism with Ausar Thompson who has a commanding lead in our poll for the pick at #6, but I want to make a case to pass on Ausar at #6 in favor of Hawkins later.
The Thompson vs Hawkins debate is eerily similar to Dwight Howard vs Emeka Okafor debates of long ago! The elite HS prospect vs established college player who also happens to be the NCAA Tournament MVP for the National Championship UCONN Huskies! It will take an incredible gut check for the Magic to bypass Ausar Thompson at 6 with the chance that he turns into a superstar Guard which his athleticism and size profile seems to point towards. However, there are reasons for doing it!... and I was a Dwight over Okafor guy, so this feels weird!
I'm gonna give SIZE, ATHLETICISM, & DEFENSE to Ausar. These are reasons why he is a tantalizing player. But so many questions arise on the offensive side of the ball. How long will he take to develop his shooting? Is his game translatable? Can we judge him based off his level of competition, to which he was a 20 year old playing against teens? Is he more than a playground player? Can he play within a structure? Does he fit the Magic's needs? This all could take years... IF it even happens.
So I'm all in on Jordan Hawkins at 11...maybe even 6 or a trade down. Here's why.
BASKETBALL SKILL; NOT RAW TALENT
We always say it.... some players get hyped because of talent that isn't refined. Mo Bamba, Jalen Suggs, Hawkins is already a refined offensive talent equip with a rare quick trigger. He has a lightning quick set up and release. He doesn't need much space or time to get his shot off. What would seem like a low percentage shot for most, is normal for him. Following the footsteps of former Huskies, Ray Allen, Rip Hamilton... here is Jordan Hawkins!
His ability to take a quick shot, or come off screens, and movement without the ball is TIRING for defenders. He will give them fits all night.
Jordan Hawkins is the best movement shooter in the 2023 draft class. Defenders tend to dislike chasing their man around screens and 24% of his shot diet came from screens (pin downs, floppy, flare). What would be even more pleasing to NBA teams is the fact that he shot 42% from three in screen actions.
When simply spotting up for a no dribble jumper, Hawkins shot 48% from three. Volume also is not an issue in his game, about 8 of his 12 shots per game would come from the 3pt line his sophomore season and he would shoot an overall 38%.
Half-court or transition, he is a C&S threat, and this will likely be his immediate role wherever he lands in the draft. He currently projects as a pure 2 guard, a 3 in small lineups. He is a solid on ball scorer and attacks the rim efficiently (52.6% at rim), but his off-ball gravity is way too impactful to not be his main skillset.
Those quick feet of his also makes him a pesky defender. He plays with the right IQ, is able to stay in front of his guy, not out of control, knows what to do. He does not gamble often on defense but his lateral quickness, great screen navigation, and on-ball defensive discipline suggests that one day he could become a 2 way player in the league.
BBIQ
Great watch! THIS IS WHY WE NEED HIM.
AGE
Ausar is a 20 year old playing HS aged competition and is only 9 months younger than Hawkins who already has 2 years of high level college competition under his belt. This factor negates the whole idea that Ausar's upside based on age lies in his favor.
FIT
Can the fanbase continue to take another prospect who has to grow into a shooter? Once or twice can be an exception, but it cannot be the norm if we want the Magic to take a step forward.
Hammond said, "A year ago at this time we were coming off a 22-win season. And we wanted to really improve on that and get better. We didn't know how much better we could be. We made the Paolo pick at 1 and when people asked how good we could be, I said was hoping for a 10 game swing. I probably said this 25 times, if we could go from 22 to 32, that would be a good year. We had 12. We got to 34. What do we take away from that? We got better. But now we have to do it again. We have to get even better next year."
This will require rookies who can contribute sooner rather than later. Hawkins is our guy.
"Hawkins led all projected prospects in 3-pointers made while hitting 39% of his attempts on UConn's path to a national championship. He is more than a stand-still shooter, showing significant versatility on the move while getting to the free throw line at a strong rate and making strides with his passing and defense." - ESPN (Jonathan Givony)
It will take years for Ausar to become the shooter that Hawkins is today... if he ever does. Hawkins drills shots with guys in his face. He has an incredibly quick releae and an ability to get himself open with his quick feet and motor that never seems to quit. He made big shots time and time again under the big lights during the tournament. Shots with little daylight in front of him. This is not a "one time" game winner highlight guy like Jalen Suggs was. We were fooled into thinking Suggs was a shooter, but we should've been honest with ourselves instead of being overjoyed because we didn't expect him to reach us. Hawkins will help us on Day 1.
SG is really the biggest sore spot on the team right now. Gary Harris is possibly the least impactful 3PT specialist in the league. Jalen Suggs, if not in crutches or a walking boot, is still trying to figure out if the team wants him as a PG or SG. Cole Anthony has done his best FVV impression lately, but is severely undersized for the position when called upon, and he's still inconsistent.