Hacking how WeltHam choose players for the Magic

[jezzerinho]

Something occurred to me recently and so I went to take a closer look at WeltHam's choice of players, drafted and signed, since 2020.

With the selection of Cole Anthony in the 2020 draft and the subsequent blow-up of the roster, a key trait seems to exist with practically everyone signed. Gone is the longboi obsession (as a principal driver for recruitment) and in its place since then is a pretty universal requirement:

That the player has a prior professional basketball background.

In other words, that they played in a pro/adult league pre-draft AND/OR
that they come from a professional basketball family.

Cole: Dad was a pro
Hampton: played pro in NBL
Bol: Dad was a pro
Carter Jr: Dad was a pro
Suggs: various family members in basketball and pro sport
Mo Wagner: played pro in Europe
Franz Wagner: played pro in Europe
Goga Bitadze: played pro in Europe
Banchero: Mum is a pro coach

Im not including bottom of the roster guys here (tho they may also fit, idk) or seasoned vets like Harris who already come with plenty of NBA experience and work ethic.

But there's a pattern here for sure. They're on the record as looking for players who "play the right way" and who are self-motivated hard workers, obsessed with basketball (post-Bamba trauma?). So the criteria make sense.

How common is it that an NBA roster is so full of guys with heavy predraft pro links? I don't know to be honest. Someone else can do that work!

But looking at the upcoming draft, what's striking is how few candidates there are in the 6-11 range that fulfill the criteria, so I doubt its a universal trait that most draftees have.

Likely to go above the Magic's picks:

Wembanyama:- plays pro in French league
Scoot:- plays pro in G League
Amen Thompson:- you can take 2 views on whether the twins qualify. On one hand they've been coached basketball by their dad since they were v small, homeschooled so they could train every day. They also chose the OTE (according to them) so they could acquire pro training and game prep habits.
But strictly they dont meet the criteria everyone else seems to on the Magic roster.

In our range:
Ausar Thompson :- see above
Jett Howard:- son of a pro player, also coached by him at Mich
Bilal Coulibaly:- playing pro in French league
Leonard Miller:- played pro in G-League


Below our range:
Rayan Rupert:- played pro in NBL
James Nnaji:- plays pro in Spanish league
Sidy Cissoko:- played pro in G-League

Thats it.
Slim pickings then, as far as WeltHam religiously sticking to the script.

Sure, there are some kids from rabid sports families with relatives in pro football or athletics like Whitehead & Hood-Schifino. But thats probably common in many draftees families.

Dereck Lively II's mum was a legendary college player in Penn St. and is now working in Penn St. athletics dept. Gradey Dick's mum was another college legend. But they have no pro basketball links either.

So, will WeltHam:

A) pick from this small pool?
B) use the lack of options as further justification for trading the picks for a vet?
C) move away from a trend that seems to have served them well?

[tiderulz]

ehh, i think its just that NBA prospects generally have some tie to basketball. i dont see that as a requirement that Weltham look for.

[jezzerinho]

ehh, i think its just that NBA prospects generally have some tie to basketball. i dont see that as a requirement that Weltham look for.

As I've tried to explain in detail, that isn't seemingly the case. Not in this draft, not in the players WeltHam drafted/signed in their esrly years (Isaac, Bamba, Okeke, Fultz).

I guess i could pick a random NBA team and look to see if all their major roster players either played pro bball pre-draft or their parents were pro players/coaches, but I think i already know the outcome.

All of a sudden on the Magic, everyone of note fits that profile. I doubt its coincidence and therefore it seems like a factor theyd be looking for this off-season also, right?

PS just checked the Nuggets, as theyre in the finals, their star player fits the profile and they have a reputation for good recruitment. They wouldnt vaguely qualify. I'm positive that its not at all common.

[eyriq]

I love the thought process behind this! Great job. Trade up for Scoot confirmed, or Ausar/Leonard Miller confirmed.

[fendilim]

I do believe in WARP as a basis and basketball pedigree from highschool. It dates back to their early years pick with Isaac, Bamba, Okeke and Cole.

Probably the only player not based on WARP is Banchero.

And reclamation projects or acquisitions via trade/signing like MCW, Briscoe, Birch, Fultz. Ranked high prior but struggled in or to make it in the NBA.

[jezzerinho]

I do believe in WARP as a basis and basketball pedigree from highschool. It dates back to their early years pick with Isaac, Bamba, Okeke and Cole.

Probably the only player not based on WARP is Banchero.

And reclamation projects or acquisitions via trade/signing like MCW, Briscoe, Birch, Fultz. Ranked high prior but struggled in or to make it in the NBA.

Their old process seemed to be very WARP/BPM heavy, plus HS pedigree, plus length.

Now it's pro-preparedness (plus the other factors, for sure).

[tiderulz]

ehh, i think its just that NBA prospects generally have some tie to basketball. i dont see that as a requirement that Weltham look for.

As I've tried to explain in detail, that isn't seemingly the case. Not in this draft, not in the players WeltHam drafted/signed in their esrly years (Isaac, Bamba, Okeke, Fultz).

I guess i could pick a random NBA team and look to see if all their major roster players either played pro bball pre-draft or their parents were pro players/coaches, but I think i already know the outcome.

All of a sudden on the Magic, everyone of note fits that profile. I doubt its coincidence and therefore it seems like a factor theyd be looking for this off-season also, right?

PS just checked the Nuggets, as theyre in the finals, their star player fits the profile and they have a reputation for good recruitment. They wouldnt vaguely qualify. I'm positive that its not at all common.

i still say its genetics more than anything, but a mixture of both.

Atlanta-

Saddiq Bey - Mother played college ball
Bogdan - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
Clint Capela - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
AJ Griffin - father played in NBA
DeAndre Hunter - father was HS star, died young
Trae Young - dad played college and Europe.
Jalen Johnson - both parents played college ball
Aaron Holiday - all siblings played basketball at college and higher. Justin and Jrue in NBA
Trent Forest - both parents played college ball
Donovan Williams - sister in WNBA.

[jezzerinho]

ehh, i think its just that NBA prospects generally have some tie to basketball. i dont see that as a requirement that Weltham look for.

As I've tried to explain in detail, that isn't seemingly the case. Not in this draft, not in the players WeltHam drafted/signed in their esrly years (Isaac, Bamba, Okeke, Fultz).

I guess i could pick a random NBA team and look to see if all their major roster players either played pro bball pre-draft or their parents were pro players/coaches, but I think i already know the outcome.

All of a sudden on the Magic, everyone of note fits that profile. I doubt its coincidence and therefore it seems like a factor theyd be looking for this off-season also, right?

PS just checked the Nuggets, as theyre in the finals, their star player fits the profile and they have a reputation for good recruitment. They wouldnt vaguely qualify. I'm positive that its not at all common.

i still say its genetics more than anything, but a mixture of both.

Atlanta-

Saddiq Bey - Mother played college ball
Bogdan - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
Clint Capela - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
AJ Griffin - father played in NBA
DeAndre Hunter - father was HS star, died young
Trae Young - dad played college and Europe.
Jalen Johnson - both parents played college ball
Aaron Holiday - all siblings played basketball at college and higher. Justin and Jrue in NBA
Trent Forest - both parents played college ball
Donovan Williams - sister in WNBA.

College ball doesnt count. Siblings dont count.

You played pro ball or your parents played/coached pro ball. Thats what all the recent young Magic players have in common.

Maybe its a massive coincidence, as you believe. I doubt it tho.

[Furinkazan]

Is that anything? Let's go to the truck.

[tiderulz]

As I've tried to explain in detail, that isn't seemingly the case. Not in this draft, not in the players WeltHam drafted/signed in their esrly years (Isaac, Bamba, Okeke, Fultz).

I guess i could pick a random NBA team and look to see if all their major roster players either played pro bball pre-draft or their parents were pro players/coaches, but I think i already know the outcome.

All of a sudden on the Magic, everyone of note fits that profile. I doubt its coincidence and therefore it seems like a factor theyd be looking for this off-season also, right?

PS just checked the Nuggets, as theyre in the finals, their star player fits the profile and they have a reputation for good recruitment. They wouldnt vaguely qualify. I'm positive that its not at all common.

i still say its genetics more than anything, but a mixture of both.

Atlanta-

Saddiq Bey - Mother played college ball
Bogdan - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
Clint Capela - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
AJ Griffin - father played in NBA
DeAndre Hunter - father was HS star, died young
Trae Young - dad played college and Europe.
Jalen Johnson - both parents played college ball
Aaron Holiday - all siblings played basketball at college and higher. Justin and Jrue in NBA
Trent Forest - both parents played college ball
Donovan Williams - sister in WNBA.

College ball doesnt count. Siblings dont count.

You played pro ball or your parents played/coached pro ball. Thats what all the recent young Magic players have in common.

Maybe its a massive coincidence, as you believe. I doubt it tho.

so siblings dont count. Jalen Suggs dad & mom didnt play/coach professional ball. yet your item about him "various family members in basketball and pro sport". so thats a stretch.
Banchero's mother is not a pro coach, she coaches high school and Holy Names Academy.

[tiderulz]

i still say its genetics more than anything, but a mixture of both.

Atlanta-

Saddiq Bey - Mother played college ball
Bogdan - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
Clint Capela - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
AJ Griffin - father played in NBA
DeAndre Hunter - father was HS star, died young
Trae Young - dad played college and Europe.
Jalen Johnson - both parents played college ball
Aaron Holiday - all siblings played basketball at college and higher. Justin and Jrue in NBA
Trent Forest - both parents played college ball
Donovan Williams - sister in WNBA.

College ball doesnt count. Siblings dont count.

You played pro ball or your parents played/coached pro ball. Thats what all the recent young Magic players have in common.

Maybe its a massive coincidence, as you believe. I doubt it tho.

so siblings dont count. Jalen Suggs dad & mom didnt play/coach professional ball. yet your item about him "various family members in basketball and pro sport". so thats a stretch.
Banchero's mother is not a pro coach, she coaches high school and Holy Names Academy.

im not trying to denigrate you. i just think its more coincidence.

[jezzerinho]

Is that anything? Let's go to the truck.

[Audi]

I bet some people thought they figured this hack out last year and then lost a lot of money.

[jezzerinho]

i still say its genetics more than anything, but a mixture of both.

Atlanta-

Saddiq Bey - Mother played college ball
Bogdan - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
Clint Capela - played pro ball in Europe prior to NBA
AJ Griffin - father played in NBA
DeAndre Hunter - father was HS star, died young
Trae Young - dad played college and Europe.
Jalen Johnson - both parents played college ball
Aaron Holiday - all siblings played basketball at college and higher. Justin and Jrue in NBA
Trent Forest - both parents played college ball
Donovan Williams - sister in WNBA.

College ball doesnt count. Siblings dont count.

You played pro ball or your parents played/coached pro ball. Thats what all the recent young Magic players have in common.

Maybe its a massive coincidence, as you believe. I doubt it tho.

so siblings dont count. Jalen Suggs dad & mom didnt play/coach professional ball. yet your item about him "various family members in basketball and pro sport". so thats a stretch.
Banchero's mother is not a pro coach, she coaches high school and Holy Names Academy.

Ok, i was sure she was a pro coach or ex-pro. My bad.

[drsd]

Gradey Dick's mother was a starter Center of Iowa St. An NCAA member of the 1,000 point club (1,097), she was named the Iowa State Female Athlete of the Year in 1989.

Dad: only a Div2 player in Football and baseball at Fort Hays State University. If anyone here ever heard of that school you earned yourself a cookie.

Anyhow: another example of B-ball pedigree.

[bigdogdylan5]

So I think your kinda on to something but maybe too specific instead of looking at the traits that pedigree means. They have told us what the formula is and they want a mature person. They continually bet on the mindset because who is going to bust their ass the most to get better. Which makes it hard to predict because I think the interview and the background of coaching and their history are very important. This is related as players who have played professionally overseas had to grow up faster and parents with coaching or playing backgrounds instill a work ethic and good character

[MagicMatic]

I bet some people thought they figured this hack out last year and then lost a lot of money.

Right. I was thinking it was because Jabari Smith’s dad played professionally in the league.

I could see the “pro parents” argument.

I think the majority of their selections have come at a combination of High School class recruit rankings crossed with projected draft ranking big boards.

That would leave these guys as higher ranked in WeHams POV:

1) Nick Smith
2) Derek Lively
3) Dariq Whitehead
4) Cason Wallace
5) GG Jackson
6) Keyonte George

2021:
Paolo, Chet, and Jabari were all top 10. Bonus points: Caleb Houstan was a top 10-15 prospect in this class!

2020:
Suggs was ranked in to 10-15 but was projected a top 3 pick after college. Cade, Green, and Mobley were all ranked higher than him in projections and high school rankings.
Franz is the only player to go against this theory. He didn’t have a high ranking and played his way into Orlando’s pick.

2019:
Cole was a top recruit in high school.

2018:
Bamba was a top 3 recruit

[tiderulz]

Gradey Dick's mother was a starter Center of Iowa St. An NCAA member of the 1,000 point club (1,097), she was named the Iowa State Female Athlete of the Year in 1989.

Dad: only a Div2 player in Football and baseball at Fort Hays State University. If anyone here ever heard of that school you earned yourself a cookie.

Anyhow: another example of B-ball pedigree.

nope, he said only pro experience, not college

[drsd]

Gradey Dick's mother was a starter Center of Iowa St. An NCAA member of the 1,000 point club (1,097), she was named the Iowa State Female Athlete of the Year in 1989.

Dad: only a Div2 player in Football and baseball at Fort Hays State University. If anyone here ever heard of that school you earned yourself a cookie.

Anyhow: another example of B-ball pedigree.

nope, he said only pro experience, not college

Trivia: Dick's mother had a 62 pt. game in high school.

..

[basketballRob]

We've picked two former football players the last two drafts. Anthony Black was a star football player. His dad was pro in Germany, and Black lived there up until 4.

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