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I wouldn't say this is an exceptionally good thing, nor necessarily the worst thing, more of a fact that they are overcoming taking lower efficiency shots via defense and scoring a lot at the rim.

It’s a very limiting thing…you can win games (obviously) but it’s harder. Like a boxer without knockout power. When the playoffs come and we face adversity, it’s a big gaping hole that will be exploited defensively. Paolo & Franz will not be allowed by any team to just parade to the rim all night in a multiple game series without some outside threats…perhaps Houstan and Jett will play bigger roles by then. I think a trade is inevitable unless we’re to call this another “evaluation year”.

Skybox wrote:It’s a very limiting thing…you can win games (obviously) but it’s harder. Like a boxer without knockout power. When the playoffs come and we face adversity, it’s a big gaping hole that will be exploited defensively. Paolo & Franz will not be allowed by any team to just parade to the rim all night in a multiple game series without some outside threats…perhaps Houstan and Jett will play bigger roles by then. I think a trade is inevitable unless we’re to call this another “evaluation year”.

On the flip side, all the calls to trade everyone this offseason proved overzealous from fans and the reluctance to do from the FO has paid dividends for our hot start. I understand that we're all different fans, I think you're basically always looking to find trades or find that aspect more interesting and I'm the opposite. I want us to be proactive when the time is right and not asleep at the wheel, but also only bring in people that fit the mold of what we're trying to build here. The team has bought in with coach with defense first and constant paint pressure and it's our bread and butter. I mean, we can overhaul our offense to try to play like the Kings or Pacers but it doesn't mean we'd get any further, and every team is going to have a weakness.

That being said, we cannot totally ignore the need to have better shooters and spacing. If the guys we have can't do that consistently we'll have to find one that can. I still think we need a big volume guy who doesn't kill us on defense either.

But yeah, I'm glad all of the arguing I've done in the offseason for bring pro-patience has proved fruitful so far, and we will obviously need tons of tinkering and upgrades to be the most optimal contending team in the next few years, but ultimately that destination is going to be as far as Paolo, Franz and even Suggs now takes us.

Truly, I've tempered my trade targets and goals significantly based on what we're seeing...I would not be interested in a no-defense shooter (that I might have considered before) like Hield or Kennard. I do make an exception for Simons due to his youth, length, and athleticism - I think Mosely has to be recognized as our best defensive weapon, but there are certainly limits to his wizardry. So, my lust for shooting hasn't changed too much - but I wouldn't blatantly deep six our defensive identity for it.

You're right though...trade talk and GM stuff is usually more interesting to me than the particular games.

SOUL wrote:But yeah, I'm glad all of the arguing I've done in the offseason for bring pro-patience has proved fruitful so far, and we will obviously need tons of tinkering and upgrades to be the most optimal contending team in the next few years, but ultimately that destination is going to be as far as Paolo, Franz and even Suggs now takes us.

Wipe that smug grin of your face SOUL this is an Orlando Magic fan page after all!

Seriously though, I love how we have 3 abymal games of shooting 3ball and now its brought up.

- I think we are closer to top 20
- Yes this will be exploited. Where do we stack up in FTA though?
- Will refs swallow their whistles completely come playoff time?

What we are seeing, becomes worse when Fultz is on the floor. Less so when WCJ is on the floor. Ingles, as streaky as he can be, is an amazing balanced player out there in his limited role. It also becomes worse when Goga, Black is on the floor.

I can see a planet where unless Black develops his 3-ball by playoff time he is benched in favor of Harris. Though Harris doesn't appear to be interested this season. Houstan, might be a Prince type prospect for us. Well see.

I have no considerable inkling that J Howard will contribute in any significant way this season barring extreme injuries. Black on the other hand might be in a position to contribute more should we find a spot on the floor he can make 3balls at anything resembling an NBA average clip.

On the topic of trades. Seeing how heavily the modern 3 ball is valued by posters. Most of which I agree with by the way. I completely disagree that we can take a Brick of a 3ball player in player "X" and get an equivalent gold bar player in "Y".

Franz being our highest volume shooter and only making 30% is hurting our statistics here, there should be some regression to the mean assuming Franz was just in a slump. If he's more of a 36-38% shoother on 5 threes a game, should help.

Of course if Fultz is back as a starter and back to his 1 three attempt per game, that's not going to help...even though I guess he'd be replacing AB and his low makes/takes

when people think they cracked nba and understand how game works,game already has changed.

this is one of those cases.

basketball it's not moreyball

This is the type of “small” thing that you can address at the trade deadline. It’s a whole lot better than having to try and trade for a franchise changing superstar or even a big. Shooting can be found, and some teams have an abundance of it. We will be ok. And I don’t think that we’re the worst in the league overall. Like jpotter said earlier, I think we’re closer to top 20 overall

The Magic are finding success in other ways. It's not necessarily a problem, it's just open threes are relatively easy to create, and make. When teams are able to clog the lane and restrict the forwards of getting to the rim or limiting the Magic in transition, the Magic are going to have to generate and make open threes.

In the last two Boston games it felt like the Magic had some good defensive posessions, and then the ball swung out for an open 3 for Boston and it was just a cooler for us. Granted Boston beat us in a lot of areas, but threes felt like a real difference maker, and i am not even sure the Magic shot too bad.

I'm more interested in what the spread is for the Magic specifically.

In other words, what is the average 3PM difference per game.

Because if we're defending the three point line and the difference is negligible between us and our opponent in total 3PM, our place among the league in percentage of points from 3 is not so detrimental.

My problem here is that Orlando is 3rd in the league in FTs made per game. That contributes to the old-school "3-pointer".

Orlando has an excellent roster for getting "points in the paint". So much so, that, back to the point of this thread, a single guard sniper would truly elevate the FTs even more.

I did a small statistical analysis in Excel about wins to 3 point percentage.

The bottom line is that in 2021-2022, 3 point % shooting has about as much correlation to wins as 3 point % shooting defense (both R squared about 0.4)

It was somewhat more correlating to wins as defense, but not significant.

What was really significant in correlation (R squared ~ 0.6) to wins is that difference (3 point % - opponents 3 point shooting).

Bottom line is better 3 point shooting does not win more games unless defending the 3 stays constant.

(can't figure out how to upload the image of the chart)

AaronB wrote:What was really significant in correlation (R squared ~ 0.6) to wins is that difference (3 point % - opponents 3 point shooting).

Bottom line is better 3 point shooting does not win more games unless defending the 3 stays constant.

This fits the general notion that FG% differential in general (and 3-pt FG% is in that) is the most decisive stat to determine a W vs. a L.

I am now hopeful to getting some maths-dept. university UGs to do a deep dive on this for all teams over thee last decades.

AaronB wrote:I did a small statistical analysis in Excel about wins to 3 point percentage.

The bottom line is that in 2021-2022, 3 point % shooting has about as much correlation to wins as 3 point % shooting defense (both R squared about 0.4)

It was somewhat more correlating to wins as defense, but not significant.

What was really significant in correlation (R squared ~ 0.6) to wins is that difference (3 point % - opponents 3 point shooting).

Bottom line is better 3 point shooting does not win more games unless defending the 3 stays constant.

(can't figure out how to upload the image of the chart)

Wait, so you are saying.

Our team has to put the ball in the hole greater than or equal to an effort that prevents the other team from putting the ball in the hole as well?

What is this sport? Basketball?

We make up for it with our free throw attempts and points in the paint. Does it mean there are nights we can’t counter opposing hot perimeter shooting? Sure.

I would like to see how our style of play holds up in the playoffs when games tighten up.

drsd wrote:

AaronB wrote:What was really significant in correlation (R squared ~ 0.6) to wins is that difference (3 point % - opponents 3 point shooting).

Bottom line is better 3 point shooting does not win more games unless defending the 3 stays constant.

This fits the general notion that FG% differential in general (and 3-pt FG% is in that) is the most decisive stat to determine a W vs. a L.

I am now hopeful to getting some maths-dept. university UGs to do a deep dive on this for all teams over thee last decades.

This is really not that hard for the last 5 years or so.

Stathead and Excel could get to a 90% solution is about 4-8 hours.

The 100% solution could take much longer, but getting to a reasonable understanding is not very hard.

We can attempt to rationalize this one way or another, suggesting that this our "style" or that it's "by design" but it's obviously not a good thing that we make fewer threes than any other team and our offense is bottom half in the league.

Magic as an org need to value offense more, we are force feeding minutes to a defense specialist, offensive non factor point guard and our sharp shooter we took with our other lottery pick can only see Garbage time minutes.

There’s definitely a couple different schools of roster makeup at play right now. Our approach is closer to Denver and Minnesota as a lower % of points from 3, but being good enough in other areas (defense, FTs, points in the paint) to still have a top record.

Then there’s the 3pt bombers who are really hit and miss. Boston is the best of that group because they can play defense too, but many of the other high volume 3pt teams like Sac, Indy, Dallas, Utah, etc get routinely blown out by 30-50 points because of how boom-bust high volume shooting results can be.

I think our approach is much more stable and keeps games closer in general.