Playoffs, league trends, and Orlando’s future

[VFX]

This year’s conference semi-finals and finals have shown a trend in premiere back courts having success.

Indiana - Haliburton
New York - Brunson
Philadelphia - Maxey
Dallas - Kyrie/ Doncic
Minnesota - Edwards
Cleveland - Mitchell
OKC - SGA
Denver - Murray
Boston - Jrue/White

Each of these teams run on the success of these players and a primary or secondary option. The only major exceptions are Boston, Philadelphia and Denver for different reasons. Boston because they have two switchable Forwards that play outside-in, Denver because everything runs through their 4x* MVP Center, and Philadelphia with Embiid. Still, each of those teams have elite back courts in their own right with Maxey, Murray, White, and Jrue. Minnesota is currently getting decimated by one of the best back courts in league history despite having a more complete roster on paper.

Getting to the point…

Orlando’s offense does not operate in the same way these successful teams are built. Everything runs through two switchable Forwards that do NOT play outside-in. The Boston comparison ends at the idea of building around two forwards when you start looking at skill sets and back courts.

The question remains.. CAN Orlando be a massively successful team, capable of winning a championship, with the current framework of their roster?

If not, then what needs to happen for that to be the case? Are we banking on the idea that Franz and Paolo transform into exponentially better 3pt shooters? Does Orlando absolutely need a premiere scoring back court talent like the list above? If so, does that player exist outside of the role players people claim are acquirable?

I like the prospect of Paolo/Franz/Suggs. That being said, I have a very difficult time envisioning this group deviating from the status quo in terms of how these rosters are built and what we’ve seen in the playoffs. Especially considering the fact that all defense players are getting routinely picked apart by these generational offensive talents.

[drsd]

This year’s conference semi-finals and finals have shown a trend in premiere back courts having success.

Indiana - Haliburton
New York - Brunson
Philadelphia - Maxey
Dallas - Kyrie/ Doncic
Minnesota - Edwards
Cleveland - Mitchell
OKC - SGA
Denver - Murray
Boston - Jrue/White

Well: nine teams did not make the conference semi-finals (Philly). And I was also interested in the other five teams.

LAC - James Harden
LAL - D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves
New Orleans - CJ McCollum
Orlando - Chris Duhon
Phoenix - Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Grayson Allen

I guess the narrative is that a lot of teams have ball handling and/or shooting, and still flopped.

We can all agree that Orlando needs better guards. But for me, I am not sure I agree with your notion of "premiere back courts having success". Here the Clippers and Suns failure really stands out. Bench depth matters too.

[Knightro]

This year’s conference semi-finals and finals have shown a trend in premiere back courts having success.

Indiana - Haliburton
New York - Brunson
Philadelphia - Maxey
Dallas - Kyrie/ Doncic
Minnesota - Edwards
Cleveland - Mitchell
OKC - SGA
Denver - Murray
Boston - Jrue/White

Each of these teams run on the success of these players and a primary or secondary option. The only major exceptions are Boston, Philadelphia and Denver for different reasons. Boston because they have two switchable Forwards that play outside-in, Denver because everything runs through their 4x* MVP Center, and Philadelphia with Embiid. Still, each of those teams have elite back courts in their own right with Maxey, Murray, White, and Jrue. Minnesota is currently getting decimated by one of the best back courts in league history despite having a more complete roster on paper.

Getting to the point…

Orlando’s offense does not operate in the same way these successful teams are built. Everything runs through two switchable Forwards that do NOT play outside-in. The Boston comparison ends at the idea of building around two forwards when you start looking at skill sets and back courts.

The question remains.. CAN Orlando be a massively successful team, capable of winning a championship, with the current framework of their roster?

If not, then what needs to happen for that to be the case? Are we banking on the idea that Franz and Paolo transform into exponentially better 3pt shooters? Does Orlando absolutely need a premiere scoring back court talent like the list above? If so, does that player exist outside of the role players people claim are acquirable?

I like the prospect of Paolo/Franz/Suggs. That being said, I have a very difficult time envisioning this group deviating from the status quo in terms of how these rosters are built and what we’ve seen in the playoffs. Especially considering the fact that all defense players are getting routinely picked apart by these generational offensive talents.

The answer is no they cannot as presently constructed outside of a massive shift in both Paolo AND Franz's abilities as 3PT shooters.

But that is also why everyone and their brother is suggesting they get aggressive in adding talent into their backcourt

[eyriq]

Building around two 6'10 playmaking forwards is sort of unique. Tatum and Brown, Leonard and Siakam come to mind. I think it gives us great advantages in versatility and defense. The only real trend I'm really interested in is the trend that says you need the top 10 top 20 and top 50 player to win the title.

[VFX]

This year’s conference semi-finals and finals have shown a trend in premiere back courts having success.

Indiana - Haliburton
New York - Brunson
Philadelphia - Maxey
Dallas - Kyrie/ Doncic
Minnesota - Edwards
Cleveland - Mitchell
OKC - SGA
Denver - Murray
Boston - Jrue/White

Well: nine teams did not make the conference semi-finals (Philly). And I was also interested in the other five teams.

LAC - James Harden
LAL - D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves
New Orleans - CJ McCollum
Orlando - Chris Duhon
Phoenix - Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Grayson Allen

I guess the narrative is that a lot of teams have ball handling and/or shooting, and still flopped.

We can all agree that Orlando needs better guards. But for me, I am not sure I agree with your notion of "premiere back courts having success". Here the Clippers and Suns failure really stands out. Bench depth matters too.

It’s a twofold situation based obviously on matchups. The Suns and Clippers ran into the buzz saws currently in the conference finals. Both of those teams lacked serious depth and had injury issues.

Whatever you want to call Doncic, Tatum, etc. they are playing outside-in, which is kinda more my point than merely just “back courts”. Orlando doesn’t play that way as currently constructed. They aren’t a multifaceted offense being run efficiently like every semi-finals or finals team.

[pepe1991]

While everybody talks about going big, two finalists will line up :

Boston:
6'10 C
6'8 PF
6'6 SF
6'3 SG
6'3 PG

VS

6'10 C
6'7 PF
6'6 SF
6'2 PG-SG
6'7 PG


Maybe Porzingis finally returns so we get first and last 7 footer in SLs.

I guess there is law of deminishing returns when it comes to size, where you giving up too much skill to "feed" size.
You can look at Wolves and figure their biggest problem is simply lack of offensive skills. Gobert can only catch lobs and dunk, Mcdaniels can shoot, but seems to be incapable of doing anything outside his comfort zone, Towns is skilled but something is lacking.

Reid took 126 shots on 14 assists total.


Where Boston and Dallas found perfect bland of skill and size. Big enough to switch, skilled enough to be versitale.

I really liked PJ as a rookie on Wizards, but guy showed can play lockdown defense, i did not see that comming. He is main reason why Towns looks so bad.

[eyriq]

While everybody talks about going big, two finalists will line up :

Boston:
6'10 C
6'8 PF
6'6 SF
6'3 SG
6'3 PG

VS

6'10 C
6'7 PF
6'6 SF
6'2 PG-SG
6'7 PG


Maybe Porzingis finally returns so we get first and last 7 footer in SLs.

I guess there is law of deminishing returns when it comes to size, where you giving up too much skill to "feed" size.
You can look at Wolves and figure their biggest problem is simply lack of offensive skills. Gobert can only catch lobs and dunk, Mcdaniels can shoot, but seems to be incapable of doing anything outside his comfort zone, Towns is skilled but something is lacking.

Reid took 126 shots on 14 assists total.


Where Boston and Dallas found perfect bland of skill and size. Big enough to switch, skilled enough to be versitale.

I really liked PJ as a rookie on Wizards, but guy showed can play lockdown defense, i did not see that comming. He is main reason why Towns looks so bad.

I think it's less about size, and more about both teams having top 5 players and multiple players that have made all-star games and All-NBA teams.

[VFX]

The biggest takeaway is that your allstars/ star level guys are able to create offense out of thin air, as 3-level scorers, while the rest of the team is able to stretch the floor and play very good defense.

Orlando as constructed does neither of those things and their star level guys have to develop into those players.

Randle, a somewhat close comp to Paolo, wasn’t even in New York’s series and it didn’t really appear to change how effective they were. I know he’s not a direct comp, but a faceup 4 that plays inside more than outside is somewhat similar.

[VFX]

Building around two 6'10 playmaking forwards is sort of unique. Tatum and Brown, Leonard and Siakam come to mind. I think it gives us great advantages in versatility and defense. The only real trend I'm really interested in is the trend that says you need the top 10 top 20 and top 50 player to win the title.

The problem with the Tatum/Brown comparison is that they take way more shots from outside. Ridiculous amounts more. Leonard was one of the best defensive players in the game at one point. Siakam is option #2 in Indiana with Haliburton being #1.

So yeah, it’s a unique pairing and mismatch. I question the skill sets unless considerable developments are made or very nice acquisition at point guard.

[eyriq]

Building around two 6'10 playmaking forwards is sort of unique. Tatum and Brown, Leonard and Siakam come to mind. I think it gives us great advantages in versatility and defense. The only real trend I'm really interested in is the trend that says you need the top 10 top 20 and top 50 player to win the title.

The problem with the Tatum/Brown comparison is that they take way more shots from outside. Ridiculous amounts more. Leonard was one of the best defensive players in the game at one point. Siakam is option #2 in Indiana with Haliburton being #1.

So yeah, it’s a unique pairing and mismatch. I question the skill sets unless considerable developments are made or very nice acquisition at point guard.

I mean you're not wrong. We need Paolo and Franz to be amazing.

[Knightro]

Tatum and Brown combine for 18 3PTA per 100 possessions for their careers at .375 and .364%.

Paolo and Franz so far combine for 12.4 at .321 and .332% combined 3PT%.

That is the massive glaring difference between the two pairings.

Paolo and Franz both have to get a lot better, *and* the Magic need to add borderline all-star caliber talent like Holiday, White and Porzingis to compliment them.

[Residual-Heat]

Paolo and Franz seem like better passers.

Paolo and Franz combined this year 9.1 apg, 5 TO
Tatum and Brown combined 8.5 apg, 4.9 TO

Not a massive difference, but very good considering that Paolo and Franz are 2nd/3rd year player being compared to Tatum/Brown in their 7th/8th year

[tooler]

I still think tall wings will always be better in the playoffs. It's not an exact science and clearly the scoring guards had a lot of success this season.

We don't need a jumbo lineup, and we need better guards, but we're still sitting pretty with two 6'10" wings.

[VFX]

While everybody talks about going big, two finalists will line up :

Boston:
6'10 C
6'8 PF
6'6 SF
6'3 SG
6'3 PG

VS

6'10 C
6'7 PF
6'6 SF
6'2 PG-SG
6'7 PG


Maybe Porzingis finally returns so we get first and last 7 footer in SLs.

I guess there is law of deminishing returns when it comes to size, where you giving up too much skill to "feed" size.
You can look at Wolves and figure their biggest problem is simply lack of offensive skills. Gobert can only catch lobs and dunk, Mcdaniels can shoot, but seems to be incapable of doing anything outside his comfort zone, Towns is skilled but something is lacking.

Reid took 126 shots on 14 assists total.


Where Boston and Dallas found perfect bland of skill and size. Big enough to switch, skilled enough to be versitale.

I really liked PJ as a rookie on Wizards, but guy showed can play lockdown defense, i did not see that comming. He is main reason why Towns looks so bad.

It’s not necessarily about size. It’s about how an offense is run and who on that offense is shouldering it.

You aren’t going to win games against a majority of the teams listed with their #1 and #2 options if your counter to those options are two 6’10 below average to average shooters in volume and percentage that accumulate their points less efficiently.

Yes, you need size elsewhere as well as depth. I’m just saying that simple math out of your investments won’t add up to wins if the development isn’t extraordinary.

Case in point, Minnesota is about to get swept as a team with 2 first team all defense guys, sixth man of the year, and a significant size advantage at every position. None of it matters if you can’t outscore Doncic or Irving in the fourth quarter as they kill them from everywhere on the court.

That’s my point with this thread. Orlando is relying on two-ish max guys right now with questionable ability of being 3-level scorers. That’s a problem.

The FO can believe in all the development they want. Even in the best case scenario Orlando’s back court is bottom of the league and peoples solution to this is a guy like Monk or Russell. Yeah, that’s not gonna cut it.

[The-Stallion70]

While everybody talks about going big, two finalists will line up :

Boston:
6'10 C
6'8 PF
6'6 SF
6'3 SG
6'3 PG

VS

6'10 C
6'7 PF
6'6 SF
6'2 PG-SG
6'7 PG


Maybe Porzingis finally returns so we get first and last 7 footer in SLs.

I guess there is law of deminishing returns when it comes to size, where you giving up too much skill to "feed" size.
You can look at Wolves and figure their biggest problem is simply lack of offensive skills. Gobert can only catch lobs and dunk, Mcdaniels can shoot, but seems to be incapable of doing anything outside his comfort zone, Towns is skilled but something is lacking.

Reid took 126 shots on 14 assists total.


Where Boston and Dallas found perfect bland of skill and size. Big enough to switch, skilled enough to be versitale.

I really liked PJ as a rookie on Wizards, but guy showed can play lockdown defense, i did not see that comming. He is main reason why Towns looks so bad.

This is showing why you don't build from the defensive side of the ball in the NBA today, not without an elite offense as well. Great offense beats great defense in basketball and in particular the NBA today.

Not true in every sport but in basketball, yes.

The rule changes have literally enabled offensive players. You can't invade their space when they shoot, no hand checking. Referees still reward flopping. The great shooting ability of today's players has turned every game into a scoring race and this is all more or less by design because fans prefer watching offense.

Thought Weltman would be smarter than to build a team centered around defense.

[drsd]

Whatever you want to call Doncic, Tatum, etc. they are playing outside-in, which is kinda more my point than merely just “back courts”. Orlando doesn’t play that way as currently constructed. They aren’t a multifaceted offense being run efficiently like every semi-finals or finals team.

I think ever RealGMers Magic fan is in agreement that one new starting guard is needed and guard depth in general needs to be solidified.

This needs to be done in a way to open up the box for Banchero and F-Wagner.

I am on record that a scoring PG is not the solution. But if that is what comes, it still improves the offense to the mess of the 2023/24 season.

As to your point on Dončić, Tatum, and etc., this is really what Banchero was stating in the exit interviews and the press nthe next day that he hopes the Magic does not get a new lead guard. He seems himself as the primary ball handleer.

Look back to the Bulls two threepeats. The "PGs" were John Paxson, B.J. Armstrong, Ron Harper. In the first threepeat, Paxson and Armstrong were longbombers. For the second, Harper was, actually I am not really sure. In game cheerleader?

The era of a pass-first PG is truly dead in the NBA. There was only one 10apg player in the whole of the NBA, and that was in a scoring PG in Haliburton.

Maybe Tyus Jones fits the mold.

My rambling aside, the modern NBA PG is a high usage player. The Magic do not have usages to go around to a third player. So, this is a soft-no for me. Frankly I would rather the Magic just start Black (next to Suggs), then to go after VanVleet, J-Murray, Russell, Sexton, etc.

Back to your point, which I agree with, the Magic's backcourt offense was the core problem to the last season and is THE priority for course correction.

[The-Stallion70]

I really don't like this practice of comparing Paolo and Franz directly to Tatum and Brown. They are kind of different players because of the size difference mainly. Boston is also an elite basketball org that knows how to develop players and I honestly don't trust the Magic to develop players as well.

Paolo and Franz are both better than Brown or Tatum at the same age. But I can't really fully explain why but I feel like Paolo is a player who will peak early as a top 35 player and plateau among that range.

Franz probably has more potential but needs to dramatically change his shooting mechanics and I'm not even sure if its realistic to expect that great of a change.

When I watch Luka and compare them to Paolo or Franz, its almost like watching two different sports. Luka is a true conductor and always makes the right play. Paolo and Franz still appear to rely on their athleticism and size to just try to beat guys.

[pepe1991]

While everybody talks about going big, two finalists will line up :

Boston:
6'10 C
6'8 PF
6'6 SF
6'3 SG
6'3 PG

VS

6'10 C
6'7 PF
6'6 SF
6'2 PG-SG
6'7 PG


Maybe Porzingis finally returns so we get first and last 7 footer in SLs.

I guess there is law of deminishing returns when it comes to size, where you giving up too much skill to "feed" size.
You can look at Wolves and figure their biggest problem is simply lack of offensive skills. Gobert can only catch lobs and dunk, Mcdaniels can shoot, but seems to be incapable of doing anything outside his comfort zone, Towns is skilled but something is lacking.

Reid took 126 shots on 14 assists total.


Where Boston and Dallas found perfect bland of skill and size. Big enough to switch, skilled enough to be versitale.

I really liked PJ as a rookie on Wizards, but guy showed can play lockdown defense, i did not see that comming. He is main reason why Towns looks so bad.

This is showing why you don't build from the defensive side of the ball in the NBA today, not without an elite offense as well. Great offense beats great defense in basketball and in particular the NBA today.

Not true in every sport but in basketball, yes.

The rule changes have literally enabled offensive players. You can't invade their space when they shoot, no hand checking. Referees still reward flopping. The great shooting ability of today's players has turned every game into a scoring race and this is all more or less by design because fans prefer watching offense.

Thought Weltman would be smarter than to build a team centered around defense.

It's not just rule changes, it's not even being rig about existing rule changes.

From the official NBA rules-
Rule No. 10, Section II, d: A player who is dribbling may not put any part of his hand under the ball and (1) carry it from one point to another or (2) bring it to a pause and then continue to dribble again.

When you read it you simply can't read it with straight face, knowing every player violates this twice a game and some lead guards in particular, do it every possession.


Celtics vs Pacers , 2:43 to play, game 4 of ECF, Brown has planted pivotal foot, than makes another step and makes layup to tie a game. So probably second most important shot that night was clear ( uncalled) travel.


Giannis is yet to make eurostep that isn't travel, nba even branded his eurostep to celebrate rule violations.

There is whole gather step problem where it's free card for third , illegal step, when you mix gather step and Eurostep, and it's being done by +6'8 person you give players 4 steps to run with a ball, if you are as big as agile as Lebron or Giannis, you can cover distance of 3 point line to dunking distance without putting ball on the floor. Ofc nobody can guard them , that's execlly what league wants. More stars. Entertaiment > sport & competition.

We had 3 years of James Harden "step back 3" being glorified despite fact guy would create distance by literally picking basketball with both hands, with both feet planted, than jumped with both feet back, than either take a shot ( already travel) or lunch himself into defender to create contact for 3 free throws. Guy won MVP award for mastering cheating move that was always- just a damn travel.

[The-Stallion70]

While everybody talks about going big, two finalists will line up :

Boston:
6'10 C
6'8 PF
6'6 SF
6'3 SG
6'3 PG

VS

6'10 C
6'7 PF
6'6 SF
6'2 PG-SG
6'7 PG


Maybe Porzingis finally returns so we get first and last 7 footer in SLs.

I guess there is law of deminishing returns when it comes to size, where you giving up too much skill to "feed" size.
You can look at Wolves and figure their biggest problem is simply lack of offensive skills. Gobert can only catch lobs and dunk, Mcdaniels can shoot, but seems to be incapable of doing anything outside his comfort zone, Towns is skilled but something is lacking.

Reid took 126 shots on 14 assists total.


Where Boston and Dallas found perfect bland of skill and size. Big enough to switch, skilled enough to be versitale.

I really liked PJ as a rookie on Wizards, but guy showed can play lockdown defense, i did not see that comming. He is main reason why Towns looks so bad.

This is showing why you don't build from the defensive side of the ball in the NBA today, not without an elite offense as well. Great offense beats great defense in basketball and in particular the NBA today.

Not true in every sport but in basketball, yes.

The rule changes have literally enabled offensive players. You can't invade their space when they shoot, no hand checking. Referees still reward flopping. The great shooting ability of today's players has turned every game into a scoring race and this is all more or less by design because fans prefer watching offense.

Thought Weltman would be smarter than to build a team centered around defense.

It's not just rule changes, it's not even being rig about existing rule changes.

From the official NBA rules-
Rule No. 10, Section II, d: A player who is dribbling may not put any part of his hand under the ball and (1) carry it from one point to another or (2) bring it to a pause and then continue to dribble again.

When you read it you simply can't read it with straight face, knowing every player violates this twice a game and some lead guards in particular, do it every possession.


Celtics vs Pacers , 2:43 to play, game 4 of ECF, Brown has planted pivotal foot, than makes another step and makes layup to tie a game. So probably second most important shot that night was clear ( uncalled) travel.


Giannis is yet to make eurostep that isn't travel, nba even branded his eurostep to celebrate rule violations.

There is whole gather step problem where it's free card for third , illegal step, when you mix gather step and Eurostep, and it's being done by +6'8 person you give players 4 steps to run with a ball, if you are as big as agile as Lebron or Giannis, you can cover distance of 3 point line to dunking distance without putting ball on the floor. Ofc nobody can guard them , that's execlly what league wants. More stars. Entertaiment > sport & competition.

We had 3 years of James Harden "step back 3" being glorified despite fact guy would create distance by literally picking basketball with both hands, with both feet planted, than jumped with both feet back, than either take a shot ( already travel) or lunch himself into defender to create contact for 3 free throws. Guy won MVP award for mastering cheating move that was always- just a damn travel.

I don't agree with everything you said but I do agree that the NBA does things that essentially help market the stars that directly conflict with rules of basketball.

The league's popularity took off with MJ's stardom after all. His well publicized and even celebrated "push off" on Bryan Russell is technically an offensive foul.

It is essential to the growth of the business and the other non-stars are okay with it because they are rich themselves.

These last two minute reports are also lame because they point out where they **** up and don't ever do anything about it. Like I don't care to know then and there is no accountability.

[pepe1991]

This is showing why you don't build from the defensive side of the ball in the NBA today, not without an elite offense as well. Great offense beats great defense in basketball and in particular the NBA today.

Not true in every sport but in basketball, yes.

The rule changes have literally enabled offensive players. You can't invade their space when they shoot, no hand checking. Referees still reward flopping. The great shooting ability of today's players has turned every game into a scoring race and this is all more or less by design because fans prefer watching offense.

Thought Weltman would be smarter than to build a team centered around defense.

It's not just rule changes, it's not even being rig about existing rule changes.

From the official NBA rules-
Rule No. 10, Section II, d: A player who is dribbling may not put any part of his hand under the ball and (1) carry it from one point to another or (2) bring it to a pause and then continue to dribble again.

When you read it you simply can't read it with straight face, knowing every player violates this twice a game and some lead guards in particular, do it every possession.


Celtics vs Pacers , 2:43 to play, game 4 of ECF, Brown has planted pivotal foot, than makes another step and makes layup to tie a game. So probably second most important shot that night was clear ( uncalled) travel.


Giannis is yet to make eurostep that isn't travel, nba even branded his eurostep to celebrate rule violations.

There is whole gather step problem where it's free card for third , illegal step, when you mix gather step and Eurostep, and it's being done by +6'8 person you give players 4 steps to run with a ball, if you are as big as agile as Lebron or Giannis, you can cover distance of 3 point line to dunking distance without putting ball on the floor. Ofc nobody can guard them , that's execlly what league wants. More stars. Entertaiment > sport & competition.

We had 3 years of James Harden "step back 3" being glorified despite fact guy would create distance by literally picking basketball with both hands, with both feet planted, than jumped with both feet back, than either take a shot ( already travel) or lunch himself into defender to create contact for 3 free throws. Guy won MVP award for mastering cheating move that was always- just a damn travel.

I don't agree with everything you said but I do agree that the NBA does things that essentially help market the stars that directly conflict with rules of basketball.

The league's popularity took off with MJ's stardom after all. His well publicized and even celebrated "push off" on Bryan Russell is technically an offensive foul.

It is essential to the growth of the business and the other non-stars are okay with it because they are rich themselves.

These last two minute reports are also lame because they point out where they **** up and don't ever do anything about it. Like I don't care to know then and there is no accountability.

Last two min report is joke within a joke because they bend own rules. You can always go back to Banchero's shot vs Pistons as they said it's not a travel, and when you slow down video you can count not 3,not 4 but 5 steps made. Double stepback with one small additional step. Perfect. Execlly how basketball was intented to be played

There are way worst plays than that in every game that go uncalled but given we are Magic fans, that's memorable one.

But it's just politics, if they admit mistakes on every 2 min report, their refs would look like clowns, now we know they are clowns but it's worst kept secret

At the end of a day nba wants "unstoppable " offense and as many James Harden's , Doncic's , Lebron's and not many Gobert's to stop them, so rules will always be in favor of offensive players.