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I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better

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The-Stallion70
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I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#1 » by The-Stallion70 » Fri Nov 22, 2024 2:47 pm

With fewer Paolo isos and more quick decisions made from Franz/ballhandlers up top. The team visibly appears more in sync when the lead dog gets his points more within the natural flow of an offense rather than isolation.
California Gold wrote:This is extra because people hate the Lakers and their brand so much.

This trade wasn't some conspiracy - it was just a GM wanting AD bad enough where in most people's eyes he overpaid by a long shot to get him.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#2 » by eyriq » Fri Nov 22, 2024 3:05 pm

The offense is clearly worse without Paolo, this is another bad narrative.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#3 » by Bergmaniac » Fri Nov 22, 2024 3:23 pm

The ball has not been moving well, we still run plenty of ISOs and the offense has been quite bad in most games since Paolo went down.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#4 » by JoshuaPotter » Fri Nov 22, 2024 3:37 pm

No.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#5 » by ibraheim718 » Fri Nov 22, 2024 3:52 pm

It was moving pretty good with Paolo iirc.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#6 » by The-Stallion70 » Fri Nov 22, 2024 4:00 pm

eyriq wrote:The offense is clearly worse without Paolo, this is another bad narrative.

K well I just like disagree then man, it was horrible before he went down.

Do you have the stats to back this up?
California Gold wrote:This is extra because people hate the Lakers and their brand so much.

This trade wasn't some conspiracy - it was just a GM wanting AD bad enough where in most people's eyes he overpaid by a long shot to get him.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#7 » by Knightro » Fri Nov 22, 2024 4:29 pm

The-Stallion70 wrote:
eyriq wrote:The offense is clearly worse without Paolo, this is another bad narrative.

K well I just like disagree then man, it was horrible before he went down.

Do you have the stats to back this up?


Magic ORTG with Paolo: 111.8 (15th)
Magic ORTG without Paolo: 108.1 (25th)

Now the ORTG without Paolo is completely submarined by that absolutely horrific back-to-back in Dallas/OKC.

Since that back-to-back, the ORTG is 113.5 (12th)

But it's also worth pointing out that Franz was sick as a dog for a few of the games he played with Paolo too. So we really only got 2-3 games with a completely healthy Paolo/Franz.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#8 » by JoshuaPotter » Fri Nov 22, 2024 4:43 pm

Knightro wrote:
The-Stallion70 wrote:
eyriq wrote:The offense is clearly worse without Paolo, this is another bad narrative.

K well I just like disagree then man, it was horrible before he went down.

Do you have the stats to back this up?


Magic ORTG with Paolo: 111.8 (15th)
Magic ORTG without Paolo: 108.1 (25th)

Now the ORTG without Paolo is completely submarined by that absolutely horrific back-to-back in Dallas/OKC.

Since that back-to-back, the ORTG is 113.5 (12th)

But it's also worth pointing out that Franz was sick as a dog for a few of the games he played with Paolo too. So we really only got 2-3 games with a completely healthy Paolo/Franz.


Do we have a Paolo Elephant thread yet or are we saving that?
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#9 » by OrlandoDream » Fri Nov 22, 2024 5:05 pm

Relax. Our offense still sucks without Paolo. WEre like the worse offense in the league and 2nd worst 3Pt percentage. Those double teams that Paolo draws for open looks for our wings is significantly missed.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#10 » by purpleswordfish » Fri Nov 22, 2024 5:08 pm

It really isn't much different, other than the player roles. Yes, Paolo Banchero would get the majority of the passes going to him when he was playing. But, it's obvious why. He's the best player on the offense for the Magic. Now, that level of passes to is going to Franz Wagner. In October - granted a smaller sample size of games - the passing stats actually look narrowly better than November. Again, it's important to point out the larger sample size in November without Paolo (15 games). The law of large numbers could be attributed to a slightly smaller average of passes. You know what's really interesting to me? That the Magic take more 2-pointers than 3-pointers with Paolo out of the lineup this year. That typically correlates with lower efficiency on offense. I pulled some stats from NBA and put totals down at the bottom to show my point. My main takeaways:

- The Magic shoot less 3-point shots and at a worse percentage (-6%) with Paolo out of the lineup.
- The Magic shoot more 2-point shots at a better percentage (+2.26%) with Paolo out of the lineup.
- The Magic pass a bit more per game with Paolo in the lineup, but it's a relatively negligible amount.
- The Magic have an assist rate that is basically 1:1 with or without Paolo in the lineup.

Please excuse my messy formatting, I didn't have too much time to pretty this up for a reply. I did feel the need to show actual statistics because I think you're - possibly unintentionally - creating a false narrative. If you can provide any sort of statistical analysis, I'd love to hear it. Your perception and "I just like disagree" position isn't a position at all.

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NBA Stat source #1: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612753/passes-dash?Month=1
NBA Stat source #2: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612753/passes-dash?Month=2
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#11 » by eyriq » Fri Nov 22, 2024 5:29 pm

Knightro wrote:
The-Stallion70 wrote:
eyriq wrote:The offense is clearly worse without Paolo, this is another bad narrative.

K well I just like disagree then man, it was horrible before he went down.

Do you have the stats to back this up?


Magic ORTG with Paolo: 111.8 (15th)
Magic ORTG without Paolo: 108.1 (25th)

Now the ORTG without Paolo is completely submarined by that absolutely horrific back-to-back in Dallas/OKC.

Since that back-to-back, the ORTG is 113.5 (12th)

But it's also worth pointing out that Franz was sick as a dog for a few of the games he played with Paolo too. So we really only got 2-3 games with a completely healthy Paolo/Franz.


Nicely put.

Dropping ten ranking points is huge. Of course not all of that is attributable to Paolo's effect on offense. Some of it is attributable to being without Paolo (adjustment period) and strength of schedule. So really three key factors can explain the ten spot drop:

1. Missing Paolo's offense, aka the Paolo effect
2. System adjustments, aka the system change effect
3. Strength of schedule, aka the SOS effect
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#12 » by JoshuaPotter » Fri Nov 22, 2024 6:20 pm

purpleswordfish wrote:It really isn't much different, other than the player roles. Yes, Paolo Banchero would get the majority of the passes going to him when he was playing. But, it's obvious why. He's the best player on the offense for the Magic. Now, that level of passes to is going to Franz Wagner. In October - granted a smaller sample size of games - the passing stats actually look narrowly better than November. Again, it's important to point out the larger sample size in November without Paolo (15 games). The law of large numbers could be attributed to a slightly smaller average of passes. You know what's really interesting to me? That the Magic take more 2-pointers than 3-pointers with Paolo out of the lineup this year. That typically correlates with lower efficiency on offense. I pulled some stats from NBA and put totals down at the bottom to show my point. My main takeaways:

- The Magic shoot less 3-point shots and at a worse percentage (-6%) with Paolo out of the lineup.
- The Magic shoot more 2-point shots at a better percentage (+2.26%) with Paolo out of the lineup.
- The Magic pass a bit more per game with Paolo in the lineup, but it's a relatively negligible amount.
- The Magic have an assist rate that is basically 1:1 with or without Paolo in the lineup.

Please excuse my messy formatting, I didn't have too much time to pretty this up for a reply. I did feel the need to show actual statistics because I think you're - possibly unintentionally - creating a false narrative. If you can provide any sort of statistical analysis, I'd love to hear it. Your perception and "I just like disagree" position isn't a position at all.

Read on Twitter

NBA Stat source #1: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612753/passes-dash?Month=1
NBA Stat source #2: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612753/passes-dash?Month=2


Holy cow, amazing point.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#13 » by Last Guardian » Fri Nov 22, 2024 6:51 pm

They mostly play exactly the same way. The biggest difference is that we have a C playing in the dunkers spot instead of the 3 pt line
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#14 » by golfreak » Fri Nov 22, 2024 7:18 pm

Stop the madness.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#15 » by Bakomagic » Fri Nov 22, 2024 7:26 pm

I hate that someone always has to do this when a key player is out.

Atleast an overwhelming majority of posts are about how we can’t wait to see how good we will be when Paolo returns with Franz cooking.

I guess this comes with having two rising stars, people will weirdly pick a side when no one is asking them to.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#16 » by Skybox » Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:07 pm

Why are people getting their panties twisted whenever someone sees something worth discussing? He's not proposing trading Paolo. I must have missed the part where he said "Paolo makes us a worse team" :banghead:

Weakened teams often adapt and do things that, maybe, they didn't HAVE to do when they had a skilled rhinoceros to lean on...it can be a difficult period that leads to longer term progress...according to some of the stats presented, it may not actually be true, but relax and analyze - these young celebrity millionaires do not need you defending their honor.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#17 » by Bensational » Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:29 pm

Skybox wrote:Why are people getting their panties twisted whenever someone sees something worth discussing? He's not proposing trading Paolo. I must have missed the part where he said "Paolo makes us a worse team" :banghead:

Weakened teams often adapt and do things that, maybe, they didn't HAVE to do when they had a skilled rhinoceros to lean on...it can be a difficult period that leads to longer term progress...according to some of the stats presented, it may not actually be true, but relax and analyze - these young celebrity millionaires do not need you defending their honor.


Why get your panties in a twist when people tell you it’s not worth discussing? Random internet posters don’t need you defending their honour.

No amount of trade proposals you post will influence the team, all it will do is influence your insistence that someone ‘needs’ to be moved.

We’ve got a young and developing team and instead of taking time to acknowledge growth people jump to wanting to flip guys immediately, or tell us how everyone is trash.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#18 » by tooler » Fri Nov 22, 2024 9:12 pm

The ball movement elephant in the room.
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#19 » by eyriq » Fri Nov 22, 2024 9:18 pm

tooler wrote:The ball movement elephant in the room.
Hahaha amazing
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Re: I'm gonna say it, the ball is moving better 

Post#20 » by RookieStar » Fri Nov 22, 2024 9:59 pm

JoshuaPotter wrote:
Knightro wrote:
The-Stallion70 wrote:K well I just like disagree then man, it was horrible before he went down.

Do you have the stats to back this up?


Magic ORTG with Paolo: 111.8 (15th)
Magic ORTG without Paolo: 108.1 (25th)

Now the ORTG without Paolo is completely submarined by that absolutely horrific back-to-back in Dallas/OKC.

Since that back-to-back, the ORTG is 113.5 (12th)

But it's also worth pointing out that Franz was sick as a dog for a few of the games he played with Paolo too. So we really only got 2-3 games with a completely healthy Paolo/Franz.


Do we have a Paolo Elephant thread yet or are we saving that?


We only use that as a lat resort during playoffs

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