Orlando Magic 3 point shooting breakdown

[pepe1991]

I had some free time under me so i decided to make breakdown of Magic players shooting prior last year, last year and this year, and give some career perspective.

As most people figure two major things happen
1) last year lot of players shot better than their career averages
2) this year almost everybody shoot below career averages

Troublesome is fact that aside from Gary Harris ( closer to retirement than new nba contract) and KCP, majority of roster can't really shoot to being with.
Magic players for their careers until 2023-24 were, as cumulative, 32% thee point career shooters.


If all Magic players shot their usual career averages, as a team, Magic would still be 32,4% three point shooting team AND STILL WOULD BE WORST THREE POINT SHOOTING TEAM in nba.




What i personally find annoying is pointing fingers at people like Carter & Isaac for sucking at shooting. Low usage guys who's ability or inability to make shots was never going to make any difference, especially since both are flat out bad outside shooters for career.
For example, Isaac shoots 26% for 3, and yes that sounds horrific. But in order to "jump" to his career average he only needed to make 9 more. You really think Magic offense would be fixed if Isaac made 41 instead of 32 threes spread across 52 games?
How about Carter? 20/100 for 3- Oh- My-God-He- Sucks. Well, again, he is only 10 threes made across 47 games away from career average. Guy took 15 threes in past 11 games. Even if he made all of them it would still impact final outcome of 0 games.


Magic right now, despite fact Suggs didn't play in ages, despite fact Franz and Banchero missed s** load of games, still have situation where 36% of all threes taken are taken, among group of players i used- between 3 of them. And can you guess their accuracy? 195/636 = 30,6%
And in same time supporting cast shoots is somehow even worst (27%).


Last year, PB, JS & FW shot 34% for 3 (1070 attempts) , supporting cast 36,7% ( 1309 attempts).


In conclusion, roster construction ( roster malpractice) is key reason why shooting sucks.
Asking bad shooters to on consistent bases make shots that they aren't capable of making at nba - expected level.

One of two major things need to change:
1) supporting cast should be made out of sharpshooters in order to pick crappy Franz, PB , lesser degree Suggs shooting
2) 2 out of 3 of them need to become at least good 3 point shooters.

[FFBlitzace]

So you're saying there's a chance

[drsd]

I had some free time under me so i decided to make breakdown of Magic players shooting prior last year, last year and this year, and give some career perspective.

As most people figure two major things happen
1) last year lot of players shot better than their career averages
2) this year almost everybody shoot below career averages

Troublesome is fact that aside from Gary Harris ( closer to retirement than new nba contract) and KCP, majority of roster can't really shoot to being with.
Magic players for their careers until 2023-24 were, as cumulative, 32% thee point career shooters.


If all Magic players shot their usual career averages, as a team, Magic would still be 32,4% three point shooting team AND STILL WOULD BE WORST THREE POINT SHOOTING TEAM in nba.




What i personally find annoying is pointing fingers at people like Carter & Isaac for sucking at shooting. Low usage guys who's ability or inability to make shots was never going to make any difference, especially since both are flat out bad outside shooters for career.
For example, Isaac shoots 26% for 3, and yes that sounds horrific. But in order to "jump" to his career average he only needed to make 9 more. You really think Magic offense would be fixed if Isaac made 41 instead of 32 threes spread across 52 games?
How about Carter? 20/100 for 3- Oh- My-God-He- Sucks. Well, again, he is only 10 threes made across 47 games away from career average. Guy took 15 threes in past 11 games. Even if he made all of them it would still impact final outcome of 0 games.


Magic right now, despite fact Suggs didn't play in ages, despite fact Franz and Banchero missed s** load of games, still have situation where 36% of all threes taken are taken, among group of players i used- between 3 of them. And can you guess their accuracy? 195/636 = 30,6%
And in same time supporting cast shoots is somehow even worst (27%).


Last year, PB, JS & FW shot 34% for 3 (1070 attempts) , supporting cast 36,7% ( 1309 attempts).


In conclusion, roster construction ( roster malpractice) is key reason why shooting sucks.
Asking bad shooters to on consistent bases make shots that they aren't capable of making at nba - expected level.

One of two major things need to change:
1) supporting cast should be made out of sharpshooters in order to pick crappy Franz, PB , lesser degree Suggs shooting
2) 2 out of 3 of them need to become at least good 3 point shooters.

This screams for replacing Caldwell-Pope with a new SG like Luke Kennard or Grayson Allen, or shifting Suggs to SG and picking up a Collin Sexton or Jose Alvarado. I go out of my friggin' mind when many here say the Magic need "playmaking" as if that’s the solution to all the Magic players being horrible at distance shooting. Rubbish. The Magic needs shooters on the roster as the A1 need. It is painful that all don’t see this clearly.

For the bench, Isaac's poor shooting reveals that he needs to be traded-out in a package that returns a new stretch PF at a backup level, and that the Magic MUST get a competent backup SG. Harris is a zombie on offense and is not the future of the depth chart at SG. And I don't want to hear "Howard". The dude is a career 30.8% shooter. He's not going to magically become a 38% shooter.

In conclusion: replace Caldwell-Pope for a guard that can shoot 39%+++, fire zombie-Harris and sign a 36% backup SG (will be a LLE signing**), trade Isaac for a offensive minded PF. These are not difficult gets for WePark. It's actually really easy.

** = There are 39 SGs in the NBA this year, position as classified by ESPN, shooting a threeball at a 36% rate or better. Most are backups.
Replacing Harris is easy.

Luke Kennard (MEM), Seth Curry (CHA), Ty Jerome (CLE), Keon Ellis (SAC), Grayson Allen (PHX), Zach LaVine (SAC/CHI), Norman Powell (LAC), Malik Beasley (DET), AJ Green (MIL), Gary Trent Jr. (MIL), Amir Coffey (LAC), Bradley Beal (PHX), Anthony Edwards (MIN), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (MIN), Josh Green (CHA), Isaiah Joe (OKC), Klay Thompson (DAL), Luguentz Dort (OKC), Ochai Agbaji (TOR), Donovan Mitchell (CLE), Quentin Grimes (DAL/PHI), Caris LeVert (ATL/CLE), Moses Moody (GS), Aaron Wiggins (OKC), Johnny Juzang (UTAH), Garrison Mathews (ATL), Max Christie (LAL/DAL), Desmond Bane (MEM), Max Strus (CLE), CJ McCollum (NO), Trey Murphy III (NO), Jordan Poole (WSH), Buddy Hield (GS), Josh Giddey (CHI), Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), Anfernee Simons (POR), Scoot Henderson (POR), Julian Strawther (DEN), Austin Reaves (LAL).

[pepe1991]

So you're saying there's a chance

[drsd]

So you're saying there's a chance

Suggs/Black
39%shooter/36%shooter
F-Wagner/da Silva
Banchero/36%shooter
Bitadze/M-Wagner

That roster will win games.

[drsd]

For perspective: this year 29 of 30 teams are Mendoza with the three-ball (>33%). Last year: all 30 teams were north of Mendoza. Two years ago: 29 of 30. Three years ago: 28 of 30. Four years ago: All 30 teams. Five years ago: All 30 teams. Six years ago: 29 of 30 teams. Etc.


It is reasonable to expect all rosters to average shooting at least 33% from three. 33% is actually bad. The Magic need to promote to this bad-level. That's the only ask here!

Orlando can be bad at three with only a 33% three ball given that Banchero, Suggs and F-Wagner will help the team lead the league in And-1s; the OTHER three-ball. The Magic cannot be horrible with the distance three ball and compete. They just can't.

From horrible to just bad. Get it done WePark

[pepe1991]

So you're saying there's a chance

Suggs/Black
39%shooter/36%shooter
F-Wagner/da Silva
Banchero/36%shooter
Bitadze/M-Wagner

That roster will win games.

Imo it's more complicated. For start Magic need at least top 20 in nba PG. Those guys are hard to find.
Such PG needs to be reliable on ball and treat to score and shoot off ball. Those guys are even harder to fine.

Due how bad Banchero has been on defense, you probably need rim defending C. Those guys aren't hard to find.
But since our spacing is historically bad, you need C that also can make some shots. Now, those guys are actually hard to find.

Suggs isn't PG, Black isn't PG. KCP in theory is "39% shooter". We know for fact this doesn't work.

Suggs needs to go back to SG and spend less time with ball.

In general whole roster needs massive changes if they are serious about Suggs+Franz+Banchero experiment.

[drsd]

Imo it's more complicated. For start Magic need at least top 20 in nba PG. Those guys are hard to find.
Such PG needs to be reliable on ball and treat to score and shoot off ball. Those guys are even harder to fine.

Due how bad Banchero has been on defense, you probably need rim defending C. Those guys aren't hard to find.
But since our spacing is historically bad, you need C that also can make some shots. Now, those guys are actually hard to find.

Suggs isn't PG, Black isn't PG. KCP in theory is "39% shooter". We know for fact this doesn't work.

Suggs needs to go back to SG and spend less time with ball.

In general whole roster needs massive changes if they are serious about Suggs+Franz+Banchero experiment.

I agree with you in spirit. But what you are asking for means that WePark actually need to become competent. What I am asking for, a get that clearly would improve the team, all arm-chair fans in the league can make - easily.

Improving this team is easy. Making it into a championship contender is hard. Right now I just want "better". I can't think beyond that step.

[pepe1991]

Imo it's more complicated. For start Magic need at least top 20 in nba PG. Those guys are hard to find.
Such PG needs to be reliable on ball and treat to score and shoot off ball. Those guys are even harder to fine.

Due how bad Banchero has been on defense, you probably need rim defending C. Those guys aren't hard to find.
But since our spacing is historically bad, you need C that also can make some shots. Now, those guys are actually hard to find.

Suggs isn't PG, Black isn't PG. KCP in theory is "39% shooter". We know for fact this doesn't work.

Suggs needs to go back to SG and spend less time with ball.

In general whole roster needs massive changes if they are serious about Suggs+Franz+Banchero experiment.

I agree with you in spirit. But what you are asking for means that WePark actually need to become competent. What I am asking for, a get that clearly would improve the team, all arm-chair fans in the league can make - easily.

Improving this team is easy. Making it into a championship contender is hard. Right now I just want "better". I can't think beyond that step.

I would be much less critical about front office if they are like Bucks, top heavy, out of assets and just have tough time finding trade partners.
But with so many players on rookie deals, with 3 first round picks in 2025 & 2026, with expiring players, making decision to do nothing mid season makes me angry.

Even going into this season running back same roster shows how incompetent they are.

And still, all this can be fixed with bit more creativity.
Can you make sign & trade for Capela, Turner, Naz Reid, would you consider taking Chris Paul for single season? Would team consider cutting Mortiz and Gary Harris to offer serious money to Ty Jerome?

Would Hornets take on both Magic and Nuggets pick for Josh Green? Would Magic take such deal? Would they do it for Jett Howard and pick?

Would Magic package all their picks and go for Kessler?

There are endless possibilities to make this roster better. But i know what won't fix it. Doing nothing.

[msmoore66]

For perspective: this year 29 of 30 teams are Mendoza with the three-ball (>33%). Last year: all 30 teams were north of Mendoza. Two years ago: 29 of 30. Three years ago: 28 of 30. Four years ago: All 30 teams. Five years ago: All 30 teams. Six years ago: 29 of 30 teams. Etc.


It is reasonable to expect all rosters to average shooting at least 33% from three. 33% is actually bad. The Magic need to promote to this bad-level. That's the only ask here!

Orlando can be bad at three with only a 33% three ball given that Banchero, Suggs and F-Wagner will help the team lead the league in And-1s; the OTHER three-ball. The Magic cannot be horrible with the distance three ball and compete. They just can't.

From horrible to just bad. Get it done WePark

Quick help, who is Mendoza?

[GelbeWand09]

Funniest post i've had in my timeline today. 2 low volume shooters in a span of 4 YEARS, who play the same position, which means they ''steal shots & usage & minutes'' from each other, while losing Ingles. Yea no fault from Weltman here to see. They added enough shooting Even if KCP hits his normal %, his volume is so low, we are still 30th or 29th in the leaque.

Read on Twitter

[pepe1991]

Funniest post i've had in my timeline today. 2 low volume shooters in a span of 4 YEARS, who play the same position, which means they ''steal shots & usage & minutes'' from each other, while losing Ingles. Yea no fault from Weltman here to see. They added enough shooting Even if KCP hits his normal %, his volume is so low, we are still 30th or 29th in the leaque.

Read on Twitter

B2G probably arrived with his DeLorean from 1985 and heard all the kids talking about some 3 point line stuff.

[drsd]

Quick help, who is Mendoza?

The literal answer is Mario Mendoza. But that isn't helpful.

There is something called the Mendoza line in baseball, which is batting 0.200. The point is that if a batter bats worse than 20%, he should not be in the MLB not matter what other skills said player has.

When the 3-ball first came to the NBA, many teams were horrible (<<33%) as this shot was seen by coaches and players as basically an ABA gimmick.

Then the maths guys (yeh: even in the early 1980s, there were maths guys on NBA scouting) realised that shooting 33% from three is exactly the same as shooting 50% from two. Thus: the arbitrary 33% has been used by the NBA as a marker percentage for "it's better than a two."

Said another way relative to the Magic, any NBA team that shoots less than 33% from three should not be taking many. Below 33%, the threeball is a bad shot; above 33% it is a good shot. And as >28 of 30 teams are above 33% or higher, thus the league is currently a three-ball league. For example: an elite mid-range shooter is often in the 48% range. That is thus a bad shot, always, compared to shooting 33% from three. In the modern NBA teams should only be running PnRs for layups or three-pointers: statistically.

That's the gist.

[msmoore66]

Quick help, who is Mendoza?

The literal answer is Mario Mendoza. But that isn't helpful.

There is something called the Mendoza line in baseball, which is batting 0.200. The point is that if a batter bats worse than 20%, he should not be in the MLB not matter what other skills said player has.

When the 3-ball first came to the NBA, many teams were horrible (<<33%) as this shot was seen by coaches and players as basically an ABA gimmick.

Then the maths guys (yeh: even in the early 1980s, there were maths guys on NBA scouting) realised that shooting 33% from three is exactly the same as shooting 50% from two. Thus: the arbitrary 33% has been used by the NBA as a marker percentage for "it's better than a two."

Said another way relative to the Magic, any NBA team that shoots less than 33% from three should not be taking many. Below 33%, the threeball is a bad shot; above 33% it is a good shot. And as >28 of 30 teams are above 33% or higher, thus the league is currently a three-ball league. For example: an elite mid-range shooter is often in the 48% range. That is thus a bad shot, always, compared to shooting 33% from three. In the modern NBA teams should only be running PnRs for layups or three-pointers: statistically.

That's the gist.

Gotcha, makes sense! Thanks for the explanation.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

So, what you are saying is that we need shooters at the trade deadline?

[Optimus_Steel]

So, what you are saying is that we need shooters at the trade deadline?

The Magic have needed shooters since 2012

[SHAQ32]

** = There are 39 SGs in the NBA this year, position as classified by ESPN, shooting a threeball at a 36% rate or better. Most are backups.
Replacing Harris is easy.

Luke Kennard (MEM), Seth Curry (CHA), Ty Jerome (CLE), Keon Ellis (SAC), Grayson Allen (PHX), Zach LaVine (SAC/CHI), Norman Powell (LAC), Malik Beasley (DET), AJ Green (MIL), Gary Trent Jr. (MIL), Amir Coffey (LAC), Bradley Beal (PHX), Anthony Edwards (MIN), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (MIN), Josh Green (CHA), Isaiah Joe (OKC), Klay Thompson (DAL), Luguentz Dort (OKC), Ochai Agbaji (TOR), Donovan Mitchell (CLE), Quentin Grimes (DAL/PHI), Caris LeVert (ATL/CLE), Moses Moody (GS), Aaron Wiggins (OKC), Johnny Juzang (UTAH), Garrison Mathews (ATL), Max Christie (LAL/DAL), Desmond Bane (MEM), Max Strus (CLE), CJ McCollum (NO), Trey Murphy III (NO), Jordan Poole (WSH), Buddy Hield (GS), Josh Giddey (CHI), Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), Anfernee Simons (POR), Scoot Henderson (POR), Julian Strawther (DEN), Austin Reaves (LAL).

Are those guys still shooting 36% playing next to Anthony Black? Playing 4 on 5 on offense?

[I Rasharted]

Quick video breakdown of Magic's 3-point shooting:

Watch on YouTube

[rcklsscognition]

What have we learned? You cannot teach shooting in the majority of cases. In the modern era players that are not centers generally do not ever get significantly and consistently better at shooting threes than they were when they were younger.