Look at the Math.
If the #9 Eastern team Chicago goes 33-0 the rest of the season, the Magic need to go 14-16 to best them. More realistically, lets say any off Chicago, Indy, Milwaukee, or Charlotte gets white hot and wins 80% of their next ~32 games (one of these four could do so; however unlikely), the Magic only need to go 7-23. There are only two teams in the NBA winning at a lower clip; Miami and Minny. The Magic WILL win 7 games.
All mathematical paths now place the Magic in to the playoffs.
The Magic are assured a playoff spot
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The Magic are assured a playoff spot
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drsd
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Re: The Magic are assured a playoff spot
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parso15
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Re: The Magic are assured a playoff spot
drsd wrote:Look at the Math.
If the #9 Eastern team Chicago goes 33-0 the rest of the season, the Magic need to go 14-16 to best them. More realistically, lets say any off Chicago, Indy, Milwaukee, or Charlotte gets white hot and wins 80% of their next ~32 games (one of these four could do so; however unlikely), the Magic only need to go 7-23. There are only two teams in the NBA winning at a lower clip; Miami and Minny. The Magic WILL win 7 games.
All mathematical paths now place the Magic in to the playoffs.
What a relief
... just making the playoffs doesn't cut it!!!Re: The Magic are assured a playoff spot
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timgator
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Re: The Magic are assured a playoff spot
parso15 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
What a relief
You have to take one step at a time. I think his point was that we can now focus on the next step of winning the first round rather than trying to fight for a playoff spot. I don't think he meant that our season is now complete.
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drsd
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damo[23] wrote:Whats the Maths to garantee we dont face the Pistons in the 1st round?
The Pistons are essentially a lock to be the #1 or #2 seed. And are more likely to be 2 over 1. So, we are talking about the odds of a #7 seed.
The #7 is currently 21-25 Atlanta. (the #6 is 24-25 Washington, and the #8 is 21-29 NJ). So, Orlando needs to finish worse than Atlanta and Washington is a likely requirement. That means both need to get hot. And, NJ or their following four - Chicago, Indy, Philly, Char. - need not to get hot (that latter is likely, the former is likely in that both are not likely to get hot; one? maybe: not both).
So, the Magic need to finish below Atlanta. What does that mean? If Atlanta goes 80%, they finish with about 50 wins. Unlikely, but not impossible. In that scenario, Washington also needs 50 wins, that's a 24-7 (78% win rate). AANNDD even if both teams explode with wins, the Magic would need to win less than 18 games for this to matter.
No stats, but I ask this question: how likely is it that Atlanta AND Washington BOTH overtake Orlando? That's what is required for the Magic to slide to #7.
BTW: The most likely opponents for the Magic in the first round are Toronto, Washington, and Atlanta. Washington is THE most likely opponent. What's scary there is that Arenas and Butler will both probably be healthy.
And yes, the Magic look certain to face Detroit in the second round
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drsd
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MagicMadness wrote:Um, no offense, but we're not assured a playoff spot until we have an "x" next to our name in the standings.
Lets not get ahead of ourselves here.
At one level I agree (something about counting chickens?!?!?).
On another level, if the Magic lost all of the rest of their games, the still might qualify for the playoffs. That's how huge their lead is over the current #9.
