Official Playoff Race Thread - Prediction ORL (3) vs TOR (6)

[TheGlyde]

By Request I've brought back this thread which I kept updated during last seasons playoff race. We have clinched a playoff spot , and the south east division,:clap::clap: and home court advantage in the first round:clap::clap::clap:and the three seed:clap::clap::clap::clap:, so the intrigue surrounds where we are seeded and who our opponent is.

Current Standings:
1. Celtics 64-16 .800
2. Pistons 56-23 .709
3. Magic 50-30 .625
4. Cavaliers 43-36 .544
5. Wizards 42-38 .525
6. Raptors 40-40 .500
7. Sixers 40-40 .500

Tie Breakers:
- are now irrelevant.

Games remaining:
- 3. Magic [2] --- vs West: 0 --- On Road: 1 --- @ Home: 1 --- vs +500: 1
- 6. Raptors [2] --- vs West: 0 --- On Road: 1 --- @ Home: 1 --- vs +500: 0
- 7. Sixers [2] --- vs West: 0 --- On Road: 1 --- @ Home: 1 --- vs +500: 1

Last Game:
- 3. Magic Win @ CHI
- 6. Raptors Loss @ DET
- 7. Sixers Loss @ WAS

** Magic Numbers to clinch **
Magic are locked into the #3 seed

** The Magic Formula **
I used this forumla last year to correctly predict the Magic's 40-42 finish. This year however it predicts us to finish 56-26(!) mainly due to three factors:
1. we only play 4 more games vs teams over .500
2. we have played so well on the road this season, and
3. most of the teams Orlando has left to play at home are bad road teams.

The formula is basically a comparison between a teams home/road record, and their opponents home/road record, depending on the location the game is played.

Predicted final standings:
1. Boston: Current Pace: 66-16 Original Prediction: 68-14
Mon 14 @ NY W, Wed 16 vs NJ W.

2. Detroit: Current Pace: 58-24 Original Prediction: 63-19
Tue 15 vs Min W, Wed 16 @ Cle L.

3. Orlando: Current Pace: 52-30 Original Prediction: 56-26
Tue 15 @ Atl W, Wed 16 vs Was W.

4. Cleveland: Current Pace: 45-37 Original Prediction: 49-33
Mon 14 @ Phi L, Wed 16 vs Det W.

5. Washington: Current Pace: 43-39 Original Prediction: 40-42
Mon 14 vs Ind W, Wed 16 @ Orl L.

6. Toronto: Current Pace: 42-40 Original Prediction: 43-39
Mon 14 vs Mia W, Wed 16 @ Chi W.

7. Philadelphia: Current Pace: 41-41 Original Prediction: 37-45
Mon 14 vs Cle W, Wed 16 @ Cha L.

[SonicYouth34]

Nice job. How come there's nothing about Boston, Detroit could catch them with their easy upcoming schedule

[TheGlyde]

Nice job. How come there's nothing about Boston, Detroit could catch them with their easy upcoming schedule

Because its a lot of work ... ehh... I'll edit Borston in.

[theTHIEF]

i'll take Washington, Toronto, NJ* or Philly* in the first round of the playoffs...

[damo[23]]

Stickied.

Amazing effort as per Glydey boy.

[y 2 a B]

Great job with this Glyde. I'll gladly take a 56-26 record and a meeting with Washington in the first round.

[DiplomaticMagic]

We can beat anybody in the 1st round..but I'm hoping for Sixers in 1st round.

[The Letter J]

Because its a lot of work ... ehh... I'll edit Borston in.

Nice sig.

[locomagicfan]

I'd like to see a poll added of who we'd rather face in the first round. Washington, Toronto, or Philly.

I'd rather see Washington.

Toronto has too much depth for us to handle.
As we've seen this year with Philly and yeserday with GSW, we cant handle athletic teams.

Washington it is for me!

[MagicMadness]

Thank you, Glyde. Great job once again.

[j-ragg]

I'd like Philly.

All hail Theg once again.

[AdamTheGreek]

I picked Washington because Philly with just Iggy and Andre and that defense can kill us.

I don't care if the Wiz can score more, their defense is not as good.

[mhectorgato]

Thank you, Glyde. Great job once again.

x2

[drsd]

I'll go out on a limb and pick Atlanta. Yes they are four games back of the sixth, but I like their retooled roster. A vet PG is exactly what they need to teach their young guns how to win.

[BassMaster]

I would like the Magic to face the Wizards, but at the rate they are playing I see the Sixer's passing them and that is the teamt the Magic most likely will end up playing.
The Magic only have to play 4 teams with winning records the rest are below .500.
The biggest problem there is that Magic seem to love to play down to the level of the team such as the Sixers.
They need to face every team like they are either facing Detroit or Boston then they might win the rest of their games.

[aleZ]

Philly, cuz WAS will prolly have his big three back in time for the postseason and the Raptors aren't a great matchup. Neither is Atlanta btw...

[Hairy Midget]

It sucks that we can't come back and win games, but it's good that we almost can't have teams come back on us. It means we can hold leads pretty well. I'm usually confident if the team is up at halftime or the 3rd quarter because it means we're likely going to win.

[Logicjbr]

By Request I've brought back this thread which I kept updated during last seasons playoff race. This year we are pretty certain to be there, so most of the intrigue should surround where we are seeded and who our opponent is.

Current Standings:
1. Celtics 49-12 .803
2. Pistons 46-17 .730
3. Magic 40-24 .625
4. Cavaliers 36-27 .571
5. Raptors 34-28 .548
6. Wizards 30-32 .484
7. Sixers 30-33 .476

Tie Breakers:
- We have won the Celtics tiebreaker 2-1
- Detroit currently leads the tiebreaker due to superior conference record. (30-9) to (27-11)
- Cavaliers tiebreaker sits at 1-1 with two games remaining (1 home, 1 road)
- We have won the Raptors tiebreaker 2-1
- We lead the Wizards tiebreaker 2-0 with 2 home games remaining
- We lead the Sixers tiebreaker 2-1 with 1 home game remaining

Games remaining:
- 2. Celtics (21) --- vs West: 8 --- On Road: 12 --- @ Home: 9 --- vs +500: 7
- 2. Pistons (19) --- vs West: 4 --- On Road: 7 --- @ Home: 12 --- vs +500: 9
- 3. Magic (18) --- vs West: 6 --- On Road: 7 --- @ Home: 11 --- vs +500: 4
- 4. Cavaliers (19) --- vs West: 2 --- On Road: 8 --- @ Home: 11 --- vs +500: 8
- 5. Raptors (21) --- vs West: 7 --- On Road: 11 --- @ Home: 10 --- vs +500: 9
- 6. Wizards (20) --- vs West: 6 --- On Road: 10 --- @ Home: 10 --- vs +500: 9
- 7. Sixers (20) --- vs West: 3 --- On Road: 10 --- @ Home: 10 --- vs +500: 10

Last Game:
- 1. Celtics Win @ Mem
- 2. Pistons Win @ CHI
- 3. Magic Loss vs GSW
- 4. Cavaliers Win vs IND
- 5. Raptors Win vs SEA
- 6. Wizards Loss vs CHA
- 7. Sixers Win @ MIL

Next Game:
- 1. Celtics @ PHI - 'Magic Formula' Prediction: W
- 2. Pistons vs PHI - 'Magic Formula' Prediction: W
- 3. Magic vs ATL - 'Magic Formula' Prediction: W
- 4. Cavaliers vs POR - 'Magic Formula' Prediction: W
- 5. Raptors @ LAL - 'Magic Formula' Prediction: L
- 6. Wizards vs MIL - 'Magic Formula' Prediction: W
- 7. Sixers vs BOS - 'Magic Formula' Prediction: L

** Magic Numbers to clinch **
- 1st: 31 (combined Magic wins/Pistons losses) out of 39 remaining results. (.795)
- 2nd: 26 (combined Magic wins/Pistons losses) out of 37 remaining results. (.703)
- 3rd: 16 (combined Magic wins/Cavs losses) out of 37 remaining results. (.432)
- Division (and 4th): 11 (combined Magic wins/Wizards losses) out of 38 (.289) remaining results.
- 6th: 10 (combined Magic wins/Sixers losses) out of 38 remaining results. (.263)
- 7th: 7 (combined Magic wins/Hawks losses) out of 38 remaining results. (.184)
- 8th (playoffs clinched): 6 (combined Magic wins/Nets losses) out of 37 remaining results. (.162)

** The Magic Formula **
I used this forumla last year to correctly predict the Magic's 40-42 finish. This year however it predicts us to finish 56-26(!) mainly due to three factors:
1. we only play 4 more games vs teams over .500
2. we have played so well on the road this season, and
3. most of the teams Orlando has left to play at home are bad road teams.

The formula is basically a comparison between a teams home/road record, and their opponents home/road record, depending on the location the game is played.

Predicted final standings:
1. Boston: Current Pace: 68-14 Original Prediction: 68-14
Mon 10 @ Phi W, Wed 12 vs Sea W, Fri 14 vs Uta W, Sat 15 @ Mil W, Mon 17 @ SA L, Tue 18 @ Hou W, Thu 20 @ Dal L, Sat 22 @ NO W, Mon 24 vs Phi W, Wed 26 vs Pho W, Fri 28 vs NO W, Sun 30 vs Mia W, Tue 01 @ Chi W, Wed 02 vs Ind W, Sat 05 @ Cha W, Tue 08 @ Mil W, Wed 09 @ Was W, Fri 11 vs Mil W, Sat 12 @ Atl W, Mon 14 @ NY W, Wed 16 vs NJ W.

2. Detroit: Current Pace: 63-19 Original Prediction: 63-19
Wed 12 vs Phi W, Fri 14 vs SA W, Sun 16 vs NO W, Tue 18 vs Den W, Wed 19 @ Cle L, Sun 23 @ Was W, Mon 24 vs Pho W, Wed 26 @ Tor W, Thu 27 vs Mia W, Sat 29 vs Cle W, Tue 01 @ Min W, Fri 04 vs NJ W, Sun 06 @ Mia W, Tue 08 vs NY W, Wed 09 @ Phi W, Fri 11 vs Was W, Sun 13 vs Tor W, Tue 15 vs Min W, Wed 16 @ Cle L.

3. Orlando: Current Pace: 56-26 Original Prediction: 56-26
Mon 10 vs Atl W, Wed 12 vs LAC W, Fri 14 @ Mia W, Sat 15 vs Ind W, Mon 17 vs Cle W, Wed 19 vs Was W, Fri 21 vs Phi W, Sat 22 @ Atl W, Tue 25 vs SA W, Fri 28 @ Mil W, Tue 01 vs NO L, Sat 05 @ Cle L, Sun 06 @ NY W, Wed 09 vs Chi W, Fri 11 vs Min W, Sun 13 @ Chi W, Tue 15 @ Atl W, Wed 16 vs Was W.

4. Cleveland: Current Pace: 49-33 Original Prediction: 49-33
Mon 10 vs Por W, Wed 12 @ NJ W, Thu 13 @ Was L, Sun 16 vs Cha W, Mon 17 @ Orl L, Wed 19 vs Det W, Fri 21 vs Tor W,
Sat 22 @ Mil L, Wed 26 vs NO W, Sat 29 @ Det L, Sun 30 vs Phi W, Wed 02 @ Cha L, Thu 03 vs Chi W, Sat 05 vs Orl W, Wed 09 vs NJ W, Fri 11 @ Chi W, Sun 13 vs Mia W, Mon 14 @ Phi L, Wed 16 vs Det W.

5. Toronto: Current Pace: 43-39 Original Prediction: 43-39
Tue 11 @ LAL L, Wed 12 @ GSW L, Fri 14 @ Den L, Sun 16 @ Sac L, Mon 17 @ Uta L, Wed 19 vs Mia W Fri 21 @ Cle L, Sun 23 vs Den W, Wed 26 vs Det L, Fri 28 vs NY W, Sun 30 vs NO L, Mon 31 @ Cha L, Wed 02 @ Atl L, Fri 04 vs Cha W, Sat 05 @ NJ W, Wed 09 vs Mil W, Fri 11 vs NJ W, Sun 13 @ Det L, Mon 14 vs Mia W, Wed 16 @ Chi W.

6. Washington: Current Pace: 40-42 Original Prediction: 40-42
Tue 11 vs Mil W, Thu 13 vs Cle W, Sat 15 vs LAC W, Mon 17 vs Atl W, Wed 19 @ Orl L, Fri 21 @ Mia W, Sun 23 vs Det L, Tue 25 @ Por L, Wed 26 @ Sea W, Fri 28 @ Sac L, Sun 30 @ LAL L, Mon 31 @ Uta L, Wed 02 vs Mil W, Fri 04 vs Mia W, Sat 05 @ Chi L, Wed 09 vs Bos L, Fri 11 @ Det L, Sat 12 vs Phi W, Mon 14 vs Ind W, Wed 16 @ Orl L.

7. Philadelphia: Current Pace: 37-45 Original Prediction: 37-45
Mon 10 vs Bos L, Wed 12 @ Det L, Fri 14 @ Chi L, Sat 15 vs SA W, Wed 19 vs Den W, Fri 21 @ Orl L, Sat 22 vs NJ W, Mon 24 @ Bos L, Wed 26 vs Chi W, Fri 28 vs Pho L, Sun 30 @ Cle L, Tue 01 @ NJ L, Fri 04 @ Atl L, Sat 05 vs Atl W, Wed 09 vs Det L, Fri 11 vs Ind W, Sat 12 @ Was L, Mon 14 vs Cle W, Wed 16 @ Cha L.

Great work. But will we go 16-2..i don't know....maybe more like 12-6. I've been dying for us to go on a mini streek like Portland, Houston, even the 6'ers. I think the most we've won in a row since our hot start is 3 (or 4). I see us battling Cleveland for the 3rd spot til the last day.

[Logicjbr]

We can beat anybody in the 1st round..but I'm hoping for Sixers in 1st round.

I don't think Philly will be an easy win.

I feel we can beat anyone in the East when we come out and play hard from start to finish. I almost feel we need to have doubts about certain victory in order to play great in the playoffs. We just get too comfortable like we can make up any deficit in the 4th (which stats prove we can't). I say give us Washington with a returning Arenas and Butler. Our first test for either Boston or Detroit.

[MagicalMan]

hopefully we do go on a 10 game win streak starting tonight as predicted.