State of the Magic

[TheRevTy]

The Orlando Magic have exceeded all expectations this year. They clinched the Southeast Division title in March, have the 3rd best record in the East, and are all set up to win 50 games. These accomplishments are certainly noteworthy and deserve praise, but one must think about how complete the success is.

As they are currently constructed, it is widely believed that the Magic are still not able to dethrone the top powers in the East (Detroit, Boston) and are not true championship contenders. This belief is based off of their lack of a second intimidating inside presence. While they boast a center who is arguably the best young big man in the game, perhaps even best overall, they are currently starting two small forwards. Rashard Lewis was brought in during the last offseason to become the elusive go-to scorer that Dwight has lacked throughout his young career. However, Tony Battie went down with an injury before the season started, so Lewis was moved out of position to replace Battie in the starting lineup.

With Lewis manning the power forward spot, the game opened up for Hedo Turkoglu. He became one of the most versatile players in the game, always dangerous when the ball is in his hands. This two small forward lineup has been effective, and is a large part of this season's success. Yet it is this same concept that many experts feel is holding the Magic back.

The argument has been made that Rashard Lewis is not playing to his potential, as evidenced by a drop in many statistical categories. This could be due to a position change, new surroundings, or, as some have suggested, that Turkoglu is dominating the ball too much. Either way, Lewis has filled the role of power forward better than should be expected, albeit temporarily.

Where do the Magic go next season? Do they continue with this small lineup? Do they try and get a true power forward and slide Lewis to his true position? What then do they do with Turkoglu? The answers to these questions will undoubtedly shape the franchise.

Many have suggested obtaining a true power forward through trade (a Udonis Haslem-type player) and sliding Hedo and Rashard down a position. This would put Turkoglu playing the shooting guard position. While this would work offensively, due to Hedo's versatility on the end of the court, it would be a defensive nightmare. As it currently stands, Turkoglu is a below average defender, even while guarding slower small forwards. When the Magic play a team like the Lakers, Pistons, or Celtics, all of whom have elite shooting guards, Turkoglu would be a huge defensive liability, thereby limiting the amount of time Lewis and Hedo could spend on the court together. Bringing Hedo off of the bench poses the same problem, in that both he and Lewis need to play together to maximize success.

What is the solution? Either Lewis or Turkoglu should be moved for a all-star quality missing piece. Whether that piece fill in at the 1, 2, or 4, the piece needs to be top 10 in the league at that position at the very least.

As for point guard, I don't believe this is our biggest need. I believe if Jameer Nelson is given opportunity to play as he knows how to play, rather than solely as a distributer, he becomes a very good point guard. He is a scoring guard who has above average passing capabilities. His defense is merely average, which is yet another reason why Turkoglu at shooting guard would be ineffective. If he is allowed to drive to the basket and establish himself as a scoring threat, it opens up the floor for other players. He is an excellent slasher and seemingly can get into the lane at will. Forcing him to pass rather than shoot diminishes his potential as a threat. Defenses must be kept honest. Think Tony Parker or Chris Paul on the pick and roll.

Shooting Guard is a position that many have said is a huge need. As the team is currently constructed, we have the right shooting guards in Bogans and Evans. Defensive, hustle, and three-point shooting. If we lose one of our offensive weapons, as I am suggesting, then it is my belief that we should pursue Corey Maggette very hard this offseason (and only then, as Maggette, Turkoglu, Lewis, Nelson, and Dwight would all require too many touches to be effective together). I believe the allure of playing for an elite team near his family would be enough to bring him in.

That brings me to power forward. First and foremost, if we bring in a power forward at the expense of one of Lewis or Turkoglu, he needs to be defensive minded, or at least able to intimidate the opponent in the lane. Dwight Howard, though a defensive stud, is not capable of guarding both the driving player as well as his own man. This makes the Magic highly susceptible to a pick and roll. Add in a shot blocking power forward, and it becomes a different story. The 4 also needs to be able to extend out of the paint and continue to be an offensive weapon. A Ben Wallace-type player would make offensive life incredibly difficult for Dwight. Many believe the solution here is a healthy Tony Battie. Few seem to remember that Battie, while scrappy, was never a huge defensive presence. Last year, many were appalled that Brian Hill insisted playing Battie over the wildly inconsistent Darko Milicic. Battie simply is not the answer as the starting power forward. That said, he fills the role of back-up big man very well. He essentially replaces Adonal Foyle. Fran Vazquez, well, let's not go there, shall we?

What is the solution? In my ideal world, we somehow obtain Josh Smith. He would be the perfect fit at power forward on this team. However, since Atlanta most likely is not too willing to let him go to a division rival, we must turn elsewhere. That brings me to Andrei Kirilenko. He has fallen out of favor around the league because of his disappointing play, but many forget that he, too, is playing out of position. He was an all-star playing as a roving power forward for the Jazz before they obtained Carlos Boozer. He works best around the basket next to a bruising big man. He is just as versatile (though not as talented offensively) as Turkoglu, plus he brings a defensive presence that is second to few. His shotblocking skills are some of the best in the league, and he was an above average rebounder when playing the 4 (8 rpg). He is unhappy in Utah, as he is ignored offensively and lambasted publicly by his teammates. He can still play, as evidenced by his MVP performance in this summer's Eurobasket. Doing a deal of Turkoglu and Battie for Kirilenko makes us a much more balanced team overall, and, if we are able to add Maggette, we lose nothing offensively while furthering ourselves leaps and bounds defensively.

This seems to be the best solution. What do you think?

[J-Mezzy]

No, but thanks for the effort. Magette is a great scorer and addition to our team, but he is not a play maker like Hedo. Kirilenko is a great defensive presence, but he is not a play maker like Hedo.

Sooo, if we get rid of Hedo, who the hell is going to carry the play making role, Nelson? No, I think I'll pass

[TheRevTy]

Actually, Kirilenko is at least a good playmaker. He takes over Utah's ballhandler responsibilities when Deron is out of the game.

[Optimus_Steel]

I still believe we dont need a starting true PF. Someone like Brandon Bass/Verajao that can come off the bench and play big minutes if need be is adequate. Also, look at the guys we got maning SG: Evans/Bogans. If say we acquire a decent PF and we slide Hedo down to SG we would be alot better off than having guys like Evans/Bogans starting.

[eyriq]

(This didn't get any traction in the other thread I posted in, so since it fits here I'm reposting.)



Under Contract
Rashard Lewis
Hedo Turkoglu
Dwight Howard
Tony Battie
Brian Cook
Keith Bogans (PO)
J.J. Reddick
Jameer Nelson
Adonal Foyle (PO)
Marcin Gortat (TO)

Free Agents
Carlos Arroyo
Pat Garrity
Keyon Dooling
Maurice Evans
James Augustine

Team Needs
#1. At the 2 the Magic have a two headed tag team of career backups burying an unproven collegiate legend in J.J. Reddick. With the 4 spot being manned by the offensively oriented Rashard Lewis the starting 2 guard is demanded to bring a defensive mindset, at which neither Evans nor Bogans excel, but which each earn a passing grade and are used in tandem based on who is bringing it on any given night. In order to balance out the team's rotation a starting caliber 2 guard needs to be targeted through free agency.

#2. A second need is in the big department, someone to bring muscle, hustle, and defense at the 4/5 spots. Fortunately this should be covered by the return of Battie from the injury that has kept him out this entire season. He will be an improved backup to D12 in place of Foyle and will give the Magic the option to play him alongside D12 giving the Magic a defensive look that they sorely lack this year.

#3 Shore up the backup 1 spot by bringing back either Dooling or Arroyo. I would prefer Arroyo seeing as the offense does not miss a beat when he enters the game, but Dooling has been having a great year and brings grit and defense to the position, which is huge. He has also brought some timely scoring and leadership, though he is not much of a playmaker, which brings me back to Arroyo. Bringing back either one would be nice, and the Magic also need to draft a Point Guard with their 1st round pick.

Wants

Probably apparent in my needs section are my wants as well, but I'll spell them out regardless.

#1. I consider the Magic core to be Turk/D12/Lewis/Nelson/Reddick, and to be untouchable in trades. Why Reddick? Because the kid can shoot and if the Magic had a descent big to play with D12 (Battie) and a starting caliber 2 guard for Reddick to back up I think he could flourish. Not to mention I seriously doubt Otis could get much for him (if he proves me wrong than that's great).

#2. I want to see a PG drafted and either Dooling or Arroyo brought back. I like Nelson long term but both these guys have proven that they can bring consistent play to the spot and that is important. As for drafting a PG, lets face it, Nelson is a little shaky to say the least with concussions and inconsistent play and so an insurance policy is needed.

#3. Keep Lewis at the 4. He may not bring traditional Power Forward stats there but what he does bring he excels at and he consistently out plays his opponents by creating more mis-matches than he gives up. It also allows Turk to stay at the 3, where he is breaking out as a legit point-forward stud.

Projected Rotation

Nelson/Dooling or Arroyo/Rookie
MLE/Reddick/Bogans
Turk/FA or Evans
Lewis/Cook/Augie or FA
Howard/Battie/Foyle/Gortat

This is it. I see the Magic as being on the brink of greatness and upgrading the 2 along with another year of maturity for their stars is all that

[whocares]

The Orlando Magic have exceeded all expectations this year. They clinched the Southeast Division title in March, have the 3rd best record in the East, and are all set up to win 50 games. These accomplishments are certainly noteworthy and deserve praise, but one must think about how complete the success is.

As they are currently constructed, it is widely believed that the Magic are still not able to dethrone the top powers in the East (Detroit, Boston) and are not true championship contenders. This belief is based off of their lack of a second intimidating inside presence. While they boast a center who is arguably the best young big man in the game, perhaps even best overall, they are currently starting two small forwards. Rashard Lewis was brought in during the last offseason to become the elusive go-to scorer that Dwight has lacked throughout his young career. However, Tony Battie went down with an injury before the season started, so Lewis was moved out of position to replace Battie in the starting lineup.

With Lewis manning the power forward spot, the game opened up for Hedo Turkoglu. He became one of the most versatile players in the game, always dangerous when the ball is in his hands. This two small forward lineup has been effective, and is a large part of this season's success. Yet it is this same concept that many experts feel is holding the Magic back.

The argument has been made that Rashard Lewis is not playing to his potential, as evidenced by a drop in many statistical categories. This could be due to a position change, new surroundings, or, as some have suggested, that Turkoglu is dominating the ball too much. Either way, Lewis has filled the role of power forward better than should be expected, albeit temporarily.

Where do the Magic go next season? Do they continue with this small lineup? Do they try and get a true power forward and slide Lewis to his true position? What then do they do with Turkoglu? The answers to these questions will undoubtedly shape the franchise.

Many have suggested obtaining a true power forward through trade (a Udonis Haslem-type player) and sliding Hedo and Rashard down a position. This would put Turkoglu playing the shooting guard position. While this would work offensively, due to Hedo's versatility on the end of the court, it would be a defensive nightmare. As it currently stands, Turkoglu is a below average defender, even while guarding slower small forwards. When the Magic play a team like the Lakers, Pistons, or Celtics, all of whom have elite shooting guards, Turkoglu would be a huge defensive liability, thereby limiting the amount of time Lewis and Hedo could spend on the court together. Bringing Hedo off of the bench poses the same problem, in that both he and Lewis need to play together to maximize success.

What is the solution? Either Lewis or Turkoglu should be moved for a all-star quality missing piece. Whether that piece fill in at the 1, 2, or 4, the piece needs to be top 10 in the league at that position at the very least.

As for point guard, I don't believe this is our biggest need. I believe if Jameer Nelson is given opportunity to play as he knows how to play, rather than solely as a distributer, he becomes a very good point guard. He is a scoring guard who has above average passing capabilities. His defense is merely average, which is yet another reason why Turkoglu at shooting guard would be ineffective. If he is allowed to drive to the basket and establish himself as a scoring threat, it opens up the floor for other players. He is an excellent slasher and seemingly can get into the lane at will. Forcing him to pass rather than shoot diminishes his potential as a threat. Defenses must be kept honest. Think Tony Parker or Chris Paul on the pick and roll.

Shooting Guard is a position that many have said is a huge need. As the team is currently constructed, we have the right shooting guards in Bogans and Evans. Defensive, hustle, and three-point shooting. If we lose one of our offensive weapons, as I am suggesting, then it is my belief that we should pursue Corey Maggette very hard this offseason (and only then, as Maggette, Turkoglu, Lewis, Nelson, and Dwight would all require too many touches to be effective together). I believe the allure of playing for an elite team near his family would be enough to bring him in.

That brings me to power forward. First and foremost, if we bring in a power forward at the expense of one of Lewis or Turkoglu, he needs to be defensive minded, or at least able to intimidate the opponent in the lane. Dwight Howard, though a defensive stud, is not capable of guarding both the driving player as well as his own man. This makes the Magic highly susceptible to a pick and roll. Add in a shot blocking power forward, and it becomes a different story. The 4 also needs to be able to extend out of the paint and continue to be an offensive weapon. A Ben Wallace-type player would make offensive life incredibly difficult for Dwight. Many believe the solution here is a healthy Tony Battie. Few seem to remember that Battie, while scrappy, was never a huge defensive presence. Last year, many were appalled that Brian Hill insisted playing Battie over the wildly inconsistent Darko Milicic. Battie simply is not the answer as the starting power forward. That said, he fills the role of back-up big man very well. He essentially replaces Adonal Foyle. Fran Vazquez, well, let's not go there, shall we?

What is the solution? In my ideal world, we somehow obtain Josh Smith. He would be the perfect fit at power forward on this team. However, since Atlanta most likely is not too willing to let him go to a division rival, we must turn elsewhere. That brings me to Andrei Kirilenko. He has fallen out of favor around the league because of his disappointing play, but many forget that he, too, is playing out of position. He was an all-star playing as a roving power forward for the Jazz before they obtained Carlos Boozer. He works best around the basket next to a bruising big man. He is just as versatile (though not as talented offensively) as Turkoglu, plus he brings a defensive presence that is second to few. His shotblocking skills are some of the best in the league, and he was an above average rebounder when playing the 4 (8 rpg). He is unhappy in Utah, as he is ignored offensively and lambasted publicly by his teammates. He can still play, as evidenced by his MVP performance in this summer's Eurobasket. Doing a deal of Turkoglu and Battie for Kirilenko makes us a much more balanced team overall, and, if we are able to add Maggette, we lose nothing offensively while furthering ourselves leaps and bounds defensively.

This seems to be the best solution. What do you think?

1. despite the rather long analysis, this has to be said.
2. jameer average defender?
3. hedo below average defender?
4. riiiiight.

[OrlandoMagic]

Can someone sum this up for me? I looked and realized it would take about 30 mins to read all this, only to have to re-read it because I would forget what was said before. Than I would start reading the same sentence over and over by accident, only to realize everything around me is turning black. Why so long?

[craig01]

I don't think have to have a conventional starting PF.

Like Prorl said, a complementary banger that has enough size and energy to complement Howard is what is needed.

I actually like the smaller lineup once I got used to it. The Magic lack depth inside (Foyle can't really do anything, and Battie, besides being injured, isn't the physical presence needed to help Howard) is the number one priority to me, not only for now, but down the road too.

[JJ_Canuck]

Its gonna be tough drafting a point guard where we are in the draft, unless we want DJ Augustin(5'11'' jameer nelson clone) ... It will be a better idea to draft the best PF available, sign "insurance policy" Chris Duhon, and resign Evans and Dooling.


Pg Jameer, Duhon, Dooling
Sg Evans, Bogans, JJ
SF Hedu, Cook
PF Rashard, Jason Thompson
C Dwight, Battie, Foyle

[aleZ]

Great effort but it's too long, plus the Jameer and SG analysis are way off, Nelson is a poor defender and even if you watch the games blindfolded you'd know about it.

The SG rotation is mediocre at best: these guys can hit the three, but they aren't shooters by any means nor they excel in any particular category. A good SG has multiple skills and brings his A game every night, I just hope the Magic don't rely too much on Bogans and Evans going forward.

I'm still on the "we need a true PG" bandwagon, cuz Stan's system is more about run and gun than getting boards (otherwise I'd look at a good PF)

[TooNice00]

i am not sure what to do with this team. Could go on and on about our options. All i know is this is a perennial 50+ win team as presently constructed. Pretty much any serviceable player is going to make us better. It could be a defensive backup PG with decent playmaking ability, a starting SG, and another big man. Who do you want? pietrus, brandon bass, chris duhon, childress...ect and then the draft. i'd take any player that is going to be productive and provide depth at the pg, sg, and pf spot.

personally i would want a player similar to doug christie in his KINGS days.

[Optimus_Steel]

I don't think have to have a conventional starting PF.

Like Prorl said, a complementary banger that has enough size and energy to complement Howard is what is needed.

I actually like the smaller lineup once I got used to it. The Magic lack depth inside (Foyle can't really do anything, and Battie, besides being injured, isn't the physical presence needed to help Howard) is the number one priority to me, not only for now, but down the road too.

Yea, look at the guys we got coming off the bench now: Cook, Foyle, Garrity. Foyle and Garrity havent been usable for years, and Cook is too one dimensional. Having Battie return will help but he is not the answer. Another big body that can actually bang, move and jump some and not be a huge liability like Pat/Foyle is needed. We dont really need to change the starting foward lineup, we just need to have the ability to give teams another look and/or matchup, which we dont now.

[ivDT]

i don't think we can afford to stick with the "small" lineup in the long run.

right now, starting rashard out of position only covers for the fact that our shooting guards aren't that good and leaves dwight with more responsibilities because of what we lose by having rashard at the 4.

imo, we'd do well to just upgrade our 2 spot and put a real power forward up front with dwight.

[KoolMikeSkii]

We can want all we want LOL but its really about whats available. Right now that PF we would want is not available we have to draft a big theres a bunch coming out this year. The best use of our Mid level is probably Pietrus and/or Duhon. I know Pietrus is not the prototypical SG you guys want but he can shoot the 3 and play D exactly what we need. We dont need anyone that needs 10 shots a game like Maggete nor are we going to be able to get him for our mid level.

PG: Nelson/Duhon/Dooling
SG: Pietrus/Bogans/Reddick
SF: Turk/Evans
PF: Lewis/Battie/Cook/Fran?
C: Howard/Foyle/Rookie

I think this is the most realistic lineup were looking at next year.

[TooNice00]

i don't mind rashard at PF. Rashard being at PF is the reason we are such a good 3 point shooting and offensive team. Its our ability to go big that we lack. Battie isn't the answer to everything and is often overrated at times but he is a whole lot better than cook, foyle, and garrity at defending and boxing out for rebounds. He is the player you need coming in to play along side dwight when hedo comes out and when rashard comes out instead of cook and garrity. Battie can play a good 20mpg, nothing special nothing bad, where as i'd shoot myself to watch garrity, cook, or foyle log that many minutes every game. No matter what big men we get we will always complain and struggle during those minutes when dwight comes out.

[macdalejax]

As was pointed out earlier everything depends on what's available. Overall, we would be greatly improved with just a bit more depth off the bench. We'll see as time goes by who earns their roles on this team. Going forward I still see our team surrounding Dwight, Rashard and Hedo.

[lovehoops01]

I'm not sure how it helps for us to be re-evaluating the makeup of the team and the "state of the Magic'' after every game when the Magic are in the middle of a stretch run and the playoffs upcoming. I think it would be a better idea for us just to support the guys on the roster right now and worry about next season in the offseason.

But....I'll play along and add some input from outside. On both NBA TV and NBA radio today, there was some discussion of the Magic. One topic was the fact that Rashard Lewis was brought in and that the team doesn't rely on him at all. They have made a big deal out of the fact that he only has had two games when he's gotten 20 shots -- pointing out all of the money he got paid. They say the Magic have no go-to guy -- and that Lewis should be that guy. I thought this was an interesting perspective, considering that most teams look for balance -- and that some of that criticism was coming from Rick Mahorn. How many Pistons get 20 shots a game?

Secondly, they said the Magic need a real power forward. They said they don't have one, and that's one reason that other teams don't respect the Magic -- because they feel like they can overpower them in the end, that they only win if they get lucky making their shots.

So that is the viewpoint from the outside.

And my two brief thoughts on the comments above....There is no way that Keyon Dooling re-signs with the Magic to be the third point guard only. At minimum, he would go to a team that would let him be the lead backup. I think the Magic need to pick between Evans and Bogans. They both bring something to the team, but their games are not that different. They need to pick one, and go out and get another shooting guard who does something else they need (or play J.J. if they think he can be that guy).

But c'mon guys...maybe we could just get behind this team for now....and worry about the future after the season is over? I mean, what is the point of watching for the whole season if you ignore the finish and the playoffs and look straight ahead to the next season?

[TooNice00]

our powerforward is currently injured and thats why we don't have one. i think he is exactly what we need as long as rashard and hedo are on this team because there just isn't enough minutes for a powerforward of starter quality. Battie is at least solid and respectable. You see battie come in you are like well okay but you see cook, garrity, or foyle coming in you are like WTF. Cook is a chucker and is like andrew deClercq when it comes to fouling, i am not sure what garrity does when he is on the court, and foyle is like cemented to the ground. These players wouldn't even see the light of day on the miami heat. Battie of last year wasn't anything great but he at least did something when he was on the court.

[eyriq]

As for the "outside view" they'll shut up about our supposed weakness at the 4 if and only if we do well in the playoffs. They ripped Dirk for years for being a "soft 4" and not being a true PF and look how good he is! The best PF in the league is a sweet shooting "softy"! Lewis is not that far off the mark to being there too.

[craig01]

i don't think we can afford to stick with the "small" lineup in the long run.

I absolutely agree with the "long run" part of your comment. For now, the small lineup works, aids Howard in the post, and keeps the best basketball players on the floor.

Upgrades at several positions are necessary and should get easier to fill with further development from Howard. Until then, SVG just has to play the cards he's been dealt with.

Lets make no bones about it though.......this is not a championship contender, but for the first time in many years, has actually gotten decent results from it's roster.