An outsider opinion on Magic, hoped you would be interested.
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 4:37 am
I've been reading realgm for a while now, but no team (even my team) has ever intrigued me more to actually create an account. I've been watching Orlando games both regular season, and I watched all the post-season games, personally because I'm a fan of Dwight and I have fun watching him developing his game. If you are interested in an outsider opinion, here it is:
1- First of all, be optimistic. I think (it is pretty much a fact actually) that if Dwight improves his post-up game, and increase his FT percentage to %65-70, this team will be killer. I usually forget that he's only 22. There is a reason why he doesn't get the ball late in the game. His teammates, and his coach, doesn't rely on his ability under pressure. He's doing the same moves every time he gets the ball. Even he succeeds in those moves, he gets fouled, and it gets even worse. His athleticism is just spectacular, but I think he needs to play smarter(can't stress this enough) rather than playing solely on athleticism. I hate to compare his game to Shaq's, but he should be as dominant as Shaq once was if Orlando has any chance to win ECF.
2- Hedo is a very strange player in my opinion. He is certainly improved, it has been always obvious that he has great talent since Sacramento days (my friends in Sacramento used to have very high hopes about him, and they were very upset to see him go). He can handle the ball, shoot beyond the arc, take it to the rim. He is also a good defender(I don't see why you guys think he isn't a very capable defender). And to top it all, he only costs you guys 6-7 mil a year! I had you guys in the 6th-7th spot in the beginning of the season, and I think this guy is the difference between my prediction and now. He is your jackpot.
However, I don't think you are looking at him the right way. He's a very versatile player, good in all the aspects in the game, but he is not a superstar. To put it simply, Orlando can't turn to him to save their butts in the clutch every time. He's not LBJ, he can't finish that strong, and worst of all, he don't get superstar calls (which would be the time that he drives inside, flails his arms and lose the ball), and sadly, he never will. And I think he isn't just ready for this kind of pressure, since he is very inexperienced with this role. You can actually see him getting confused in some of the possessions. I think he will get even better next year. I hope he learns to make better decisions next year as he gets more experienced, especially in the clutch. He turns the ball over way too much, but I think he can solve this problem by learning to make better decisions. He singlehandedly carried Orlando in some of the 4th quarters, but it is just frustrating to see him make bad decisions in last couple of shots and lose the same game. I just wonder where would Hedo be right now if SVG had been here before.
p.s. On Hedo: I have no idea how you will be able to keep him after he opts out. I think you guys will have to match a $50m for 4 years kind of deal. I hope you find a way.
3-I remember when Rashard was in Seattle and became a free agent, I assumed he would get ~$10m a year type of contract. I was shocked when he closed out a max deal in Orlando. I mean I don't know what your management sees in him, but I just don't see it. Even if when he dropped 25/5/5 per game, Rashard always chocked in Seattle when it mattered the most. I'm not surprised a bit about his performance in the playoffs. I know you guys are all "but he is playing off his position, he is not comfortable", and I agree, it is hard for him to defend a PF in the paint (even though he is not that undersized). But it doesn't explain why he can't beat his defender off the dribble, or his 3 isn't falling. Even when he defended Bosh pretty great some of the games, or when he scored 30+ with like 95% FG in game 3, my thoughts didn't change a bit. I think he is a borderline star, a borderline all-star, a pretty good player, but that is about it. I don't want to state the obvious that he's not a max player, and his max contract will screw you guys forever. But I think that if his contract results in repeating failure in the future, it could drive Dwight away from Orlando.
4- If you guys ever want to accomplish anything, I'm certain more than anything that it won't happen with Nelson. I mean, the guy certainly plays with heart, he really wants to win the game. That's most people like to see in the court. But he is just not a capable point guard, and I doubt that he ever will be. You know when I saw Deron Williams sucking mightily in Utah in his first year and rise from his ashes in the second, I actually hoped the same would happen with this guy. But it ain't happening folks. He has very low BB IQ, he doesn't know how to get the ball to Dwight in the right position, he can't read transitions, he can't play PnR even decently. He used to make clutch shots but now Hedo is doing that. He is only good at taking it to the hole, and he occasionally passes to ball to an open shooter in 3 when he does. But, I mean, when you have Dwight, Hedo and Rashard in your team to score 20 a game easily, you just need a point guard that can get them in the rhythm, nothing more. I think you will be able to see the VAST difference between Nelson and other PG's in the league. Actually, screw the league, let's just look at the east conference top 8 (west would be just upsetting).
Boston: Rondo
Detroit - Billups
Cleveland - West
Toronto - Calderon & Ford
Washington - Arenas
Philadelphia - Miller
Atlanta - Bibby
Now look at these names, and ask yourself, is Nelson better than any of those guys? I mean, I can understand that this guy is a worse PG than Billups, but I just can't accept the fact that he is owned by Stuckey! Jameer can't defend anyone (he sometimes flops but doesn't help the cause), thus, he can't even negate himself with the opposing guard. He is just a void as I see it. Yes, again, you are right, neither Nash nor Parker are great stoppers. But don't be foolish enough to compare Nelson with those type of players. Just start him off the bench, or get rid of him A.S.A.P. Loving one player is one thing, but seeing if he is the right fit is another.
To make things clearer, here is a particular instance that I remember: It was Game 2 or 3 with Detroit, near the end of the first half, Detroit switched to zone, and started making a run. You know how that run started? Jameer attacked the rim in one possession, because he made a couple of layups beforehand, so he thought he was on a roll. At least 2 guys were open in the 3. I think he just didn't realize that Detroit was playing a zone defense. Anyway, that possession passed, and in the very next possession, he did the same thing! This time, he was able to shoot the ball, of course didn't make it because three Detroit players were on him. That is how much of a point guard Jameer Nelson is.
One of the hot topics is the fact that Orlando has 2 SF's, and since Hedo is a valuable asset right now, you need to trade Hedo. Totally agreed, you need to trade Hedo because it seems like your only out (you won't be able to find much improvement with MLE, and as I remember Battie wasn't that much of a help before his injury. I don't think you will be able to keep Hedo either). But I can say right now that, with the way Orlando's offense struggles without Hedo, either you need to get a ball distributer in return (Miller type PG would be nice), or you're going down. If you trade Hedo for a PF (Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, Wilt Chamberlain, doesn't matter), it will be disastrous IMHO. You will be left with noone to set the game once Hedo leaves. By the way, I support trading Hedo because Orlando can trade him. If someone is stupid enough to take Rashard's contract, just ship him off on the first plane. I would even be willing to trade him for Jermaine O'Neal if for some reason Indiana would be interested. At least you would have a max contract in the right position.
5- You obviously need help in your bench, bogans and dooling are just too inconsistent. By the way, what the hell happend to JJ? All you guys need to do was to teach him play some defense and gain some pounds, what the hell happened?
Overall, I think Magic had a very good season with the worst ending. I'm hoping this won't make them regress next year. I think they will have a better year next season, they can reach 60 IMO. They can also reach ECF next year, but they should be playing with more confidence against teams like Boston and Detroit. And I hope they will, because I like to see Magic play.
p.s.: These are just my opinions about this team. Since you guys are involved more with Magic, you have more valid opinions. Just want to write this because I have no bias, and not a fan, so I may be able to see things a little bit differently. I don't want to bash anyone, if I was offensive at some points, I'm sorry in advance.
p.s.2: Don't forget, you have a great team that comprises great people. They all have great attitudes and they seem like they are having fun playing basketball. You are very lucky.
1- First of all, be optimistic. I think (it is pretty much a fact actually) that if Dwight improves his post-up game, and increase his FT percentage to %65-70, this team will be killer. I usually forget that he's only 22. There is a reason why he doesn't get the ball late in the game. His teammates, and his coach, doesn't rely on his ability under pressure. He's doing the same moves every time he gets the ball. Even he succeeds in those moves, he gets fouled, and it gets even worse. His athleticism is just spectacular, but I think he needs to play smarter(can't stress this enough) rather than playing solely on athleticism. I hate to compare his game to Shaq's, but he should be as dominant as Shaq once was if Orlando has any chance to win ECF.
2- Hedo is a very strange player in my opinion. He is certainly improved, it has been always obvious that he has great talent since Sacramento days (my friends in Sacramento used to have very high hopes about him, and they were very upset to see him go). He can handle the ball, shoot beyond the arc, take it to the rim. He is also a good defender(I don't see why you guys think he isn't a very capable defender). And to top it all, he only costs you guys 6-7 mil a year! I had you guys in the 6th-7th spot in the beginning of the season, and I think this guy is the difference between my prediction and now. He is your jackpot.
However, I don't think you are looking at him the right way. He's a very versatile player, good in all the aspects in the game, but he is not a superstar. To put it simply, Orlando can't turn to him to save their butts in the clutch every time. He's not LBJ, he can't finish that strong, and worst of all, he don't get superstar calls (which would be the time that he drives inside, flails his arms and lose the ball), and sadly, he never will. And I think he isn't just ready for this kind of pressure, since he is very inexperienced with this role. You can actually see him getting confused in some of the possessions. I think he will get even better next year. I hope he learns to make better decisions next year as he gets more experienced, especially in the clutch. He turns the ball over way too much, but I think he can solve this problem by learning to make better decisions. He singlehandedly carried Orlando in some of the 4th quarters, but it is just frustrating to see him make bad decisions in last couple of shots and lose the same game. I just wonder where would Hedo be right now if SVG had been here before.
p.s. On Hedo: I have no idea how you will be able to keep him after he opts out. I think you guys will have to match a $50m for 4 years kind of deal. I hope you find a way.
3-I remember when Rashard was in Seattle and became a free agent, I assumed he would get ~$10m a year type of contract. I was shocked when he closed out a max deal in Orlando. I mean I don't know what your management sees in him, but I just don't see it. Even if when he dropped 25/5/5 per game, Rashard always chocked in Seattle when it mattered the most. I'm not surprised a bit about his performance in the playoffs. I know you guys are all "but he is playing off his position, he is not comfortable", and I agree, it is hard for him to defend a PF in the paint (even though he is not that undersized). But it doesn't explain why he can't beat his defender off the dribble, or his 3 isn't falling. Even when he defended Bosh pretty great some of the games, or when he scored 30+ with like 95% FG in game 3, my thoughts didn't change a bit. I think he is a borderline star, a borderline all-star, a pretty good player, but that is about it. I don't want to state the obvious that he's not a max player, and his max contract will screw you guys forever. But I think that if his contract results in repeating failure in the future, it could drive Dwight away from Orlando.
4- If you guys ever want to accomplish anything, I'm certain more than anything that it won't happen with Nelson. I mean, the guy certainly plays with heart, he really wants to win the game. That's most people like to see in the court. But he is just not a capable point guard, and I doubt that he ever will be. You know when I saw Deron Williams sucking mightily in Utah in his first year and rise from his ashes in the second, I actually hoped the same would happen with this guy. But it ain't happening folks. He has very low BB IQ, he doesn't know how to get the ball to Dwight in the right position, he can't read transitions, he can't play PnR even decently. He used to make clutch shots but now Hedo is doing that. He is only good at taking it to the hole, and he occasionally passes to ball to an open shooter in 3 when he does. But, I mean, when you have Dwight, Hedo and Rashard in your team to score 20 a game easily, you just need a point guard that can get them in the rhythm, nothing more. I think you will be able to see the VAST difference between Nelson and other PG's in the league. Actually, screw the league, let's just look at the east conference top 8 (west would be just upsetting).
Boston: Rondo
Detroit - Billups
Cleveland - West
Toronto - Calderon & Ford
Washington - Arenas
Philadelphia - Miller
Atlanta - Bibby
Now look at these names, and ask yourself, is Nelson better than any of those guys? I mean, I can understand that this guy is a worse PG than Billups, but I just can't accept the fact that he is owned by Stuckey! Jameer can't defend anyone (he sometimes flops but doesn't help the cause), thus, he can't even negate himself with the opposing guard. He is just a void as I see it. Yes, again, you are right, neither Nash nor Parker are great stoppers. But don't be foolish enough to compare Nelson with those type of players. Just start him off the bench, or get rid of him A.S.A.P. Loving one player is one thing, but seeing if he is the right fit is another.
To make things clearer, here is a particular instance that I remember: It was Game 2 or 3 with Detroit, near the end of the first half, Detroit switched to zone, and started making a run. You know how that run started? Jameer attacked the rim in one possession, because he made a couple of layups beforehand, so he thought he was on a roll. At least 2 guys were open in the 3. I think he just didn't realize that Detroit was playing a zone defense. Anyway, that possession passed, and in the very next possession, he did the same thing! This time, he was able to shoot the ball, of course didn't make it because three Detroit players were on him. That is how much of a point guard Jameer Nelson is.
One of the hot topics is the fact that Orlando has 2 SF's, and since Hedo is a valuable asset right now, you need to trade Hedo. Totally agreed, you need to trade Hedo because it seems like your only out (you won't be able to find much improvement with MLE, and as I remember Battie wasn't that much of a help before his injury. I don't think you will be able to keep Hedo either). But I can say right now that, with the way Orlando's offense struggles without Hedo, either you need to get a ball distributer in return (Miller type PG would be nice), or you're going down. If you trade Hedo for a PF (Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, Wilt Chamberlain, doesn't matter), it will be disastrous IMHO. You will be left with noone to set the game once Hedo leaves. By the way, I support trading Hedo because Orlando can trade him. If someone is stupid enough to take Rashard's contract, just ship him off on the first plane. I would even be willing to trade him for Jermaine O'Neal if for some reason Indiana would be interested. At least you would have a max contract in the right position.
5- You obviously need help in your bench, bogans and dooling are just too inconsistent. By the way, what the hell happend to JJ? All you guys need to do was to teach him play some defense and gain some pounds, what the hell happened?
Overall, I think Magic had a very good season with the worst ending. I'm hoping this won't make them regress next year. I think they will have a better year next season, they can reach 60 IMO. They can also reach ECF next year, but they should be playing with more confidence against teams like Boston and Detroit. And I hope they will, because I like to see Magic play.
p.s.: These are just my opinions about this team. Since you guys are involved more with Magic, you have more valid opinions. Just want to write this because I have no bias, and not a fan, so I may be able to see things a little bit differently. I don't want to bash anyone, if I was offensive at some points, I'm sorry in advance.
p.s.2: Don't forget, you have a great team that comprises great people. They all have great attitudes and they seem like they are having fun playing basketball. You are very lucky.