'08 Draft Player Platter
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:33 pm
/LONG Quasi-Pointed Draft Strategy What-if with actual Cap-friendly Roster logic to it /
/Stealth Post from Long-time Lurker /
/Saving Name Explanation & Other Tidbits for Another Time (if anyone is interested) /
/Repeat, This is LONG -- But so is the Off-Season! /
As fans we almost always get excited about prospects before the draft. The the various unknowns about each player are rounded upward due to our enthusiasm. At draft time all of these rookies-to-be are full of promise. That's why they get drafted, right? Sometimes we're excited about the guy that our team actually drafts. But we're almost always jones-ing for the prospects we missed out on. These are the guys that we watch the rest of their careers with the I-Told-You-So Eye! The annual excitement and the Potential Factor makes us think that we always need to do more in the draft: to move up, to trade for picks, to buy picks, whatever. It's an yearly sensation that only dulls slightly as we see rookies mostly struggle, watch, and cheer for their first few seasons.
But there was an observable and logical reason to believe that the '08 Draft was going to be significantly better than most recent drafts -- and specifically better than next year's draft. The Freshman Factor was at work in '08 with enough draft-eligible Freshmen with substantial "potential" to push quality players into the second round. This year it was almost a blight on your record if you went to more than one year of college. This fact and the Luxury Tax Limbo that the Magic are trying to pull made for a unique opportunity to splurge on this past draft.
In hindsight let's say that the franchise realized (or thought, like me) that the draft was special this year. And that they deliberately decided they should invest heavily in acquiring picks in '08 -- at the expense of cash and picks in '09. They could have purchased the 1st that Portland bought from New Orleans and the 2nd that Miami bought/traded for from Minnesota -- and another 2nd before #40. Then they could have loaded up with a variety of devalued older-than-Frosh players at different positions. This would have had unique roster benefits in addition to bringing us more game-ready players than most of the Freshman teenagers in the draft.
Let's say that Otis & Co. are right about Lee and that he's going to be a solid contributor. Fine, he's in at #22. There are some rumors that other teams were hot for him too and even tried to trade up. So does anyone have a problem with the potential of the actual pick of Arthur at #27? You almost have to draft good young bigs because teams don't give them up. So even if he is a bit of a spazz for a few years, he has some tools to become really good in time (or not). Then Chalmers as a serviceable rotation point at #34 and CDR as a pure luxury anywhere before Jersey at #40. It would have cost us something around the $3 mil Portland paid NO (they would rather have dealt with an East Conference team and that's the most you can pay); plus the alleged $1.5 mil plus two 2nds that Miami paid Minnesota if we got to them first; plus whatever pick #39 or earlier would have run. Remember that under this plan we explicitly want to trade away our '09 first and second as a part of these deals.
Yes, I'm making up a contrived scenario. But I'm using the actual picks and prices to make a point. The money and picks immediately translate to financial flexibility for three to five full years of these rookie contracts and restricted years. The late first-rounders are strapped to the scale for four years (two at team option) and the second-rounders for at least two. Then we have restricted rights on these guys for an additional year where we have a great deal of cost control. The money comes back to the Magic almost immediately in savings since rookie scale contracts are the biggest bargains in the NBA if the players can actually contribute in those years. RDV would get back the $5 mil in no time.
Think about this in detail for a moment. At first round scale and 2nd-round mimimums, ALL FOUR of these rookies would make about what Bogans makes this year combined. I'm saying that not only should they have paid $5 mil or so for the picks, they should have giggled about it knowing the roster effects. We could have done this only this year because we had an unusual number of free agents and only one starting role to fill. (Forget the "make Shard a three" talk, we're starting Turk and Shard at the forward slots.) We still sign MP to start replacing Evans; and the 4 Rooks directly replace Garrity, Arroyo, Augustine, & Foyle on the roster.
This allows us to wait Dooling out with his bird rights to see what his value might actually be, and still sign him under the luxury tax if we want to or go with AJ as we actually did. We should not give Dooling too many years, because he would be strictly a reserve PG from here on out. Plus, I think the Magic will experiment using Turk at point-forward along with MP and someone who can DEFEND a point guard, letting Lee/Bogans/CDR compete for that situational role. So we wouldn't commit big years or dollars to the back-up PG spots with this in mind and Chalmers on board.
Using this plan our roster would be FULL and our money problems would be largely solved for the medium-to-long run. We would have the ability to add difference-making free agents for up to the MLE, probably without needing to court starters who make more than that. The starting and reserve roles are largely set and the youth would be able to develop to their abilities without needing to count on them too much. As contracts for players expire (Bogans '09, JJ/Battie/Cook '10, etc.) we go with immediate impact free agents or strong-showing youth. And with the exception of '09, we could add in new rookies each year as well. Hell, we'd even welcome Franny over if he could muster the sack to make it here.
We have a good team and an attractive situation here in Orlando. Who wouldn't want to play next to Dwight? I strongly suspect that we will be able to add a veteran big with past All-Star credentials for the MLE or less in the next couple of years -- and not need to start him either. There are several big-contract players expiring over the next couple of years that will be slotted into the MLE or less for their latter years. We would have plenty of depth and flexibility and a terrific teaching environment. The kids would have to earn their minutes and yet would have a open playing field to do so. Can you imagine those practices? The Magic would take whatever contributions the young players could provide as likely third-stringers and continue to incubate them. We would have time to see what each of them could do... And wouldn't that be fun to watch!
In an average draft with a late first rounder, it would be considered a success if that pick plays and contributes during his first contract and stays in the league in a meaningful role after that. We all know what our record has been this decade with all picks at ten or higher not named Jameer Nelson. (Humphries, Hunter, Sasser, Gaines, JJ, Franny, who am I forgetting?). So how good would the foursome need to be for this gambit to be considered a HUGE success? The range goes: Out of the League, Stop-gap Sub/Practice Player, Rotation Player, Spot Starter, Solid Starter, Borderline Star, All-Star, Super-Star. If two of the four became rotation players or better on our (hopefully to continue) 50-plus win team, we would have clearly won all the way around.
It's hard to getter better with young free agents once you are significantly above average like the Magic are now. Young potential star-quality free agents need big money, long contracts, and starting roles which we do not have to offer. (If MP proves out to be a solid starter in our system -- which I think he will be -- his contract is a very good deal.) Older free agents who are salary-slotted after earlier paydays may choose to sign with you to be on a winning team with a chance for a ring. They're not really going to take less for the most part. But they'll choose good teams for comparable money and may sacrifice playing time for a well-defined & valued supporting role. But player development is usually the wild card for getting a team over the top. So wouldn't it have been fun to see who might BE REALLY GOOD out of that young crew while we go deep in the play-offs each year? I think so. Especially since it would have let us do so with the added bonus of signing a couple of slotted impact guys to meet specific needs during that time.
As it is, we have a strong team with a solid rookie in Lee and good free-agent signings so far this Summer. But as our Stop-gap Subs and Practice Players fall off of the roster each year, I'll be watching to see how good Chalmers, Arthur, & CDR become. I support my team and believe that management is competent, informed, and responsible for the most part... No mater what mistakes have been made or how much fun it is to spoof them (Otis as voice of Hamburgler/Cousin-It in next graphic novel!). So I'm not upset per se about not having these other young guys. But it's my right as a fan to waste time speculating (like this) and I will enjoy watching these other players with the I-Told-You-So Eye for years to come. For me it creates secondary interest in other teams and makes following the league more fun!
Now go back to work, whatever you do! I know I need to...
-The Other Ankle
/Stealth Post from Long-time Lurker /
/Saving Name Explanation & Other Tidbits for Another Time (if anyone is interested) /
/Repeat, This is LONG -- But so is the Off-Season! /
As fans we almost always get excited about prospects before the draft. The the various unknowns about each player are rounded upward due to our enthusiasm. At draft time all of these rookies-to-be are full of promise. That's why they get drafted, right? Sometimes we're excited about the guy that our team actually drafts. But we're almost always jones-ing for the prospects we missed out on. These are the guys that we watch the rest of their careers with the I-Told-You-So Eye! The annual excitement and the Potential Factor makes us think that we always need to do more in the draft: to move up, to trade for picks, to buy picks, whatever. It's an yearly sensation that only dulls slightly as we see rookies mostly struggle, watch, and cheer for their first few seasons.
But there was an observable and logical reason to believe that the '08 Draft was going to be significantly better than most recent drafts -- and specifically better than next year's draft. The Freshman Factor was at work in '08 with enough draft-eligible Freshmen with substantial "potential" to push quality players into the second round. This year it was almost a blight on your record if you went to more than one year of college. This fact and the Luxury Tax Limbo that the Magic are trying to pull made for a unique opportunity to splurge on this past draft.
In hindsight let's say that the franchise realized (or thought, like me) that the draft was special this year. And that they deliberately decided they should invest heavily in acquiring picks in '08 -- at the expense of cash and picks in '09. They could have purchased the 1st that Portland bought from New Orleans and the 2nd that Miami bought/traded for from Minnesota -- and another 2nd before #40. Then they could have loaded up with a variety of devalued older-than-Frosh players at different positions. This would have had unique roster benefits in addition to bringing us more game-ready players than most of the Freshman teenagers in the draft.
Let's say that Otis & Co. are right about Lee and that he's going to be a solid contributor. Fine, he's in at #22. There are some rumors that other teams were hot for him too and even tried to trade up. So does anyone have a problem with the potential of the actual pick of Arthur at #27? You almost have to draft good young bigs because teams don't give them up. So even if he is a bit of a spazz for a few years, he has some tools to become really good in time (or not). Then Chalmers as a serviceable rotation point at #34 and CDR as a pure luxury anywhere before Jersey at #40. It would have cost us something around the $3 mil Portland paid NO (they would rather have dealt with an East Conference team and that's the most you can pay); plus the alleged $1.5 mil plus two 2nds that Miami paid Minnesota if we got to them first; plus whatever pick #39 or earlier would have run. Remember that under this plan we explicitly want to trade away our '09 first and second as a part of these deals.
Yes, I'm making up a contrived scenario. But I'm using the actual picks and prices to make a point. The money and picks immediately translate to financial flexibility for three to five full years of these rookie contracts and restricted years. The late first-rounders are strapped to the scale for four years (two at team option) and the second-rounders for at least two. Then we have restricted rights on these guys for an additional year where we have a great deal of cost control. The money comes back to the Magic almost immediately in savings since rookie scale contracts are the biggest bargains in the NBA if the players can actually contribute in those years. RDV would get back the $5 mil in no time.
Think about this in detail for a moment. At first round scale and 2nd-round mimimums, ALL FOUR of these rookies would make about what Bogans makes this year combined. I'm saying that not only should they have paid $5 mil or so for the picks, they should have giggled about it knowing the roster effects. We could have done this only this year because we had an unusual number of free agents and only one starting role to fill. (Forget the "make Shard a three" talk, we're starting Turk and Shard at the forward slots.) We still sign MP to start replacing Evans; and the 4 Rooks directly replace Garrity, Arroyo, Augustine, & Foyle on the roster.
This allows us to wait Dooling out with his bird rights to see what his value might actually be, and still sign him under the luxury tax if we want to or go with AJ as we actually did. We should not give Dooling too many years, because he would be strictly a reserve PG from here on out. Plus, I think the Magic will experiment using Turk at point-forward along with MP and someone who can DEFEND a point guard, letting Lee/Bogans/CDR compete for that situational role. So we wouldn't commit big years or dollars to the back-up PG spots with this in mind and Chalmers on board.
Using this plan our roster would be FULL and our money problems would be largely solved for the medium-to-long run. We would have the ability to add difference-making free agents for up to the MLE, probably without needing to court starters who make more than that. The starting and reserve roles are largely set and the youth would be able to develop to their abilities without needing to count on them too much. As contracts for players expire (Bogans '09, JJ/Battie/Cook '10, etc.) we go with immediate impact free agents or strong-showing youth. And with the exception of '09, we could add in new rookies each year as well. Hell, we'd even welcome Franny over if he could muster the sack to make it here.
We have a good team and an attractive situation here in Orlando. Who wouldn't want to play next to Dwight? I strongly suspect that we will be able to add a veteran big with past All-Star credentials for the MLE or less in the next couple of years -- and not need to start him either. There are several big-contract players expiring over the next couple of years that will be slotted into the MLE or less for their latter years. We would have plenty of depth and flexibility and a terrific teaching environment. The kids would have to earn their minutes and yet would have a open playing field to do so. Can you imagine those practices? The Magic would take whatever contributions the young players could provide as likely third-stringers and continue to incubate them. We would have time to see what each of them could do... And wouldn't that be fun to watch!
In an average draft with a late first rounder, it would be considered a success if that pick plays and contributes during his first contract and stays in the league in a meaningful role after that. We all know what our record has been this decade with all picks at ten or higher not named Jameer Nelson. (Humphries, Hunter, Sasser, Gaines, JJ, Franny, who am I forgetting?). So how good would the foursome need to be for this gambit to be considered a HUGE success? The range goes: Out of the League, Stop-gap Sub/Practice Player, Rotation Player, Spot Starter, Solid Starter, Borderline Star, All-Star, Super-Star. If two of the four became rotation players or better on our (hopefully to continue) 50-plus win team, we would have clearly won all the way around.
It's hard to getter better with young free agents once you are significantly above average like the Magic are now. Young potential star-quality free agents need big money, long contracts, and starting roles which we do not have to offer. (If MP proves out to be a solid starter in our system -- which I think he will be -- his contract is a very good deal.) Older free agents who are salary-slotted after earlier paydays may choose to sign with you to be on a winning team with a chance for a ring. They're not really going to take less for the most part. But they'll choose good teams for comparable money and may sacrifice playing time for a well-defined & valued supporting role. But player development is usually the wild card for getting a team over the top. So wouldn't it have been fun to see who might BE REALLY GOOD out of that young crew while we go deep in the play-offs each year? I think so. Especially since it would have let us do so with the added bonus of signing a couple of slotted impact guys to meet specific needs during that time.
As it is, we have a strong team with a solid rookie in Lee and good free-agent signings so far this Summer. But as our Stop-gap Subs and Practice Players fall off of the roster each year, I'll be watching to see how good Chalmers, Arthur, & CDR become. I support my team and believe that management is competent, informed, and responsible for the most part... No mater what mistakes have been made or how much fun it is to spoof them (Otis as voice of Hamburgler/Cousin-It in next graphic novel!). So I'm not upset per se about not having these other young guys. But it's my right as a fan to waste time speculating (like this) and I will enjoy watching these other players with the I-Told-You-So Eye for years to come. For me it creates secondary interest in other teams and makes following the league more fun!
Now go back to work, whatever you do! I know I need to...
-The Other Ankle
