Should we try to extend Hedo now?

[Devin 1L]

Players signed to contracts 6-7 years in length (prior to July 1, 2005) are eligible to be extended four years after the date the contract was signed.

That date for Hedo Turkoglu? Three days ago, Saturday, August 2nd.

We have the ability to extend him for 3 seasons beyond 09-10, thus ending at the close of the 2012-13 season.

At the end of this extension, he will have just turned 34.

As far as extension amounts, we are able to extend him with raises of 10.5% of his 09-10 salary.

Thus, if we extended him now, we could offer:
(09-10 Salary: $7,354,500 | 10.5% Raise: $772,222.50)

Code: Select all

   10-11       11-12       12-13       Total       Average
$8,126,723  $8,898,945  $9,671,168  $26,696,835  $8,898,945

So, now that he is actually allowed to be extended, I was curious as to everyone's thoughts on extending him now.

Team

Pros:
-We have a guaranteed core of Nelson, Lee, Pietrus, Turkoglu, Lewis and Howard for at least the next 4-5 years.
-Potential to attracted other players due to competitive core of players locked up. As opposed to: "I'd like to go to a contender, and I might be able to push them over the top, but what if Hedo doesn't return?", or some variation.
-Chemistry, and not having potential problems due to contact worries hanging over the team/Hedo.

Cons:
-What if last season was an aberration?
-Possibility that Hedo could get injured in the next season or two.
-Potential to deal as an expiring contract.

Hedo

Pros:
-Long-term security in the event of injury, decreased performance, etc.

Cons:
-Could have an equal or even better season on a contending caliber team, thus a bargaining chip for even more money.


Those are just a few things to consider.

Anyhow, I just wanted to throw some of the details of this out for discussion, since he has just now become eligible to receive and extension.

[DiplomaticMagic]

I would, I like Hedo on this team. And after seeing Brand, Baron leaving for the $. I'm a little worried to let him go out on the market.

[richboy]

Unless he can get up to 10 million per season no way I extend to that deal if I'm Hedo. To many teams are under the cap next year. You could probably get that deal offered next summer from us.

This is going to be tough. IMO we have to extend him now. No way I let him become an unrestricted free agent. If he becomes a free agent I think he might be back but with the amount of teams under the cap nothing stopping a team like Portland, Miami, back to Sacramento, Atlanta from signing him. If he was to leave for nothing it would be pretty devastating. Especially if he matched his performance last year next year.

[darthcheech2000]

I would and for that kinda money who wouldn't?

One could go on and on about his skills and what he brings to this team.

I say lock him up ASAP

[craig01]

I doubt hedo would bite on that.

I'm not sure though if Hedo can be this productive/healthy again.

If he would sign it, then by all means get it inked.

[MagicHolland]

One thing that is the most important to me is that management makes up their mind on this during this offseason. Get him extended or trade him. I don't want to go into next season knowing Hedo can leave us for nothing. I'm leaning towards seeing what's out there to get us a true PF. If that's not possible try to extend him, because we'll only add a starting caliber PF through trading. Signing one is not a real option (Battie alone is a full MLE) and through draft seems like a long shot since I hope we're drafting late.

[TheRevTy]

2 things I worry about next year: Portland and Europe. Both could steal Hedo away.

[Devin 1L]

Unless he can get up to 10 million per season no way I extend to that deal if I'm Hedo. To many teams are under the cap next year. You could probably get that deal offered next summer from us.

Well, the average is $8.9, not a huge difference.

So, yeah, he may be able to get a $10 million/year offer from us next season, but what if he has a down year, what if he gets injured, etc?

It's a bit of a trade-off for him. He could potentially get $10 million/year from us next season, but there is also the risk of getting less.

By doing a deal like this, he's getting an average of $8.9 million per year, and the security of the contract.

This is going to be tough. IMO we have to extend him now. No way I let him become an unrestricted free agent. If he becomes a free agent I think he might be back but with the amount of teams under the cap nothing stopping a team like Portland, Miami, back to Sacramento, Atlanta from signing him. If he was to leave for nothing it would be pretty devastating. Especially if he matched his performance last year next year.

Those are possibilities, but how realistic?

Kings: They are likely about to go into all out dump mode for youth. Artest just went, Miller is probably next. Are they really going to want to throw money at a vet?

Atlanta: Just what they need, a $10 million/year small forward. Plus, there is always the chance that Childress comes back next season, seeing as though he has an opt-out each year.

Miami: Do they keep Marion? They're in more need of a point guard or center than a small forward, especially if they have Marion, Beasley, Haslem, and the development of Dorell Wright. Someone is getting small forward minutes.

Portland: I don't know. They'll have decisions to make, as both Webster and Outlaw expire that off-season (as well as others). Do Webster and Outlaw continue their nice development, do they just extend those two (as well as others)?

[drsd]

Orlando needs to establish their long-term needs for Hedo. Until then, he will not get signed.

[Devin 1L]

Orlando needs to establish their long-term needs for Hedo. Until then, he will not get signed.

Could you elaborate?

[gratia333]

Of course we should try... If turk opts out we willl not be able to resign him. We need to extend his current deal so that he is still making 7+mil when cook and battie are still on the books. If we extend he starts his new deal the year after Battie and cook are off the cap. This way we can give Turk a 10mil a year deal. I think we could give Turk 10mil a year for 4 years. I think he would sign that and we can afford it if and only if Turk plays out his deal.

[eyriq]

I am holding out hope that he does get extended as I think that is a best case scenario for the Magic. How many teams can say that they have a contending core locked up for that long term? Plus at that price he is a bargain if he maintains his level of play and could still be used as a valuable trade piece down the road.

[RickB-Orlando]

Orlando needs to establish their long-term needs for Hedo. Until then, he will not get signed.

Could you elaborate?

The way I interpret that (and I should admit an interpretation I agree with) is that the team needs to decide if they are going to be championship contenders with two small forwards playing together, if they want to move him to the bench behind Rashard and an improvement at power forward, or if they are best served in a championship run by packaging him up for a legitimate power forward or a big, defensive Point.

I'm still of the opinion that you sell high - in this case, if there's a trade available to bring in a legitimate 15/10 power forward, it's a deal we should pursue. While Hedo might be great for the next five years, I still think it's more likely he will miss games, suffer small injuries, and his game will weaken. I don't think he drifts back as far down as he was, but I think he may settle to a 15Point/4 reboud / 4 assist level. That's not necessarily a bad level, but I don't think it's what we need most, which is help on the boards.

[Bensational]

Unless he can get up to 10 million per season no way I extend to that deal if I'm Hedo. To many teams are under the cap next year. You could probably get that deal offered next summer from us.

This is going to be tough. IMO we have to extend him now. No way I let him become an unrestricted free agent. If he becomes a free agent I think he might be back but with the amount of teams under the cap nothing stopping a team like Portland, Miami, back to Sacramento, Atlanta from signing him. If he was to leave for nothing it would be pretty devastating. Especially if he matched his performance last year next year.

maybe it's just me, but i can't imagine teams considering Turk to be a 10mil talent. don't get me wrong, i think he is, and i know he turned heads last season, but if you've got the cap space, do you spend it on Turk? or a young "up and comer"? Turk is essentially an amazing role player. he's not a franchise player. so in my mind, only contending or fringe contenders would consider Hedo an option for their plans.

i'd say lock him up now, if he'll sign for that amount. but i agree that it most likely won't interest him, and he will test the waters next offseason, at which point we can raise the offer to 10mil if need be. it's no biggy, we'd be going over the LT anyway.

This upcoming season i imagine that Hedo's gonna take a step back, because of a few things. Opposing defenses will be wary of him. i think Lewis + Nelson will be stepping up. i think new guys like Pietrus and Lee will provide new options. This won't be a bad thing, but it'll make an impression on his league value. and it'll also make an impression on whether or not the Magic Brass consider him an essential option.

regardless though, he needs to be locked up so that even if he does fall out of the rotation we still have the option to trade him for someone that will fit. we can't stand to lose any more players for nothing.

[damo[23]]

Still not convinced with what to do with Hedo.

While I do like the guy I do think if we are paying Rashard so much we should be trying to get the maximum we can from him, and I do think that means going with him at the SF. And while Hedo would be a good 6th man; what it would cost us and the fact that towards what prob would be a 5 year deal [as theif suggests in another thread] it just wouldnt be worth it.

Right now I think he has alot of value and probably will be the highest we'll see - and I do think it could be a good idea to cash in on it.

[TheRevTy]

Like I said earlier, Europe and Portland are the 2 biggest threats.

Europe because he is already a star there, especially in Turkey.

And the only position Portland is not stacked with youth at is SF. They could easily see a floor leader veteran like Turk as the best option to lead their young guns, especially since Bayless isn't a true PG.

Edit: I think a deal of Hedo, JJ, and Bogans for Webster, Outlaw, Frye, and Rodriguez would be AMAZING, fills all of our needs.

Or take out one of Bogans or JJ and take out Webster on Portland's side.

[Cammo101]

Unless he will re-sign at a discount I would let it play out. It is always dangerous to re-sign a guy after one big year. Not that I think Hedo is a one year wonder, but there is very little upside to re-signing him now at a price you can re-sign him for later. He is a little old to have money thrown at him in huge quantities next year, especially considering how few teams actually will have money.

[Bensational]

Still not convinced with what to do with Hedo.

While I do like the guy I do think if we are paying Rashard so much we should be trying to get the maximum we can from him, and I do think that means going with him at the SF. And while Hedo would be a good 6th man; what it would cost us and the fact that towards what prob would be a 5 year deal [as theif suggests in another thread] it just wouldnt be worth it.

i'm not a fan of this argument. i know what you're saying, and this is an extreme example, but that's like NY saying "heck, we're paying Marbs all this money, let's just build the team around him".

there has to come a point where you know what you're going to get out of a player, regardless of how much you paid them. i don't think we can get THAT much more out of Shard. 5ppg more, sure, but that's about it. he already hits at a decent clip, his rpg and apg are comparable to other years. the things we know about him are that he's not a leader, nor a floor manager. if we ship Hedo out, Shard will not be filling those deficiencies.

i think we should just accept that we overpaid for Shard, but that's no reason to try and force him to be worth that contract. not if it'll put us at risk of not being as good. but, with that in mind, we really haven't had any opportunity to see if Shard can carry this team or not. sadly i think we kind of need Turk to go down with an injury just so we can find out. fingers crossed that doesn't happen though.

[Neon1]

Still not convinced with what to do with Hedo.

While I do like the guy I do think if we are paying Rashard so much we should be trying to get the maximum we can from him, and I do think that means going with him at the SF. And while Hedo would be a good 6th man; what it would cost us and the fact that towards what prob would be a 5 year deal [as theif suggests in another thread] it just wouldnt be worth it.

i'm not a fan of this argument. i know what you're saying, and this is an extreme example, but that's like NY saying "heck, we're paying Marbs all this money, let's just build the team around him".

there has to come a point where you know what you're going to get out of a player, regardless of how much you paid them. i don't think we can get THAT much more out of Shard. 5ppg more, sure, but that's about it. he already hits at a decent clip, his rpg and apg are comparable to other years. the things we know about him are that he's not a leader, nor a floor manager. if we ship Hedo out, Shard will not be filling those deficiencies.

i think we should just accept that we overpaid for Shard, but that's no reason to try and force him to be worth that contract. not if it'll put us at risk of not being as good. but, with that in mind, we really haven't had any opportunity to see if Shard can carry this team or not. sadly i think we kind of need Turk to go down with an injury just so we can find out. fingers crossed that doesn't happen though.

Not even that much more. Rashard did not really have a down year, he averaged 2 les PPG than the norm his last few years.

Rashard never has been a TMac chuck up a million shots until i get 25-30 type of guy. He averages 20ppg because he plays 39-40 minutes a game every year. He had one 22ppg season in his contract year.

Same as guys like Antione Walker, Steve Francis, Stephon Marbury etc They averaged around barely 19-20ppg because they played the ENTIRE GAME. Big time scorers dont need 40 mpg to barely get to 20.

Rashard IS NOT a main option type of guy, its not his make up. He isnt comfortable jacking up a ton of shots, he only gets his points through the offense. He is not a create something out of nothing guy.

He is playing the role he is comfortable in and the role that helps the Orlando Magic have the best chance at winning in.

Whats best for the team is that he stay at PF and kill slow unskilled PF's and keep them away from Dwight. When this gets taken away Dwight will be exposed for not having any real offensive game and makes him much less effective through opposing double teams dropping on him, in turn...that makes the Orlando Magic as a whole much less effective...ie welcome back to 42-40.

[SS_MagicMark]

We should try, but I can't see any reason why he'd sign for what we could offer right now. Better to wait until the 10.5%-over-current rule goes out the window.