Boston in the 2nd round. How do the 76ers win the series?

[Ferry Avenue]

The answer to the question posed in the thread title is to simply play with the drive and determination they had last night. Something was unlocked for this team either in game 4 or in the two days between games 4 and 5. What we saw last night was a team with entirely different character than usual.

[mjkvol]

Celts say this series could be like Bucks last season where they trailed 2-3 to win it.

It could be.

But looking at how the games went, Mil was leading early on with a 2-1 lead. Then Celts had the extra gear and won the next 2 games. Then Mil eventually collapse at g7.

If you’re gonna compare the flow, we’re more like the Celts on that series. I thought we should have blown them out last game. We already were showing signs of breakout but it was minimized by the refs. Then this game was just a pure breakout.

personally, i think its not comparable and the next 2 games is up in the air.

I don't think it's really comparable to the BOS-MIL series. The Bucks never exposed them the way we did in games 4 and 5. Short of a dumb implosion, this is two blowouts in a row, and not because of anything the Celtics did differently, but of our group finally showing up with Embiid back in game shape.

We can get offense from so many disparate places - the P&R, Embiid in the post, Maxey spamming 3's and driving to the rim efficiently, Harden going off, or even guys like Harris, Melton, and even Tucker chipping in.

The Celtics can do two things - spam 3's or iso with Tatum/Brown. We know this and with Embiid back the iso game has been shut down, so it's just spamming 3's. Unless they lose their minds from 3, like they did against ATL, their offense stagnates, especially if we don't turn the ball over and gift them transition points.

After the 1st quarter on Monday, I turned to my wife and said "this is over on Thursday". I think the lights went on for this team when Harden hit that 3 on Saturday.

[Ferry Avenue]

I wouldn't get too crazy thinking this series is a lock at this point. Variation of the kind seen last night in roughly evenly-matched series like these is most often determined by single-game swells or lulls in emotional factors -- for example heightened drivenness by the Sixers yesterday, coupled with relative complacency by Boston. Boston will come out firing Thursday and this will be an all out war that could go either way.

There are no personnel or "Xs and Os" explanations for how these second round and beyond series go that can reliably predict the outcome of single games within them -- the teams are too evenly-matched physically to permit that. Right now Boston is favored by two points Thursday. If there were personnel or Xs and Os explanations that could reliably predict the outcome of Thursday's game in the Sixers' favor, you can bet Vegas would be well aware of them and the Sixers would be significant favorites.

[mjkvol]

I wouldn't get too crazy thinking this series is a lock at this point. Variation of the kind seen last night in roughly evenly-matched series like these is most often determined by single-game swells or lulls in emotional factors -- for example heightened drivenness by the Sixers yesterday, coupled with relative complacency by Boston. Boston will come out firing Thursday and this will be an all out war that could go either way.

There are no personnel or "Xs and Os" explanations for how these second round and beyond series go that can reliably predict the outcome of single games within them -- the teams are too evenly-matched physically to permit that. Right now Boston is favored by two points Thursday. If there were personnel or Xs and Os explanations that could reliably predict the outcome of Thursday's game in the Sixers' favor, you can bet Vegas would be well aware of them and the Sixers would be significant favorites.

You are so absolutely full of it. I hate replying to trollish gobbledygook like this, but if you seriously believe that "heightened drivenness ", whatever the hell that even is, explains the game 4 and 5 wins, you're completely delusional.

It's very simple, and has little to do with anyone's momentary emotional changes. The Sixers exposed the Celtics as a limited offensive team that they have the means to slow down, and they discovered that the Celtics are unable to stop them if they don't beat themselves. The realization that they are better than this team is what provided the confidence.

That confidence comes from talent, personnel, and scheme, not some kind of mysterious magical "emotional" feeling of the moment. If Boston wins tomorrow, it will be because they spammed 3's and executed defensively, not because they somehow "want it more".

You can't reliably predict games only because teams still have to execute - make shots, don't turn it over, rotate properly on defense, etc. There are no guarantees, but whoever wins tomorrow will have made the proper adjustments, executed their plan, and played more efficiently, period.

The really annoying thing about you is that you take things - desire, will to win, effort, etc. - that are certainly essential to possess in any sporting event, but then inflate them to a ridiculous extreme and hammer away like a broken record over and over again to the point that you come off as a trollish clown.

[Ferry Avenue]

Single games between roughly evenly-matched teams can't be reliably predicted on the basis of any variable(s), physical or emotional, but if things as tangible as personnel, matchups, or schemes made the Sixers highly likely to win, certainly they'd be favorites and not underdogs. Vegas certainly isn't functioning in the dark, unaware of tangible differences between teams. Otherwise the light bill out there wouldn't have been paid during the past 50 years of sportsbook betting.

[the_process]

Single games between roughly evenly-matched teams can't be reliably predicted on the basis of any variable(s), physical or emotional, but if things as tangible as personnel, matchups, or schemes made the Sixers highly likely to win, certainly they'd be favorites and not underdogs. Vegas certainly isn't functioning in the dark, unaware of tangible differences between teams. Otherwise the light bill out there wouldn't have been paid during the past 50 years of sportsbook betting.

Vegas also isn't functioning in a vacuum though. Boston, when good, will usually have more money on them than against.

[AI_Efficiency]

Single games between roughly evenly-matched teams can't be reliably predicted on the basis of any variable(s), physical or emotional, but if things as tangible as personnel, matchups, or schemes made the Sixers highly likely to win, certainly they'd be favorites and not underdogs. Vegas certainly isn't functioning in the dark, unaware of tangible differences between teams. Otherwise the light bill out there wouldn't have been paid during the past 50 years of sportsbook betting.

Vegas also isn't functioning in a vacuum though. Boston, when good, will usually have more money on them than against.

Yea, I’m not gonna wade into the emotional / mental aspect, but even if you think Vegas skews a tad toward the Celtics, the odds still show this is far from a guarantee. It wouldn’t be shocking at all if they beat us twice in a row. I still think we’re probably something like 70% odds to advance, but 30% chance things happen all the time and no one is surprised when they do.

[76ciology]

Jayson Tatum on pull up 3 pointers:
19-20: 40% on 310 attempts
20-21: 36% on 345 attempts
21-22: 33% on 382 attempts
22-23: 29% on 355 attemps

[Jailblazers7]

Jayson Tatum on pull up 3 pointers:
19-20: 40% on 310 attempts
20-21: 36% on 345 attempts
21-22: 33% on 382 attempts
22-23: 29% on 355 attemps

Fascinating stat & really starts to explain his struggles. He’s become a much better playmaker but his shooting is really holding him back.

[the_process]

Single games between roughly evenly-matched teams can't be reliably predicted on the basis of any variable(s), physical or emotional, but if things as tangible as personnel, matchups, or schemes made the Sixers highly likely to win, certainly they'd be favorites and not underdogs. Vegas certainly isn't functioning in the dark, unaware of tangible differences between teams. Otherwise the light bill out there wouldn't have been paid during the past 50 years of sportsbook betting.

Vegas also isn't functioning in a vacuum though. Boston, when good, will usually have more money on them than against.

Yea, I’m not gonna wade into the emotional / mental aspect, but even if you think Vegas skews a tad toward the Celtics, the odds still show this is far from a guarantee. It wouldn’t be shocking at all if they beat us twice in a row. I still think we’re probably something like 70% odds to advance, but 30% chance things happen all the time and no one is surprised when they do.

I agree this is far from a guarantee. I'm on the Mik end of the spectrum.

[Ferry Avenue]

Single games between roughly evenly-matched teams can't be reliably predicted on the basis of any variable(s), physical or emotional, but if things as tangible as personnel, matchups, or schemes made the Sixers highly likely to win, certainly they'd be favorites and not underdogs. Vegas certainly isn't functioning in the dark, unaware of tangible differences between teams. Otherwise the light bill out there wouldn't have been paid during the past 50 years of sportsbook betting.

Vegas also isn't functioning in a vacuum though. Boston, when good, will usually have more money on them than against.

The opening Vegas line reflects a data-determined difference between teams on the basis of tangible factors and home-court advantage, whereas the closing line reflects the impact of betting, as noted above. If Boston is getting more money put on them, then the opening line would move toward the Sixers and the point spread would diminish if not outright flip, as Vegas attempts to prompt even betting on both teams.

Again the opening line however is your most accurate representation of the difference between teams as a function of tangible factors and home-court advantage. Vegas is literally in the business of having that be the best predicted outcome of the game.

[the_process]

Single games between roughly evenly-matched teams can't be reliably predicted on the basis of any variable(s), physical or emotional, but if things as tangible as personnel, matchups, or schemes made the Sixers highly likely to win, certainly they'd be favorites and not underdogs. Vegas certainly isn't functioning in the dark, unaware of tangible differences between teams. Otherwise the light bill out there wouldn't have been paid during the past 50 years of sportsbook betting.

Vegas also isn't functioning in a vacuum though. Boston, when good, will usually have more money on them than against.

The opening Vegas line reflects a data-determined difference between teams on the basis of tangible factors and home-court advantage, whereas the closing line reflects the impact of betting, as noted above. If Boston is getting more money put on them, then the opening line would move toward the Sixers and the point spread would diminish if not outright flip, as Vegas attempts to prompt even betting on both teams.

Again the opening line however is your most accurate representation of the difference between teams as a function of tangible factors and home-court advantage. Vegas is literally in the business of having that be the best predicted outcome of the game.

Yes, but they also want the bets to be as close to 50/50 as possible.

[Ferry Avenue]

After Maxey's two clear path free throws with just under 6 minutes remaining, the Sixers were up 83-81 and were then outscored 14 to 3.

That rate of scoring extrapolates to a game in which the final score is 112 to 24. Obviously an utter collapse.

If this team doesn't address its unreliability in producing points in the clutch against the best teams in the league -- who will almost always have closers who can do so -- it'll be very unlikely to advance beyond its typical second-round exit.

Jimmy Butler would've been just what the doctor ordered last night.

[Negrodamus]

Down the stretch in the 4th quarter of the OT game:

2:26 James Harden makes 20-foot pullup jump shot BOS 102 PHI 100
1:50 James Harden makes two point shot BOS 105 PHI 102
16.1 James Harden makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot BOS 107 PHI 107

If only we had a guy like James Harden down the stretch to generate points. He would have been just what the doctor ordered last night.

Sometimes guys have bad nights, jfc.

[Eyeamok]

This team has two bites at the apple. The first bite they whiffed on. They still have a second chance. At the start of the series I would have said winning in Boston is near to impossible. But the 76ers have done it twice already. No reason why they can't do it a 3rd time. People will say the Celtics will be locked in. But they have been for most of the series and the 76ers have dealt with it. That is why the series is tied. The Celtics have shown their hand, starting Robert Williams, they are out of new moves. There is nothing innovative and new they can throw at the 76ers. The question is can we get a locked in Embiid and Harden for the entire game?

But if the 76ers lose a coaching change, for the better, has to be made.

And let me just add it gives me great joy to see the absolute look of disbelief and heartache on the face of Boston fans as their team loses. I have seen it twice this playoffs and would love to see it again on Sunday.

[76ciology]

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[mjkvol]

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This is exactly why I would sell out to defend the 3 pt. line, even at the cost of some layups. They only go on runs when they're fueled by a string of 3's, so stay home on defense, take away the drive and kick and make them settle for tough 2's.

If Brogdon, White, and Smart are continuously left wide open as a result of doubling, they win today. Horford should be the only guy ever getting an open look from 3. If he goes off, then it is what it is.

[phillynative]

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This is exactly why I would sell out to defend the 3 pt. line, even at the cost of some layups. They only go on runs when they're fueled by a string of 3's, so stay home on defense, take away the drive and kick and make them settle for tough 2's.

If Brogdon, White, and Smart are continuously left wide open as a result of doubling, they win today. Horford should be the only guy ever getting an open look from 3. If he goes off, then it is what it is.

I agree , I wouldnt mind Embiid and the sixers giving up a few more layups just to contest more 3's to prevent the chance of them getting hot. I also would think about going small and replacing Tucker in the lineup with Melton very early on. The celtics 2 big lineup was successful because the paint was crowded and Tucker wasn't guarded. It's a risk with rebounding but you get out on shooters quicker and on the other end of the floor its more spaced as Melton is the better shooter. Guys have to knock down their shots though.

[mjkvol]

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This is exactly why I would sell out to defend the 3 pt. line, even at the cost of some layups. They only go on runs when they're fueled by a string of 3's, so stay home on defense, take away the drive and kick and make them settle for tough 2's.

If Brogdon, White, and Smart are continuously left wide open as a result of doubling, they win today. Horford should be the only guy ever getting an open look from 3. If he goes off, then it is what it is.

I agree , I wouldnt mind Embiid and the sixers giving up a few more layups just to contest more 3's to prevent the chance of them getting hot. I also would think about going small and replacing Tucker in the lineup with Melton very early on. The celtics 2 big lineup was successful because the paint was crowded and Tucker wasn't guarded. It's a risk with rebounding but you get out on shooters quicker and on the other end of the floor its more spaced as Melton is the better shooter. Guys have to knock down their shots though.

Totally agree, but Embiid, Harris, and the guards need to hit the defensive boards. I seriously believe that the only ways they can beat us are spamming 3's or multiple second chance opportunities. Tatum going for a big number is meaningless if they aren't getting on those crazy runs.

And Glenn, for crying out loud, call a damn time out before those runs become 10-0, 14-0.

[phillynative]

This is exactly why I would sell out to defend the 3 pt. line, even at the cost of some layups. They only go on runs when they're fueled by a string of 3's, so stay home on defense, take away the drive and kick and make them settle for tough 2's.

If Brogdon, White, and Smart are continuously left wide open as a result of doubling, they win today. Horford should be the only guy ever getting an open look from 3. If he goes off, then it is what it is.

I agree , I wouldnt mind Embiid and the sixers giving up a few more layups just to contest more 3's to prevent the chance of them getting hot. I also would think about going small and replacing Tucker in the lineup with Melton very early on. The celtics 2 big lineup was successful because the paint was crowded and Tucker wasn't guarded. It's a risk with rebounding but you get out on shooters quicker and on the other end of the floor its more spaced as Melton is the better shooter. Guys have to knock down their shots though.

Totally agree, but Embiid, Harris, and the guards need to hit the defensive boards. I seriously believe that the only ways they can beat us are spamming 3's or multiple second chance opportunities. Tatum going for a big number is meaningless if they aren't getting on those crazy runs.

And Glenn, for crying out loud, call a damn time out before those runs become 10-0, 14-0.

Exactly , I'm more afraid of them collectively getting hot from 3 than Tatum going off if we are are keeping the game close. The celtics have multiple players that can penetrate the paint and kick out to shooters. House and Melton are quicker defenders and offensively will have to knock down 3s or slash and kick out to keep the ball moving. Speaking of keeping the ball moving , Harden can't hold on to the ball if he's not scoring it disrupts the offense. If we play smaller keeping the ball moving should keep the celtics bigger lineup on its heels.