Tank Watch 2025

[76thBearCub]

Guna be a long wait

[FlyingArrow]

Guna be a long wait

Yes.

And as we just learned in the probability lesson - the past is irrelevant. Even after we have waited a month, since the past history doesn't matter, we will still have to wait just as long as ever. Someone check my math, but I think that means we will be waiting forever.

Math is weird.

[sixers hoops]

I'm sure one of the local journalists will come up with it, but I'd like to know how often two or more teams below 5 jump in the lottery in the same year. There's not much data with the new flattened odds, though.

Teams from outside the top 5 to win the lottery are:

2019
-Pels from 7 to 1
-Grizzlies from 8 to 2
-Lakers from 11 to 3

*Atl with 5th odds picked 8.

2020
-Charlotte from 8 to 3
-Chicago from 7 to 4

*Det with 5th odds picked 7.

2021
-Cavs from 5 to 3
-Raps from 7 to 4

*Cavs with the 5th odds picked 3.

2022
-Sac from 7 to 4

*Ind with the 5th odds picked 6.

2023
-Blazers from 5 to 3

*Port with 5th odds picked 3.

2024
-Hawks from 10 to 1
-Brooklyn from 9 to 3
-Spurs from 5 to 4

*Spurs with 5th odds picked 4.

In 2019, 2020, and 2024, the scenario you specified occurred, but the Spurs also won and moved up in 2024. The Sixers would have kept their pick in 4 of the 6 drafts.

We can just trust the odds and know that it happens about 1/3 of the time. Doesn’t matter what’s happened in the past, don’t wanna do no Monte Carlo fallacy-ing.

Yep, past outcomes are irrelevant, but I’m sure we are going to discuss a lot of meaningless stuff with a month between now and figuring out if we have a pick. I’ll do some YouTube scouting to get my top 6 big board, but other than that we are in a dead spot for the next month.