2009 Free Agency

[Wilfried]

Anyone an idea of which players are available in 2009 and can help this team. Because there's a possibility we're not going to get a big FA acquisition this season and we're keeping our cap space.

Problem is that in 2009, Iguodala's contract is counted at the cap (+ Lou's), so we probably won't have as much room as we have now. Plus Miller has to be resigned too.

I know Iverson, Kidd and Marbury are FA's in 2009, but we don't need those guys.

[The Guilty Party]

Lamar Odom. He'll be 30 and the Lakers might not be willing to pay him so there's your big splash next summer which means you can forget about free agents.

If we do not use it this summer, the space will probably be used in a trade either during the season or the following summer. I highly doubt we get to that point though.

[tk76]

The numbers are fluid, but we would have about 10M in 2009- but only if we let Miller's contract expire.

[The Guilty Party]

Well, we would only have $10MIL if we used the $11MIL we have available this summer. Otherwise I believe we would be close to $20MIL but there isn't any worth going after unfortunately.

[Skates]

Well, we would only have $10MIL if we used the $11MIL we have available this summer. Otherwise I believe we would be close to $20MIL but there isn't any worth going after unfortunately.

Depends on if some of the RFA's this year only sign qualifying offers and become UFA's in 2009. Considering the current slate of UFA's for 2009 it might not be a bad time for one or two of those guys to hit the market, when demand is high and supply is low.

RFA's in 2009 are not likely to be available or enticing. 2005 was a fairly weak draft other than Deron Williams and Chris Paul who will get locked up to max deals if they aren't already.

[The Guilty Party]

The only RFA that I can see signing the one year tender is Ben Gordon and I have no interest in paying him next season. I highly doubt that Okafor, Smith, or Deng sign a 1 year deal and frankly, I also have little interest in Deng.

Either way, a lot can change. Some All-Star caliber player could somehow become unhappy in their current situation and demand a trade or perhaps a team that is good this year becomes terrible next year and looks to unload a star. I'm not banking on that though.

[tk76]

Well, we would only have $10MIL if we used the $11MIL we have available this summer. Otherwise I believe we would be close to $20MIL but there isn't any worth going after unfortunately.

Not really. Sorry, left out that bit- it gets complicated...

If we sign Iguodala to 11M and Lou to 4M starting in '08, the will make a combined 17M in '09 (after yearly raises.) That is a lot more than the combined 10M in cap hold they account for this summer, so it eats into the 1009 number. you end up with somewhere around 15M in '09 if you hold onto your '08 money(depends on what Dala and Lou are making and what the cap is set at.)

15M is really huge, because that is only the first year salary. With yearly 10% max raises that can turn into a mega contract (like 5yr/92M)

[Skates]

The only RFA that I can see signing the one year tender is Ben Gordon and I have no interest in paying him next season. I highly doubt that Okafor, Smith, or Deng sign a 1 year deal and frankly, I also have little interest in Deng.

Either way, a lot can change. Some All-Star caliber player could somehow become unhappy in their current situation and demand a trade or perhaps a team that is good this year becomes terrible next year and looks to unload a star. I'm not banking on that though.

I think Deng and Okafor may already regret not signing long term last summer, especially with Deng having a tough year with injuries. Gordon should regret it since he would have been overpaid from what I heard of the proposed contract terms he rejected, but I don't think he understands that he is not a franchise player. Definitely agree that he may be the guy that signs a qualifying offer to become unrestricted next year. OTOH, I do expect a couple of RFA's to change teams this summer in sign and trade deals, hopefully including one where Biedrins heads to the Sixers.

[tk76]

Biedrins would be interesting, but it would slow/mistime our rebuild. We would not be contenders in the East while Miller is still an impact player. By the time Thad and Biedrins are impact players Miller will be 34 (but otherwise we would be in great shape for 5 years.)

If instead, we get a more established PF we could contend (in the East) right away, and then as Miller is phased out of the rotation Thad and Lou will be hitting their prime.

[freshie2]

Agree that a player like Brand puts them in contention sooner, but I'm not sure he's obtainable, and I'm not sure they can reach contention without him while Miller is still playing at a high level. Some tough decisions this off season.

[tk76]

Its not such a bad thing. I think we can thank Miller for this team being ahead of schedule. It is a shame that he probably will be well past his prime when the rest of the team peaks, but we still will be in great shape when he leaves 9and maybe be able to use his 10M to replace him with a younger pg like Calderon.)

[The Guilty Party]

I've done some more research and here's the good news; there is a chance for the free agent class of 2009 to have a lot of big name players....

Artest (Unrestricted Free Agent)
Bibby (UFA)
Bogut (Restricted Free Agent)
Boozer (Player Option)
Brand (UFA)
Bryant (P/O)
Bynam (RFA)
Diogu (RFA)
Felton (RFA)
Frye (RFA)
Gooden (UFA)
Iverson (UFA)
Kidd (UFA)
Lee (RFA)
Marion (UFA)
Maxiell (RFA)
Odom (UFA)
Okur (P/O)
Paul (RFA)
Villanueva (RFA)
R. Wallace (UFA)
Warrick (RFA)
Wilcox (UFA)
D. Williams (RFA)
M. Williams (RFA)

That's the good news. The bad news is that next year it won't be just us and Memphis with cap space since there are so many large expiring contracts. My guess is that will probably be another 5 teams with significant cap space which means that in order for to get a free agent to sign here will be a bit harder.

When I look at the free agent list above, I figure that a fair number of the RFAs (Paul, D. Williams, Bogut, Felton, Bynum) will sign extensions this summer. I also doubt that Kobe opts-out given his salary and the way things are now going in LA.

As for the rest of the list, Odom and Brand will both be 30 years old and so I'm not sure that I'd want to give them a 5 year deal. Brand maybe... Odom, no. Kidd, Iverson, Bibby either don't fit here or won't come here. So what I really see in that list is Carlos Boozer, Shawn Marion, Rasheed Wallace and a bunch of guys who are decent players but nothing great. Boozer is scheduled to make $12MIL that year so I think there's a great chance he opts-out and as he's shown in the past, the man has no loyalty to stay with a team if there's more money to be had.

That's all I got.

[barkley34]

Because there's a possibility we're not going to get a big FA acquisition this season and we're keeping our cap space.

I see almost no chance of that happening. Even if we don't use it on a free agent I can't imagine Ed not using that space to make a trade.

[tk76]

There is a scenario where we end up waiting for Summer '09 to make our move. It involves a bit of a waiting game.

Assuming we don't find our big target this summer, we could do what Seattle did with their cap space. They found a team over the tax (The Suns) and took on a big expiring contract (Kurth Thomas) in exchange for picks.

If we sent a trade exemption for a PJ Brown type vet PF with a big expiring contract we could use him either as a trading piece as a big expiring at the trading deadline, or if we strike out at the deadline, we just let the contract expire so we can be a player in the Summer '09. It would be a win-win situation, and not the worst move if the right long term solution is not available this summer.

I throw out Kurt Thomas and PJ Brown s the type of player. I honestly don't know who would fit the bill.

[The Guilty Party]

Joe Smith is a player who will be expiring and is on a team that is currently facing the tax. Wally Szyzerbiak is another one as well.