Extension Talks In Limbo For Miller

[The Guilty Party]

Will andre Miller become a All-Star this year?

I say no. He's never made an All-Star team before and so now that he's the 3rd option on this team, I doubt he'll get the recognition that he deserved last season. What he does have in his favor is that there could be a couple of openings on the roster. Here are the guards from last year's team:

Jason Kidd (plays in the West)
Dwayne Wade
Ray Allen (Injury replacement for Caron Butler)
Chauncey Billups
Rip Hamilton
Joe Johnson

Kidd obviously won't make it now that he's on the Mavs but I believe Ray Allen and either Chauncey Billips or Rip Hamilton won't make it this year as well. That should mean that there are three guard positions to be filled. One of them will go to Gilbert Arenas if he's healthy and Ray Allen's spot will probably be held by a healthy Caron Butler so that leaves just one opening. I think Miller could be in the running but guys like Calderon, Redd, Turkoglu, TJ Ford, Derrick Rose, and Andre Iguodala will be in the running as well for that final spot hence I think it's unlikely he makes it.

[geiger]

We are also presuming that Miller, who at 32, had a career season last year, will repeat that performance. Maybe he will surprise us and do so or even get better, but odds are long.

[bebopdeluxe]

Well...if we assume that AI won't get $15 million, then it may very well come down to a choice - sign a Magette-like deal (5/50) with a team that has no realistic shot at a ring, or take short money (2/3 years at the MLE) for a chance to win a ring.

And it could turn out that Philly offers him the best shot.

If that is the scenario that he faces, I'm not so sure he takes the $$$. That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying it's "highly likely"...or even "likely"...but I do think it's "possible".

That's all.

[The Guilty Party]

With AI at the point instead of Miller, do you believe the Sixers would (not could) contend for a title? I'm 50-50 on this.

[bebopdeluxe]

TGP:

If you take the Allen Iverson who played for the Nuggets last season (46% shooting from the field, 7.5 apg - primarily as a SG - and almost 2.4-to-1 ast/to ratio) and insert him as the PG of the Sixers for a full season, it is hard to imagine there not being an upgrade over Miller...especially when you consider that the earliest this can happen is next season (when Miller will - who I thought showed signs of fatigue in the Detroit series - be 34 years old by the time that the playoffs roll around).

While he is not the pure outside shooter that I would like to see opposite Iguodala, there is no question that he will create space on the floor - particularly with a low-post threat the caliber of Brand out there as well. Obviously, AI is not the greatest defender, but it's not like anybody will be confusing Miller for Gary Payton any time soon. Iguodala has the mentality where he can also play on top with the ball, allowing AI to occasionally play off the ball, which would add a dimension to the offense that Miller only added with his post-up game (which will be less necessary with Brand here). Iguodala should get more space on the floor, which - given his current tool-box - should help his ability to score from the outside and take it to the rack.

My desire to add AI is primarily because of that - Iggy's shortcomings as a prototype offensive SG...if he can take the next step with his game, then adding AI may not be necessary...which is why I would much rather just let Miller play out the year and see how he does. And there is always still the possibility of a trade-deadline deal (for Hinrich, for example) that could solve our PG issues as well.

[geiger]

How will we get AI? It's a bit of a fantasy that he would return to Philly for the MLE. Taking Iverson's shortcomigns as PG aside, I don't believe he is an attainable option. There will a number of teams under the cap and his own team might want to keep him and pay him over the MLE. There will also be plenty of teams as good or better than the Sixers who will offer AI same or more money. Can't anything greater than a 5% chance of him coming to Philly next season for the MLE and even that is being generous. It's not impossible obviously, but it's just not very realistic right now. Things could change, but today, I'm not sure if his coming back here is anything more than a pipe dream.

[bebopdeluxe]

Geiger:

Who are the teams that will be as good as we are or better who will have more money to offer AI than us next summer?

Eastern Conference:

Boston - I doubt it with Rondo there...
Cleveland - Just got Mo Williams...
Detroit - Would Dumars view AI as an upgrade over Billups?
Washington - Arenas just signed a HUGE contract...they won't have cap room...
Orlando - A possibility, I guess...will they have cap room?

Western Conference -

LA Lakers - I guess he could sign the MLE there...they can't offer more...
Utah - nope
New Orleans - nope
San Antonio - nope
Portland - If Miles doesn't play, they might have cap room...but they have a LOT of young PG prospects...
Houston - I doubt they have cap room...

So...who are the "plenty of teams" who will be "as good or better" than the Sixers who 1) will have the cap room to make a significantly bigger offer than the MLE next season, and 2) where AI would be their final piece of the puzzle?

I do think that there might be a less-than-serious contender who could offer him more, but he might as well just stay in Denver if that is the case (although I wouldn't bet on that happening, based on the JR Smith signing and Karl's insistence that AI not play PG), and why wouldn't those teams just sit on their cap room for another year to take a shot at the motherlode in 2010? I think that - at the end of the day - AI will have three options: 1) sign a Maggette-like deal with a team that has no realistic shot at a ring; 2) go overseas for MASSIVE money (if Childress can get $7 mil after tax, what can AI get?); or 3) sign with a team like the Sixers or Lakers for the MLE to take a shot at a ring.

But if you can provide the names of the "number of teams" that you referred to above, I would be happy to read it.

[Philly KDub]

having AI with us was very nice but i wouldn't want him back. he would mess up with what we have. we got a nice team going on....the last thing we need is to bring a shoot first PG who doesn't know how to win.

[bebopdeluxe]

KDubbz:

Umm...do you know AI's stats from last season?

Shot the ball significantly less (19/game versus 25/game with the Sixers). Highest FG% of his career - by far. Best AST/TO ratio of his career, and 7.5 ast/game from the SG position.

While I would prefer something like trading Miller for Hinrich at the trade deadline, if I have to choose between a 3-year extension for Miller this summer and signing AI for the MLE (if he would accept it ), that is a no-brainer for me. The price/value is simply hard to ignore...particularly if we get the AI that played for Denver last season.

[geiger]

Bebop, you can't start with a false argument and then defend it. Even with Miles on the books, Portland is going to have enough cap space for almost two full max contracts next season. Teams that can offer the full MLE and make more sense than the Sixers would include Lakers and their huge market and Knicks and a market where AI can make up the money short fall in endorsements. There is Miami with cap space next season and no state income tax and he and Wade fit great together. There is Orlando with no state income tax. There is Houston, Dallas and San Antonio with no state income tax. There is Toronto and $8 million of cap room. There is the Pistons, who could trade Rip and play AI at SG, there is Cleveland, who can make a trade to free up room for AI and let him play next to LeBron, there is Denver where he puts fans in the seats who can pay him whatever they want. There is the Boston Celtics. In short, there will be some teams that can offer a lot more money - either in pure salary or because of tax implications or market size, and more that might be better fits for him if he wants to win. We're not the only pony in town.

[Philly KDub]

Bebop....yes i do know AI's stats from last season. It was impressive, i must say but i can't see AI fitting in our plan. yes i do love AI's game but he will always be a shoot-first PG. hes more of a SG than a PG. we can't have a guy like him on our team....thats not what we need. yes he shot the ball less and had more assists last year but that doesn't make him a true PG.

we would be best off trading miller while his value is high. i can see his value at the highest when the deadline is near if he plays well. we could get a young PG in return

[geiger]

Miller might be able to get us a young PG in return, but not a young PG who can give this team more than AI. In fact, many teams win championships with shoot first PGs or without a true PG period - the Lakers were one - Ron Harper? Derrick Fisher? The Bulls with Paxon and BJ Armstrong and Ron Harper? Houston had Kenny the Jet on the downside of his career and his 5 assists a game. Even San Antonio won a couple before Parker became a legit PG. It's doable and AI is certainly a guy capable of reigning in his game by the time he's 34 to try to win a title and take care of the ball a little better, pass a bit more and shoot a bit less. He's already done some of that in Denver. That being said, it seems entirely unreasonable that we get AI to come back here. He simply can get a lot more money at a number of other places and have as good or a better shot of winning it all. With all the baggage he left behind here, I'm not sure that either party is dying for a reunion anyway.

[docwasoverated]

With AI at the point instead of Miller, do you believe the Sixers would (not could) contend for a title? I'm 50-50 on this.

iverson would rip up the league with this group. rip it up!! who was the best 6er he played with? coleman..mckie...snow...compared to brand,sam,iggy..he would be like a kid on christmas day..a happy happy kid with many options to choose from

[Philly KDub]

Miller might be able to get us a young PG in return, but not a young PG who can give this team more than AI. In fact, many teams win championships with shoot first PGs or without a true PG period - the Lakers were one - Ron Harper? Derrick Fisher? The Bulls with Paxon and BJ Armstrong and Ron Harper? Houston had Kenny the Jet on the downside of his career and his 5 assists a game. Even San Antonio won a couple before Parker became a legit PG. It's doable and AI is certainly a guy capable of reigning in his game by the time he's 34 to try to win a title and take care of the ball a little better, pass a bit more and shoot a bit less. He's already done some of that in Denver. That being said, it seems entirely unreasonable that we get AI to come back here. He simply can get a lot more money at a number of other places and have as good or a better shot of winning it all. With all the baggage he left behind here, I'm not sure that either party is dying for a reunion anyway.

you made a good point there, geiger but i truly believe if you want this to work, you will need a borderline all-star or all-star SG (ala Michael Redd & Manu Ginboli) who can shoot and drive to give AI more space to make plays for others and let him create his own offense. the lakers had kobe, the bulls had jordan, houston had drexler at that time if im not mistaken, and spurs had ginobili. if iggy can all of a sudden turn into that kind of SG by being able to shoot then great but i dont see that happening

[geiger]

Michael Redd is not a championship quality SG. He plays no defense.

Most of the guys you mentioned were or are star players, but out of them, only Ginobilli can be considered a good three point shooter. Jordan, Drexler, Kobe - none of those guys were/are great three point shooters. The point guards on those teams were the guys shooting the 3's. What those guys were/are great defensive and offensive players who could also handle the ball in the half court offense and get the PGs wide open shots from 3. Iggy does need to improve his 3 point shooting, but not by as much as you think - maybe just 3% points or so. His defense is stellar. What he does need to do is improve his ball handling and passing, which is doable because he already has good athleticism and fundamentals, and learn how to drive and kick a little better - which he might already know how to do - we can't tell since there is no one for him to drive and kick to right now. Even Ginobilli, who happens to be a good 3 point shooter, a skill it took several years for him to develop while playing with Duncan and getting a lot of open looks, is also a good ball handler who can sometimes play PG and a good defensive player.

[bebopdeluxe]

geiger:

If it is all about the money for AI, then he ain't coming back here. I get that. If he is going to decide to play with a Texas team because they have no state income tax, then we have no shot. However, many of the teams you mentioned either 1) really do not need him; 2) are teams where his game does not fit as well as it could potentially fit; 3) are teams where he would be a lower impact player than he has been historically (and while I think he might be ready to take less $$$ to win a ring, I don't think he's ready to do a Payton/Malone and be a 3rd/4th wheel to be on a title winner.

I think that you did isolate some teams where it could be a fit (particularly Miami)...but we'll just have to wait and see how things play out this season first...some of the teams that could be destinations for him (like Miami or Portland) have young PG prospects that could change their respective team's appetites for AI if they play well.

[corwin]

I haven't weighed in on this before but I do agree with bebop's last post. His main point being that if it's about the money, than AI is not coming home. Of course, we can only speculate on AI's motivations. However, he just turned 33 so that at the end of next summer he'll be 34 years old. He's made a ton of money already & could very well want to finish where he started & to finish what he started here. If he signed for MLE that would be recognized by the fans & the city& he'd be even more popular than he is today. The team could fit him in since another guard is needed IMO. If Miller is re-signed (as I expect) there'd be a 4 guard rotation of Miller, Lou, AI, & Iguodala (who will probably spend significant minutes at SF over the next 2/3 seasons). If Miller is not re-signed, I'd expect Philly to go after a guy like Hinrich or Watson & picks in trade so that the team doesn't lose a rotation player when Miller expires. That guard, AI, Lou & Iguodala would also be a strong rotation. AI could play the point on this team. If AI wants to finish on a contender, there aren't too many teams better positioned in the next 3/4 years than this one.

[freshie2]

With AI at the point instead of Miller, do you believe the Sixers would (not could) contend for a title? I'm 50-50 on this.

iverson would rip up the league with this group. rip it up!! who was the best 6er he played with? coleman..mckie...snow...compared to brand,sam,iggy..he would be like a kid on christmas day..a happy happy kid with many options to choose from

It's not about Iverson ripping it up...that's why he should have been moved years before it actually happened. It would be about him being a good fit with the team. He's had a great individual career, but too often, Iverson supporters love to see him 'rip it up' and lose sight of team success. I completely agree that he's starting to get it and maturing a bit (shocking it took him this long), and if he comes to town for the MLE, it would be tough to pass up, but he has to be the new version of AI and not the 20+ FGA/Game player. I don't see it happening, although @ 33/34, he may be a MLE player for his next contract.

[geiger]

Corwin, one thing you can absolutely, 100% forget about is Sixers re-signing Miller AND signing Iverson. Who is going to the bench? Will they move Iggy back to SF and go with a smallish rotation of Miller, Iverson and Iggy on the wings? What will happen to development of Thad Young and Lou Williams. I just can't believe that would happen or that AI would not only take a lot less money, but also except a lot smaller of a role. And if Miller leaves, he not only would have to take less money to come here, and we're talking $30 to $40 million less here, but he also could go to teams that are more likely to win than the Sixers and who could provide him with more endorsement opportunities. He and Kobe are friends and can you imagine that team in LA with Iverson and Kobe, to go along with Bynum and Gasol on the blocks?