Welcome Luwawu

[76ers]

One of the recurring errors/design flaws of the sixers' recent player development strategy has been expecting too much from young players who then struggle to fulfill expectations. I like TLC, but I'm thinking it'll be a few years before we should count on him for big minutes.

Eh, TLC isn't a teenager, though. He's already 21 and was a 30 mpg player in the Adriatic League this year. He's been in a professional enviroment for 4 years now.

I expect Stauskas to start at the SG spot, early on. I want all the developmental minutes possible for TLC, though. He should be playing 20+ minutes on a nightly basis.

Do you still envision Stauskas starting at SG now? He was pretty underwhelming in the SL games I saw. I wouldn't be surprised to see him cut eventually at this point.

[tk76]

I can see Stauskas being cut... but I also would not read too much into 2 summer league games.

Luwawu works because he has the shooting/athleticism to earn minutes as a limited 3&D guy initially- especially with the team's abundance of ball handlers/passers. And then hopefully he grows into a more complete player and gets stroger over the next few years.

Even Iggy, who was a complete player in college, assumed a very basic role his rookie year and did not really step into a more complete role until his second season.

[GimmeDat]

I wouldn't stress too much about Luwawu not playing up to par straight away. Valentine's a senior, and for us, he hasn't shot the ball well or looked exceptional out of the gates. It's SL.

Luwawu has been really solid, from what I've seen. He's athletic and has a great NBA body, other than needing to get stronger, which is a general theme amongst rookies. He's shot the ball decently (though today's not his best showing), which is good to see. His more elaborate skills like ball handling aren't refined enough, so he's looked bad when trying to do too much.

He's been better than Stauskas, that's for sure. Man, what a flop he's been.

[Ericb5]

I wouldn't stress too much about Luwawu not playing up to par straight away. Valentine's a senior, and for us, he hasn't shot the ball well or looked exceptional out of the gates. It's SL.

Luwawu has been really solid, from what I've seen. He's athletic and has a great NBA body, other than needing to get stronger, which is a general theme amongst rookies. He's shot the ball decently (though today's not his best showing), which is good to see. His more elaborate skills like ball handling aren't refined enough, so he's looked bad when trying to do too much.

He's been better than Stauskas, that's for sure. Man, what a flop he's been.

So far so good with him.

He was the 24th pick, and not the 4th pick. If he spends half of the season in the Dleague I won't be disappointed or worried.

He is a prospect that might take a couple of years, or he might fail. It will be one or the other. Either way, he won't contribute much this year.


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[BenSimmons4MVP]

Lets go

[phillynative]

Gotta get stronger and tighten those handles

[HartfordWhalers]

I'm not exactly feeling the love atm.

[76ciology]

I'm not exactly feeling the love atm.

Short term, he's average at best 3pt shooter (shot 35% internation & 30% summerleague) and defender (low deflection #s).

[marcush]

He looked okay. Hit a couple of shots, a bit loose with the handle, am hoping the defensive side will come because it will be the difference between getting game time.

I did like that he was able make some cuts and get some layups. It seems such a simple skill but so many players really have no clue about playing without the ball. For a role player like this guy, it's imperative that he doesn't need the ball to make an impact because Simmons and Okafor are going to have a tonne of it in the reg season.

I have learnt over the years that you can't take much from these games, especially trying to use any metrics because the sample size and preparation is so small. So it's fine so far.

[SexDrugsPnR]

I did like that he was able make some cuts and get some layups. It seems such a simple skill but so many players really have no clue about playing without the ball.

This is gonna be key this season with passers like Simmons and Rodriguez. That's also the reason why I think Stauskas deserves one more chance. He actually moves pretty well off the ball.

[phillychuck]

Luwawu is going to have to change his shot release to get any significant burn as a 3 and D guy in the NBA. His release is too low (in front of his head near his forehead) and he has to rush to get it off (and therefore be less accurate), or he has to be more wide open than guys usually are at this level. I was pleased with his athleticism and defense in SL. As others have pointed out, he has to improve his handle and his finishing at the rim to really be a valuable NBA player. D-league, at least for a while.

[jsa]

Shooting guard is a weak spot on the 76ers, but my limited view of Luwawu doesn't inspire me to think he can help, at least for the next year or two. They passed on Murray, Ulis and Brogdon, all of whom seem to have game, and Felder, Niang, Whithead, McCaw who have potential. The Simmons hoopla gave them a free pass on two questionable picks on a weak team with plenty of needs.

[Ericb5]

Shooting guard is a weak spot on the 76ers, but my limited view of Luwawu doesn't inspire me to think he can help, at least for the next year or two. They passed on Murray, Ulis and Brogdon, all of whom seem to have game, and Felder, Niang, Whithead, McCaw who have potential. The Simmons hoopla gave them a free pass on two questionable picks on a weak team with plenty of needs.

I would just expect nothing from him this year. He will either turn into a rotation player or he won't.

He didn't cost much, and he has a shot at making it. Same thing with Korkmaz when he comes over.


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[rzzzzz]

Korkmaz may prove to be the purest shooter out of this year's draft. i understand the stash rationale as he gets more minutes and adds muscle, but i sure want him back and with the team asap.

[Ericb5]

The way that I'm thinking about Luwawu, and Korkmaz is that, since they are first round picks they are expected to be NBA players. Second rounders are expected to not be NBA players so if one turns out to be one of any sort then that is a successful pick.

For these two guys though, I expect them to both be NBA players, and if just one of them can be a top 8 rotation player for the Sixers then I will be happy with the results.

So one of them turns into a 10th man, and one of them turns into a 20 mpg 7th or 8th man then that is good for me. Ultimately, we have our 2017 pick, and the Lakers 2017 pick hopefully that will be better players than these two guys, so it isn't like we NEED them to succeed.

[Agnostifarian]

bump

[HotelVitale]

The way that I'm thinking about Luwawu, and Korkmaz is that, since they are first round picks they are expected to be NBA players. Second rounders are expected to not be NBA players so if one turns out to be one of any sort then that is a successful pick. For these two guys though, I expect them to both be NBA players, and if just one of them can be a top 8 rotation player for the Sixers then I will be happy with the results. So one of them turns into a 10th man, and one of them turns into a 20 mpg 7th or 8th man then that is good for me. Ultimately, we have our 2017 pick, and the Lakers 2017 pick hopefully that will be better players than these two guys, so it isn't like we NEED them to succeed.

IIRC guys drafted from 24-30 actually have like a 40% bust rate. That's defined loosely as guys who don't stick as rotation players after their rook deals, so basically means guys that really weren't useful NBA players at any pt. Not saying that means we should lower expectations for Luwawu, just adding it for what it's worth. (One thing I've learned from years on these boards: ppl always overestimate the average return on a 1st rounder and always underestimate the sheer randomness of draft outcomes.)

[Ericb5]

The way that I'm thinking about Luwawu, and Korkmaz is that, since they are first round picks they are expected to be NBA players. Second rounders are expected to not be NBA players so if one turns out to be one of any sort then that is a successful pick. For these two guys though, I expect them to both be NBA players, and if just one of them can be a top 8 rotation player for the Sixers then I will be happy with the results. So one of them turns into a 10th man, and one of them turns into a 20 mpg 7th or 8th man then that is good for me. Ultimately, we have our 2017 pick, and the Lakers 2017 pick hopefully that will be better players than these two guys, so it isn't like we NEED them to succeed.

IIRC guys drafted from 24-30 actually have like a 40% bust rate. That's defined loosely as guys who don't stick as rotation players after their rook deals, so basically means guys that really weren't useful NBA players at any pt. Not saying that means we should lower expectations for Luwawu, just adding it for what it's worth. (One thing I've learned from years on these boards: ppl always overestimate the average return on a 1st rounder and always underestimate the sheer randomness of draft outcomes.)

That 40% bust rate is higher than I realized, but generally speaking if you draft a guy at 24 and he busts that is clearly a failure, whereas a bust at 44 isn't really a failure per se, it just wasn't a win. A weird distinction, but a valid one. The best talent evaluators miss on picks in the 40's all the time, but rarely miss(as in pure bust) on a pick in the 20's.

Basically, if one of the guys that we picked in the 20's this year becomes a rotation player then I will consider that a win.


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[HotelVitale]

IIRC guys drafted from 24-30 actually have like a 40% bust rate. That's defined loosely as guys who don't stick as rotation players after their rook deals, so basically means guys that really weren't useful NBA players at any pt. Not saying that means we should lower expectations for Luwawu, just adding it for what it's worth. (One thing I've learned from years on these boards: ppl always overestimate the average return on a 1st rounder and always underestimate the sheer randomness of draft outcomes.)

That 40% bust rate is higher than I realized, but generally speaking if you draft a guy at 24 and he busts that is clearly a failure, whereas a bust at 44 isn't really a failure per se, it just wasn't a win. A weird distinction, but a valid one. The best talent evaluators miss on picks in the 40's all the time, but rarely miss(as in pure bust) on a pick in the 20's.

I mean, that's specifically what I was saying isn't true If I'm remembering right, the best evaluators still miss on about 40% of picks in the later 20s, fans just continue to expect more. Hope's fun, and I don't want people to stop thinking that. Just saying that there's clearly a big split between the fan expectation (which is that you're probably getting a ho-hum rotation guy at worst) and what the data says (which is that you're about as likely to get a totally worthless guy (Damion James or Marquis Teague) as a ho-hum rotation guy(Greivis Vasquez or Quincy Pondexter)).

I feel you on the larger pt, though, and I personally would be happy with Luwawu and Korkmaz becoming Iman Shumpert and Mike Dunleavy. Though of course you hope for that Batum-J Butler-Gobert homerun pick.

[Ericb5]

IIRC guys drafted from 24-30 actually have like a 40% bust rate. That's defined loosely as guys who don't stick as rotation players after their rook deals, so basically means guys that really weren't useful NBA players at any pt. Not saying that means we should lower expectations for Luwawu, just adding it for what it's worth. (One thing I've learned from years on these boards: ppl always overestimate the average return on a 1st rounder and always underestimate the sheer randomness of draft outcomes.)

That 40% bust rate is higher than I realized, but generally speaking if you draft a guy at 24 and he busts that is clearly a failure, whereas a bust at 44 isn't really a failure per se, it just wasn't a win. A weird distinction, but a valid one. The best talent evaluators miss on picks in the 40's all the time, but rarely miss(as in pure bust) on a pick in the 20's.

I mean, that's specifically what I was saying isn't true If I'm remembering right, the best evaluators still miss on about 40% of picks in the later 20s, fans just continue to expect more. Hope's fun, and I don't want people to stop thinking that. Just saying that there's clearly a big split between the fan expectation (which is that you're probably getting a ho-hum rotation guy at worst) and what the data says (which is that you're about as likely to get a totally worthless guy (Damion James or Marquis Teague) as a ho-hum rotation guy(Greivis Vasquez or Quincy Pondexter)).

I feel you on the larger pt, though, and I personally would be happy with Luwawu and Korkmaz becoming Iman Shumpert and Mike Dunleavy. Though of course you hope for that Batum-J Butler-Gobert homerun pick.

Well I was saying the "best" talent evaluators, and not the "average" talent evaluators, and 40% of the evaluators failing isn't the same thing as the best evaluators failing, but I concede the point.

There is a real risk.

Even now that we have taken the guys that we took, I think that they are both very good values at their draft spots, and we are playing a bit with house money. We don't NEED either of them to succeed. Hinkie's stole these picks when it comes down to it, and he damn near had the 11th pick last year so it was a great trade to make even though it didn't pay off at the value that it looked like it was going to for a while there. I expect them to both have second contracts in the NBA, and I hope that one of them becomes a top 8 rotation player.

With all of the high ceiling guys that we have, and will be able to draft in the coming years, if one of these guys plays regular minutes for us once we are good then it is a stone win. I'm glad that Korkmaz is staying in Europe right now. If he treads water he will still get a shot with us some day, and if he blows up then he is a found asset.


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