Fantasy Trade Thread

[sixerswillrule]

No, I'm describing BPM, though the argument applies to both because they're both box score based stats that undervalue defense (almost every stat undervalues defense). His OBPM was negative because of his shooting and his DBPM was high because he gets a ton of defensive counting stats (blocks, steals, defensive rebounds).

That certainly doesn't disprove my statement though. BPM values defensive counting stats but still undervalues defense. If you are a good defender that doesn't put up good counting stats that show up in the box score, you won't be deemed a good defender.

So Green's counting stats including being 43rd among SGs in points, 55th in TS%, 18th in assists, 10th in rebounds, 1st in blocks, and 18th in steals results in him being 4th in VORP?

Compare Oladipo's defensive counting stats to Green's and then compare their DBPM. It definitely doesn't look to be box score based...

It's literally called Box Plus Minus.

Box Plus/Minus (BPM) is a box score-based metric for evaluating basketball players' quality and contribution to the team. It is the latest version of a stat previously called Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus; it is NOT a version of Adjusted Plus/Minus, which is a play-by-play regression metric.

That's basketballreference's exact definition.

Yeah I've seen the definition but you're ignoring what I'm saying. There is clearly more to it than simply each individual player's box score stats.

Again, Green was nothing special in any box score stat other than blocks (below average in many) yet BPM had him as one of the best SGs in the league.

Green's defensive box score stats were nearly identical to Oladipo's yet Green's DBPM was much higher.

Bogut was 15th among centers in DRB%, 4th in BLK%, and 31st in STL%, yet had the highest DBPM in the league.

There are tons of more examples like that. BPM is completely different from PER. Out of 56 centers last season, Kanter was 3rd in PER and 50th in BPM. BPM definitely values defensive impact.

[TTP]

So Green's counting stats including being 43rd among SGs in points, 55th in TS%, 18th in assists, 10th in rebounds, 1st in blocks, and 18th in steals results in him being 4th in VORP?

Compare Oladipo's defensive counting stats to Green's and then compare their DBPM. It definitely doesn't look to be box score based...

It's literally called Box Plus Minus.

Box Plus/Minus (BPM) is a box score-based metric for evaluating basketball players' quality and contribution to the team. It is the latest version of a stat previously called Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus; it is NOT a version of Adjusted Plus/Minus, which is a play-by-play regression metric.

That's basketballreference's exact definition.

Yeah I've seen the definition but you're ignoring what I'm saying. There is clearly more to it than simply each individual player's box score stats.

Again, Green was nothing special in any box score stat other than blocks (below average in many) yet BPM had him as one of the best SGs in the league.

Green's defensive box score stats were nearly identical to Oladipo's yet Green's DBPM was much higher.

Bogut was 15th among centers in DRB%, 4th in BLK%, and 31st in STL%, yet had the highest DBPM in the league.

There are tons of more examples like that. BPM is completely different from PER. Out of 56 centers last season, Kanter was 3rd in PER and 50th in BPM. BPM definitely values defensive impact.

I didn't say BPM is the same as PER, nor did I say that BPM does not value defensive impact. I said that both stats undervalue defense. BPM doesn't provide value to a player that plays strong man defense that doesn't generate stats. It doesn't account for who you are guarding or how good your teammates are. It's limited to what shows up in the box score.

[sixerswillrule]

It's literally called Box Plus Minus.

Box Plus/Minus (BPM) is a box score-based metric for evaluating basketball players' quality and contribution to the team. It is the latest version of a stat previously called Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus; it is NOT a version of Adjusted Plus/Minus, which is a play-by-play regression metric.

That's basketballreference's exact definition.

Yeah I've seen the definition but you're ignoring what I'm saying. There is clearly more to it than simply each individual player's box score stats.

Again, Green was nothing special in any box score stat other than blocks (below average in many) yet BPM had him as one of the best SGs in the league.

Green's defensive box score stats were nearly identical to Oladipo's yet Green's DBPM was much higher.

Bogut was 15th among centers in DRB%, 4th in BLK%, and 31st in STL%, yet had the highest DBPM in the league.

There are tons of more examples like that. BPM is completely different from PER. Out of 56 centers last season, Kanter was 3rd in PER and 50th in BPM. BPM definitely values defensive impact.

I didn't say BPM is the same as PER, nor did I say that BPM does not value defensive impact. I said that both stats undervalue defense. BPM doesn't provide value to a player that plays strong man defense that doesn't generate stats. It doesn't account for who you are guarding or how good your teammates are. It's limited to what shows up in the box score.

Like Green and Bogut? Or Chuck Hayes, whose defensive box score stats were pedestrian other than steals? And so forth.

[TTP]

Yeah I've seen the definition but you're ignoring what I'm saying. There is clearly more to it than simply each individual player's box score stats.

Again, Green was nothing special in any box score stat other than blocks (below average in many) yet BPM had him as one of the best SGs in the league.

Green's defensive box score stats were nearly identical to Oladipo's yet Green's DBPM was much higher.

Bogut was 15th among centers in DRB%, 4th in BLK%, and 31st in STL%, yet had the highest DBPM in the league.

There are tons of more examples like that. BPM is completely different from PER. Out of 56 centers last season, Kanter was 3rd in PER and 50th in BPM. BPM definitely values defensive impact.

I didn't say BPM is the same as PER, nor did I say that BPM does not value defensive impact. I said that both stats undervalue defense. BPM doesn't provide value to a player that plays strong man defense that doesn't generate stats. It doesn't account for who you are guarding or how good your teammates are. It's limited to what shows up in the box score.

Like Green and Bogut?

I don't understand what your point is. This is directly from basketballreference's About BPM page:

"There are limitations on all box score stats – if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution. This is not a great hindrance on the offensive side, as nearly everything of importance on offense is captured by the box score (only missing things like screen-setting), but on defense the box score is quite limited. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with minutes and what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured, unfortunately.

What does this mean? Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender."

[sixerswillrule]

My point is what the numbers clearly show, as I've said. That the defensive impact shown by DBPM of Green, Bogut, Hayes, Draymond Green, etc. etc. is much greater than steals, blocks, and rebounds indicate. Or in James Harden's case, much lower than steals, blocks, and rebounds indicate (9th among all guards in BLK%, 19th in STL%, 7th in DRB%, yet 37th in DBPM). Those first 4 guys are all known as great defenders right? And Harden a poor defender? So is it that DBPM magically comes closer to representing their true impact compared to what the box score shows?

BPM relies on a player's box score information and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance relative to league average.

That helps to capture the other components.

[TTP]

My point is what the numbers clearly show, as I've said. That the defensive impact shown by DBPM of Green, Bogut, Hayes, Draymond Green, etc. etc. is much greater than steals, blocks, and rebounds indicate. Or in James Harden's case, much lower than steals, blocks, and rebounds indicate (9th among all guards in BLK%, 19th in STL%, 7th in DRB%, yet 37th in DBPM). Those first 4 guys are all known as great defenders right? And Harden a poor defender? So is it that DBPM magically comes closer to representing their true impact compared to what the box score shows?

BPM relies on a player's box score information and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance relative to league average.

That helps to capture the other components.

Again, making that adjustment doesn't dispute what I said. Making the team performance adjustment (which is based on box score) is better than not including it, but it does a worse job of capturing all aspects of defense than a play by play stat like RPM does, thus I think it undervalues total defense.

Someone like Rubio is undoubtedly one of the best PG defenders in the league. DRPM graded him #2, #1, #2 the last three seasons. DBPM graded him 15th among PGs last season (0.1) and negative the year before, likely because of the team adjustment - Minnesota had the 3rd worst team DRtg in the league last season.

[spikeslovechild]

Giving $20M to a backup is a terrible idea. That's $20M that can go to a PG/SG/SF, all of which are much bigger needs than a backup C. I wouldn't mind re-signing Noel and keeping him around for 1 more year, but once Embiid's extension kicks in he has to go. He's just not a long-term player so long as Embiid stays healthy.

One other thing that really isn't getting mentioned is that Noel isn't willing to backup Embiid either. He'll be unhappy with the role.

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[Ericb5]

Noel showed enough last season to indicate that he is competent defensively at PF, but he's just not the same historically great defender that we see when he plays C. Neither he nor Embiid should waste their time on the perimeter away from the rim and the rebounds. Not to mention this also turns Simmons into a SF, which negates the huge mismatches he creates at PF. The money needs to be spent on players who complement each other, not players who negate each other's biggest strengths.

Spoiler:

Well part of the reason why the experiment horrible failed was that Okafor was "anchoring" the rim and Noel was camping at the perimeter. Noel wasn't bad at defending at the 4, it was Okafor who miserable failed to defend the 4. With Embiid and Noel you either way have a big close to the rim and both of them have the lateral quickness to provide help defense and not get completely lost on the perimeter.
I agree that Simmons should not spend any minutes at the three with Embiid and Noel on the floor. But with proper minute management it can be done, I assume that Embiid won't play more than 32 MPG in the nearby future:

Embiid, 32 minutes at center
Noel, 16 minutes at center, 10 minutes at power forward
Simmons, 18 minutes at power forward, 20 minutes at small forward
Saric, 20 minutes at power forward

Embiid and Noel (10 minutes):
Defensively Noel at the 4 and Embiid at the 5. Noels biggest weakness of not being able to handle heavy and post oriented centers can be counteracted. Offensively Noel setting screens and rolling out of the P&R and playing from the high post in possible high-low situations, comparable to Andrew Bogut's playing style. Embiid stretching defense if Noel's rolling and lurking for cuts since Noel's a very decent passer.

Embiid/Noel and Simmons (28 minutes):
Simmons playing P&R with these bigs should be extremely fun since they're such a huge target as they're rolling to the basket. Better spacing with Embiid since he can stretch the floor and is a potential pick and pop option, Noel is the better rim roller with his timing and athleticism.

Embiid, Saric and Simmons (20 minutes):
Just like the previous option, only with more length. Simmons has to defend the opposing small forward and Saric stretch the floor on the offensive end.

I agree with TTP that Noel should be resigned if it's not killing our cap flexibility in the future, I'm going to take a look at our financial situation later and post my verdict. Trade Okafor and use Holmes as 3rd big behind Embiid and Noel. Problem solved.

You are ignoring a very basic team building principle, which is that the best players on a team should be able to play together to close out games. You don't give 1/5 or 1/4 of the total cap to a player who will be sitting on the bench watching while Simmons & Embiid try to win the game in the 4th quarter. That is a very poor allocation of resources, one that will almost assuredly fail come playoff time. Maybe it's not a problem now or in the near future, but long-term Noel has no place on a team with Simmons & Embiid.

I don't agree that he has no place on a team with them because theoretically it would be in a world where Okafor wasn't on the team, and Noel could just be a back up.

The problem is that he can't be a backup on the team and be paid like a starter.

Plus you could probably get away with playing Embiid and Noel together in certain situations, and Simmons could be out there with them and two shooters, one of which would have to guard the point.

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[eagereyez]

I don't agree that he has no place on a team with them because theoretically it would be in a world where Okafor wasn't on the team, and Noel could just be a back up.

The problem is that he can't be a backup on the team and be paid like a starter.

Plus you could probably get away with playing Embiid and Noel together in certain situations, and Simmons could be out there with them and two shooters, one of which would have to guard the point.

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Noel is not going to take a paycut to be a backup.

[the_process]

Henson, Hezonja, Watson, and Middleton to PHI
Okafor, Rodriguez, and LAL 1st to PHX
Bledsoe, Ilyasova, and Noel to MIL
Knight, Thompson, and MIL 2nd to ORL

And then next season you can trot out:
Fultz/Bayless/Watson
Middleton/Stauskas/Korkmaz
Covington/Hezonja/TLC
Simmons/Saric/2nd
Embiid/Henson/Holmes

[youngcrev]

Spoiler:

Well part of the reason why the experiment horrible failed was that Okafor was "anchoring" the rim and Noel was camping at the perimeter. Noel wasn't bad at defending at the 4, it was Okafor who miserable failed to defend the 4. With Embiid and Noel you either way have a big close to the rim and both of them have the lateral quickness to provide help defense and not get completely lost on the perimeter.
I agree that Simmons should not spend any minutes at the three with Embiid and Noel on the floor. But with proper minute management it can be done, I assume that Embiid won't play more than 32 MPG in the nearby future:

Embiid, 32 minutes at center
Noel, 16 minutes at center, 10 minutes at power forward
Simmons, 18 minutes at power forward, 20 minutes at small forward
Saric, 20 minutes at power forward

Embiid and Noel (10 minutes):
Defensively Noel at the 4 and Embiid at the 5. Noels biggest weakness of not being able to handle heavy and post oriented centers can be counteracted. Offensively Noel setting screens and rolling out of the P&R and playing from the high post in possible high-low situations, comparable to Andrew Bogut's playing style. Embiid stretching defense if Noel's rolling and lurking for cuts since Noel's a very decent passer.

Embiid/Noel and Simmons (28 minutes):
Simmons playing P&R with these bigs should be extremely fun since they're such a huge target as they're rolling to the basket. Better spacing with Embiid since he can stretch the floor and is a potential pick and pop option, Noel is the better rim roller with his timing and athleticism.

Embiid, Saric and Simmons (20 minutes):
Just like the previous option, only with more length. Simmons has to defend the opposing small forward and Saric stretch the floor on the offensive end.

I agree with TTP that Noel should be resigned if it's not killing our cap flexibility in the future, I'm going to take a look at our financial situation later and post my verdict. Trade Okafor and use Holmes as 3rd big behind Embiid and Noel. Problem solved.

You are ignoring a very basic team building principle, which is that the best players on a team should be able to play together to close out games. You don't give 1/5 or 1/4 of the total cap to a player who will be sitting on the bench watching while Simmons & Embiid try to win the game in the 4th quarter. That is a very poor allocation of resources, one that will almost assuredly fail come playoff time. Maybe it's not a problem now or in the near future, but long-term Noel has no place on a team with Simmons & Embiid.

I don't agree that he has no place on a team with them because theoretically it would be in a world where Okafor wasn't on the team, and Noel could just be a back up.

The problem is that he can't be a backup on the team and be paid like a starter.

Plus you could probably get away with playing Embiid and Noel together in certain situations, and Simmons could be out there with them and two shooters, one of which would have to guard the point.

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If you can get him starter minutes you can pay him like a starter. Particularly while you still have other key cogs on rookie deals. Now, if someone wants to throw the MAX at him, things get a bit more questionable. I can't really see that happening unless he shows himself to be healthy and balls his ass off the rest of the year though.

If Jah can get you a significantly better return due to Nerlen's contract status, I'd much rather deal him. Particularly since I think Nerlens is a far more effective player.

[youngcrev]

Henson, Hezonja, Watson, and Middleton to PHI
Okafor, Rodriguez, and LAL 1st to PHX
Bledsoe, Ilyasova, and Noel to MIL
Knight, Thompson, and MIL 2nd to ORL

And then next season you can trot out:
Fultz/Bayless/Watson
Middleton/Stauskas/Korkmaz
Covington/Hezonja/TLC
Simmons/Saric/2nd
Embiid/Henson/Holmes

Sure.

Little unfair to just plop Fultz in the lineup though... haha

[eagereyez]

McConnell & Thompson for Wade Baldwin. Sixers take a chance on a rookie with good measurables, Memphis adds another shooter to their bench.

[youngcrev]

McConnell & Thompson for Wade Baldwin. Sixers take a chance on a rookie with good measurables, Memphis adds another shooter to their bench.

Borderline NBA players don't get you recent mid-1st round picks.

[eagereyez]

McConnell & Thompson for Wade Baldwin. Sixers take a chance on a rookie with good measurables, Memphis adds another shooter to their bench.

Borderline NBA players don't get you recent mid-1st round picks.

Hollis is 38/79 in RPM among SF's, he is a legit rotation player off the bench. It does seem a bit light though. Maybe throw in Korkmaz or TLC.

[youngcrev]

McConnell & Thompson for Wade Baldwin. Sixers take a chance on a rookie with good measurables, Memphis adds another shooter to their bench.

Borderline NBA players don't get you recent mid-1st round picks.

Hollis is 38/79 in RPM among SF's, he is a legit rotation player off the bench. It does seem a bit light though. Maybe throw in Korkmaz or TLC.

I don't think RPM really means all that much this early, but they also have the 19th ranked RPM SF in James Ennis. Vince Carter spends some time at SF and he's 2nd in the whole league in RPM at the moment and Tony Allen who is 31st. Not to mention a big money starter in Chandler Parsons coming back from injury.

Hollis is an end of the bench guy with limited upside.

You'd have to give them something that was worth their while for them to listen on Baldwin. I imagine they'd listen to deals for him, but I'd imagine they'd want a legit rotation guy.

[eagereyez]

Borderline NBA players don't get you recent mid-1st round picks.

Hollis is 38/79 in RPM among SF's, he is a legit rotation player off the bench. It does seem a bit light though. Maybe throw in Korkmaz or TLC.

I don't think RPM really means all that much this early, but they also have the 19th ranked RPM SF in James Ennis. Vince Carter spends some time at SF and he's 2nd in the whole league in RPM at the moment and Tony Allen who is 31st. Not to mention a big money starter in Chandler Parsons coming back from injury.

Hollis is an end of the bench guy with limited upside.

You'd have to give them something that was worth their while for them to listen on Baldwin. I imagine they'd listen to deals for him, but I'd imagine they'd want a legit rotation guy.

Vince is 9th in RPM among SG's, 42nd in the league. Tony Allen is 49th in RPM among SG's, 238th in the league. You were right about Ennis though.

Hollis can switch between SG/SF and improve their team right now, while TLC/Korkmaz gives them a prospect for the future. They already assigned Baldwin to the D-league and are playing the rookie Harrison over him. Considering that they're deeply committed to win-now mode, I think this is a deal they would consider.

[youngcrev]

Hollis is 38/79 in RPM among SF's, he is a legit rotation player off the bench. It does seem a bit light though. Maybe throw in Korkmaz or TLC.

I don't think RPM really means all that much this early, but they also have the 19th ranked RPM SF in James Ennis. Vince Carter spends some time at SF and he's 2nd in the whole league in RPM at the moment and Tony Allen who is 31st. Not to mention a big money starter in Chandler Parsons coming back from injury.

Hollis is an end of the bench guy with limited upside.

You'd have to give them something that was worth their while for them to listen on Baldwin. I imagine they'd listen to deals for him, but I'd imagine they'd want a legit rotation guy.

Vince is 9th in RPM among SG's, 42nd in the league. Tony Allen is 49th in RPM among SG's, 238th in the league. You were right about Ennis though.

Hollis can switch between SG/SF and improve their team right now, while TLC/Korkmaz gives them a prospect for the future. They already assigned Baldwin to the D-league and are playing the rookie Harrison over him. Considering that they're deeply committed to win-now mode, I think this is a deal they would consider.

My bad... I think the list must show up as by age or something when you first go into it, which explains why the list looks like it's from 2004 at the top, haha.

Maybe they'd have some mild interest in Hollis, but I think the offer would look more like a 2nd rounder. I just think they'd want something more significant in terms of a win now piece if they were gonna move Baldwin. Maybe it's fine if they had a similar grade on TLC as they did on him.

[eagereyez]

My bad... I think the list must show up as by age or something when you first go into it, which explains why the list looks like it's from 2004 at the top, haha.

Maybe they'd have some mild interest in Hollis, but I think the offer would look more like a 2nd rounder. I just think they'd want something more significant in terms of a win now piece if they were gonna move Baldwin. Maybe it's fine if they had a similar grade on TLC as they did on him.

It doesn't have to be Hollis either. They're actually pretty thin on backups for Gasol, so maybe Holmes would interest them. Holmes + Korkmaz for Baldwin. It just seems like there's a deal to be made here.

[youngcrev]

My bad... I think the list must show up as by age or something when you first go into it, which explains why the list looks like it's from 2004 at the top, haha.

Maybe they'd have some mild interest in Hollis, but I think the offer would look more like a 2nd rounder. I just think they'd want something more significant in terms of a win now piece if they were gonna move Baldwin. Maybe it's fine if they had a similar grade on TLC as they did on him.

It doesn't have to be Hollis either. They're actually pretty thin on backups for Gasol, so maybe Holmes would interest them. Holmes + Korkmaz for Baldwin. It just seems like there's a deal to be made here.

Now that's something that I think they they'd be intrigued by. Holmes could be a very nice piece for them. Good call.