Crossposting this from
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1854678 . I know some of you have already seen it.
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The big picture is to sign Tobias and Jimmy, and to fill in all the holes, all while staying below the hard-cap apron.
So
step one is to sign Tobias and Jimmy to full 5-year max contracts. Jimmy probably won't be worth a max salary at the end of 5 years. And Tobias is probably worth high-20s instead of a full max. But there are plenty of teams that would like to poach them, and Philly really has no leverage to offer anything less than the full max because the likelihood of signing anyone better than those two (if one or both were to walk) is pretty small. It locks Philly in as a real title threat for at least the next 3 years. If Butler doesn't regress too much as he agrees and/or Joel & Ben take big jumps forward, the window will extend for the full 5 years. A legit chance for 5 years will hopefully turn into at least 1 or 2 rings.
But that gives the Sixers a depth chart with plenty of holes:
Ben Simmons / ?? / ??
?? / Zhaire Smith / ??
Jimmy Butler / ?? / ??
Tobias Harris / ?? / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / ?? / ??A couple of housekeeping items:
* James Ennis is opting out of his player option. Philly is unlikely to keep his services, since a team under the cap will be able to beat Philly's offer, and a player like Ennis should (and likely will) take the most guaranteed money he can get.
* Jonathon Simmons won't be back. Three options: waive and eat the $1M, waive and stretch, or trade. All 3 options could be the best option depending on the situation. Stretch if we end up right at the apron and we need to stay below it. Trade if we need him to match salary. If neither of those occur, waive (without stretching).
* Amir Johnson and Greg Monroe are done. Let them walk.
* Shake Milton was a two-way player who is worth keeping. Give him a real contract.
The Sixers have 3 options with where their total salary lands, and I strongly favor one of those:
* Below the cap is not an option if Tobias and Jimmy sign.
* Below the luxury tax is possible, but they will have a lot of holes that they don't improve by doing that.
*
Above the luxury tax but below the apron would let them use the full MLE and BAE. This is where they should land, in my opinion. They'd be hard-capped for the season, but would have much more flexibility in seeking out free agents. Going forward I will assume the goal is to stay below the apron.
* Above the apron. If their salary goes this high, they have to work with a smaller MLE and no BAE. Limited options. This may be where they end up if they really want JJ but someone bids him up to around $15M per year. Otherwise, I don't think they need to push their salary this high.
So at this point we are left with 6 players. Then there's the #24 first round pick. If 8 more players are all vet minimum players ($1,618,486), that puts the Sixers at 15 players and $16,382,807 below the apron:
http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=554189185d0816c055e54774338295(Note that the purpose of the above link is just to illustrate what the roster looks like when filled with minimum-salary players. Most of the players listed would not actually sign for the minimum.)
So that's the budget: about $16 million above minimum, spread out among all the players. We can get a little bit more breathing room by stretching JSimmons instead of waiving him. And a little bit more if, say, two of the 2nd round picks (#33, 34, 44, 54) make the roster at a rookie minimum, which is less than the veteran minimum. Make those assumptions and the budget jumps up to $18,492,132 above minimum contracts for the 6 players who aren't draft picks. Naturally, being above the cap means they can't just sign anyone. They'll have the MLE, BAE, their own free agents, and very limited capability to make trades.
Free agency: * Full MLE: $9,245,000
* Full BAE: $3,618,000
* Philly re-signing their own free agents. The ones worth considering (in order): JJ Redick, Mike Scott, Boban Marjanovic, TJ McConnell, Furkan Korkmaz
Trade resources:* Jonathon Simmons' tradeable contract, Fultz's TPE ($2,339,880), Saric's TPE ($957,480)
* Can trade picks (2019: 24, 33, 34, 44, 54 plus future years)
Those are the resources, with a salary limit of no more than about
$16M-$18.5M above minimum contracts. I see it playing out something like this, although I'm not filling in all of the names yet:
Ben Simmons / BAE / Veteran Minimum
JJ Redick / Zhaire Smith / Shake Milton
Jimmy Butler / Mike Scott / 2nd Rd Pick (33,34,44,54?)
Tobias Harris / 1st Rd Pick 24 / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / MLE / Boban Marjanovic
1. Most important hole to fill is the starting SG. Redick did fine there this year, and it would be good to bring him back. In order to fit in everything else, Philly should try to bring him back for a low annual salary but a lot of years: 4yr/$25M.
2. Next most important slot is Joel's backup. Biggest asset is the MLE, so use that there. Get the best backup center you can get for $9,245,000 per year.
3. Ben's backup. Use the BAE to get the best backup PG available for $3,618,000.
4. Re-sign Mike Scott at about $4.5M. He was a decent rotation player this year and is worth keeping around.
5. Re-sign Boban Marjanovic at about $3M per year. He was unplayable against Toronto, but in some matchups against bench players he is not just playable but dominant. Joel is going to rest a lot. Having a player who can help win games against weaker teams while Embiid is resting is important.
6. 1st round pick at 24 should be best player available, but it would be nice if it filled the backup PF slot.
7. Hope for one of the 2nd round picks to perform well in training camp and make the roster, and sign someone to a vet minimum contract.
8. Two other 2nd round picks get two-way contracts. G-League, stash, trade, or cut the 4th second-round pick.
If Redick, Scott, and Marjanovic sign at those numbers it leaves the Sixers just shy of the apron with enough breathing room to afford two 10-day contracts during the season if necessary. (But without the ability to offer the 10-day players permanent contracts.)
So now filling in the blanks... I'm going to be a bit optimistic here but will give it a shot.
Ben Simmons / Cory Joseph / TJ McConnell
JJ Redick / Zhaire Smith / Shake Milton
Jimmy Butler / Mike Scott / Cam Johnson
Tobias Harris / Mfiondu Kabengele / Jonah Bolden
Joel Embiid / Dewayne Dedmon / Boban Marjanovic
Two-way: Daniel Gafford, DaQuan Jeffries
* Mfiondou Kabenegele at 24. I've seen some mocks with him this low, but he'll probably be taken before then.
* Dewayne Dedmon for the MLE. But I expect he'll probably end up around $15M instead of the $9.2M Philly can offer.
* Cory Joseph for the BAE if we can get him for that.
* Cam Johnson at 33 for 3rd string SF.
* TJ McConnell for the Vet Minimum.
* Two-way players: Daniel Gafford at 34, DaQuan Jeffries at 44.
* G-League player: Tacko Fall at 54
