Where is Nerlens?

[bedjawII]

Right. And if it means keeping embiid healthy for 10-15 years I am ALL for 28 mpg and overpaying Noel for 28 as well with 8 overlapping. It would damn near guarentee us having a top 3 defense every year.

Your doctor doesn't mean you can keep healthy when he ask you not to play over 28 mins what he actually means is you are injury prone and need to be used very carefully.

When you pay somebody $9 million not to play for two years, assemble the best team of surgeons and rehab specialists in the land (X dollars), send him even to Qatar (more dollars), perhaps you should listen to their advice. We don't know what their long-term plans are. We don't know what they're monitoring. We do know basically that he's an experiment (same as someone taking an experimental drug), and if his surgery and rehab prove successful it will be similar to the surgery performed on Tommy Johns's arm back in the '70s.

Are his doctors being overly protective? Probably…as they should be. What I find fascinating, sorry to digress, is that he's shooting over 40% on three-balls, meaning that the Sixers can play two centers on offense, which narrows the calculation to: Do you want to be a defensive-oriented team (re-sign Noel) or an offensive-oriented team (probably keep Okafor)?

Even though I believe that Okafor has enormous upside, I always side with the next Marcus Camby or Yoakim Noah.

All great points. Except the last one. We have different BBall philosophies. I'll take the offensively talented player. This is the only sport where both sides impact each other. But I think having a great offense impacts your defense more then the converse.

[hookshot199]

Your doctor doesn't mean you can keep healthy when he ask you not to play over 28 mins what he actually means is you are injury prone and need to be used very carefully.

When you pay somebody $9 million not to play for two years, assemble the best team of surgeons and rehab specialists in the land (X dollars), send him even to Qatar (more dollars), perhaps you should listen to their advice. We don't know what their long-term plans are. We don't know what they're monitoring. We do know basically that he's an experiment (same as someone taking an experimental drug), and if his surgery and rehab prove successful it will be similar to the surgery performed on Tommy Johns's arm back in the '70s.

Are his doctors being overly protective? Probably…as they should be. What I find fascinating, sorry to digress, is that he's shooting over 40% on three-balls, meaning that the Sixers can play two centers on offense, which narrows the calculation to: Do you want to be a defensive-oriented team (re-sign Noel) or an offensive-oriented team (probably keep Okafor)?

Even though I believe that Okafor has enormous upside, I always side with the next Marcus Camby or Yoakim Noah.

All great points. Except the last one. We have different BBall philosophies. I'll take the offensively talented player. This is the only sport where both sides impact each other. But I think having a great offense impacts your defense more then the converse.

And as someone who believes that Okafor is a great prospect - he turns 21 this week - I can live with that. Can't blame Brown yet, but if he doesn't start playing Okafor and Embiid together in the next 20-25 games and ditto for Noel and Embiid, it will be coaching malpractice.

Here's my speculation:

Thibedoux, who's currently sitting at 5th in the lottery, needs a defensive-minded center. The trade is there: Noel for Dunn unless BC has had a change of heart re Dunn. A 3-5 pick in a two-player draft, Dunn won't be the shooter that we need, but he will be a solid guard. And the only reason this trade is possible - I'm not trying to incite or insult Wolves fans - is because of Yoakim Noah and Thibedoux's liking of that type of active center.

The Celtics need a center. They've got nothing to offer the Sixers for Noel. That train left on draft night. But they do have something that might entice Sacramento to give up Cousins (the Brooklyn pick) who will walk - at least from Sacramento - in June 2018. Cousins makes the Celtics an instant contender. A top-five pick, when three of the top five players are points guards, doesn't really help a 'win now' team. And they are a 'win now' team. Horford is look old in several of the games I've watched.

The Sixers, even if Cousins stays, have a good chance to have a better record than Sacramento. We're only three games behind and have been decimated by injuries. If we have a better record, we swap picks with them.

The Lakers, regretfully (for us), are looking more like a 10 team than a 5 team. So we'll probably get their pick, but it may not be the player we covet.

The Nets: still probably a top-five lottery team. Nevertheless, they're currently tied for third at the bottom. But their starting point guard has missed 17 games. They won two of their first five games with Lin. If he comes back, I wouldn't be shocked if they improved their record and wound up at 5 or 6 in the draft rather than 1 to 3.

So I expect the Celtics to make a move for Cousins and the Wolves to make an offer to the Sixers.

And I expect that Brown will be ordered to play Okafor and Embiid together for some parts of every game for the rest of the season.

[SelfishPlayer]

All I want is a few games with 48 minutes of either Embiid or Noel on the court. I'd love to see what this team looks like with elite rim protection and centers who can blitz the R&R all game.

Were the Sixers ever even an average defensive team with Noel on the court? I thought that people took his advanced stats and turned him into some sort of elite defensive player but in reality he doesn't anchor a defense or shut anyone down. He just can make defensive plays like a Covington at PF/C.

With Noel on the court during his rookie season (the last time he regularly played his natural position) they were the equivalent of the 6th ranked defense in the league, despite playing alongside mostly flotsam. Their defense with Noel on the bench would have ranked 22nd in the league that season. You would be mistaken on your recollection of his defensive impact.

Noel did play center last season. I'd be interested in seeing someone post that defensive team ranking without the "flotsam" he played with his rookie season.

[dbodner]

Were the Sixers ever even an average defensive team with Noel on the court? I thought that people took his advanced stats and turned him into some sort of elite defensive player but in reality he doesn't anchor a defense or shut anyone down. He just can make defensive plays like a Covington at PF/C.

With Noel on the court during his rookie season (the last time he regularly played his natural position) they were the equivalent of the 6th ranked defense in the league, despite playing alongside mostly flotsam. Their defense with Noel on the bench would have ranked 22nd in the league that season. You would be mistaken on your recollection of his defensive impact.

Noel did play center last season. I'd be interested in seeing someone post that defensive team ranking without the "flotsam" he played with his rookie season.

1) You asked whether the Sixers were *ever* even an average team with Noel on the floor. You were undeniably wrong. I love the shifting goalposts rather than admitting so.
2) Noel played most of last year defending away from the basket.
3) When Noel was at center, the team was significantly better than they were when Noel wasn't. You can take any timeperiod you want from last season, compare the defensive performance with and without Noel, and they were better. That's all you can really ask when the team has rotten defensive personnel.

[SelfishPlayer]

With Noel on the court during his rookie season (the last time he regularly played his natural position) they were the equivalent of the 6th ranked defense in the league, despite playing alongside mostly flotsam. Their defense with Noel on the bench would have ranked 22nd in the league that season. You would be mistaken on your recollection of his defensive impact.

Noel did play center last season. I'd be interested in seeing someone post that defensive team ranking without the "flotsam" he played with his rookie season.

1) You asked whether the Sixers were *ever* even an average team with Noel on the floor. You were undeniably wrong. I love the shifting goalposts rather than admitting so.
2) Noel played most of last year defending away from the basket.
3) When Noel was at center, the team was significantly better than they were when Noel wasn't. You can take any timeperiod you want from last season, compare the defensive performance with and without Noel, and they were better. That's all you can really ask when the team has rotten defensive personnel.

Do you have the numbers or not?

[dbodner]

[Sixerscan]

So the bad news is he got hurt again. But I thought he looked pretty good for not playing for 6 weeks. There were definitely times where he was in completely the wrong spot and the game was going too fast for him, hopefully it slows down for him in the coming weeks.

He's definitely in good shape and willing to play hard which was good to see.

Grabbing a rebound next game would be nice.

[phifans]

Maybe its Noel , not Embiid who needs a minutes restriction.

[Kolkmania]

That shooting form is still really weird, after spending two years at it the result is a non-fluid catapult like throw on his way down. Who's the Sixers' shooting coach? I'm also a bit torn on his weight, he's still so thin. It helps his mobility which is his biggest plus, but it hurts his post defense, rim protection and rebounding. Think there's a middle way with him adding ~10 pounds or so.

[hookshot199]

That shooting form is still really weird, after spending two years at it the result is a non-fluid catapult like throw on his way down. Who's the Sixers' shooting coach? I'm also a bit torn on his weight, he's still so thin. It helps his mobility which is his biggest plus, but it hurts his post defense, rim protection and rebounding. Think there's a middle way with him adding ~10 pounds or so.

Without getting into advanced statistics and trying to interpret veterans, even retired players with a 22-year-old, if we are lucky enough to keep Noel - find him his 30 minutes - two of the ugliest shots of major contributors to winning teams in the past 25 years belong to Yoakim Noah (active but declining) and Marcus Camby (retired).

They also are players very similar to what Noel's potential is.

And if you look at Camby and Noah's career 'basic' stats, they are also very similar to Noel's first two years: minutes/game (29.5, 29.2 and 30.0; Camby, Noah, Noel), points/game (9.5, 9.1, 10.5), rebounds/game (9.8, 9.4 and 8.1), blocks/game (2.4, 1.4, 1.7), steals/game (1.0, 0.8, 1.8), field goal percentage (.466, .490, and .491). And Camby and Noah - so far Noel as well - have missed an average of 15% of games because of minor injuries.

I have resigned myself to Noel being traded. I hope it doesn't happen. That said, I remember a day when pitchers used to go well over 100 pitches/game. I see no reason why athletic 7-footers can't have some sort of minute restrictions. I see no reason why a creative coach - especially since Embiid can shoot - can't find a way to divide their minutes to make both happy. Play them together at times; play them apart at other times.

There is a statistical term called 'minimax' - to minimize a possible loss for a worst-case scenario. We've got two defensive stars, one a possible transcendent player, who have injury histories. Noel appears on track to miss 10-plus games/game throughout his career. Embiid? I suspect that there's virtually no clinical history for what his longterm prognosis is.

We can't compare Embiid to any other player in the history of the game in terms of what his minutes should be. I suspect that we're in relatively uncharted territory.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[Kolkmania]

That shooting form is still really weird, after spending two years at it the result is a non-fluid catapult like throw on his way down. Who's the Sixers' shooting coach? I'm also a bit torn on his weight, he's still so thin. It helps his mobility which is his biggest plus, but it hurts his post defense, rim protection and rebounding. Think there's a middle way with him adding ~10 pounds or so.

Spoiler:

Without getting into advanced statistics and trying to interpret veterans, even retired players with a 22-year-old, if we are lucky enough to keep Noel - find him his 30 minutes - two of the ugliest shots of major contributors to winning teams in the past 25 years belong to Yoakim Noah (active but declining) and Marcus Camby (retired).

They also are players very similar to what Noel's potential is.

And if you look at Camby and Noah's career 'basic' stats, they are also very similar to Noel's first two years: minutes/game (29.5, 29.2 and 30.0; Camby, Noah, Noel), points/game (9.5, 9.1, 10.5), rebounds/game (9.8, 9.4 and 8.1), blocks/game (2.4, 1.4, 1.7), steals/game (1.0, 0.8, 1.8), field goal percentage (.466, .490, and .491). And Camby and Noah - so far Noel as well - have missed an average of 15% of games because of minor injuries.

I have resigned myself to Noel being traded. I hope it doesn't happen. That said, I remember a day when pitchers used to go well over 100 pitches/game. I see no reason why athletic 7-footers can't have some sort of minute restrictions. I see no reason why a creative coach - especially since Embiid can shoot - can't find a way to divide their minutes to make both happy. Play them together at times; play them apart at other times.

There is a statistical term called 'minimax' - to minimize a possible loss for a worst-case scenario. We've got two defensive stars, one a possible transcendent player, who have injury histories. Noel appears on track to miss 10-plus games/game throughout his career. Embiid? I suspect that there's virtually no clinical history for what his longterm prognosis is.

We can't compare Embiid to any other player in the history of the game in terms of what his minutes should be. I suspect that we're in relatively uncharted territory.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

To be clear, I've been one of the biggest proponents here of trading Jahlil Okafor and paying Nerlens Noel. This is a post from about a month ago:

Embiid, 32 minutes at center
Noel, 16 minutes at center, 10 minutes at power forward
Simmons, 18 minutes at power forward, 20 minutes at small forward
Saric, 20 minutes at power forward

Embiid and Noel (10 minutes):
Defensively Noel at the 4 and Embiid at the 5. Noels biggest weakness of not being able to handle heavy and post oriented centers can be counteracted. Offensively Noel setting screens and rolling out of the P&R and playing from the high post in possible high-low situations, comparable to Andrew Bogut's playing style. Embiid stretching defense if Noel's rolling and lurking for cuts since Noel's a very decent passer.

Embiid/Noel and Simmons (28 minutes):
Simmons playing P&R with these bigs should be extremely fun since they're such a huge target as they're rolling to the basket. Better spacing with Embiid since he can stretch the floor and is a potential pick and pop option, Noel is the better rim roller with his timing and athleticism.

Embiid, Saric and Simmons (20 minutes):
Just like the previous option, only with more length. Simmons has to defend the opposing small forward and Saric stretch the floor on the offensive end.

I love Nerlens Noel's defense. A roster that has Embiid or Noel on the court 48 minutes a game is a potential top defensive team. With the minutes distribution above it is possible to play all four of Embiid, Noel, Simmons and Saric a reasonable amount of minutes without units doomed to fail, can cut some minutes from Simmons obviously.

[MatthewGeigerII]

i haven't seen any quotes from the team post-game about his "injury"?

did anyone see him go down?
was there any reports what it was since then? day-to-day?

[Ericb5]

i haven't seen any quotes from the team post-game about his "injury"?

did anyone see him go down?
was there any reports what it was since then? day-to-day?

There was one play where he fell awkwardly, and got up slowly holding his wrist. I wonder if that was the same play that he twisted his ankle. I didn't see anything after that one.

[MatthewGeigerII]

i haven't seen any quotes from the team post-game about his "injury"?

did anyone see him go down?
was there any reports what it was since then? day-to-day?

There was one play where he fell awkwardly, and got up slowly holding his wrist. I wonder if that was the same play that he twisted his ankle. I didn't see anything after that one.

yeah that's exactly how i saw it.

need them to give some info on this today lol

[hookshot199]

i haven't seen any quotes from the team post-game about his "injury"?

did anyone see him go down?
was there any reports what it was since then? day-to-day?

http://www.csnphilly.com/video/noel-after-injury-ill-probably-be-back-next-game

[MatthewGeigerII]

i haven't seen any quotes from the team post-game about his "injury"?

did anyone see him go down?
was there any reports what it was since then? day-to-day?

http://www.csnphilly.com/video/noel-after-injury-ill-probably-be-back-next-game

awesome! thank you

[hookshot199]

That shooting form is still really weird, after spending two years at it the result is a non-fluid catapult like throw on his way down. Who's the Sixers' shooting coach? I'm also a bit torn on his weight, he's still so thin. It helps his mobility which is his biggest plus, but it hurts his post defense, rim protection and rebounding. Think there's a middle way with him adding ~10 pounds or so.

Spoiler:

Without getting into advanced statistics and trying to interpret veterans, even retired players with a 22-year-old, if we are lucky enough to keep Noel - find him his 30 minutes - two of the ugliest shots of major contributors to winning teams in the past 25 years belong to Yoakim Noah (active but declining) and Marcus Camby (retired).

They also are players very similar to what Noel's potential is.

And if you look at Camby and Noah's career 'basic' stats, they are also very similar to Noel's first two years: minutes/game (29.5, 29.2 and 30.0; Camby, Noah, Noel), points/game (9.5, 9.1, 10.5), rebounds/game (9.8, 9.4 and 8.1), blocks/game (2.4, 1.4, 1.7), steals/game (1.0, 0.8, 1.8), field goal percentage (.466, .490, and .491). And Camby and Noah - so far Noel as well - have missed an average of 15% of games because of minor injuries.

I have resigned myself to Noel being traded. I hope it doesn't happen. That said, I remember a day when pitchers used to go well over 100 pitches/game. I see no reason why athletic 7-footers can't have some sort of minute restrictions. I see no reason why a creative coach - especially since Embiid can shoot - can't find a way to divide their minutes to make both happy. Play them together at times; play them apart at other times.

There is a statistical term called 'minimax' - to minimize a possible loss for a worst-case scenario. We've got two defensive stars, one a possible transcendent player, who have injury histories. Noel appears on track to miss 10-plus games/game throughout his career. Embiid? I suspect that there's virtually no clinical history for what his longterm prognosis is.

We can't compare Embiid to any other player in the history of the game in terms of what his minutes should be. I suspect that we're in relatively uncharted territory.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

To be clear, I've been one of the biggest proponents here of trading Jahlil Okafor and paying Nerlens Noel. This is a post from about a month ago:

Embiid, 32 minutes at center
Noel, 16 minutes at center, 10 minutes at power forward
Simmons, 18 minutes at power forward, 20 minutes at small forward
Saric, 20 minutes at power forward

Embiid and Noel (10 minutes):
Defensively Noel at the 4 and Embiid at the 5. Noels biggest weakness of not being able to handle heavy and post oriented centers can be counteracted. Offensively Noel setting screens and rolling out of the P&R and playing from the high post in possible high-low situations, comparable to Andrew Bogut's playing style. Embiid stretching defense if Noel's rolling and lurking for cuts since Noel's a very decent passer.

Embiid/Noel and Simmons (28 minutes):
Simmons playing P&R with these bigs should be extremely fun since they're such a huge target as they're rolling to the basket. Better spacing with Embiid since he can stretch the floor and is a potential pick and pop option, Noel is the better rim roller with his timing and athleticism.

Embiid, Saric and Simmons (20 minutes):
Just like the previous option, only with more length. Simmons has to defend the opposing small forward and Saric stretch the floor on the offensive end.

I love Nerlens Noel's defense. A roster that has Embiid or Noel on the court 48 minutes a game is a potential top defensive team. With the minutes distribution above it is possible to play all four of Embiid, Noel, Simmons and Saric a reasonable amount of minutes without units doomed to fail, can cut some minutes from Simmons obviously.

Well, we're on the same page. Let's hope BC and JC agree. I also don't want to unload Okafor until he's given a chance…or for pennies on the dollar. I think he's a much better player, has enormous upside, than many posters on the board. He's making $4.8 mil, gets paid whether he plays or not. Suck it up. That said, he needs to be given a chance to see if he can run around at the 4.

[hookshot199]

i haven't seen any quotes from the team post-game about his "injury"?

did anyone see him go down?
was there any reports what it was since then? day-to-day?

http://www.csnphilly.com/video/noel-after-injury-ill-probably-be-back-next-game

awesome! thank you

You're welcome, although I'm not sure I ever trust a player to give an objective opinion about his own injury.

[NJ SixerFan]

So out til after the all star break?

[hookshot199]

So out til after the all star break?

No. I would just prefer the team to make an announcement. I also happen to like all of our draft picks including BC's, and see no reason - if you're a billionaire owner - to trade away assets. Noel's a huge asset and Okafor turns 21 on Thursday.