2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Arsenal]

The real Jon Snow fighting the entire army at Rutgers: Dylan Harper.

Ace was Davos standing a mile back watching the scene unfold.

No way. Ace's on/off was superior to Harper. Harper's lack of ability to shoot or provide any usefulness off the ball cratered the team's spacing and thereby hampered Ace's game.

Ace was a better teammate and complement for Harper than vice versa.

Do you think that applies in February and March too? Because Harper's numbers look fine there, while Ace looks like someone who should return for another year.

I assume the book was out on how to defend Rutgers by Feb. Just crowd and double/triple Ace since no one else can shoot or space the floor. Meanwhile, Harper gets to put up nice looking numbers since Ace is taking away the defensive attention.

[Arsenal]

Christ almighty! More fighting over Bailey. This **** has to stop!

There would be peace if you Ace haters stopped overthinking.

How is valid criticism backed by numbers considered "hating"? And how is healthy debate based on opinions but no personal insults, which is exactly what these boards are supposed to be about, not a good thing? Are you two related to Ace Bailey or something?

Don't agree with the criticism? Then fight it off with facts and numbers rather than telling people not to actually use their minds and "overthink" something and do what this forum was meant to do - exchange ideas and opinions.

There's been far more trolling by your side about "overthinking." Please direct your criticism there first.

And there are plenty of facts supporting Ace for our #3 pick, but those who have tunnel vision for BPM have started an anti-Ace jihad.

Pushing back against that is exactly the exchange of ideas and opinions you claim to advocate for.

[Negrodamus]

No way. Ace's on/off was superior to Harper. Harper's lack of ability to shoot or provide any usefulness off the ball cratered the team's spacing and thereby hampered Ace's game.

Ace was a better teammate and complement for Harper than vice versa.

Do you think that applies in February and March too? Because Harper's numbers look fine there, while Ace looks like someone who should return for another year.

I assume the book was out on how to defend Rutgers by Feb. Just crowd and double/triple Ace since no one else can shoot or space the floor. Meanwhile, Harper gets to put up nice looking numbers since Ace is taking away the defensive attention.

More fanfic. Double AND triple teamed? Alright.

[Arsenal]

Why Ace from an NBA Draft subreddit post:

2. His defense also gives him one of the higher floors outside of the top two. Opponents shot 33% when guarded by Ace Bailey this season (30.8% on jumpers and 40.9% at the rim). For reference, opponents shot 38.3% when guarded by CMB, although I don't have data on his percentages by shot type. Ace also had solid stock and rebounding percentages for his position, although I don't expect him to be anywhere near as good of a defensive playmaker as CMB. Still, I have no concerns about his motor.

His defensive impact can also be seen in the on/off data. Rutgers had the second-worst defense in the Big Ten, but their defense rating improved by 11 points with Ace Bailey on the court. Against top 80 teams, removing garbage time, their defensive rating improved by 17.4 points with Ace on the court, which is absurd (per hoop-explorer). He could definitely be a bit of a space cadet at times, but I don't think this is too surprising for an 18-year-old on a dysfunctional team. At 6'9" (in shoes) with a 7'0.5" wingspan and good athleticism, he has all the tools to be a plus defender at the next level once he fills out.

Combine his defensive potential with his strong C+S 3PA numbers (38.7% on 93 attempts), and his middle-lower outcome is a solid 3+D role player. That's one of the higher "floors" in the top 10.

3. It's mentioned a lot, but I don't think we're giving enough consideration to how awful Ace's situation was at Rutgers. So much of Rutgers's offense was throwing it to Ace Bailey and asking him to bail them out with a contested jumper. It was ugly, but Rutgers had to do this to survive. Against top 80 teams, removing garbage time and adjusting for shooting luck, Ace Bailey's presence on the court was associated with an improvement in Rutgers's OFF RTG by +11.8 and their NET RTG by +19.9. For reference, Dylan Harper's on/off splits were +6.2 for OFF RTG and -4.2 in their NET RTG. Given these splits, it's not surprising Bailey was ahead of projected top-5 picks like Harper, Edgecombe, and Tre Johnson in RAPM despite worse box score numbers.

Full post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1kylacx/the_case_for_ace_bailey_at_3/

[Stanford]

There's been far more trolling by your side about "overthinking."

No one on this board was doing the "overthinking" meme. I'm happy to admit that as the one who started all the mockery. I had observed it on Reddit, in YouTube comments and especially the in chat of Bodner's podcast. If you didn't notice it, that means you're not reading Reddit or Youtube comments. Which is good. Good job.

I wasn't trolling any of the people on this board, so your point doesn't really make sense.

[Arsenal]

Ace Bailey's downside case is a strong 3&D big wing, one of the most valuable archetypes in the game.

His upside case is Paul George / Jayson Tatum level superstar.

A higher floor than guys in his draft range like Johnson, Edgecombe, Fears and Kneuppel, and a higher ceiling than anyone not named Cooper Flagg in this entire draft.

[Covi_Marsh]

Dylan Harper’s ability to get to the rim is his reason he is considered a franchise player level player. If Ace was that at Rutgers with his shooting, he would be the first pick in the draft.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Why have an Ace when we can have a Queen? I'd personally rather have a Queen, but the one time I suggested it on here, I got attacked. Bunch of Casper Nipple fans on here and I'm not sure what to think of all that. Lower your standards, move down the line and take a Queen. At that point we'd be officially serious about the BS with Embiid.

[eyeatoma]

Dylan Harper’s ability to get to the rim is his reason he is considered a franchise player level player. If Ace was that at Rutgers with his shooting, he would be the first pick in the draft.

And his inability to hit a three, or shoot free throws, gives us massive Fultz vibes. Fultz was also more athletic.

[Arsenal]

Dylan Harper’s ability to get to the rim is his reason he is considered a franchise player level player. If Ace was that at Rutgers with his shooting, he would be the first pick in the draft.

Why was Ace's NET rating so much better than Dylan Harper then?

Hint: Because Ace's gravity opened up the floor for Harper, whereas Harper's lack of ability to play off-ball or shoot didn't do the same for Ace.

[sodmoraes]

If we draft Ace we will need to have a fixed topic for his haters to badmouth him..

[Negrodamus]

Why have an Ace when we can have a Queen? I'd personally rather have a Queen, but the one time I suggested it on here, I got attacked. Bunch of Casper Nipple fans on here and I'm not sure what to think of all that. Lower your standards, move down the line and take a Queen. At that point we'd be officially serious about the BS with Embiid.

Just know, I'd never attack you for wanting Queen. Sounds like Ace Stan behavior.

[Iverson Armband]

I want Tre, but I can stomach Ace.

VJ would be a massive letdown.

[LeonJordanJr24]

Ace or Harper at 3.

[stormi]

If this rumored trade down thing has legs, Morey is the best to ever do it.

[stormi]

Dylan Harper’s ability to get to the rim is his reason he is considered a franchise player level player. If Ace was that at Rutgers with his shooting, he would be the first pick in the draft.

And his inability to hit a three, or shoot free throws, gives us massive Fultz vibes. Fultz was also more athletic.

Fultz self destructed for non basketball reasons.

If you disagree then you're agenda laden.

[stormi]

Ace Bailey's downside case is a strong 3&D big wing, one of the most valuable archetypes in the game.

His upside case is Paul George / Jayson Tatum level superstar.

We're just inserting platitudes that could vaguely describe any 6'8 wing in the draft on the basis of an indeterminate hypothetical.

"Rasheer Fleming's downside case is a strong 3&D big wing, one of the most valuable archetypes in the game.

His upside case is..."

"Carter Bryant's downside case is a strong 3&D big wing, one of the most valuable archetypes in the game.

His upside case is..."

There's nothing about the reality of what Ace Bailey served up in college last season that indicates anything other than role player upside.

[Negrodamus]

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/1l6ihkb/nondunk_rim_fg_vs_t50_competition_knueppel_66/

Ignore the two guys in the top right of the chart. Is >60% FG and >90 attempts good?

[eyeatoma]

Dylan Harper’s ability to get to the rim is his reason he is considered a franchise player level player. If Ace was that at Rutgers with his shooting, he would be the first pick in the draft.

And his inability to hit a three, or shoot free throws, gives us massive Fultz vibes. Fultz was also more athletic.

Fultz self destructed for non basketball reasons.

If you disagree then you're agenda laden.

I don't disagree, just find it amusing, everyone has an excuse for all the other candidates to overcome their deficiencies, but for some reason Ace will never be able to, because reasons. The board seems to be hanging its hat on advanced stats, when we laughed at all the Jokic knobsuckers for the last decade when we knew that it wasn't the end all and be all of assessing a player. We also know that Embiid's downfall had nothing to do with advanced stats.

[stormi]

https://www.reddit.com/r/sixers/comments/1l6ihkb/nondunk_rim_fg_vs_t50_competition_knueppel_66/

Ignore the two guys in the top right of the chart. Is >60% FG and >90 attempts good?

The Konomaly