Post#1519 » by oddwolfhooligan » Thu May 26, 2016 8:39 pm
I think Simmons will be fine as a player in the NBA, but some of you are severely over-hyping him. He's far from a sure thing, as far as being a franchise player, and he's a lot more flawed than some of you are indicating.
- You all know this already, but the jump shot is a huge problem. Yes, jump shots can improve, and I'm sure Simmons will marginally improve his shot, but it's pretty rare for guys to go from being complete non-shooters to above average NBA shooters. This is especially the case for players who are lacking in drive and there's a lot of smoke right now that Simmons suffers from that very problem.
- In the half court, Simmons' game relies on taking guys off the dribble or bullying guys around the hoop. This is problematic for multiple reasons. One, if Simmons' can't develop a respectable jump shot, it will be much more difficult for him to penetrate when defenders won't have to guard him closely. However, even if he does develop a respectable jumper, the NBA is filling up with more and more athletic stretch 4s who will be better-suited to stay in front of him than most of the guys who were guarding him in college. As for his tendency to rely on bullying guys around the hoop, this is problematic for obvious reasons. Simmons' length is very much average for a 4 and he won't be able to physically impose himself against NBA bigs in the same way he did in college. This could be somewhat offset if Simmons' played with a ton of intensity and energy, but he doesn't. How can he consistently score in the halfcourt in the NBA—he's going to have to find some kind of way to if he wants to be a legitimate franchise player for a contender.
- When you look at his actual functional in-game athleticism, he's not an elite athlete in the LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Kobe Bryant kind of mold. Granted, you don't have to be in order to be a legit franchise player. That being said, the non-elite athletes who become legit franchise players tend to be elite scorers in the halfcourt. As I just pointed out, Simmons definitely doesn't fit the bill there.
- There is A LOT of smoke that Simmons has serious attitude/competitiveness problems. I don't care how naturally gifted he is, that matters. Obviously his attitude is something that has the chance to improve as he matures, but the competitive issues seem much more bleak. You absolutely need your franchise player to be a great competitor and that's not usually a skill that someone learns. Usually it's something that a player either has or doesn't have.
- The pro-Simmons' crowd is severely overlooking the fact that Simmons couldn't lead a team with 5 other top-100 players to the NCAA tournament in a season that was severely lacking in overall talent. I don't care who your coach is, if you have what it takes to be a true franchise player on a great team and you have 5 other top-100 players on your roster, you find a way to make the NCAA tournament. The fact that Simmons couldn't accomplish that is a huge red flag.
- Just in general, Simmons was way too reliant on making plays in transition for a guy who is being pegged as a franchise player. Go back and watch any of his games or highlight tapes. A disproportionate amount of his points and assists came in transition.
- Yes, he had good steal and block numbers, but we all know that there's more to playing good defense than accumulating steals and blocks. Simmons hasn't shown the toughness, commitment, or feel to give us any reason to believe that he'll be a plus defender at the NBA level.
