Sixers Offseason Thread Part 4

[ckchen]

I wonder what Larry Nance Jr. has left. He was a throw-in to ATL in the Murray trade and has an $11m expiring.

How does he compare to Dorian Finney-Smith? Could he be the PF we need?

I assume the cost will be cheap if ATL is out of the playoff hunt at the deadline.

I personally think this is emblematic of kind of the danger of the massive KJ balloon contract. Trying to forecast what teams will be where, who will be available, who hasn't already been traded, injuries, who else will be looking for similar players, etc. for something literally 7 months from now.

[ckchen]

I am not expecting it but am wonder what Gary Trent Jr will get at this point. Guys like Lowry and Hayward are probably purely vet min.

But there are enough interesting players left that the market is going to make someone like Trent Jr or Kennard or T Jones accept a small contract.

He would be amazing if we could somehow sign him for the minimum, but at his production level and age, even if he doesn't get what he's looking for, some team will probably at least give him some level of exception which is already out of our reach.

[Arsenal]

I wonder what Larry Nance Jr. has left. He was a throw-in to ATL in the Murray trade and has an $11m expiring.

How does he compare to Dorian Finney-Smith? Could he be the PF we need?

I assume the cost will be cheap if ATL is out of the playoff hunt at the deadline.

I personally think this is emblematic of kind of the danger of the massive KJ balloon contract. Trying to forecast what teams will be where, who will be available, who hasn't already been traded, injuries, who else will be looking for similar players, etc. for something literally 7 months from now.

Are you kidding? Everything you just listed is literally Daryl Morey's job. He gets paid $10m per year to do those things you're so worried about.

[Covi_Marsh]

Yes, but it's not about KJ at all. His contract is a place holder. This new cba is wild.

Tradable contracts are important. Creating one essentially out of thin air is pretty sweet. Going forward, Oubre and Caleb slot in to be those type of contracts as well.

Agreed this CBA is turning everyone into lawyers. It's ridiculous, but the reason behind it is not: the league wants to institute a hard cap, but the PA would never agree to that outright right now. So instead they created an arcane and convoluted system that enforces a hard cap on almost any transaction possible, but where the players get 51% of the revenue, teams still with the ability to exceed the cap, a brand new massive TV deal and expansion looming. So the PA decided to let the details slide because the stars who run it like those checks to keep coming in and keep going up. I suspect the league will continue gradually pushing to a hard cap until they get there over the next few CBAs.

If Oubre and Martin are "those type of contracts" going forward we're in serious trouble. The whole point of even considering that balloon payment to KJ is to supplement a team via a trade. We better be hoping that both Oubre and Caleb play up to or outplay their contract value so they aren't considered tradable or the team is screwed.

Oubre has a player option. I’m more concerned with him having a good year and opting out for 15-20 million. Free agent class is slim pickings again next year.

[Arsenal]

Tradable contracts are important. Creating one essentially out of thin air is pretty sweet. Going forward, Oubre and Caleb slot in to be those type of contracts as well.

Agreed this CBA is turning everyone into lawyers. It's ridiculous, but the reason behind it is not: the league wants to institute a hard cap, but the PA would never agree to that outright right now. So instead they created an arcane and convoluted system that enforces a hard cap on almost any transaction possible, but where the players get 51% of the revenue, teams still with the ability to exceed the cap, a brand new massive TV deal and expansion looming. So the PA decided to let the details slide because the stars who run it like those checks to keep coming in and keep going up. I suspect the league will continue gradually pushing to a hard cap until they get there over the next few CBAs.

If Oubre and Martin are "those type of contracts" going forward we're in serious trouble. The whole point of even considering that balloon payment to KJ is to supplement a team via a trade. We better be hoping that both Oubre and Caleb play up to or outplay their contract value so they aren't considered tradable or the team is screwed.

Oubre has a player option. I’m more concerned with him having a good year and opting out for 15-20 million. Free agent class is slim pickings again next year.

If he opts out we have Early Bird rights. We can pay him up to the NTMLE without using the actual MLE.

[ckchen]

Just because they play up to their contract value doesn't mean they aren't tradable. As I'm sure you know, whether they get traded or not depends on what we get back.

I would say true, but at the same time, it's almost unfeasible/unreasonable to think the team could support another huge contract/max or near max player unless you think that somehow a 4 star, 10 players on minimum contracts model would somehow work, but I'm pretty sure that's never happened or won anything even if did. You need mid level salary role players for any team to succeed and any reasonably paid player worth trading for in this scenario would almost never hit the market or would handicap the team with the addition of draft picks until the end of time in order to acquire.

[76ciology]

So Mikal was about to request a trade to the Knicks. Why do the Knicks still have to pay so much?

[Sixerscan]

I wonder what Larry Nance Jr. has left. He was a throw-in to ATL in the Murray trade and has an $11m expiring.

How does he compare to Dorian Finney-Smith? Could he be the PF we need?

I assume the cost will be cheap if ATL is out of the playoff hunt at the deadline.

I personally think this is emblematic of kind of the danger of the massive KJ balloon contract. Trying to forecast what teams will be where, who will be available, who hasn't already been traded, injuries, who else will be looking for similar players, etc. for something literally 7 months from now.

I don't think the KJ number will be some massive number, certainly enough to stay under the second apron. At that point the downside is mostly Josh Harris wastes money (don't care) and they would not be players in the larger buyout market which is probably more speculative than the KJ strategy.

[Covi_Marsh]

Just because they play up to their contract value doesn't mean they aren't tradable. As I'm sure you know, whether they get traded or not depends on what we get back.

I would say true, but at the same time, it's almost unfeasible/unreasonable to think the team could support another huge contract/max or near max player unless you think that somehow a 4 star, 10 players on minimum contracts model would somehow work, but I'm pretty sure that's never happened or won anything even if did. You need mid level salary role players for any team to succeed and any reasonably paid player worth trading for in this scenario would almost never hit the market or would handicap the team with the addition of draft picks until the end of time in order to acquire.

I mean it would be his expiring with a draft pick. And mid level salary role players will be available because this draft class is great. Teams will want to bottom 3 out for a chance at cooper Flagg. Nets are already trying to move Cam and DFS, Wiz trying to move Kuzma, Utah too but Ainge is crazy, Hornets would move Grant Williams.we have our starting 5 already. But there’s depth available later if need be.

[Snotbubbles]

I wonder what Larry Nance Jr. has left. He was a throw-in to ATL in the Murray trade and has an $11m expiring.

How does he compare to Dorian Finney-Smith? Could he be the PF we need?

I assume the cost will be cheap if ATL is out of the playoff hunt at the deadline.

I personally think this is emblematic of kind of the danger of the massive KJ balloon contract. Trying to forecast what teams will be where, who will be available, who hasn't already been traded, injuries, who else will be looking for similar players, etc. for something literally 7 months from now.

Are you kidding? Everything you just listed is literally Daryl Morey's job. He gets paid $10m per year to do those things you're so worried about.

I also don't see it as dangerous. It's essentially, ownership paying out money for one year. If they can get a starting level player for it, good job. If they can't, you move on next offseason. It's basically, Paul Reed's contract after the poison pill wasn't met.

[Arsenal]

Just because they play up to their contract value doesn't mean they aren't tradable. As I'm sure you know, whether they get traded or not depends on what we get back.

I would say true, but at the same time, it's almost unfeasible/unreasonable to think the team could support another huge contract/max or near max player unless you think that somehow a 4 star, 10 players on minimum contracts model would somehow work, but I'm pretty sure that's never happened or won anything even if did. You need mid level salary role players for any team to succeed and any reasonably paid player worth trading for in this scenario would almost never hit the market or would handicap the team with the addition of draft picks until the end of time in order to acquire.

If it doesn't make sense then we won't trade them. Besides, the team that just won the title has 4 guys making over $30m/yr. So it is possible to take that approach if it makes sense.

The point is we have optionality to go either way. Which is a good thing, not a bad thing like you seem to think.

[FlyingArrow]

So Joel says he's okay with games of 10pts and allowing others to carry the offense.... With a top level backup center, anybody think he can actually hold himself back during the season this year? Not lead in usage and shoot for post season awards. I would love to see him just one season during his prime truly aim for the playoffs and take care of himself. That's not to say he hasn't made it to the playoffs healthy before, but still... Maybe when he gets there not take stupid ass risks

I want to see him win DPOY this year. We have the offensive firepower to make it through some 10-15pt games from Joel... as long as we see a DPOY performance over the course of the year. That's a tough order with Wembanyama's ascendance, though.

[ckchen]

I wonder what Larry Nance Jr. has left. He was a throw-in to ATL in the Murray trade and has an $11m expiring.

How does he compare to Dorian Finney-Smith? Could he be the PF we need?

I assume the cost will be cheap if ATL is out of the playoff hunt at the deadline.

I personally think this is emblematic of kind of the danger of the massive KJ balloon contract. Trying to forecast what teams will be where, who will be available, who hasn't already been traded, injuries, who else will be looking for similar players, etc. for something literally 7 months from now.

Are you kidding? Everything you just listed is literally Daryl Morey's job. He gets paid $10m per year to do those things you're so worried about.

You're right, and that's probably why it's taking so long for this thing to happen because there are so many scenarios, factors and variables to consider. I'm just highlighting that that's why trying to make these calls now (as NOT the GM) is literally just fantasy/pure speculation this early. When I say danger, I just mean it just opens up speculation to endless scenarios. What if Luka gets a season ending injury and Dallas gives up by midseason maybe we could get PJ Washington! What if Mikal Bridges turns out to be redundant and he demands a trade? What if Ben Simmons somehow magically becomes good again? Yes, I understand it sounds ridiculous, but just trying to defend my skepticism of speculating what a Martin balloon contract trade could return this far in advance.

[Stanford]

To those who think that the KJ maneuver is simply a risk for Jonk Harrins's bank account, I think you're forgetting that this is a business and like all this is a business, this is a business. When it comes down to it, this is a businessmen don't throw their this is a business money away on propositions with such a slim this is a business chance of success. This is a business, after all. You know this is a business, right?

[Covi_Marsh]

Tyrese Maxey / Jared McClain
Kelly Oubre / Eric Gordon
Paul George / Ricky Council IV / KJ Martin
Caleb Martin
Joel Embiid/ Andre Drummond / Adem Bona

Ideally we get Lowry and Marcus Morris to come back home again for vet leadership and depth.
I’d love to grab Gary Trent Jr but there has to be smoke to Nurse not liking him plus he probably will sign for TMLE once he finally admits there’s no market for him. Gordon Hayward but I think if he goes the bet minimum route he would return to Boston which would suck but I think he picks that city over Philadelphia. Or Luke Kennard who I think will just re-up with Memphis.

[ckchen]

Just because they play up to their contract value doesn't mean they aren't tradable. As I'm sure you know, whether they get traded or not depends on what we get back.

I would say true, but at the same time, it's almost unfeasible/unreasonable to think the team could support another huge contract/max or near max player unless you think that somehow a 4 star, 10 players on minimum contracts model would somehow work, but I'm pretty sure that's never happened or won anything even if did. You need mid level salary role players for any team to succeed and any reasonably paid player worth trading for in this scenario would almost never hit the market or would handicap the team with the addition of draft picks until the end of time in order to acquire.

I mean it would be his expiring with a draft pick. And mid level salary role players will be available because this draft class is great. Teams will want to bottom 3 out for a chance at cooper Flagg. Nets are already trying to move Cam and DFS, Wiz trying to move Kuzma, Utah too but Ainge is crazy, Hornets would move Grant Williams.we have our starting 5 already. But there’s depth available later if need be.

This was talking about Oubre or Caleb Martin, not the KJ thing.

[NearingZero]

It's possible Oubre can't be traded without his consent per Article VII, Section 8(b):

A player ... with a one-year Contract (excluding any Option Year) who would be a Qualifying Veteran Free Agent or an Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent upon completing the playing services called for under his Contract cannot be traded without the player’s consent; provided, however, that ... the player and Team may agree at the time of signing such Contract that the player’s right to consent to a trade ... shall be eliminated.

I believe Oubre would be an Early Qualifying Vet after this year, so this provision should apply to him. Obviously, we don't know whether Oubre agreed to waive this provision at signing.

[Sixerscan]

It's possible Oubre can't be traded without his consent per Article VII, Section 8(b):

A player ... with a one-year Contract (excluding any Option Year) who would be a Qualifying Veteran Free Agent or an Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent upon completing the playing services called for under his Contract cannot be traded without the player’s consent; provided, however, that ... the player and Team may agree at the time of signing such Contract that the player’s right to consent to a trade ... shall be eliminated.

I believe Oubre would be an Early Qualifying Vet after this year, so this provision should apply to him. Obviously, we don't know whether Oubre agreed to waive this provision at signing.

Pretty sure he wouldn't be an Early Qualifying Vet. It would be his second year with the team, but I think they waived his bird rights (they needed to get rid of his cap hold to get the space to do everything else) since they signed him with an exception.

The downside of that being I don't think they will have his early bird rights next offseason.

[NearingZero]

It's possible Oubre can't be traded without his consent per Article VII, Section 8(b):

A player ... with a one-year Contract (excluding any Option Year) who would be a Qualifying Veteran Free Agent or an Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent upon completing the playing services called for under his Contract cannot be traded without the player’s consent; provided, however, that ... the player and Team may agree at the time of signing such Contract that the player’s right to consent to a trade ... shall be eliminated.

I believe Oubre would be an Early Qualifying Vet after this year, so this provision should apply to him. Obviously, we don't know whether Oubre agreed to waive this provision at signing.

Pretty sure he wouldn't be an Early Qualifying Vet. It would be his second year with the team, but I think they waived his bird rights (they needed to get rid of his cap hold to get the space to do everything else) since they signed him with an exception.

The downside of that being I don't think they will have his early bird rights next offseason.

I don't think waiving the rights matter:

“Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent” means a Veteran Free Agent who, prior to becoming a Veteran Free Agent, played under one (1) or more Player Contracts covering some or all of each of the two (2) preceding Seasons, and who either played exclusively with his Prior Team during such two (2) Seasons, or, if he played for more than one (1) Team during such period, changed Teams only (i) by means of trade, (ii) by means of assignment via the NBA’s waiver procedures, or (iii) by signing with his Prior Team during the first of the two (2) Seasons.

[ckchen]

Just because they play up to their contract value doesn't mean they aren't tradable. As I'm sure you know, whether they get traded or not depends on what we get back.

I would say true, but at the same time, it's almost unfeasible/unreasonable to think the team could support another huge contract/max or near max player unless you think that somehow a 4 star, 10 players on minimum contracts model would somehow work, but I'm pretty sure that's never happened or won anything even if did. You need mid level salary role players for any team to succeed and any reasonably paid player worth trading for in this scenario would almost never hit the market or would handicap the team with the addition of draft picks until the end of time in order to acquire.

If it doesn't make sense then we won't trade them. Besides, the team that just won the title has 4 guys making over $30m/yr. So it is possible to take that approach if it makes sense.

The point is we have optionality to go either way. Which is a good thing, not a bad thing like you seem to think.

It does NOW, but last season they still had Derrick White and Horford on mid-level salary type deals. 4 guys on $30M/yr is far different from what we would have is 2 guys at $50M, and 1 at $35. The 4 guys @ 30 still left room in the cap for the Celtics to actually have mid-salary players on the team that the Sixers adding another $30m+ wouldn't. Unfortunately, the salary cap didn't increase THAT much. I never said that Oubre or Caleb were untradeable, I'm just saying that we need to be hoping that they basically playing like they basically are.