Welcome Okafor: Thread 2

[Agnostifarian]

Defense: He started badly. But in January (last month as a center), the team limits opponents to 40FG% when he's on the court. 45% when he's off the court.

Are you just making stuff up now? Opponents shot 46.1% in January when Okafor was on the court.

Mr. Bodner, if you have the opportunity to ask Joel Embiid how tall he is, wingspan & standing reach, and would report back to us, I think we would all be very appreciative. I certainly would. Bare feet, please,... for science sake, right Ericb5?

[Agnostifarian]

Maybe we should keep this guy.

http://www.libertyballers.com/2016/3/1/11139376/jahlil-okafor-is-putting-up-historical-offensive-numbers

[roma258]

Maybe we should keep this guy.

http://www.libertyballers.com/2016/3/1/11139376/jahlil-okafor-is-putting-up-historical-offensive-numbers

The three players directly below him are Tyreke Evans, Harold Minor and Michael Beasely. Seems like hardly the metric for future greatness. His defense is still terrible. Our offense is still better without him on the court. He's an empty stat player right now, a center who doesn't protect the rim or rebound. We should cut bait while he still has value in the league.

[Ericb5]

Defense: He started badly. But in January (last month as a center), the team limits opponents to 40FG% when he's on the court. 45% when he's off the court.

Are you just making stuff up now? Opponents shot 46.1% in January when Okafor was on the court.

Mr. Bodner, if you have the opportunity to ask Joel Embiid how tall he is, wingspan & standing reach, and would report back to us, I think we would all be very appreciative. I certainly would. Bare feet, please,... for science sake, right Ericb5?

Lol, yup!




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[CoreyGallagher]

Maybe we should keep this guy.

http://www.libertyballers.com/2016/3/1/11139376/jahlil-okafor-is-putting-up-historical-offensive-numbers

The three players directly below him are Tyreke Evans, Harold Minor and Michael Beasely. Seems like hardly the metric for future greatness. His defense is still terrible. Our offense is still better without him on the court. He's an empty stat player right now, a center who doesn't protect the rim or rebound. We should cut bait while he still has value in the league.

He's more of a Power Forward now and it seems likely that his style has changed or perhaps the coaching staff is using him differently when he plays that position. Earlier in the season he was boxing out too much, recently, since he's been on the perimeter more often, he has been leaking rather than crashing the boards. For the season, when he plays without Noel, so Center, he has a 14.0 reb%. Noel without Okafor has a 14.8 reb%. When they play together Okafor has an 11.1 reb%, Noel 15.8 reb%. You can compare those rebounding percentages to around the league here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html?lid=header_seasons#advanced::13

Also, obviously can't pick splits, but believe most recognize what Ish has done for this team. So, if we were to just look at that same list they cited and compare his scoring numbers since the acquisition of Ish to them. 58.1 fg%, 59.5 TS%, 27.5 USG%. That would be the highest TS% of all time for a rookie with that sort of high usage. Regarding cutting bait, proposing that because of his rebounding and defense is fine by me, but I'm personally not making any decisions of the magnitude that is this franchise's future based on the supposed impact that a player has on the performances of the borderline NBA players on this team. I'd give both our bigs at least another season to see how they play with Embiid and sign some actual NBA players to see how they play with them as well.

[HotelVitale]

Maybe we should keep this guy.
http://www.libertyballers.com/2016/3/1/11139376/jahlil-okafor-is-putting-up-historical-offensive-numbers

The three players directly below him are Tyreke Evans, Harold Minor and Michael Beasely. Seems like hardly the metric for future greatness.

Gotta interpret a stat chart before you can knock it. He's scoring twice as much as Miner did, and 60% more than Beasley while still maintaining that efficiency.

More importantly, the article is actually about his unprecedented a) % on unassisted shots and b) his efficiency increase since Ish joined. If you're looking at his post-Ish numbers (which isn't a small sample size anymore), he's actually been more efficient than Jordan or Shaq were as rookies.

I know that overstates his value, and I'm definitely not trying to compare him to those greats. Just that his efficiency + production are accomplishments that require us to take a second look at the projections and narratives (including the ones I myself was buying into) from the first half of the season.

[freshie2]

Offensive numbers are great, but he either has to rebound and defend better, or extend his range and truly become a PF on offense if he's going to be a big time star. Nice player, but major deficiencies if you're going to claim success on the #3 overall pick.

[76ers 2020]

He's more of a Power Forward now and it seems likely that his style has changed or perhaps the coaching staff is using him differently when he plays that position. Earlier in the season he was boxing out too much, recently, since he's been on the perimeter more often, he has been leaking rather than crashing the boards. For the season, when he plays without Noel, so Center, he has a 14.0 reb%. Noel without Okafor has a 14.8 reb%. When they play together Okafor has an 11.1 reb%, Noel 15.8 reb%. You can compare those rebounding percentages to around the league here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html?lid=header_seasons#advanced::13

There has been a change recently in the amount of rebounds he is in position to grab. Which backs up the first thing you said. What hasn't really changed is the amount he grabs while he is position for them.

These are his total rebounding numbers. The 45.5% of the rebounding chances he grabs is 3rd worst in the league among players at the same position that average 15 mpg or more. That is 59 players total. The 45.5% is 22% behind the leader Jordan.

Rebound chances/Percent of those chances he grabs.
All 15.5 45.5%
Feb 14.1 48%
Jan 13.7 39%
Dec 15.3 48.9%
Nov 18.1 46.6%

Same thing now with only defensive rebounds. He is 4th worst here. Again around 20% behind.
Okafor
All 9.6 49.3%
Feb 8.0 50%
Jan 8.2 45.9%
Dec 9.4 50.4%
Nov 11.8 51.3%

Now offensive rebounds. He is 47th out of 59 here. One thing about his offensive rebound numbers that jumps out is how bad 2 of the months were. If he could keep his percentage at the same rate as February and December he would be around 22nd out of 59. Whereas defensive rebounding has just been consistently bad. So hopefully he can find consistency here. He is 22% behind the leader here. Which is surprisingly not Drummond but Vucevic. Though Drummond does get way more chances.

All 5.8 39.4%
Feb 5.5 45%
Jan 5.5 28.8%
Dec 5.9 46.5%
Nov 6.3 37.6%

There is an adjusted rebound percentage number as well. Which takes into account the amount he was in position to grab that a teammate grabs. The difference is minimal though. Takes him from 3rd worst at total rebounding to 4th worst.

Here are Noel's numbers:

Defensive
Tot 10.3 56.8 Roughly 30 out of 59 didn't count.
Feb 9.5 54.8%
Jan 11.1 57.7%
Dec 9.4 56.5%
Nov 10.7 57%

Offensive
Tot 5.1 41.3% 43 of 59
Feb 4.5 33.3%
Jan 5.6 46.8%
Dec 5.1 38.9%
Jan 4.8 37.9%

Total
Tot 15.4 51.7% Roughly 30 of 59
Feb 14.1 47.7%
Jan 16.8 54%
Dec 14.5 50.2%
Nov 15.5 51.0%

[76ciology]

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/03/02/jahlil-okafor-and-defensive-improvement/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Well, it's a good day to bring down sixers fans after a dlo explosion.

[NJ SixerFan]

I think we all need to relax a bit on killing Okafor for defense, quite frankly the entire team is bad at defense. There are most certainly improvements to be made but successful defenses in today's nba revolve around team defense. He is in the middle of a position change. I never think jah will be a big time shot blocker he just isn't that explosive but if we had any guard or wing on the team who could defend that would help out immensely. Guys are to good in the league to be given free runs at the rim. Most big men would struggle playing behind these guards. It's like a damn layup line with the amount of defense being played on our perimeter. I mean noel the defensive savant is only blocking 1.5 shots a game. Get a couple 2 way players on the perimeter and I imagine things improve everywhere. I can't tell you how many times I've seen jah make a rotation on defense and get hung out to dry with others on this team not making their rotations and he gets back to late and it's to late to stop the other team from scoring. **** sixers letting up like 120 a game during this recent stretch I don't want to hear **** about that being 1 players fault.

[mksp]

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/03/02/jahlil-okafor-and-defensive-improvement/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Well, it's a good day to bring down sixers fans after a dlo explosion.

This was depressing.

[Ericb5]

I think we all need to relax a bit on killing Okafor for defense, quite frankly the entire team is bad at defense. There are most certainly improvements to be made but successful defenses in today's nba revolve around team defense. He is in the middle of a position change. I never think jah will be a big time shot blocker he just isn't that explosive but if we had any guard or wing on the team who could defend that would help out immensely. Guys are to good in the league to be given free runs at the rim. Most big men would struggle playing behind these guards. It's like a damn layup line with the amount of defense being played on our perimeter. I mean noel the defensive savant is only blocking 1.5 shots a game. Get a couple 2 way players on the perimeter and I imagine things improve everywhere. I can't tell you how many times I've seen jah make a rotation on defense and get hung out to dry with others on this team not making their rotations and he gets back to late and it's to late to stop the other team from scoring. **** sixers letting up like 120 a game during this recent stretch I don't want to hear **** about that being 1 players fault.

Agreed.

I think that Okafor definitely has a ceiling as a defender because of his genetics. He is simply never going to be a leader, or fleet of foot.

However, his problems defensively are MOSTLY poor recognition. I don't even think that there is poor effort.

He recognizes things slowly, and then his lack of explosiveness makes him unable to make up for the slow recognition.

It is largely the same thing with his rebounding.

Since I am absolutely convinced that he is coachable, and works on his game hard in practices, he will be able to improve on these things.

I know that I am a broken record on this, but he is gifted in ways that are quite rare. He has elite offensive skill and potential. If he can be an average defender, then he will definitely be an Allstar, and potentially even better than that.


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[76ciology]

I think we all need to relax a bit on killing Okafor for defense, quite frankly the entire team is bad at defense. There are most certainly improvements to be made but successful defenses in today's nba revolve around team defense. He is in the middle of a position change. I never think jah will be a big time shot blocker he just isn't that explosive but if we had any guard or wing on the team who could defend that would help out immensely. Guys are to good in the league to be given free runs at the rim. Most big men would struggle playing behind these guards. It's like a damn layup line with the amount of defense being played on our perimeter. I mean noel the defensive savant is only blocking 1.5 shots a game. Get a couple 2 way players on the perimeter and I imagine things improve everywhere. I can't tell you how many times I've seen jah make a rotation on defense and get hung out to dry with others on this team not making their rotations and he gets back to late and it's to late to stop the other team from scoring. **** sixers letting up like 120 a game during this recent stretch I don't want to hear **** about that being 1 players fault.

Yup, the entire team is bad and the recent Wiz game showed it.

He's lost with the cross matches at PF. Entire team funnelled their man to him at C. That's pretty much it.

[Skates]

I think we all need to relax a bit on killing Okafor for defense, quite frankly the entire team is bad at defense. There are most certainly improvements to be made but successful defenses in today's nba revolve around team defense. He is in the middle of a position change. I never think jah will be a big time shot blocker he just isn't that explosive but if we had any guard or wing on the team who could defend that would help out immensely. Guys are to good in the league to be given free runs at the rim. Most big men would struggle playing behind these guards. It's like a damn layup line with the amount of defense being played on our perimeter. I mean noel the defensive savant is only blocking 1.5 shots a game. Get a couple 2 way players on the perimeter and I imagine things improve everywhere. I can't tell you how many times I've seen jah make a rotation on defense and get hung out to dry with others on this team not making their rotations and he gets back to late and it's to late to stop the other team from scoring. **** sixers letting up like 120 a game during this recent stretch I don't want to hear **** about that being 1 players fault.

Some very good points. Earlier in the year Okafor either didn't know how or was hesitant to rotate over from the weakside after dribble penetration or en entry pass, which with out perimeter D is pretty much every play other than undefended threes, He has improved greatly, not perfectly but much better, at rotating and contesting the drive or shot, but the secondary rotation to cover his back has been late or non-existent leading to open passes or easy offensive rebounds.

The entire team defense does suck and the effort on D simply hasn't been there of late. Offensively the team is built to score off of threes, transition hoops and dribble penetration. Okafor has proved to be an extremely more versatile offensive player than I ever expected, his ball handling and face up game are light years better than I realized, but he has been plugged into a team and offense that isn't suited for him, no one cuts and uses or even sets screens to get open when Jah is drawing double coverage. Yes he needs to pass more and was capable of it in college, but that is a two way street. Guys have to get open and start hitting shots, otherwise he is the best option they have to score on his own. Definitely flawed, most players and especially rookies are, but don't underestimate how good he can and will be on a better, and dare I say it, better coached team.

[Ericb5]

I think we all need to relax a bit on killing Okafor for defense, quite frankly the entire team is bad at defense. There are most certainly improvements to be made but successful defenses in today's nba revolve around team defense. He is in the middle of a position change. I never think jah will be a big time shot blocker he just isn't that explosive but if we had any guard or wing on the team who could defend that would help out immensely. Guys are to good in the league to be given free runs at the rim. Most big men would struggle playing behind these guards. It's like a damn layup line with the amount of defense being played on our perimeter. I mean noel the defensive savant is only blocking 1.5 shots a game. Get a couple 2 way players on the perimeter and I imagine things improve everywhere. I can't tell you how many times I've seen jah make a rotation on defense and get hung out to dry with others on this team not making their rotations and he gets back to late and it's to late to stop the other team from scoring. **** sixers letting up like 120 a game during this recent stretch I don't want to hear **** about that being 1 players fault.

Agreed.

I think that Okafor definitely has a ceiling as a defender because of his genetics. He is simply never going to be a leader, or fleet of foot.

However, his problems defensively are MOSTLY poor recognition. I don't even think that there is poor effort.

He recognizes things slowly, and then his lack of explosiveness makes him unable to make up for the slow recognition.

It is largely the same thing with his rebounding.

Since I am absolutely convinced that he is coachable, and works on his game hard in practices, he will be able to improve on these things.

I know that I am a broken record on this, but he is gifted in ways that are quite rare. He has elite offensive skill and potential. If he can be an average defender, then he will definitely be an Allstar, and potentially even better than that.


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I meant to say that he would never be a LEAPER and not a LEADER.


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[NJ SixerFan]

Some very good points. Earlier in the year Okafor either didn't know how or was hesitant to rotate over from the weakside after dribble penetration or en entry pass, which with out perimeter D is pretty much every play other than undefended threes, He has improved greatly, not perfectly but much better, at rotating and contesting the drive or shot, but the secondary rotation to cover his back has been late or non-existent leading to open passes or easy offensive rebounds.

The entire team defense does suck and the effort on D simply hasn't been there of late. Offensively the team is built to score off of threes, transition hoops and dribble penetration. Okafor has proved to be an extremely more versatile offensive player than I ever expected, his ball handling and face up game are light years better than I realized, but he has been plugged into a team and offense that isn't suited for him, no one cuts and uses or even sets screens to get open when Jah is drawing double coverage. Yes he needs to pass more and was capable of it in college, but that is a two way street. Guys have to get open and start hitting shots, otherwise he is the best option they have to score on his own. Definitely flawed, most players and especially rookies are, but don't underestimate how good he can and will be on a better, and dare I say it, better coached team.

That's another part of it he needs to improve his conditioning for sure but this dude is fighting double teams and more the majority of the night and dudes are banging on this dude constantly we just don't notice because of how strong and skilled he is but he gets very little help from the offense after they throw the ball in to him. Can we get a cut or set some screens off the ball to free open shooters? This is definitely a knock against the coaching staff here too because BB comes from an organization that would run a beautiful offense around a player like jah.

[tk76]

I think you guys are on the right track and the defensive woes are complex and difficult to unpack. Unfortunately, JC and Hinkie need to make some big decisions on how to team build and it will be up to them to make the best conclusion they can on somewhat limited data. Basically:

On Defense:
1. Jah has some known issues in terms of foot-speed, explosiveness and motor/instincts that limit his ceiling as a defender at both PF and C... but

2. The current team-wide defensive issues, particularly on the perimeter, are killing them to where they are not even a good defense with Noels and Grant at 4/5, and are even worse with Jah out there. They are constantly switching to where there are hideous mismatches of 6' guards on 6'7+ players, and nobody can stop penetration. Additionally, their rotations are either non-existent or wrong, often leaving an opposing big free to get o-boards and 3 pt shooters uncovered after the o-board.

Things are so dysfunctional that is is really hard to conclude how much is on Jah and to what extent Jah's part in the problem is correctable.

On Offense:
Along the same lines, you have huge issues that make it difficult to evaluate Jah and Nerlens. Jah should be a better passer based on what he did at Duke. Is that on him (tougher to adjust to a 24 sec clock) or is it due to spacing and teammates? I hope the FO can figure it out, because I just don't know.

Also, Ish and the team are better in small ball, especially given the bigs lack of range. The best lineups have either Grant or Cov at PF... but the team needs to learn whether Jah and Noel can play alongside another big (Embiid.) But the perimeter players don't work in big line-ups (Grant and Cov are less effective at SF and Ish's poor shooting is an issue in a big line-up where there is less spacing and more of a premium on getting shooting from the perimeter.)

---
Pre-Ish we bemoaned the fact that you can't develop or evaluate players who are part of a team dumpster fire. And now with Ish the team can function in small ball line-ups for the most part. But they still are a dumpster fire with 2 bigs. And regardless of W/L it makes it a waste to not be able to know what they have in terms of player evaluation. They will have to make some big time guesses going forward and I hope they are not burned by either dumping a player who will thrive elsewhere on a "real team" or relying on someone only to learn later that they won't excel at their eventual role.

This is the biggest risk of "the Process", and how other tanking teams have been burned. The early 2000's Bulls are a great example. They traded away Brand after his 65L rookie year for Chandler... and then they compounded he mistake by later trading away a 23 year old Chandler for peanuts a year or two before he fully blossomed as a force (WS went from 5.4 on the bulls to around 10.)

Basically I 'm worried that Hinkie has put together such a weak/dysfunctional and young roster that we won't know what he have when it s time to decide who to keep. And the roster is so imbalanced in terms of bigs vs perimeter players that they soon will be forced to make their best guess on what bigs are keepers without the real NBA playing data to make an informed choice. The Sixers are not playing NBA basketball, and as a result you have to scout them almost like a college or Euro team and hope their current performance is not overly padded or suppressed by the surrounding dysfunction. And this is where Hinkie messed up.

[Ericb5]

I think you guys are on the right track and the defensive woes are complex and difficult to unpack. Unfortunately, JC and Hinkie need to make some big decisions on how to team build and it will be up to them to make the best conclusion they can on somewhat limited data. Basically:

On Defense:
1. Jah has some known issues in terms of foot-speed, explosiveness and motor/instincts that limit his ceiling as a defender at both PF and C... but

2. The current team-wide defensive issues, particularly on the perimeter, are killing them to where they are not even a good defense with Noels and Grant at 4/5, and are even worse with Jah out there. They are constantly switching to where there are hideous mismatches of 6' guards on 6'7+ players, and nobody can stop penetration. Additionally, their rotations are either non-existent or wrong, often leaving an opposing big free to get o-boards and 3 pt shooters uncovered after the o-board.

Things are so dysfunctional that is is really hard to conclude how much is on Jah and to what extent Jah's part in the problem is correctable.

On Offense:
Along the same lines, you have huge issues that make it difficult to evaluate Jah and Nerlens. Jah should be a better passer based on what he did at Duke. Is that on him (tougher to adjust to a 24 sec clock) or is it due to spacing and teammates? I hope the FO can figure it out, because I just don't know.

Also, Ish and the team are better in small ball, especially given the bigs lack of range. The best lineups have either Grant or Cov at PF... but the team needs to learn whether Jah and Noel can play alongside another big (Embiid.) But the perimeter players don't work in big line-ups (Grant and Cov are less effective at SF and Ish's poor shooting is an issue in a big line-up where there is less spacing and more of a premium on getting shooting from the perimeter.)

---
Pre-Ish we bemoaned the fact that you can't develop or evaluate players who are part of a team dumpster fire. And now with Ish the team can function in small ball line-ups for the most part. But they still are a dumpster fire with 2 bigs. And regardless of W/L it makes it a waste to not be able to know what they have in terms of player evaluation. They will have to make some big time guesses going forward and I hope they are not burned by either dumping a player who will thrive elsewhere on a "real team" or relying on someone only to learn later that they won't excel at their eventual role.

This is the biggest risk of "the Process", and how other tanking teams have been burned. The early 2000's Bulls are a great example. They traded away Brand after his 65L rookie year for Chandler... and then they compounded he mistake by later trading away a 23 year old Chandler for peanuts a year or two before he fully blossomed as a force (WS went from 5.4 on the bulls to around 10.)

Basically I 'm worried that Hinkie has put together such a weak/dysfunctional and young roster that we won't know what he have when it s time to decide who to keep. And the roster is so imbalanced in terms of bigs vs perimeter players that they soon will be forced to make their best guess on what bigs are keepers without the real NBA playing data to make an informed choice. The Sixers are not playing NBA basketball, and as a result you have to scout them almost like a college or Euro team and hope their current performance is not overly padded or suppressed by the surrounding dysfunction. And this is where Hinkie messed up.

Hinkie hasn't put together a roster at all. He has acquired a bunch of assets that may be kept or may be traded when he is ready to build a roster.

I think that the issues between Okafor and Noel aren't that big of a deal other than the sense that whichever one that we keep will have to share the floor with Embiid.

From the moment that Okafor was drafted, either him or Noel was probably destined to be traded, and at this point I think that Noel is much more likely to be the odd man out.








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[76ciology]

The team plays defense by making it a 3pt shootout (3s vs 2s) and funnelling their man to our center. They force turn-overs now and then, but they are not great at it and they make more turn-overs than their opponent.

Noel is a defensive savant, but he also has strength issue that doesn't allow him to be a good rebounder and a post defender to be "THE CENTER."

I also don't think the team likes to play with Jah. And it boils down to how difficult it is for them to get good looks playing small than with Jah-ffense. The volume of open shots they get playing drive and draw is much better than the obstacle course they need to execute before getting open in Jah-ffense (get jah into good position, entry pass, double team and kick-out takes a lot of time and has a high TO rate).

Theoretically, Noel should compensate jah's defense. Our perimeter shooters should give Jah good spacing. But it has become a disaster that the team now is designed to expose Jah's flaws. Defensively, he's not Gobert or Whiteside that can provide help defense for our poor perimeter defender nor help Noel grab rebounds. Offensively, playing small, driving and shooting is better than post offense and most of the guys know it and aren't buying to Jah-ffense.

[phifans]

The team plays defense by making it a 3pt shootout (3s vs 2s) and funnelling their man to our center. They force turn-overs now and then, but they are not great at it and they make more turn-overs than their opponent.

Noel is a defensive savant, but he also has strength issue that doesn't allow him to be a good rebounder and a post defender to be "THE CENTER."

I also don't think the team likes to play with Jah. And it boils down to how difficult it is for them to get good looks playing small than with Jah-ffense. The volume of open shots they get playing drive and draw is much better than the obstacle course they need to execute before getting open in Jah-ffense (get jah into good position, entry pass, double team and kick-out takes a lot of time and has a high TO rate).

Theoretically, Noel should compensate jah's defense. Our perimeter shooters should give Jah good spacing. But it has become a disaster that the team now is designed to expose Jah's flaws. Defensively, he's not Gobert or Whiteside that can provide help defense for our poor perimeter defender nor help Noel grab rebounds. Offensively, playing small, driving and shooting is better than post offense and most of the guys know it and aren't buying to Jah-ffense.

Most of our guys just sucks and aren't fit with any NBA level-offense. I don't care if they fit Okafor. They just played as bad without OK4 which has been proved the past two games.