2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft - Volume III

[Kolkmania]

Day before draft feeling: if we don't trade the pick, I think the pick will be.... Tre.

Whoa! Care to elaborate?

Not much discussion on Tre and he might be secretly the most Morey type prospect of the bunch. Wouldn't be surprising if there was a secret workout involved. Wouldn't be totally upset over the pick, but I think it's a bit of a reach.

I've had Tre as my number three ever since the lottery, so I might be a bit biased, but I feel the same way. Shooting is the most important skill for a perimeter player and I bet that Morey values that. Combined with his length and playmaking skills he's imo the only one after Flagg and Harper that has a clear elite skillset. Kon has some sneaky upside as well, but not his ceiling is probably lower than Tre (while his floor might be higher though).

[FlyingArrow]

As much uncertainty as there is at #3, it might be better to have #6 and #18. I don't have much confidence in saying any of the 3-8 range picks are definitely better long-term than the others. I also don't have confidence in any other front offices making the right call. If it's all a crapshoot anyway, then just take whoever is left at #6 and get #18 as a bonus.

We'd be guaranteed to get one of Tre, VJ, Kon, Ace. Someone here would be happy at #6 - just no telling who! Or if we're high on Maluach, Fears, or Queen, it makes sense to take them at #6 but not at #3.

[Negrodamus]

I also think Morey can squint and see Harden in Tre. The difference is Harden was actually a nasty athlete at ASU and generated steals and fouls at an elite rate.

Tre already has a very good handle and I think it can be taken to another level. He is obviously a great shooter. But he's not a good athlete despite what his athletic testing suggests which prevents him from any rim pressure. And he doesn't generate any steals while being a total liability on defense.

I'd say the leg up that Tre has on Harden at a similar age is the midrange game. I don't have the numbers for Harden since thats too long ago, but the midrange hasn't ever really been a big part of his game. Tre likes to operate in backdown situations (kinda like Kobe) and has a variety of moves to get his shot off over smaller defenders.

I can see the arguments for him. He does have that "juice" element to him that Queen also has. But I don't know what we plan to do with him as our young core is currently Maxey and McCain, two offensive dynamos who are liabilities on defense. I know Moreyball was an attempt to outscore everyone, defense be damned, but he also didn't win jack ****. Has he learned nothing?

[Covi_Marsh]

As much uncertainty as there is at #3, it might be better to have #6 and #18. I don't have much confidence in saying any of the 3-8 range picks are definitely better long-term than the others. I also don't have confidence in any other front offices making the right call. If it's all a crapshoot anyway, then just take whoever is left at #6 and get #18 as a bonus.

We'd be guaranteed to get one of Tre, VJ, Kon, Ace. Someone here would be happy at #6 - just no telling who! Or if we're high on Maluach, Fears, or Queen, it makes sense to take them at #6 but not at #3.

If we move to 6 would 18th pick be better then asking for
Bilal Coulibaly?

[CPops57]

A lot of posters can't seem to distinguish between "theoretical max upside" and "realistic good case outcome" and talk about a player's lofty "ceiling" as if it's a sure thing that a player reaches it. You have to consider that NBA prospects do not develop perfectly and essentially nobody reaches their ceiling.

Do a little experiment. Go back a few years and check out a few Top 10 prospects' weaknesses at random. Odds are that virtually all of their listed weaknesses remained weaker parts of their game. Can anybody think of a prospect that came into the league with big problems in multiple major parts of their game and fixed many of them? Player development just doesn't work like that. Normal player development is your body becomes a little better in the NBA since you're making that your full-time job, you get a little more refined at a few things you're already good at, and maybe you get slightly better (but still subpar) at one thing you're horrible at.

If a player really develops even 1 major part of their game from college (like Maxey did with 3P shooting) it's probably already in the 90-95% percentile of draft outcomes.

[Negrodamus]

Also, Maxey and Tre are from the same town. Wouldn't be surprised if there's some behind the scenes rendezvous between the two, so it's not a public thing like flying in Tyrese to Philly.

[Iverson Armband]

I also think Morey can squint and see Harden in Tre. The difference is Harden was actually a nasty athlete at ASU and generated steals and fouls at an elite rate.

Tre already has a very good handle and I think it can be taken to another level. He is obviously a great shooter. But he's not a good athlete despite what his athletic testing suggests which prevents him from any rim pressure. And he doesn't generate any steals while being a total liability on defense.

I'd say the leg up that Tre has on Harden at a similar age is the midrange game. I don't have the numbers for Harden since thats too long ago, but the midrange hasn't ever really been a big part of his game. Tre likes to operate in backdown situations (kinda like Kobe) and has a variety of moves to get his shot off over smaller defenders.

I can see the arguments for him. He does have that "juice" element to him that Queen also has. But I don't know what we plan to do with him as our young core is currently Maxey and McCain, two offensive dynamos who are liabilities on defense. I know Moreyball was an attempt to outscore everyone, defense be damned, but he also didn't win jack ****. Has he learned nothing?

I say you have to work with what you’re given. If the best players that are available to us happen to be 3 guards who can handle and shoot the hell out of the ball, let’s lean in to that. Put defense around those guys and let’s wear teams out with elite shooting and passable defense. McCain is a 6th man at this point. He competes and has a strong base. Grimes is a strong defender. Maxey is adequate and generates steals. Tre needs work. We don’t need to be the Pacers or OKC, let’s be the Sixers.

[sodmoraes]

One thing i think we gotta ask ourselves. If the rumours that the Nets, Wizards and Pelicans want to move up get Bailey are true are they right or are wrong? I know this teams are bad, so the easy answer would be that they just suck at evaluation and are in rebuilding mode, so they can have more patience with Bailey.

But shouldnt we be in the same position than they? Embiid´s prime is probably gone and PG is old, so shouldnt we choose the pick with most potential, even if it may take a few years to him get there? Of course, assuming that this rumours are true( that´s a big if), but why this teams want to move for bailey ( and not for edge)? You may say that Edge has more potential than Bailey, but i dont buy it. If we draft him we arent going just by potential, but by another factors( safer, better fit, character etc) that shouldnt be important in a team like us, since our window of opportunity to win a championship is almost closed. If Embiid is done( which is most likely) we arent competing for ****, and probably should rebuild.

[Mik317]

A lot of posters can't seem to distinguish between "theoretical max upside" and "realistic good case outcome" and talk about a player's lofty "ceiling" as if it's a sure thing that a player reaches it. You have to consider that NBA prospects do not develop perfectly and essentially nobody reaches their ceiling.

Do a little experiment. Go back a few years and check out a few Top 10 prospects' weaknesses at random. Odds are that virtually all of their listed weaknesses remained weaker parts of their game. Can anybody think of a prospect that came into the league with big problems in multiple major parts of their game and fixed many of them? Player development just doesn't work like that. Normal player development is your body becomes a little better in the NBA since you're making that your full-time job, you get a little more refined at a few things you're already good at, and maybe you get slightly better (but still subpar) at one thing you're horrible at.

If a player really develops even 1 major part of their game from college (like Maxey did with 3P shooting) it's probably already in the 90-95% percentile of draft outcomes.

that is a fun thought experiment.

i think for the most part most hits come from guys being better at their strengths than expected or so good at it that it negates their flaws.

And again just growing into your grown man body does wonders as well

[Iverson Armband]

Maxey/McCain
Grimes/Gordon
Johnson/Oubre
PG/Edwards
Embiid/Bona

Is that a horrible defensive team?

[Mik317]

Maxey/McCain
Grimes/Gordon
Johnson/Oubre
PG/Edwards
Embiid/Bona

Is that a horrible defensive team?

yes.

Mostly because Embiid is probably cooked lol.

PG can't guard 4s full time and Johnson even if you think he improves is still 190 so he can't guard forwards full time. I also think Grimes is a bit overrated defensively too.

We'd have to play faster and more reckless on defense in that scenario.

[Covi_Marsh]

One thing i think we gotta ask ourselves. If the rumours that the Nets, Wizards and Pelicans want to move up get Bailey are true are they right or are wrong? I know this teams are bad, so the easy answer would be that they just suck at evaluation and are in rebuilding mode, so they can have more patience with Bailey.

But shouldnt we be in the same position than they? Embiid´s prime is probably gone and PG is old, so shouldnt we choose the pick with most potential, even if it may take a few years to him get there? Of course, assuming that this rumours are true( that´s a big if), but why this teams want to move for bailey ( and not for edge)? You may say that Edge has more potential than Bailey, but i dont buy it. If we draft him we arent going just by potential, but by another factors( safer, better fit, character etc) that shouldnt be important in a team like us, since our window of opportunity to win a championship is almost closed. If Embiid is done( which is most likely) we arent competing for ****, and probably should rebuild.

Embiid done? Let him medical retire. Trade PG, move back for picks, take Khaman Mualach

[Kolkmania]

A lot of posters can't seem to distinguish between "theoretical max upside" and "realistic good case outcome" and talk about a player's lofty "ceiling" as if it's a sure thing that a player reaches it. You have to consider that NBA prospects do not develop perfectly and essentially nobody reaches their ceiling.

Do a little experiment. Go back a few years and check out a few Top 10 prospects' weaknesses at random. Odds are that virtually all of their listed weaknesses remained weaker parts of their game. Can anybody think of a prospect that came into the league with big problems in multiple major parts of their game and fixed many of them? Player development just doesn't work like that. Normal player development is your body becomes a little better in the NBA since you're making that your full-time job, you get a little more refined at a few things you're already good at, and maybe you get slightly better (but still subpar) at one thing you're horrible at.

If a player really develops even 1 major part of their game from college (like Maxey did with 3P shooting) it's probably already in the 90-95% percentile of draft outcomes.

I think the majority of the people actually do understand it. However it is still very difficult (probably closer to impossible) to accurately assess what the 90% outcome of a player is.

I'm not sure whether you were referring to me, but if Tre's shooting translates, the floor will open up and while his AST% and rim pressure numbers are far from impressive at Texas I think there's a Devin Booker-esque development possible. Obviously high-end outcome, but certainly not some kind of theoretical 99% outcome.

[Negrodamus]

Maxey/McCain
Grimes/Gordon
Johnson/Oubre
PG/Edwards
Embiid/Bona

Is that a horrible defensive team?

I'm starting Edwards at SF if his defense is legit. Moving Grimes or Johnson to SG.

[zaz102]

One thing i think we gotta ask ourselves. If the rumours that the Nets, Wizards and Pelicans want to move up get Bailey are true are they right or are wrong? I know this teams are bad, so the easy answer would be that they just suck at evaluation and are in rebuilding mode, so they can have more patience with Bailey.

But shouldnt we be in the same position than they? Embiid´s prime is probably gone and PG is old, so shouldnt we choose the pick with most potential, even if it may take a few years to him get there? Of course, assuming that this rumours are true( that´s a big if), but why this teams want to move for bailey ( and not for edge)? You may say that Edge has more potential than Bailey, but i dont buy it. If we draft him we arent going just by potential, but by another factors( safer, better fit, character etc) that shouldnt be important in a team like us, since our window of opportunity to win a championship is almost closed. If Embiid is done( which is most likely) we arent competing for ****, and probably should rebuild.

Teams make bad evaluations and picks all the time. Bailey specifically, is an elite contested shot maker that looks amazing at first glance. Also, he has a lot of tools that make him a top prospect. I may even have him ahead of VJ, but he also i full of red flags. He can't get to the rim, he he doesn't really pass, and his free throw numbers were bad.

However, all the prospects have big question marks, so the real question is which package you value the most.

My biggest concern with Ace is that it sounds like he wants to be a high usage player and is immature. That might fly on some of those desperate teams and is less of a red flag for them than it would be for a team that has four players ahead of him on offense in Maxey, Grimes, PG, and possibly Embid. Can he adapt or will he crumble?

[CPops57]

One thing i think we gotta ask ourselves. If the rumours that the Nets, Wizards and Pelicans want to move up get Bailey are true are they right or are wrong? I know this teams are bad, so the easy answer would be that they just suck at evaluation and are in rebuilding mode, so they can have more patience with Bailey.

But shouldnt we be in the same position than they? Embiid´s prime is probably gone and PG is old, so shouldnt we choose the pick with most potential, even if it may take a few years to him get there? Of course, assuming that this rumours are true( that´s a big if), but why this teams want to move for bailey ( and not for edge)? You may say that Edge has more potential than Bailey, but i dont buy it. If we draft him we arent going just by potential, but by another factors( safer, better fit, character etc) that shouldnt be important in a team like us, since our window of opportunity to win a championship is almost closed. If Embiid is done( which is most likely) we arent competing for ****, and probably should rebuild.

A couple things.

1) No offense to other teams, but fan expectations might be higher in Philly than they are in other cities. Another city who is used to losing might be able to be sold on waiting a few years for upside, but that's a bit of a harder sell in Philly.

2) Morey has clearly hitched his fate to Embiid/George and at least being competitive now. Giving Embiid an extension prematurely and then completely giving up on competing right away immediately after signing George means that his job and maybe his NBA future is probably over after this year. Even if he arguably should just focus on rebuilding, the incentive system guarantees he can't.

[Sixersftw]

A lot of posters can't seem to distinguish between "theoretical max upside" and "realistic good case outcome" and talk about a player's lofty "ceiling" as if it's a sure thing that a player reaches it. You have to consider that NBA prospects do not develop perfectly and essentially nobody reaches their ceiling.

Do a little experiment. Go back a few years and check out a few Top 10 prospects' weaknesses at random. Odds are that virtually all of their listed weaknesses remained weaker parts of their game. Can anybody think of a prospect that came into the league with big problems in multiple major parts of their game and fixed many of them? Player development just doesn't work like that. Normal player development is your body becomes a little better in the NBA since you're making that your full-time job, you get a little more refined at a few things you're already good at, and maybe you get slightly better (but still subpar) at one thing you're horrible at.

If a player really develops even 1 major part of their game from college (like Maxey did with 3P shooting) it's probably already in the 90-95% percentile of draft outcomes.

Great post. I'd go further and say that quite a number of people have no concept of a floor either. I've seen so many posts where a comparable player for a floor is like a fringe all-star. You'd think with how many hyped, pedigreed, prospects had to learn Chinese at some point, we'd stop making those kinda reaches.

[Covi_Marsh]

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Read on Twitter

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DONT GIVE UP ON THE ACE DREAM lol

[Iverson Armband]

Maxey/McCain
Grimes/Gordon
Johnson/Oubre
PG/Edwards
Embiid/Bona

Is that a horrible defensive team?

yes.

Mostly because Embiid is probably cooked lol.

PG can't guard 4s full time and Johnson even if you think he improves is still 190 so he can't guard forwards full time. I also think Grimes is a bit overrated defensively too.

We'd have to play faster and more reckless on defense in that scenario.

Fair. Don’t see how VJ or Kon being inserted instead of Tre really changes things though. MAYBE Ace but he isn’t an option in my mind.

Seems like as long as Embiid and George are here, things are bleak.

[76ciology]

I also think Morey can squint and see Harden in Tre. The difference is Harden was actually a nasty athlete at ASU and generated steals and fouls at an elite rate.

Tre already has a very good handle and I think it can be taken to another level. He is obviously a great shooter. But he's not a good athlete despite what his athletic testing suggests which prevents him from any rim pressure. And he doesn't generate any steals while being a total liability on defense.

I'd say the leg up that Tre has on Harden at a similar age is the midrange game. I don't have the numbers for Harden since thats too long ago, but the midrange hasn't ever really been a big part of his game. Tre likes to operate in backdown situations (kinda like Kobe) and has a variety of moves to get his shot off over smaller defenders.

Tre is not close to Harden. I already went through that exercise, and that’s exactly how I ended up ranking Kasparas at #3, he’s the one who most closely fits the Harden model but still far apart because of scoring volume and steals. Next to Kasparas would be Kon.

As a coping comparison, Tre reminds me a bit of Zach LaVine, he can shoot the three over defenders and has that scoring mindset. LaVine is also someone Morey seems to value when Harden isn’t on the table.

Honestly, I think Tre is a better comp for Maxey than for Harden, both had early career concerns with efficiency and defense, but gradually made major development in both areas.