Where is Nerlens?

[GlenRiceARoni]

I'd look at the recent deals handed out to Adams/Gobert and realize he's probably worth a little less but somewhere in their vicinity.

But when you add in the fact that teams will probably overpay if they bother offering him a deal at all I'd say he's likely to get near the max.

I'd expect the Nets to be bidders since they've shown a propensity to bid on RFA's and it's their only opportunity to add assets. Also he's a nice young centerpiece and would make Lopez expendable and give them a defensive identity.

FWIW, Noel is one of (if not the most) criminally underrated players on this board.

For whatever reason people just don't understand the importance of having a guy like Noel anchor your defense and the relative unimportance of his lack of post up ability. Noel can start for a title contender, period. In that sense he's much more valuable than a Vucevic, brook Lopez, or Okafor type that it's so difficult to win games with.

Arguably, Noel has as much or more current value than many notable "stars" like Aldridge, Griffin, or Horford.

The casual fan just tends to ignore the value of guys like Tristan Thompson, Steven Adams, etc even as their defensive talents anchor deep playoff runs.

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[Johnny Firpo]

I'd look at the recent deals handed out...

I agree with basically everything you said. Noel will get a very good payday, and if he can stay healthy, he will be worth it. Amazing defensive prospect, and probably player (small sample size, but very convincing on that end of the floor).

[hookshot199]

I totally disagree with that. In which area did he progress since he first came into the league?

Last year he had a great connexion with Ish on the court but that was about it? Did he improve in defense? Not at all. I don't see any progress and I don't see someone who wants to be there. And his attitude on and off the court is not a good one.

I'm not saying that he can't become a starter in this league, I'm just saying that the Sixers needs to get rid of him asap. This situation between Okafor/Noel has been going on for too long. We don't know what happens behind the scenes between this two and the coach, we don't know the discussion but we know that Okafor is clearly lacking of confidence right now (same for Noel)

I just believe that the better option for both players and for the franchise is to trade Noel as soon as possible and let our 2 centers play without concurrence and without any preassure as this season we don't have any goals.

If you take his splits where he was on the court without Okafor, he significantly progressed with his TS%, assist rate, free throw rate, and stocks/36. It's a pretty big misconception that he didn't improve significantly from his rookie season.

That's kinda what I see with NN. If given the opportunity and space he can put up numbers. However you'll never win a thing with NN being a significant part of your offense. I don't think he gets that. He's not a core player. He's a super-role player. He can start on a great team but they wouldn't run a single play for him.

That's not true. Noel was handicapped by not playing with a true point guard for a third to a half of his first two seasons. Carter Williams began the 2014-2015 season injured and never got into a rhythm with Noel. Ish Smith did.

https://thesixersense.com/2016/01/05/nerlens-noel-is-on-fire-and-going-to-be-tough-to-beat-with-ish-smith/

Simmons, if he is everything he seems to be, will find an athletic, 6'11" target for lobs who runs the court like a gazelle. And remember, Embiid is a great passer. So is Saric. And, despite his defensive shortcomings, so is Sergio.

Merry Christmas to all.

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[LloydFree]

We have more cap space than any team in the league. We could match any offer for Noel. But should we, if a team signs him to a max offer sheet?

Now, the downside is that there is almost zero FA rim protecting centers like Noel (maybe ibaka if he's considered a center?). This works against us.

Fortunately, there are very few teams that have either a) the resources and b) the need for someone like Noel:

My list is 3 teams, but really only one.

1. Rockets: rockets can afford noel...hed fit great in their system. But they have capella who is their Noel. He makes nothing though, so they may want to take a swing at Noel. I still dont think they go max money for noel, however, with clint in fold.

2. Mavs: bogut will be gone. They need a center. Dirk will be gone. Still, i dont see dallas when they have so much money tied to barnes and mathews. But they could.

And then finally,

3. Celtics. They have a ton of cap space and a huge need for a rim protecting center. This one scares me to death. They could easily force our hand.

If, somehow, we were able to make the celtics not need a center, than the price would be much lower.

Solution: we trade okafor to boston for a deal they cant refuse.... maybe a protected future first round pick.... if boston is out of the noel running, we could keep noel on a 4 yr/12-15 mill a year contract, give embiid his max next year...
And then have cap room to play around while simmons remains on his rookie deal.

Don't count on that. The cap goes up again this offseason. Brooklyn has more cap space than the 76ers, I believe. If Noel settles down and plays near what he's done his 1st 2 years, he will get Bizmack money from somebody. That's 18 per, for 4 years. Not only that, a team can sign him to a Crabbe-like contract that includes a trade kicker. So if Noel gets a 4 year 80 million dollar offer sheet, that includes a 15% trade kicker, that would take him up to 23 million per if traded. That may be distasteful to the 76ers since he will be a backup, and their ultimate goal may be to sign him and eventually use him as an asset to trade.

[dkj5061]

I was just doing some research and the Sixers might be in a better position to sign Nerlens for (relatively) cheap than I originally assumed.

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/243084/The-Maximum-Available-2017-Cap-Space-For-All-30-NBA-Teams-Version-10

If the projected available space from that article hold true, the Sixers will be one of only a handful of teams with serious money next offseason. The projected cap space only gives about 5 teams enough money to sign Nerlens to an insane contract, but he might slip through the cracks with a fairly top heavy free agent class. I'm not sure where other teams will prioritize him, but I would love to match a reasonable offer sheet for him (if he is even still here by then).

[Sixerfan86]

The nets scare me because they really have nothing to lose.

The teams willing to overpay (or appropriately pay) for nerlens is not long. Aside fro the nets i omitted before, i really only see boston as the most legitimate threat. The cap is only up a little bit this year, and FA, while insane, will not be quite as insane as last year.

I think sixers have no choice but to match for Noel, but hopefully it wong be a crazy match.

[eskimo]

The Nets were aggressively going after guards/wings last year and missed out on Crabbe and Tyler Johnson.

The problem is fit given they have Brooke Lopez as their starter at Center so he'd be relegated to backup role there or "twin towers" as well.

I do think we should try and re-sign Noel and get him on the court 30 minutes. I think it can work if he is playing with Noel and someone who can create off the dribble (Simmons).

[LloydFree]

The Nets were aggressively going after guards/wings last year and missed out on Crabbe and Tyler Johnson.

The problem is fit given they have Brooke Lopez as their starter at Center so he'd be relegated to backup role there or "twin towers" as well.

I do think we should try and re-sign Noel and get him on the court 30 minutes. I think it can work if he is playing with Noel and someone who can create off the dribble (Simmons).

The Nets have gone analytic and I fully expect them to cash out Brook Lopez at the trade deadline. They will be a serious player for Noel. I expect them to outbid the Celtics on an offer sheet. Then it will be up to the 76ers to decide what is palatable.

[Sixerfan86]

While sure the nets have no reason to keep lopez, they may have even less reason to trade him. Of the teams who could trade for lopez, i'm not sure who has anything to offer more valuable to the nets than lopez.

The reason the nets have been so aggressive with RFA is because they dont want to tank and have no incentive to be bad. If anything, they have an incentive to get more win-now pieces to avoid the embarrassment of being the team who traded away 3 high lottery picks for nothing.

The nets therefore unless blown away arent trading lopez. They still may go after noel though

[Eta Carinae]

I would like to see Noel and Embiid with a competent pg who can actually run the pnr and break down his man. Cant wait for Simmons to get on the court. TJ and Nerlens just doesnt work

Offensively, Sergio Rodriguez is competent. He is a good pick-n-roll guard.

I think you see glimpses of it with Sergio but his physical limits and unreliable shot makes it to easy for NBA teams to defend against. I guess it could work if he got to play on the second team where he belongs.

[Ericb5]

I would like to see Noel and Embiid with a competent pg who can actually run the pnr and break down his man. Cant wait for Simmons to get on the court. TJ and Nerlens just doesnt work

Offensively, Sergio Rodriguez is competent. He is a good pick-n-roll guard.

He is competent, but he can be chaotic too. Playing too many minutes always shows the weaknesses, but he is a legit NBA point guard, unlike many of our recent point guards.


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[Ericb5]

We have more cap space than any team in the league. We could match any offer for Noel. But should we, if a team signs him to a max offer sheet?

Now, the downside is that there is almost zero FA rim protecting centers like Noel (maybe ibaka if he's considered a center?). This works against us.

Fortunately, there are very few teams that have either a) the resources and b) the need for someone like Noel:

My list is 3 teams, but really only one.

1. Rockets: rockets can afford noel...hed fit great in their system. But they have capella who is their Noel. He makes nothing though, so they may want to take a swing at Noel. I still dont think they go max money for noel, however, with clint in fold.

2. Mavs: bogut will be gone. They need a center. Dirk will be gone. Still, i dont see dallas when they have so much money tied to barnes and mathews. But they could.

And then finally,

3. Celtics. They have a ton of cap space and a huge need for a rim protecting center. This one scares me to death. They could easily force our hand.

If, somehow, we were able to make the celtics not need a center, than the price would be much lower.

Solution: we trade okafor to boston for a deal they cant refuse.... maybe a protected future first round pick.... if boston is out of the noel running, we could keep noel on a 4 yr/12-15 mill a year contract, give embiid his max next year...
And then have cap room to play around while simmons remains on his rookie deal.

Don't count on that. The cap goes up again this offseason. Brooklyn has more cap space than the 76ers, I believe. If Noel settles down and plays near what he's done his 1st 2 years, he will get Bizmack money from somebody. That's 18 per, for 4 years. Not only that, a team can sign him to a Crabbe-like contract that includes a trade kicker. So if Noel gets a 4 year 80 million dollar offer sheet, that includes a 15% trade kicker, that would take him up to 23 million per if traded. That may be distasteful to the 76ers since he will be a backup, and their ultimate goal may be to sign him and eventually use him as an asset to trade.

I agree that this is what he will command. I would do the 18 per deal if things are looking good with him and Embiid, this somewhere in the trade kicker land could be a deal that I wouldn't match.

Not an easy call, but of course the only way that it is even considered is if Okafor has been traded.


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[spikeslovechild]

Hot take maybe the guy that was our best player the previous two seasons and currently has a 27.4 PER and the team is net +27.1 with him on the court in limited minutes this year should get to play more.

Sigh so what thats kind of like being the prettiest girl in Indiana. Being the best player on 10 win and 18 win teams isn't saying much.

As far as the PER goes he's played 35 minutes. He's still fundamentally the same player he was last year. And the year before. That isn't good enough to max. Someone will because he's young and he can run fast and he checks all the boxes of what a modern center looks like so they'll hope he'll grow into a max player. We already have Embiid. We have about 15 minutes to play with at C. Even if he somehow proves the complete abject failure of last year at PF wrong we have Simmons coming back what Jan-Feb?

I don't want to move him for pennies on the dollar either but it is what it is. Lets see what BC can do. I don't have high hopes. I saw him mismanage Bargs talks to such a degree and let on the offers stunk then Masai isn't there for a month and has traded him for a first.

[76ciology]

You have Embiid and Simmons. You don't need to pay Noel that much money. Overpaying Noel is viable if you have a similar built like the Blazers where you need Noel to anchor the D to compliment Lilliard and CJ's scoring.

I won't be surprised if BC let him go and then sign a much needed talented perimeter player to hedge the Noel loss.

[the_process]

If Noel is still here after the deadline, any offer sheet should be matched IMO. It's clear that even at a max deal there would still be a market for him. You won't get as much in return, but since the Sixers won't have any significant contracts until Embiid is re-upped in summer 2018, there's no reason not to match. It is folly to let an asset you control walk for no reason.

[hookshot199]

You have Embiid and Simmons. You don't need to pay Noel that much money. Overpaying Noel is viable if you have a similar built like the Blazers where you need Noel to anchor the D to compliment Lilliard and CJ's scoring.

I won't be surprised if BC let him go and then sign a much needed talented perimeter player to hedge the Noel loss.

You pay Noel what he's worth - MATCH!!!! - and frontload the contract to the extent allowable so that you can move him more easily in the future. The opposite of what they did with Iguodala.

And there are two other reasons for signing him. He's insurance if Embiid goes down with a long-term or short-term injury. He can also be a designated wing or trailer on the fast break, reducing the number opportunities for Embiid to get injured.

[hookshot199]

We have more cap space than any team in the league. We could match any offer for Noel. But should we, if a team signs him to a max offer sheet?

Now, the downside is that there is almost zero FA rim protecting centers like Noel (maybe ibaka if he's considered a center?). This works against us.

Fortunately, there are very few teams that have either a) the resources and b) the need for someone like Noel:

My list is 3 teams, but really only one.

1. Rockets: rockets can afford noel...hed fit great in their system. But they have capella who is their Noel. He makes nothing though, so they may want to take a swing at Noel. I still dont think they go max money for noel, however, with clint in fold.

2. Mavs: bogut will be gone. They need a center. Dirk will be gone. Still, i dont see dallas when they have so much money tied to barnes and mathews. But they could.

And then finally,

3. Celtics. They have a ton of cap space and a huge need for a rim protecting center. This one scares me to death. They could easily force our hand.

If, somehow, we were able to make the celtics not need a center, than the price would be much lower.

Solution: we trade okafor to boston for a deal they cant refuse.... maybe a protected future first round pick.... if boston is out of the noel running, we could keep noel on a 4 yr/12-15 mill a year contract, give embiid his max next year...
And then have cap room to play around while simmons remains on his rookie deal.

Don't count on that. The cap goes up again this offseason. Brooklyn has more cap space than the 76ers, I believe. If Noel settles down and plays near what he's done his 1st 2 years, he will get Bizmack money from somebody. That's 18 per, for 4 years. Not only that, a team can sign him to a Crabbe-like contract that includes a trade kicker. So if Noel gets a 4 year 80 million dollar offer sheet, that includes a 15% trade kicker, that would take him up to 23 million per if traded. That may be distasteful to the 76ers since he will be a backup, and their ultimate goal may be to sign him and eventually use him as an asset to trade.

How do you know he's going to be a backup? Just because Brown can't see the possibilities of ways to integrate them doesn't mean that a more skilled coach won't. Your role model for Noel should be Marcus Camby. Do you think that Camby in his prime couldn't have played alongside an Olajuwon or Patrick Ewing in his prime?

[LloydFree]

If Noel is still here after the deadline, any offer sheet should be matched IMO. It's clear that even at a max deal there would still be a market for him. You won't get as much in return, but since the Sixers won't have any significant contracts until Embiid is re-upped in summer 2018, there's no reason not to match. It is folly to let an asset you control walk for no reason.

Yeah, I agree for the most part. If the 76ers were up against the CAP or had multiple players who needed to be paid soon, I'd think a little bit different. As the roster is currently constructed only, Noel and Covington will be making major money, when Embiid has to be extended.
A worse case scenario would likely be Embiid, Covington and Noel taking up 75 million of the anticipated 120 million dollar cap in 2019. In 2019 Noel would only have two years left on his deal, Simmons still would have two years left on his rookie deal and the 2017 rookies would still have 3 years left on their deals. Noel making 20 million per the next 4 years, would have minimal impact on anything the 76ers plan to get accomplished.

[youngcrev]

If Noel is still here after the deadline, any offer sheet should be matched IMO. It's clear that even at a max deal there would still be a market for him. You won't get as much in return, but since the Sixers won't have any significant contracts until Embiid is re-upped in summer 2018, there's no reason not to match. It is folly to let an asset you control walk for no reason.

Yeah, I agree for the most part. If the 76ers were up against the CAP or had multiple players who needed to be paid soon, I'd think a little bit different. As the roster is currently constructed only, Noel and Covington will be making major money, when Embiid has to be extended.
A worse case scenario would likely be Embiid, Covington and Noel taking up 75 million of the anticipated 120 million dollar cap in 2019. In 2019 Noel would only have two years left on his deal, Simmons still would have two years left on his rookie deal and the 2017 rookies would still have 3 years left on their deals. Noel making 20 million per the next 4 years, would have minimal impact on anything the 76ers plan to get accomplished.

20M less for Colangelo to spend doesn't sound like the worst thing in the world to me.

[eskimo]

I think the new CBA makes it even harder to let a talent like Noel go. The reason is that it became much harder to acquire stars in FA. You have to draft them or get them after their primes are done now. Since Noel still has that potential it's really hard to let him go for nothing after the first 2 seasons he has put up defensively. He has already shown he can be very productive with a PnR guard and he is a unique defensive force in the league to combat small ball.