2016-2017 College Basketball / '17 NBA Draft Thread Volume 2

[LloydFree]

Well it's the end of February. Is there anyone who has drastically changed their minds on players since the start of the college season?

I would say yes. This is what I wrote in June:

Yeah, Tatum/Fox are my guys in the early going. If Tatum can show some extended range I think he goes #1. Haven't formed an opinion of Fultz for now.

Zero interest in Lonzo Ball. Josh Jackson's shot also needs an overhaul and is a year or so older than his classmates (19).

I'm still high on Tatum, but lower on Fox. I thought Tatum would be a much more efficient scorer though. I'd probably take Fultz #1 at this time, so my opinion has solidified on him. But my concern in June was his lack of explosive athleticism, which is still a big concern for me and something that'll be a big hurdle for him becoming an all-star level player.

Ball has risen a ton for me. I'd take him top 3-4 now whereas in June I would not have taken him top 10 due to his horrendous looking shot (which amazingly has gone in this season). Still concerned about Jackson's shot, but less so since he's shown he can do everything else.

I had this take on December 1st:

Dennis Smith Jr would have to start doing some really special stuff for me to even think about spending a top 3 pick on him. He plays hard and is tough, but he's a pudgy 6'1 SG, coming off serious injury, with a questionabe perimeter shot and a 6'3 wingspan. I don't see the upside in Smith, but I could be missing something.

So after all that, now I have the guy #3 on my board.

[Mik317]

based off of my very small viewing sample (dat Vivek scouting swag yall); there are about 10 dudes in this draft I am more than ok w/ drafting...which makes me fine with whatever happens lottery wise.

In no order (but kinda in order)

Jackson- Can't shoot, But plays so hard doe. midrange game is coming along which is great for his longterm shooting. He would give us another perimeter defender and that would be crazy.

Monk - Yeah all he does is score touchdow....er baskets...which is a concern. You never want to add another offense only guy BUT he's too athletic to not be just ok defensively at worst. He is also a perfect fit for what we ideally want for Simmons. he also ticks all the boxes of players I irrationally like....which is more of a red flag than anything.

Fultz - Haven't seen much and his teammates are eye cancer so i never will. But dude is still talented. He can score which we need. He can play offball..which we need. Wonder about his defense but eh.

Ball - Intriguing prospect. Not sure if that shot translate but if it does..then he fits alot of the same boxes as Fultz (sans perhap creating for himself). Also unsung...he will come w/ a lot of hype which like it or not does tend to help a bit.

Smith - Probably not the best fit with Simmons. But lord we need PGs badly (even if TJ da Gawd).... athleticism seems to be returning which is neat. (does take up to two years afterall).

Fox - Worst fit but dude is fast as **** and has great defensive potential. If he ever learns how to shoot he could be deadly.

Tatum - Questionable fit but he seems to be able to get his own shot. Duke products doe... >_>

Issac - Makes perfect sense in theory. needs to eat a few sandwhiches tho. May be a bit too tweenerific too. But ideally he's perfect.

Mitchell - Sleeper. Pretty much what I wish Monk can become, he is already closer to that. Probably doesn't leave tho since he isn't mocked that high.

Frank - Not going to lie. I have only read about him. But again IN THEORY he is what we could use.

As of right now, we come away with one of these guys and I am happy with that.

its still early tho...and I know nothing like Jon Snow.

[cksdayoff]

I cant see Mitchell staying another year after their tournament run

[yourewrong]

Well it's the end of February. Is there anyone who has drastically changed their minds on players since the start of the college season?

Still very hesitant with Ball, Smith, and Fultz trio for defensive reasons, but other different reasons too.

I have pretty much stayed on the Tatum bandwagon throughout because his form was too good not to be at least a 35% 3FG. Also his FT has steadily been high.

A little down on Isaac at the moment. He strikes me as a full time PF. Nothing wrong with that, and he could end up great because he has the talent, but his frame scares me.

I'm jumping on the Mitchell bandwagon because he works as a PG when on our team.

My top 10 board for the Sixers is (very contingent on the players they bring in too):

1. Josh Jackson
2. Jayson Tatum
3. De'Aaron Fox
4. Jonathan Isaac
5. Markelle Fultz
6. Dennis Smith Jr
7. Donovan Mitchell
8. Lauri Markkanen
9. Malik Monk
10. Lonzo Ball

And I only put Ball in at 10 to show that I didn't forget about him. I'd actually put him lower because I don't trust his shot or defense ever at the next level.

Ball should be better defensively than DSJ, and his shot, while ugly, has great rotation. I can't understand putting him this low, he compares REALLY favorably to guys like Stockton, Kidd, and CP3

[yourewrong]

Had a little time to kill so threw together a top-10 BB for ****

1. Ball - Great size, high level of skill, with a BBIQ on par with the NBA's all time great distributors. Underrated scorer, and his advanced metrics give reason to be optimistic about his defense.

2. Fultz - Harden fused with Wade, almost impossible that he stays healthy and isn't at least a good pro.

3. Jackson - Would be #1 for me if I thought that shot was for real, but I don't. He's a lot of what people convinced themselves that Andrew Wiggins was pre-draft after that lousy year at KU. Reminds me of a more upside-y version of Shawn Marion with a worse shot.

4. Lauri - His FT% puts him in elite company. Has a legitimate chance to end his career as the 2nd best shooting 7-footer of all time behind Dirk. Versatile, efficient scorer, and mobile enough to defend on the perimeter. Needs a rim protector alongside him. PUT THIS MAN NEXT TO EMBIID.

5. Monk - Godlike shooter with sneakily good vision and passing skills, who will in all likelihood be a bad defender and rebounder in the NBA. Great feel for the game on offense.

6. Fox - Great passer, ballhandler, defender, and overall athlete. FT% gives reason for optimism regarding his shot. Wealthy man's Elfrid Payton (if the shot doesn't develop).

7. Isaac - Amazing defender,offensive is bad off the dribble, a poor passer, and his low usage rate in college gives me pause when trying to project his future outlook on the offensive end.

8. Tatum - Confusing prospect; thought for sure entering the season that he would be a black hole - no defense type, ala Jabari or Melo, but his defense has not only been randomly great but it's even been ahead of his offense. Whether that's for real, I have no clue. Offensively his FT%, flashes of brilliance passing the ball, and volume scoring are exciting, but the 3pt shooting, offensive rebounding woes, and turnover rate are concerning.

9. Giles - Doesn't seem to fully trust the knee, doesn't yet understand defensive concepts, and has poor instincts. Physical profile and past body of work makes him a worthwhile gamble in this range imo

10. Bridges - Contingent on whether the shot continues to fall.

Guys I'm lower on than consensus:
DSJ - No conceivable path to being a better pro than Ball. Not hard for me to see him developing into a fine NBA pro, but his profile is littered with red flags. Has good vision, ballhandling, and shooting, but his BBIQ is bad, overrated athlete, poor length for the position, not-great passing, and lazy defender.

Frank - Terrible player in a less-than-stellar league. Has some defensive upside, but offensively is a zero. I think he's Exum with a slightly more promising J but even less playmaking potential

[LloydFree]

Well it's the end of February. Is there anyone who has drastically changed their minds on players since the start of the college season?

Still very hesitant with Ball, Smith, and Fultz trio for defensive reasons, but other different reasons too.

I have pretty much stayed on the Tatum bandwagon throughout because his form was too good not to be at least a 35% 3FG. Also his FT has steadily been high.

A little down on Isaac at the moment. He strikes me as a full time PF. Nothing wrong with that, and he could end up great because he has the talent, but his frame scares me.

I'm jumping on the Mitchell bandwagon because he works as a PG when on our team.

My top 10 board for the Sixers is (very contingent on the players they bring in too):

1. Josh Jackson
2. Jayson Tatum
3. De'Aaron Fox
4. Jonathan Isaac
5. Markelle Fultz
6. Dennis Smith Jr
7. Donovan Mitchell
8. Lauri Markkanen
9. Malik Monk
10. Lonzo Ball

And I only put Ball in at 10 to show that I didn't forget about him. I'd actually put him lower because I don't trust his shot or defense ever at the next level.

Ball should be better defensively than DSJ, and his shot, while ugly, has great rotation. I can't understand putting him this low, he compares REALLY favorably to guys like Stockton, Kidd, and CP3

Ball is shooting 70℅ on 2pt fgs... Think about that.

[Arsenal]

Still very hesitant with Ball, Smith, and Fultz trio for defensive reasons, but other different reasons too.

I have pretty much stayed on the Tatum bandwagon throughout because his form was too good not to be at least a 35% 3FG. Also his FT has steadily been high.

A little down on Isaac at the moment. He strikes me as a full time PF. Nothing wrong with that, and he could end up great because he has the talent, but his frame scares me.

I'm jumping on the Mitchell bandwagon because he works as a PG when on our team.

My top 10 board for the Sixers is (very contingent on the players they bring in too):

1. Josh Jackson
2. Jayson Tatum
3. De'Aaron Fox
4. Jonathan Isaac
5. Markelle Fultz
6. Dennis Smith Jr
7. Donovan Mitchell
8. Lauri Markkanen
9. Malik Monk
10. Lonzo Ball

And I only put Ball in at 10 to show that I didn't forget about him. I'd actually put him lower because I don't trust his shot or defense ever at the next level.

Ball should be better defensively than DSJ, and his shot, while ugly, has great rotation. I can't understand putting him this low, he compares REALLY favorably to guys like Stockton, Kidd, and CP3

Ball is shooting 70℅ on 2pt fgs... Think about that.

Lonzo Ball is the perfect fit for the Morey-ball era. The guy is just too smart to take inefficient shots.

[yourewrong]

Ball should be better defensively than DSJ, and his shot, while ugly, has great rotation. I can't understand putting him this low, he compares REALLY favorably to guys like Stockton, Kidd, and CP3

Ball is shooting 70℅ on 2pt fgs... Think about that.

Lonzo Ball is the perfect fit for the Morey-ball era. The guy is just too smart to take inefficient shots.

Yup, I'd love him here and his dad would fit perfectly, especially if Okafor is gone

[Negrodamus]

Well it's the end of February. Is there anyone who has drastically changed their minds on players since the start of the college season?

Still very hesitant with Ball, Smith, and Fultz trio for defensive reasons, but other different reasons too.

I have pretty much stayed on the Tatum bandwagon throughout because his form was too good not to be at least a 35% 3FG. Also his FT has steadily been high.

A little down on Isaac at the moment. He strikes me as a full time PF. Nothing wrong with that, and he could end up great because he has the talent, but his frame scares me.

I'm jumping on the Mitchell bandwagon because he works as a PG when on our team.

My top 10 board for the Sixers is (very contingent on the players they bring in too):

1. Josh Jackson
2. Jayson Tatum
3. De'Aaron Fox
4. Jonathan Isaac
5. Markelle Fultz
6. Dennis Smith Jr
7. Donovan Mitchell
8. Lauri Markkanen
9. Malik Monk
10. Lonzo Ball

And I only put Ball in at 10 to show that I didn't forget about him. I'd actually put him lower because I don't trust his shot or defense ever at the next level.

Ball should be better defensively than DSJ, and his shot, while ugly, has great rotation. I can't understand putting him this low, he compares REALLY favorably to guys like Stockton, Kidd, and CP3

Because he doesn't have a pull up jumper to speak of. He has a crazy quick launch that is impressive. I don't see him being terribly effective as anything other than a spot up shooter.

If we're going to cite his ability at the rim, then we cannot tear down Fox because of his frame. If Fox will struggle at finishing in the NBA, so will Ball.

On top of all of this, Ball is shooting 67% from FT. He's someone I wouldn't even want in games late in the fourth quarter because he's a liability at the line. Who is going to help him with that? No one can adjust that form for the better because it's so insane.

Once again, I can forgive Simmons for having a crazy shot because he's 6'11 and passes like an elite guard. Ball is a skinny PG that's mediocre at defense.

[Arsenal]

Still very hesitant with Ball, Smith, and Fultz trio for defensive reasons, but other different reasons too.

I have pretty much stayed on the Tatum bandwagon throughout because his form was too good not to be at least a 35% 3FG. Also his FT has steadily been high.

A little down on Isaac at the moment. He strikes me as a full time PF. Nothing wrong with that, and he could end up great because he has the talent, but his frame scares me.

I'm jumping on the Mitchell bandwagon because he works as a PG when on our team.

My top 10 board for the Sixers is (very contingent on the players they bring in too):

1. Josh Jackson
2. Jayson Tatum
3. De'Aaron Fox
4. Jonathan Isaac
5. Markelle Fultz
6. Dennis Smith Jr
7. Donovan Mitchell
8. Lauri Markkanen
9. Malik Monk
10. Lonzo Ball

And I only put Ball in at 10 to show that I didn't forget about him. I'd actually put him lower because I don't trust his shot or defense ever at the next level.

Ball should be better defensively than DSJ, and his shot, while ugly, has great rotation. I can't understand putting him this low, he compares REALLY favorably to guys like Stockton, Kidd, and CP3

Because he doesn't have a pull up jumper to speak of. He has a crazy quick launch that is impressive. I don't see him being terribly effective as anything other than a spot up shooter.

If we're going to cite his ability at the rim, then we cannot tear down Fox because of his frame. If Fox will struggle at finishing in the NBA, so will Ball.

On top of all of this, Ball is shooting 67% from FT. He's someone I wouldn't even want in games late in the fourth quarter because he's a liability at the line. Who is going to help him with that? No one can adjust that form for the better because it's so insane.

Once again, I can forgive Simmons for having a crazy shot because he's 6'11 and passes like an elite guard. Ball is a skinny PG that's mediocre at defense.

I believe Ball was an 80% free throw shooter in high school. His current low FT% is likely just small sample size variance. I expect him to shoot > 80% FT% and > 40% 3P% in the NBA after a few years to acclimate.

You should have far more worries about Josh Jackson's shooting. I love him, but I doubt he'll ever be a good shooter.

[Negrodamus]

Ball should be better defensively than DSJ, and his shot, while ugly, has great rotation. I can't understand putting him this low, he compares REALLY favorably to guys like Stockton, Kidd, and CP3

Because he doesn't have a pull up jumper to speak of. He has a crazy quick launch that is impressive. I don't see him being terribly effective as anything other than a spot up shooter.

If we're going to cite his ability at the rim, then we cannot tear down Fox because of his frame. If Fox will struggle at finishing in the NBA, so will Ball.

On top of all of this, Ball is shooting 67% from FT. He's someone I wouldn't even want in games late in the fourth quarter because he's a liability at the line. Who is going to help him with that? No one can adjust that form for the better because it's so insane.

Once again, I can forgive Simmons for having a crazy shot because he's 6'11 and passes like an elite guard. Ball is a skinny PG that's mediocre at defense.

I believe Ball was an 80% free throw shooter in high school. His current low FT% is likely just small sample size variance. I expect him to shoot > 80% FT% and > 40% 3P% in the NBA after a few years to acclimate.

You should have far more worries about Josh Jackson's shooting. I love him, but I doubt he'll ever be a good shooter.

I'd be concerned with Jackson as a shooter except I'm not drafting him to be a shooter. Ball is a guy who needs to be able to pump fake, blow past a guy, pull up from 18 feet and hit an open jumper.

Maybe he can do it, but I'm not sure how that would look with his funky form.

Jackson plays incredible defense that has been winning Kansas games. He's also starting to hit from outside (36%) and his form isn't unprecedented.

[Arsenal]

Because he doesn't have a pull up jumper to speak of. He has a crazy quick launch that is impressive. I don't see him being terribly effective as anything other than a spot up shooter.

If we're going to cite his ability at the rim, then we cannot tear down Fox because of his frame. If Fox will struggle at finishing in the NBA, so will Ball.

On top of all of this, Ball is shooting 67% from FT. He's someone I wouldn't even want in games late in the fourth quarter because he's a liability at the line. Who is going to help him with that? No one can adjust that form for the better because it's so insane.

Once again, I can forgive Simmons for having a crazy shot because he's 6'11 and passes like an elite guard. Ball is a skinny PG that's mediocre at defense.

I believe Ball was an 80% free throw shooter in high school. His current low FT% is likely just small sample size variance. I expect him to shoot > 80% FT% and > 40% 3P% in the NBA after a few years to acclimate.

You should have far more worries about Josh Jackson's shooting. I love him, but I doubt he'll ever be a good shooter.

I'd be concerned with Jackson as a shooter except I'm not drafting him to be a shooter. Ball is a guy who needs to be able to pump fake, blow past a guy, pull up from 18 feet and hit an open jumper.

Maybe he can do it, but I'm not sure how that would look with his funky form.

Jackson plays incredible defense that has been winning Kansas games. He's also starting to hit from outside (36%) and his form isn't unprecedented.

Ball can take the midrange if he's open. However, he knows that's the worst shot in basketball, so he rarely shoots it. Usually better to keep the offense moving until you can get a layup or an open 3-ball. To me, his reluctance to take mid-range pullup jumpers is a major plus, not a minus.

I mean really, the guy has a ridiculous 67.8 TS%. That's insanely good. It's not worth taking a bunch of low efficiency midrange jumpers and torpedoing your (and your team's) efficiency in doing so.

[LloydFree]

Ball is shooting 70℅ on 2pt fgs... Think about that.

Lonzo Ball is the perfect fit for the Morey-ball era. The guy is just too smart to take inefficient shots.

Yup, I'd love him here and his dad would fit perfectly, especially if Okafor is gone

Yeah, people are laughing at his dad right now because of all his hyperbole, but Lonzo Ball's Freshmen #'s are as good as Steph's Junior #'s, across the board (except the FT℅ and attempts). Maybe dad knows something.

[Negrodamus]

I believe Ball was an 80% free throw shooter in high school. His current low FT% is likely just small sample size variance. I expect him to shoot > 80% FT% and > 40% 3P% in the NBA after a few years to acclimate.

You should have far more worries about Josh Jackson's shooting. I love him, but I doubt he'll ever be a good shooter.

I'd be concerned with Jackson as a shooter except I'm not drafting him to be a shooter. Ball is a guy who needs to be able to pump fake, blow past a guy, pull up from 18 feet and hit an open jumper.

Maybe he can do it, but I'm not sure how that would look with his funky form.

Jackson plays incredible defense that has been winning Kansas games. He's also starting to hit from outside (36%) and his form isn't unprecedented.

Ball can take the midrange if he's open. However, he knows that's the worst shot in basketball, so he rarely shoots it. Usually better to keep the offense moving until you can get a layup or an open 3-ball. To me, his reluctance to take mid-range pullup jumpers is a major plus, not a minus.

I mean really, the guy has a ridiculous 67.8 TS%. That's insanely good. It's not worth taking a bunch of low efficiency midrange jumpers and torpedoing your (and your team's) efficiency in doing so.

Yea, I don't know yet. Guess we'll just have to see how he responds at the next level. I, personally, don't think he's going to be able to launch that stroke off efficiently against the best of the best.

[Arsenal]

I'd be concerned with Jackson as a shooter except I'm not drafting him to be a shooter. Ball is a guy who needs to be able to pump fake, blow past a guy, pull up from 18 feet and hit an open jumper.

Maybe he can do it, but I'm not sure how that would look with his funky form.

Jackson plays incredible defense that has been winning Kansas games. He's also starting to hit from outside (36%) and his form isn't unprecedented.

Ball can take the midrange if he's open. However, he knows that's the worst shot in basketball, so he rarely shoots it. Usually better to keep the offense moving until you can get a layup or an open 3-ball. To me, his reluctance to take mid-range pullup jumpers is a major plus, not a minus.

I mean really, the guy has a ridiculous 67.8 TS%. That's insanely good. It's not worth taking a bunch of low efficiency midrange jumpers and torpedoing your (and your team's) efficiency in doing so.

Yea, I don't know yet. Guess we'll just have to see how he responds at the next level. I, personally, don't think he's going to be able to launch that stroke off efficiently against the best of the best.

I think teams will have to defend him out to ~ 28 feet ala Curry and Thompson in order to ensure his shot is properly contested. That kind of gravity will open up the floor for everyone else, especially with Ball and Simmons' passing skills.

[yourewrong]

Lonzo Ball is the perfect fit for the Morey-ball era. The guy is just too smart to take inefficient shots.

Yup, I'd love him here and his dad would fit perfectly, especially if Okafor is gone

Yeah, people are laughing at his dad right now because of all his hyperbole, but Lonzo Ball's Freshmen #'s are as good as Steph's Junior #'s, across the board (except the FT℅ and attempts). Maybe dad knows something.

he also said in that same interview that all his sons will be NBA all stars. I'd bet my entire family that LiAngelo Ball's only trip to an AS game will be to watch his brother

[Unbreakable99]

Lonzo Ball is the perfect fit for the Morey-ball era. The guy is just too smart to take inefficient shots.

Yup, I'd love him here and his dad would fit perfectly, especially if Okafor is gone

Yeah, people are laughing at his dad right now because of all his hyperbole, but Lonzo Ball's Freshmen #'s are as good as Steph's Junior #'s, across the board (except the FT℅ and attempts). Maybe dad knows something.

Agree. Now I disagee with his dad that Ball is better than Steph right now but I have no problem with his dad. He's telling his kids to reach for the stars and strive to be the best. If Ball never becomes as good as Steph then no big deal. Why not strive to be better than Steph. Yeah NBA players will try to make his dad eat his words and may go extra hard at Ball next season but it is what it is. If Ball is really good he will overcome it.

[yourewrong]

Yup, I'd love him here and his dad would fit perfectly, especially if Okafor is gone

Yeah, people are laughing at his dad right now because of all his hyperbole, but Lonzo Ball's Freshmen #'s are as good as Steph's Junior #'s, across the board (except the FT℅ and attempts). Maybe dad knows something.

Agree. Now I disagee with his dad that Ball is better than Steph right now but I have no problem with his dad. He's telling his kids to reach for the stars and strive to be the best. If Ball never becomes as good as Steph then no big deal. Why not strive to be better than Steph. Yeah NBA players will try to make his dad eat his words and may go extra hard at Ball next season but it is what it is. If Ball is really good he will overcome it.

probably just how my dad my brought me up, but I'd rather just let my game do the talking. The only thing the guarantees, predictions, etc do for sure is add pressure, or at least that's how I always felt playing sports. Different people have different motivators though, so whatever works for Lonzo.

[Unbreakable99]

Yeah, people are laughing at his dad right now because of all his hyperbole, but Lonzo Ball's Freshmen #'s are as good as Steph's Junior #'s, across the board (except the FT℅ and attempts). Maybe dad knows something.

Agree. Now I disagee with his dad that Ball is better than Steph right now but I have no problem with his dad. He's telling his kids to reach for the stars and strive to be the best. If Ball never becomes as good as Steph then no big deal. Why not strive to be better than Steph. Yeah NBA players will try to make his dad eat his words and may go extra hard at Ball next season but it is what it is. If Ball is really good he will overcome it.

probably just how my dad my brought me up, but I'd rather just let my game do the talking. The only thing the guarantees, predictions, etc do for sure is add pressure, or at least that's how I always felt playing sports. Different people have different motivators though, so whatever works for Lonzo.

Yeah. You just said it. Everyone is different and raised differently. Maybe his doesn't affect Ball. Maybe it does. We don't know but we can't assume Ball doesn't like what his dad says or that he will crumble under the pressure his dad brings by talking about how good he is.

[mrfantast1c]

Yeah, people are laughing at his dad right now because of all his hyperbole, but Lonzo Ball's Freshmen #'s are as good as Steph's Junior #'s, across the board (except the FT℅ and attempts). Maybe dad knows something.

Steph can get his shot off whenever he wants, from anywhere on the floor. His release is so ridiculously quick, contested 3s are open 3s for him. Which IMO explains the difference in volume. I doubt that will ever be the case for Lonzo.

On a side note, i think sixers fans may be one of the most knowledgeable fan bases in the NBA. I don't comment often, but I check here and LB pretty much everyday. You guys always keep that fresh information coming.. Donovan Mitchell wasn't on my radar until a couple guys here started talking about him.. Keep up the good work!