2018 Pick Watch (Philly, LAL 1 or 6-30, etc)

[Kobblehead]

After several years in a row of disappointing big man prospects, I'm not counting on either of those guys until they go through a college season.

In the very least, Robert Williams is there. He proved himself as a franchise big caliber prospect and inexplicably went back for his sophomore year.

[76ciology]

I really think PG plays for LAL next season. They don't have their pick so they wouldn't want a losing record. Indy would trade him than to risk him for nothing. I expect Indy to leak out all these drooling offers for PG.

[76ciology]

Unless Josh Jackson turns into a bust, I'll be inclined to trade that pick. Specially if we're projected to select a center.

[Unbreakable99]

Unless Josh Jackson turns into a bust, I'll be inclined to trade that pick. Specially if we're projected to select a center.

Yeah. Next year is a big man draft. BC isn't going to draft a center after saying he's trying to build a team. I'm not worried about that. You can't play 2 Centers. If Holmes continues to improve there would be no need to draft a center with the first pick. That's also a reason why I'm willing to trade the Lakers pick to get back into the top 8 of this draft.

[HotelVitale]

I heard a recent interview where Magic said that he believes the major free agents this offseason will resign so he is looking forward to having enough cap room in 2018 to sign two major free agents.

I think this is huge because if that is the case then they are basically going into next season with the same squad + the new draft pick, but without lou Williams. If that is the case I think they are legitimately in the running for the worst overall record. At best they will be in the bottom 5 IMO

Two things:
--first they have $20-25m in cap space this year and will probably sign a couple guys to short contracts, no reason not to.
--second, even if they add Paul George around the deadline, the team has little depth and their rotation is basically young guys who are below average players overall. Barring huge comeback years from Mozgov and Deng, it's hard to see how this team is better than about 7th or 8th worst in the absolute best case.

[long range bomber]

I heard a recent interview where Magic said that he believes the major free agents this offseason will resign so he is looking forward to having enough cap room in 2018 to sign two major free agents.

I think this is huge because if that is the case then they are basically going into next season with the same squad + the new draft pick, but without lou Williams

If that is the case I think they are legitimately in the running for the worst overall record. At best they will be in the bottom 5 IMO

Now that they've got their picks (2017 and 2019) there's no basketball reason for them to use the upcoming season for anything more than player development.

Practically speaking, they could cut Young (that's not going to give them more wins and part of his $5.6 mil will remain on the payroll), they could trade Brewer to a contender for a second-round pick (but will have to take something back payroll wise). Clarkson has some value at $11.5 mil. Deng can't be moved. Mozgov can be moved (but only to the Sixers).

They need three roster spots for the 2, 28 and 33 picks. And they need to give all three playing time.

So, (1) 2, (2) 28, (3) 33, (4) Ingrim, (5) Russell, (6) Nance, (7) Zubac, (8) Randle, (9) Clarkson, (10) Black, (11) Deng, (12) Mozgov.

Counting Young and Brewer, they're at $81.5 mil. In June 2018, they'll be at $47.5 mil not counting this year's haul - and have to commit to Randle or let him go.

I don't see them going out of their way to win games. We are in the East and have nothing to do with their future playoff prospects.

If the Lakers do just run it back with the same squad plus Alonzo then they could possibly just as bad in 2018 as they were in 2017. A lot of their 2017 wins came from their hot start when Lou and Nick young were lighting it up from deep and now they are both gone.

[HankTheTank]

After several years in a row of disappointing big man prospects, I'm not counting on either of those guys until they go through a college season.

In the very least, Robert Williams is there. He proved himself as a franchise big caliber prospect and inexplicably went back for his sophomore year.

Glad he went back in hindsight. He would look great sharing the 4 with Saric. May have fallen to the twolves this year, where he would be a menace.

[hookshot199]

I think this is huge because if that is the case then they are basically going into next season with the same squad + the new draft pick, but without lou Williams

If that is the case I think they are legitimately in the running for the worst overall record. At best they will be in the bottom 5 IMO

Now that they've got their picks (2017 and 2019) there's no basketball reason for them to use the upcoming season for anything more than player development.

Practically speaking, they could cut Young (that's not going to give them more wins and part of his $5.6 mil will remain on the payroll), they could trade Brewer to a contender for a second-round pick (but will have to take something back payroll wise). Clarkson has some value at $11.5 mil. Deng can't be moved. Mozgov can be moved (but only to the Sixers).

They need three roster spots for the 2, 28 and 33 picks. And they need to give all three playing time.

So, (1) 2, (2) 28, (3) 33, (4) Ingrim, (5) Russell, (6) Nance, (7) Zubac, (8) Randle, (9) Clarkson, (10) Black, (11) Deng, (12) Mozgov.

Counting Young and Brewer, they're at $81.5 mil. In June 2018, they'll be at $47.5 mil not counting this year's haul - and have to commit to Randle or let him go.

I don't see them going out of their way to win games. We are in the East and have nothing to do with their future playoff prospects.

If the Lakers do just run it back with the same squad plus Alonzo then they could possibly just as bad in 2018 as they were in 2017. A lot of their 2017 wins came from their hot start when Lou and Nick young were lighting it up from deep and now they are both gone.

Ingram and Russell are likely to improve. Randle is playing for a contract. But basically there's no incentive for them to deviate from their rebuild plan. They've got to decide who will be their core and second what their needs are moving forward. If the idea is to sign Paul George to $30-plus in 2018, then they surely don't want to tie up payroll.

Kupchak and Buss threw a Hail Mary with the Mozgov/Deng signings. I don't expect Magic to make the same mistake - although I wonder if Paul George will still be as effective three years hence.

[ckchen]

Frankly, I think it's pointless to just assume that Paul George leaves, and that he specifically leaves for LAL. Look, people can love their hometown team, but when huge dollars and other factors are on the line, who knows what will happen. People also seem to be forgetting that Indiana has to agree to a trade with the Lakers if that's what they think is inevitable. Right now, I don't even see how that happens without them including Clarkson and one of Russell or Ingram going the other way, because there's no way Indiana will take Deng or Mozgov to even out the salaries. So unless LAL wants to give up those guys, they will either take their chances and wait for the offseason and hope they can sign him for "free" - or they'll probably have to deal away at least two of their up and coming players just to get it done.

[ckchen]

Does OKC owe a 2018 lotto protected 1st to Utah? And I wonder if owing these picks will sway Presti's thinking at all if he has a hard time extending Westbrook? Could they just throw it all away and start from scratch and tank, knowing that they save themselves from conveying picks?

As for the Lakers, those weasels managed to get the number 2 pick... for the 3rd year in a row. It will be very rewarding to finally cash in that top 5 pick.

Never mind to this... OKC will almost certainly offer the DPVE to Westbrook now that he's eligible. And no way he turns that down. Hopefully this means the Sixers actually get a 1st from OKC in 2020.

I think that's a pretty good bet. If that pick were this year it would already have conveyed. One would hope that in the next 3 yrs as long as westbrook is on that team, they'll be a top 10 team. Frankly, the team they have around him is pretty terrible after Durant left. You would hope that through the draft and free agency, now that they know they're building around Westbrook, that team should only improve.

[the_process]

Does OKC owe a 2018 lotto protected 1st to Utah? And I wonder if owing these picks will sway Presti's thinking at all if he has a hard time extending Westbrook? Could they just throw it all away and start from scratch and tank, knowing that they save themselves from conveying picks?

As for the Lakers, those weasels managed to get the number 2 pick... for the 3rd year in a row. It will be very rewarding to finally cash in that top 5 pick.

Never mind to this... OKC will almost certainly offer the DPVE to Westbrook now that he's eligible. And no way he turns that down. Hopefully this means the Sixers actually get a 1st from OKC in 2020.

I think that's a pretty good bet. If that pick were this year it would already have conveyed. One would hope that in the next 3 yrs as long as westbrook is on that team, they'll be a top 10 team. Frankly, the team they have around him is pretty terrible after Durant left. You would hope that through the draft and free agency, now that they know they're building around Westbrook, that team should only improve.

We can hope. Presti had prime Durant and Westbrook and still refused to push all in, constantly trying to straddle the line between building for the future and winning now. Even as he had impending FA Durant he went and dealt Ibaka for Ilyasova, a pick, and Oladipo. If he finally decides to push then a pick could be coming the Sixers way.

[shawn_hemp]

Unless Josh Jackson turns into a bust, I'll be inclined to trade that pick. Specially if we're projected to select a center.

Yeah. Next year is a big man draft. BC isn't going to draft a center after saying he's trying to build a team. I'm not worried about that. You can't play 2 Centers. If Holmes continues to improve there would be no need to draft a center with the first pick. That's also a reason why I'm willing to trade the Lakers pick to get back into the top 8 of this draft.

I like Richaun's progress but he has a long way to go before being considered someone Id not draft a player like Bamba or Ayton over

[HankTheTank]

Unless Josh Jackson turns into a bust, I'll be inclined to trade that pick. Specially if we're projected to select a center.

Yeah. Next year is a big man draft. BC isn't going to draft a center after saying he's trying to build a team. I'm not worried about that. You can't play 2 Centers. If Holmes continues to improve there would be no need to draft a center with the first pick. That's also a reason why I'm willing to trade the Lakers pick to get back into the top 8 of this draft.

I like Richaun's progress but he has a long way to go before being considered someone Id not draft a player like Bamba or Ayton over

Agree, and I'm not above dreaming there is some 7'0 freak athlete on the horizon who is fluid enough to pair next to Embiid at 4, and could be our 5 if the unspeakable happens. KAT could have been that if the balls were good to us.

[Embiid P]

I really think PG plays for LAL next season. They don't have their pick so they wouldn't want a losing record. Indy would trade him than to risk him for nothing. I expect Indy to leak out all these drooling offers for PG.

I think it would make more sense for the Celtics to trade for PG than the Lakers especially with the way they are being embarrassed in the ECF.

I know that LA is his hometown but he has a better chance at winning a CHIP in Boston. The C's have more to offer the Pacers than the Lakers do plus it's no guarantee that the Lakers sign all these big name free agents they want to sign.

[Lakerman416]

Something you guys are forgetting is the Lakers have no reason to tank a single game next year. Sure the Lakers will probably be probably be in the bottom 6 around the all star break. But A LOT of teams will go into full tank mode around that time while the Lakers won't at all. That is why the Nets won so many of their final 20 games this year (wouldn't had won 2 of them if they had a protected pick). If the Lakers had a top 3 protected pick I think they would finish in the bottom 5, but because they don't and teams will be desperate to get a top 5 pick.. my guess is number 10. Which is still great for Philly.

[Ericb5]

Something you guys are forgetting is the Lakers have no reason to tank a single game next year. Sure the Lakers will probably be probably be in the bottom 6 around the all star break. But A LOT of teams will go into full tank mode around that time while the Lakers won't at all. That is why the Nets won so many of their final 20 games this year (wouldn't had won 2 of them if they had a protected pick). If the Lakers had a top 3 protected pick I think they would finish in the bottom 5, but because they don't and teams will be desperate to get a top 5 pick.. my guess is number 10. Which is still great for Philly.

That's certainly a possibility. I think 10 is about the worst case scenario for us, but you guys are going to be really young.

I think 1-3 is just as likely as 8-10, with a sweet spot in the 4-7 range. I really wanted in this year though.


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[Lakerman416]

Something you guys are forgetting is the Lakers have no reason to tank a single game next year. Sure the Lakers will probably be probably be in the bottom 6 around the all star break. But A LOT of teams will go into full tank mode around that time while the Lakers won't at all. That is why the Nets won so many of their final 20 games this year (wouldn't had won 2 of them if they had a protected pick). If the Lakers had a top 3 protected pick I think they would finish in the bottom 5, but because they don't and teams will be desperate to get a top 5 pick.. my guess is number 10. Which is still great for Philly.

That's certainly a possibility. I think 10 is about the worst case scenario for us, but you guys are going to be really young.

I think 1-3 is just as likely as 8-10, with a sweet spot in the 4-7 range. I really wanted in this year though.


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Yeah but young players get better with time. Look at how much better Ingram and Zubac were in the second half compared to the first half. Deangelo was dealing with injuries all year that hurt his play, that shouldn't be an issue next year. But again, the reason why I think it is impossible for the Lakers to finish bottom three is because of how pathetic teams are the final month or two of the season. While 30 percent of teams are putting their worst possible roster in the floor the Lakers will be doing the opposite. I just don't see a top 5 pick being possible unless they hit the lottery. Also I'm sure the Lakers will add some vets on 1 year deals as well. Even if they have to overpay by a lot to keep it at 1 year.

[Kolkmania]

Something you guys are forgetting is the Lakers have no reason to tank a single game next year. Sure the Lakers will probably be probably be in the bottom 6 around the all star break. But A LOT of teams will go into full tank mode around that time while the Lakers won't at all. That is why the Nets won so many of their final 20 games this year (wouldn't had won 2 of them if they had a protected pick). If the Lakers had a top 3 protected pick I think they would finish in the bottom 5, but because they don't and teams will be desperate to get a top 5 pick.. my guess is number 10. Which is still great for Philly.

That's certainly a possibility. I think 10 is about the worst case scenario for us, but you guys are going to be really young.

I think 1-3 is just as likely as 8-10, with a sweet spot in the 4-7 range. I really wanted in this year though.


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Yeah but young players get better with time. Look at how much better Ingram and Zubac were in the second half compared to the first half. Deangelo was dealing with injuries all year that hurt his play, that shouldn't be an issue next year. But again, the reason why I think it is impossible for the Lakers to finish bottom three is because of how pathetic teams are the final month or two of the season. While 30 percent of teams are putting their worst possible roster in the floor the Lakers will be doing the opposite. I just don't see a top 5 pick being possible unless they hit the lottery. Also I'm sure the Lakers will add some vets on 1 year deals as well. Even if they have to overpay by a lot to keep it at 1 year.

What incentive did the Lakers have to win so many games late in the season? Front offices tank, players don't, they play to win and earn money. We heard you guys tell us all year that the Lakers will be competing for a play off spot and finishing lower than 30 wins would be ridiculous.
An extremely young core consisting of Ball, Ingram, Russel and Nance isn't impressive to me as well. You guys lost positive contributors in Lou Williams and Nick Young and you can only overpay 1 or 2 vets on short term contracts for 25 million dollars. Think the Lakers are similar to the Suns, Nets and Kings in terms of talent.

[LordCovington33]

Something you guys are forgetting is the Lakers have no reason to tank a single game next year. Sure the Lakers will probably be probably be in the bottom 6 around the all star break. But A LOT of teams will go into full tank mode around that time while the Lakers won't at all. That is why the Nets won so many of their final 20 games this year (wouldn't had won 2 of them if they had a protected pick). If the Lakers had a top 3 protected pick I think they would finish in the bottom 5, but because they don't and teams will be desperate to get a top 5 pick.. my guess is number 10. Which is still great for Philly.

That's certainly a possibility. I think 10 is about the worst case scenario for us, but you guys are going to be really young.

I think 1-3 is just as likely as 8-10, with a sweet spot in the 4-7 range. I really wanted in this year though.


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Yeah but young players get better with time. Look at how much better Ingram and Zubac were in the second half compared to the first half. Deangelo was dealing with injuries all year that hurt his play, that shouldn't be an issue next year. But again, the reason why I think it is impossible for the Lakers to finish bottom three is because of how pathetic teams are the final month or two of the season. While 30 percent of teams are putting their worst possible roster in the floor the Lakers will be doing the opposite. I just don't see a top 5 pick being possible unless they hit the lottery. Also I'm sure the Lakers will add some vets on 1 year deals as well. Even if they have to overpay by a lot to keep it at 1 year.

The lakers were giving a lot of development minutes to the young core this year. They are not going to play lots of vets just to avoid giving us a high pick. That would hurt their team's long-term outlook. The young kids will continue to get significant minutes. Rookies have little impact (Embiid an exception). So if they give Ball lots of minutes, I don't think it will result in lots of wins. Ball is not a great defender. A Ball-Russell backcourt is going to leak lots of points. I like Ingram, but he is a couple of years away from having any impact.

[the_process]

A Ball-Russell backcourt all year long smells like 25 wins to me. Then again, I'm far lower on Lonzo than most people are.