2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[M2J]

I think he's a better ball handler with more athleticism and general agility than Hield. Doesn't mean he won't be more than just a shooter at the NBA level though, but I think his potential is much higher than Hield's ever was.

I agree...I have little doubt he can reach DLo level of player, who has an all star season and has put up good numbers before. He could certainly surpass that, but...meh

[Black Mage]

After some sleuthing, I was able to find out that the gms and teams lukewarm on Ace after combine and interviews had area codes originating from Salt Lake City, Charlotte, New Orleans and DC..

[Arsenal]

Here's what I was looking for re: Ace's defense:

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If these stats are correct, that shows insane defensive potential. I also saw a stat somewhere that the team's NET rating was +20 when Ace was on the floor versus off the floor. If someone finds that stat they should post it here.

[sodmoraes]

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[Iverson Armband]

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This is one instance where I knew Daryl wasn’t lying.

[mjkvol]

Oh wait, he's a Leo? I'm in! [He said, like a sarcastic prick]

That was a really funny line you ruined with the unnecessary last part.

[ProcessDoctor]

Ace Bailey lower end outcome comparisons and their respective class ranks if their careers ended today (superior players listed):

#7 in 2012: Harrison Barnes - 6th, 7th, or 8th (Davis, Beal, Lillard, Drummond?, Crowder?, Draymond, Middleton)
#1 in 2014: Andrew Wiggins - 4th, 5th, or 6th (Embiid, Gordon?, Randle?, LaVine, Jokic)
#2 in 2016: Brandon Ingram - 4th, 5th, or 6th (Simmons?, Jaylen, J. Murray?, Sabonis, Siakam)
#14 in 2018: Michael Porter Jr. - 7th or 8th (Ayton?, Luka, Jackson Jr., Trae, Mikal, SGA, Brunson)

[Black Mage]

[x]

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This is one instance where I knew Daryl wasn’t lying.

Trading the pick for a veteran outside of Giannis never made a sense. It's throwing good money after bad. If you trade #3 for Durant (last yr of his deal) and it fails b/c Joel is never healthy enough the team is set back at least 3 years (1 for 2026, 1 to lose 2027, rookie season of new prospects 2028). Morey loses his job immediately.

Keeping #3, as long as it looks like you made a good pick, keeps your job if the reason the team misses playoffs or doesn't go deep into the playoffs b/c of Joel's health.

[Kobblehead]

Tre Johnson: plus length, above average shooting
Ace Bailey: plus length, below average shooting
Kon Knueppel: negative length, above average shooting
V.J. Edgecombe: negative length, below average shooting

I think Tre is my preference right now. Currently, this is my ranking. Might even be a tie between Ace and Nips for #2. Nips' size and shooting is HIGHLY appealing to me.

[stormi]

We got last years Tre Johnson out of UDFA

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[stormi]

https://www.phillyvoice.com/sixers-news-analysis-nba-mock-draft-rumors-tre-johnson-stats-highlights-interview-player-comparison-rutgers-ahmed-jama/

Tre is just Buddy Hield. We have to be real about him.

Entire query of drafted FRPs since '08 with Tre's lack of passing (<20% assist), lack of offensive rebounding (<=2%), STL (<=2%), DPBM (<=1):

- Nik Stauskas
- Cam Thomas
- John Jenkins
- Jerome Robinson
- Jett Howard
- Kira Lewis
- Malachi Flynn
- Tre Mann

Loser archetype.

[Negrodamus]

Ace Bailey lower end outcome comparisons and their respective class ranks if their careers ended today (superior players listed):

#7 in 2012: Harrison Barnes - 6th, 7th, or 8th (Davis, Beal, Lillard, Drummond?, Crowder?, Draymond, Middleton)
#1 in 2014: Andrew Wiggins - 4th, 5th, or 6th (Embiid, Gordon?, Randle?, LaVine, Jokic)
#2 in 2016: Brandon Ingram - 4th, 5th, or 6th (Simmons?, Jaylen, J. Murray?, Sabonis, Siakam)
#14 in 2018: Michael Porter Jr. - 7th or 8th (Ayton?, Luka, Jackson Jr., Trae, Mikal, SGA, Brunson)

Barnes: .379 FTr drafted year
Wiggins: .538 FTr
Ingram: .351 FTr
MPJ: .300 FTr (but played like 3 games)


Almost any star is going to have above average .300 FTr

[Iverson Armband]

https://www.phillyvoice.com/sixers-news-analysis-nba-mock-draft-rumors-tre-johnson-stats-highlights-interview-player-comparison-rutgers-ahmed-jama/

Tre is just Buddy Hield. We have to be real about him.

Entire query of drafted FRPs since '08 with Tre's lack of passing (<20% assist), lack of offensive rebounding (<=2%), STL (<=2%), DPBM (<=1):

- Nik Stauskas
- Cam Thomas
- John Jenkins
- Jerome Robinson
- Jett Howard
- Kira Lewis
- Malachi Flynn
- Tre Mann

Loser archetype.

Tre Johnson literally had a historic freshman season at Texas. Not even taking in to account that only about 2 on that list are even comparable in size, none of them displayed the shooting, or playmaking ability TJ has flashed and is growing in to. I’ll give you the Cam Johnson comparison because I think that’s fair. I don’t agreee with it, but it’s fair.

Reading too much in to analytics isn’t good either. Your eyes tell you he was clearly better than everyone on that list as a freshman. A lot of those guys played 2+ years.

[stormi]

https://www.phillyvoice.com/sixers-news-analysis-nba-mock-draft-rumors-tre-johnson-stats-highlights-interview-player-comparison-rutgers-ahmed-jama/

Tre is just Buddy Hield. We have to be real about him.

Entire query of drafted FRPs since '08 with Tre's lack of passing (<20% assist), lack of offensive rebounding (<=2%), STL (<=2%), DPBM (<=1):

- Nik Stauskas
- Cam Thomas
- John Jenkins
- Jerome Robinson
- Jett Howard
- Kira Lewis
- Malachi Flynn
- Tre Mann

Loser archetype.

Tre Johnson literally had a historic freshman season at Texas. Not even taking in to account that only about 2 on that list are even comparable in size, none of them displayed the shooting, or playmaking ability TJ has flashed and is growing in to. I’ll give you the Cam Johnson comparison because I think that’s fair. I don’t agreee with it, but it’s fair.

Reading too much in to analytics isn’t good either. Your eyes tell you he was clearly better than everyone on that list in college.

HoopMixapeFC culture.

I put a lot of value on ancillary skills and the fact that Tre will never be able to impact the game when he isn't shooting the basketball & is a liability defensively is the easiest archetypal fade around.

Especially with premium draft capital.

[Negrodamus]

https://www.phillyvoice.com/sixers-news-analysis-nba-mock-draft-rumors-tre-johnson-stats-highlights-interview-player-comparison-rutgers-ahmed-jama/

Tre is just Buddy Hield. We have to be real about him.

Entire query of drafted FRPs since '08 with Tre's lack of passing (<20% assist), lack of offensive rebounding (<=2%), STL (<=2%), DPBM (<=1):

- Nik Stauskas
- Cam Thomas
- John Jenkins
- Jerome Robinson
- Jett Howard
- Kira Lewis
- Malachi Flynn
- Tre Mann

Loser archetype.

OReb seems to knock a few off the list. Jamal Murray is his absolute ceiling which isn’t bad but Jamal was a nasty ball handler coming into Kentucky and even the league. Tre seems like a fine ball handler.

[stormi]

https://www.phillyvoice.com/sixers-news-analysis-nba-mock-draft-rumors-tre-johnson-stats-highlights-interview-player-comparison-rutgers-ahmed-jama/

Tre is just Buddy Hield. We have to be real about him.

Entire query of drafted FRPs since '08 with Tre's lack of passing (<20% assist), lack of offensive rebounding (<=2%), STL (<=2%), DPBM (<=1):

- Nik Stauskas
- Cam Thomas
- John Jenkins
- Jerome Robinson
- Jett Howard
- Kira Lewis
- Malachi Flynn
- Tre Mann

Loser archetype.

OReb seems to knock a few off the list. Jamal Murray is his absolute ceiling which isn’t bad but Jamal was a nasty ball handler coming into Kentucky and even the league. Tre seems like a fine ball handler.

OReb quantifies hustle and heart.

Some got it, others don't

[ProcessDoctor]

Ace Bailey lower end outcome comparisons and their respective class ranks if their careers ended today (superior players listed):

#7 in 2012: Harrison Barnes - 6th, 7th, or 8th (Davis, Beal, Lillard, Drummond?, Crowder?, Draymond, Middleton)
#1 in 2014: Andrew Wiggins - 4th, 5th, or 6th (Embiid, Gordon?, Randle?, LaVine, Jokic)
#2 in 2016: Brandon Ingram - 4th, 5th, or 6th (Simmons?, Jaylen, J. Murray?, Sabonis, Siakam)
#14 in 2018: Michael Porter Jr. - 7th or 8th (Ayton?, Luka, Jackson Jr., Trae, Mikal, SGA, Brunson)

Barnes: .379 FTr drafted year
Wiggins: .538 FTr
Ingram: .351 FTr
MPJ: .300 FTr (but played like 3 games)


Almost any star is going to have above average .300 FTr

I’m not saying he’s a surefire star, but that he’s probably going to be a safer pick than is perceived.

FWIW, Jalen Brunson barely surpassed that .300 threshold and is now a FT merchant. I’m not ready to define exactly what caliber player Ace is yet.

[Kobblehead]

Ace's FTr is nearly identical's to Miles Bridges during his drafted year.

[Negrodamus]

Ace Bailey lower end outcome comparisons and their respective class ranks if their careers ended today (superior players listed):

#7 in 2012: Harrison Barnes - 6th, 7th, or 8th (Davis, Beal, Lillard, Drummond?, Crowder?, Draymond, Middleton)
#1 in 2014: Andrew Wiggins - 4th, 5th, or 6th (Embiid, Gordon?, Randle?, LaVine, Jokic)
#2 in 2016: Brandon Ingram - 4th, 5th, or 6th (Simmons?, Jaylen, J. Murray?, Sabonis, Siakam)
#14 in 2018: Michael Porter Jr. - 7th or 8th (Ayton?, Luka, Jackson Jr., Trae, Mikal, SGA, Brunson)

Barnes: .379 FTr drafted year
Wiggins: .538 FTr
Ingram: .351 FTr
MPJ: .300 FTr (but played like 3 games)


Almost any star is going to have above average .300 FTr

I’m not saying he’s a surefire star, but that he’s probably going to be a safer pick than is perceived.

FWIW, Jalen Brunson barely surpassed that .300 threshold and is now a FT merchant. I’m not ready to define exactly what caliber player Ace is yet.

I always give grace if you’re a barely missing that mark. Ace (.243 FTr) ain’t even close. He’s allergic to contact and getting to the line. The outlier guys aren’t the ones we should be betting on. Even someone like Haliburton had magnificent defensive traits, reshooting percentages across the court, passing. I’m racking my brain at what Ace does at an elite level other than tough shot making (with bad percentages). His NBA career with be what either analytic heads point to or eye test heads point to for years.

[Jojothewhale]

Even someone like Haliburton had magnificent defensive traits, reshooting percentages across the court, passing.

We also had Haliburton being the best player on that U19 team with Cade, Jalen Green, Barnes, and Mobley on it. It’s such a weird prospect arc.

I’m willing to listen to other factors for Ace, but it’s got to be more than a high school writer saying he shot 90% from the line on an undetermined sample size.