Arsenal wrote:mjkvol wrote:Really interesting discussion on here, a lot more illuminating than much of the national media tripe which tends to echo the same stuff over and over.
A question for you guys who would rather swing for the fences just because we are picking at #3 for a prospective "high ceiling" player who is a longshot to ever reach that ceiling, like Ace Bailey - you would take the 1 in 20 chance that this kid becomes more than MPJ or worse, Michael Beasley, and is much more likely to be just a good 3&D guy at his peak than a legit "star" rather than a much more certain prospect whose floor appears to be a solid starter on a good team with the upside of being an elite role player. Why?
Is a very possibly wasted high pick a better bet in an uncertain draft like this one, with really only two players who seem like locks to be stars, than just picking the kid you believe has the best chance to succeed at the next level, just because it's at #3 rather than #6?
I would only entertain a trade down for more picks, not win-now players when this group is not winning anything now - unless "win now" means just making the playoffs. But the best part of a trade down to the 6-8 area is that Ace and Tre are likely gone and we can start thinking clearly about what kid has the best shot at being a great role player - which is exactly what this draft looks to be about after picks 1 and 2.
Flame away.
Role players don't move the needle. They're a dime a dozen, and a good GM has various means to acquire them.
What matters in the NBA is stars. And very high (top 5) picks are the best/easiest way to acquire them.
Getting a guy who can only "succeed" enough to be a starter or role player isn't worth the opportunity cost with a top pick.
The issue is that, on average, there are only about 5 All-Stars produced per draft. On top of that, only 2-3 of them are usually selected in the top 10. Furthermore, that list of All-Star players includes the likes of Ben Simmons, Bradley Beal, D'Angelo Russell, Andrew Wiggins, Kristaps Porzingis, Brandon Ingram, and Andre Drummond.
It's a game of threading the needle, and when you zoom out, even getting a good starter on a championship team with a top-10 pick (i.e. Gordon, KCP, J. Murry, H. Barnes) is on the higher end of potential outcomes.
I agree - aim for a star, but realize it's unlikely. Not trying to be a downer, just realistic.