yourewrong wrote:TTP wrote:yourewrong wrote:I think Bender compares favorably to the prospects that will be available at 3 this year. He fits pretty well next to Embiid and arguably has more upside than Monk/Isaac/Frank, and the rest of the names that are being thrown around as good fits on this roster. I think #3 for him straight up makes some sense for both sides. It may be slightly undervaluing 3, which is why we get back a good fit and relatively talented prospect in Ulis who is likely worth more than 2 seconds at this point
Hell no.
He wasn't even the #3 pick a year ago in a weaker draft and he just had a very poor rookie season. Even if he had performed at expectation (he didn't), the lost year of contract control makes him worth less now than a year ago. You're proposing that he actually gained value.
I doubt he's worth a top 10 pick right now.
I don't hold his rookie season production against him. Everyone knew he was raw coming out and he was the youngest player in the NBA last season
You should though.
If we assume that Bender had a range of outcomes, he's now lost the very highest percentile outcomes as possibilities (breaking out right away). It doesn't happen often that a young, raw rookie breaks out, but it happens occasionally (Porzingis being a recent example), and it makes up a nonzero percentage of value of a high lottery pick.
I'm not sure where Bender's rookie season lies on that range of potential outcomes, but I can't imagine it's particularly high, probably not even an above average outcome.
At minimum, some value is lost from losing a year of contract control.
Furthermore, the 3rd pick this year is almost certainly a more valuable pick than the 4th pick last year, so it's not enough for your argument to say that you aren't holding his rookie season against him. You actually have to argue that he's gained value from last season, enough to both offset the loss of a year of contract control and to bridge the gap from 4th pick in a weak draft to 3rd pick in a stronger draft. I don't believe anyone can rationally make that argument.