51X3RF4N wrote:Could he have traded Noel, without ever having seen Embiid play a single game? I think the focus was trying to trade Okafor, but not finding a market for him. So, eventually once Embiid showed what he's capable of, Noel became expendable.
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Embiid being on the roster should have had zero impact on Noel's trade, because of the simple fact that you're never going to trade Embiid.
The only way Embiid would be on the trading block is if he's broken down. But other teams know this, so they're going to assume that if Embiid is available, then he must be broken down, and thus wouldn't offer anything close to his value for him. There's arguably never been a player as binary as Embiid. If he's healthy, he's a hall of famer. If he's not, he's Greg Oden 2.0. You're never going to be able to move a player like that, and you're never going to get fair value if you try.
So you have to operate under the assumption that, regardless of Embiid's health, he's probably going to be on the roster for the foreseeable future.
Then the formula becomes "is Noel a player you believe in enough to match an offer." If yes, you keep him and match the offer. If no, you trade him for the best value you feel you can get. And if you did it over the last offseason, you might have gotten an actual pick.
This "insurance" talk is bogus. There is no insurance for Embiid. Noel is not going to give you half of what a healthy Embiid gives you. That's is like saying Marcus Camby is insurance for Hakeem Olajuwon. Put Marcus Camby on those Rockets teams in Hakeem's place and how many championships do you think they win?
If you swapped Noel in for Embiid, they probably don't make the move up to grab Fultz. They probably aren't thinking playoffs, but rather more asset accumulation.
The worst thing you could have done in this scenario is to let Noel's value continue to depreciate while having no desire to match his deal. BC essentially played himself with that deal.
Now thankfully, BC has made good deals since, and Hinkie stocked the cupboard so that one bad deal is not going to sink the team. But it was unmistakably a bad deal, and cannot be hand waved aside by claiming "it was the best available deal, we weren't going to re-sign him." If you weren't going to re-sign him, then you should have pitched deals earlier.